SHORT TERM: market pullback extends, DOW -110
Overnight the Asian markets were flat. European markets opened higher but closed -0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, but drifted lower entering the open. At the open the SPX traded at 1454, two points below yesterday’s 1456 close. After a bounce to SPX 1456 in the opening minutes the market headed lower. Just before noon the SPX hit 1442, became extremely oversold and tried to rally. At 1:30 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121009a.htm. At 3:00 the SPX had only rallied 5 points to 1447 and then headed lower again. Just before the close the SPX hit 1441 where it ended the day.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.55%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude rallied $2.85, Gold slid $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10:00, then the Budget deficit and the FED’s Beige book at 2:00. After the close a speech from FED governor Tarullo.
The market opened lower today, led by the Techs, and continued lower to test the OEW 1440 pivot range – medium term support. This two day decline, from friday’s SPX 1471 high to today’s 1441 low, is much larger than the two previous pullbacks of 14 and 18 points. While the SPX/DOW are both holding support, the NDX/NAZ did not and confirmed downtrends today. We are now in either a fragmented market, or the uptrend ended last friday. The OEW 1440 pivot range now takes on more significance, as does the SPX 1422/27 support area. Should the market drop below SPX 1422 the uptrend is probably over.
Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold this morning, bounced, and is now displaying a very slight positive divergence. The short term OEW charts swung into negative mode shortly after the open, with the swing level now around SPX 1452. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
this could be the turning point for aapl, in 60 min chart it is developing a possible IHS with a neck at 645 level, and that could launch the start of the uptrend.
Hi Tony & all, Tony does the DOW have overlap w Major 1 @ 13339 or are you considering another subdivision 1-2 possible? Thanks in advance
Hey HD … long time
Considering a subdivision if we get a downtrend confirmation.
Oct 11 has some historical significance. Wouldn’t that be something.
Cmon guys don’t be strangers
See yas after the closes
Tony – okay we are looking to keep above 1430.53 in order for this to still possibly be a i ii and not a 3 complete at 1470.96?
Is that correct?
Thank you
PBNJ … 1422
Thank you Tony
Cheers
DOW SPX ABC Flats, NASDAQ NDX Zigzags
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/10/elliott-wave-noon-update-for-10-10-12-abcs-in-the-indices-youtube/
CL takes pit low out
Proves u never go broke taking profits
Hey R C nice trade !
i did have a little help from the crude mastah.
http://scharts.co/WHw6Ot
at 13384, c=a
61.8% extension = at abt 13190 .(minor wave 4 support)
Thanks Mario
These mkts keep u on ur toes
1427.25 scene of the crime ESZ OCT 1 st Globex low
doing my best
Tony, how much should retrace (fib retrac) a normal primary wave IV. (from primary wave II).(38% ?).
Mario,
Depends on the wave structure
NDX
Major wave 4
Wow !!
My feeling ? = we should see something at abt 38%. (around the 50wma)
S1 @ 1429.50 ESZ
I punted my ca. 1442 SPY longs from yesterday at a small loss. 60min RSI at 15 and oversold for over a full trading day and this is the best bounce we can muster? not feeling great here. think 1430 could come quick, then probably 1400 after. (since hitting 1430 will break some important lines IMO). though it does look like some decent support around 1426, with prior minor wave high and the 50ma. i’m flat and living to fight another day. good luck all!
Hey R C
Flat is sometimes a position people envy
i hear flat is the new up
hah
Buy Greece on dips / short FTSE on rallies
Short U.S. / Long EM ( BRICS have now been very publicly discredited on CNBC )
Just when they are starting to look good
yes Tony…there has been some phenomenal on the ground changes in India prompting a positive response even from Tim Giethner…while its too risky to get long on a trading basis at this level …but from an investment standpoint buying India on any dips feels like one of those rare failsafe investments which may just give that extra oomph to a diversified portfolio…
Several in a group have been bullish India for quite some time.
Short Google / Long Apple..
Trade well amigo’s
nothing new under the sun
But I still get surprised
how long till the majority of bots switch into sell the rip mode? feels like that could be happening. 1437-38 looks important to me
1437 ESZ was that # I was watching yesterday. Globex held it
This markets continues to surprise
yes! i’m starting to think that there could be a lot of trapped SPX longs from 1400…
lines and curves of GLD
http://markettime.blogspot.com/2012/10/gld-october-10-2012.html
Previous waves stay there… count adjusted
http://scharts.co/WHw6Ot
We are now at an uncertain area. This structure is corrective or impulsive ?
the market sure is struggling to bounce, considering how oversold we are short term. not a very promising sign
Hey RC taking some profits in CL
Not saying it’s the right thing just offering a fade
Im looking for $94.15 ultimately and probably try a short there
i hear ya. sold 1/2 min yest, this am seems as good a time as any. thx
$94.15 = just above the 9/21 high (shorts to cover) and right at prior support?
Hey R C
That’s my guess right now…
Im trying to hang with a few for the buy stop a pallooza
Hi RK,
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAD&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p84427181771&a=159918402&listNum=11
Yes for the AUD/USD.
Initially, but the ASX is a diversified economy and should do well anyway.
sorry.. i meant your SPX 1439 instead of “your low”
Hi Tony,
I have a morning low of SPX at 1438.21, exceeding your low on Monday’s update… any implications or change of count?
I bought the low (Good luck to me… lol )
Thanks Tony, your numbers are awesome
Hi Adeline,
The SPX has now fully retraced the entire 1439-1471 rally.
Not a good sign.
But a positive divergence is trying to develop on the hourly chart.
GL
Tony, I am new here and this will be my second entry, I would like to say thank you for all your time and expertise you put into this forum. The spx 60 or daily chart and your count is still on target, it is in a large bull flag at this time and continued retrace is okay. Your original target for iv would work very well if spx holds to the flag. A/B and now working on C to finish retrace. IMHO
thanks Gary and welcome
http://scharts.co/WHw6Ot
DJI exceeded previous wave 4 and wave 2, so IMO 13425 turns to be a crucial support at this point.
Watching: the tech sector is slightly outperforming today. Right at a very important support.
The market has the final word.
My question, Tony: how many waves do we have in the dji from 13662 ?
DOW? three or one depending on the timeframe
Tony, on your AAPL count, am I reading that correctly as a Major 1 of Primary V complete at $705 just recently? And if so, do you have a speculative target in mind for Major 2 low? Thanks again! sorry for all the questions this am. mkt feels like we could be at another interesting juncture and just trying to make sure I’ve got all my thoughts lined up properly. gracias!
Lots of congestion around the $600 level
like me during allergy season!
thanks. i was looking at the $550-ish range, around the Int wave low and also about 23.6% back from the march 09 primary low.
Don’t let that bother you as Tony’s habit is to generally not answer specific count questions (too many specific wave count questions I have asked remained unanswered or poorly answered so I think that in reality Tony actually doesn’t count wave, he leaves that to his army of students), but to clarify your post you are not reading his APPLE chart correctly and he failed to point it out in his reply.
What you see at 705 is MINOR 1 of Int. iii of MAJOR 5 and not like you read it MAJOR 1.
In fact, according to Tony’s APPLE chart, MAJOR 1 topped April 26th … 2010 at 273 and, stunningly, MAJOR 2 bottomed … 10 days later at 199 on May 6th. Yes a 10 days MAJOR wave. I guess that’s the beauty of OEW !!
I hope you can now make an informed investment decision based on the true count posted on Tony’s APPLE chart.
Erka,
I have been tracking and labeling waves for 30 years.
Would anyone be able to clarify.. (noob question)
Does SPX print Globex hours on the chart?
Did SPX exceed Tony’s 1439 as per monday’s update?
Thanks guys! Awesome community here
)
Hi Adeline,
SPX is a cash only market.
Hours 9:30 – 16:00 eastern time.
ES is the SPX futures market.
Currently at ES 1436 (SPX 1442) about unchanged from yesterday’s close.
Thanks for all the info Tony. FWIW, credit is still holding in there quite strong. I abhor the phrase, but accounts truly do have cash ‘on the sidelines’ – lots of coupon income to re-invest in credit. Folks are also re-allocating out of mortgages now that the mortgage QE has distorted that market, and much of that money is moving into credit. Which in my view ultimately is supportive of equity prices. That said, on a short term basis, credit guys are watching equities for cues just to be sure we don’t get an August ’11 meltdown. Nobody wants to be caught offsides, even if you do have money to spend! cheers
RC thanks,
Have noticed the buying in Corporates:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST:$DJCBP&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p55588029167&a=153431025&listNum=11
At what point would you start to think that we’re in an A-B-C correction, having just finished a B rally? 1430?
While the SPX came up short of a new high, the DOW did not.
This is somewhat similar to the spring of this year.
Using 1422 as a line in the sand right now for the SPX.
cool. thank you sir
As you explained to me yesterday and if I understood it well, as per your proprietary system, it’s not the waves who dictate if we are in a downtrend/uptrend but rather the opposite, identifying a downtrend/uptrend helps you define/refine/confirm the wave count.
As a consequence, since you identified a downtrend in NDX, you labeled the recent top as Primary III and confirmed that we are now in Primary IV, with a maximum downside potential down to 2’438, the top of Primary I. Can you confirm without breaking any proprietary secrets ?
You are free to disagree and to offer your own count. Many here do just that … but your continued aggressive posture really makes plain that you have an agenda that does not include making a positive contribution to the discussion here. It would seem as though Tony’s OEW is being viewed as a threat to EWI’s corporate enterprise. Either that, or your Bannister’s new handle.
I have used the same handle since day one. I have no other agenda than trying to pinpoint inaccuracies when I see them and attempt to get a response that never comes or never addresses the issue.
EWI is a joke. Just look at Hochberg and Prechter’s pathetic past and current records.
I don’t know who is Bannister.
Are you DB by any chance?
Erka,
Price determines trends.
Wave patterns determine bull/bear markets.
Trends are the significant waves within those bull/bear markets.
Currently that is the wave count in the NDX/NAZ.
But it is quite out of sync with the SPX/DOW count, and subject to revision.
The DOW is the bellwether, not the Techs.
This is your answer today:
“Trends are the significant waves within those bull/bear markets.”
And this was part of your reply a couple of days ago:
“Uptrends and downtrends have nothing to do with the degree of the wave.”
Make up your mind Tony.
Someone came to their senses and removed this rule breaking Int.iii top on APPLE to replace it with a Minor 1 top ! You are making progress !
You’re being rude now Erka11 and it’s getting dull listening to you. Back up some with the tone and attitude or ‘jog on’.
EW or OEW is certainly not an exact science but determining and posting a wave count requires very precise analysis and must rely on certain rules that cannot be broken.
I have repeatedly pointed out some discrepancies and I have almost never received an adequate reply.
I don’t think my posts are rude. I am simply flabbergasted that so few of you, if not none, have a contradictory approach and question the premises on which Tony’s forecast are based, namely his wave counts.
As I have said many times Tony has been correct beyond any statistical doubt on his calls on the market and on certain specific instruments, be it stocks, currencies or PM. I find it amazing that he could achieve this accuracy using what would be considered by many Ellioticians as extremely debatable and challengeable wave counts.
I am simply doing my homework and not accepting the dogma with blind faith.
Tony thanks for an excellent blog, I have visited many Elliot wave blogs and yours is by far the best.
Concerning the long lines: I use the small cap index as reference and from bottom in Oct 3 2011 to the top in late March 2012, I count an ABC up. Many thought of this wave as a fifth wave but it isn’t (I think). If we call this the A wave and then B wave down to summer this year…
And we are currently working on the C wave that should end in the vicinity of 920 on the small cap index. As C should be as long as A…
The whole complex mentioned above looks like the end of a reversed big fifth wave that should take approx 2-3 more years more to complete. As I see it we will have a correction after 920 to make the transition to the less steep part of the third wave. Then a gently sloping 3 rd wave that will go on for maybe 2 years and end in a steeper first wave to finish the bull market.
If I am correct it could bring SP 500 to about 2100 or 2200 or thereabout.
Guess the interest hike will do the job of ending the bull market.
Hi Tore,
Hope you are referring to the R2K.
2009-2011 was an abcA up … agree.
2011 a B down. But Oct11-Mar12 was five waves, which we labeled an A as well.
Understood.
We are simply expecting another five waves up in the R2K from the recent low.
Can see, possibly SPX 1700, but not much more than that.
cheers!
total long allocation reduced once again, shorts added.
Tony, your OEW is amazing !!
Honestly, I didn’t relised how important it was today.
Thanks,
Mario,
Extended uptrends can lull most of us to sleep
The market has a history of making significant lows in October and then beginning significant rallies into year-end. Will October 2012 follow this trend?
good point Mike!
will a downtrend force a re-label of the internal waves since June?
More than likely Piazzi
So are you saying the medium term uptrend would be over at 144o0 breach or the bull over ??
Just the uptrend Fran … that’s the 1422 breach
Tony, is that a close or intraday of 1422 on spx?
Bob, that would be an intraday print
Thanks Tony. Just to clarify, when you say “Should the market drop below SPX 1422 the uptrend is probably over.” – do you mean that we just had Int IV and Int V (double top) and that Major 3 is likely over?
Possibly the SPX weekly – DIV plays out then ?
Will J Lo ever get married again ?
Thanks Tony
I hope so. I think that typically marks the next Primary bullish wave
possible
“Should the market drop below SPX 1422 the uptrend is probably over.”. You mean to say major 3 over and major 4 started? Thanks
haha good question!
it seems we think of the same question at the same time
Happened before too.
Actually it appears too low of a high to end a Major wave 3.
Might be a lower degree. Like Int. one of Major 3.
But a downtrend would have to be confirmed first.
Thanks. So effectively if a downtrend is confirmed then this was Int. one high rather than the Int V that we were looking for?
Yes, that would make more sense since the high was only 1471/75
Moving the wave count down a notch to Int. I of Major 3 instead of Int. v is extremely bullish as Major 3 would just have begun instead of ending.
Can you seriously consider such a count and at the same time anticipate P III, IV and V to complete in mid to late 2013, as per your own words in the Sept 29th week-end update ?
Hi tony, please do post on aud/usd. with ur count u still think it will top around 111-114 around 2014? what is this b wave target after a finished at110. Asx is nearing cycle wave 2 followed by wave3 as per ur count but if we asume commodity bear market will start near 2014 for 21 year cycle will it affect asx as it is mining oriented economy?