SHORT TERM: gap down opening starts the week, DOW -27
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. European markets opened higher but lost 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight as well, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1455. The SPX had closed at 1461 on friday. After an hour of choppy action the SPX drifted up to 1457 by 10:30, then pulled back to 1453 by noon. A rally attempt followed, but the market only managed to reach SPX 1458 in the last hour of trading. Then it pulled back to close at SPX 1456.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.80%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. This is nothing on the economic/FED schedule tomorrow.
The market gapped down today for the first time since the end of September. That gap down marked an important low: SPX 1436. After hitting the SPX 1453 low around noon, the market tried to close the gap at SPX 1461, but came up short. We still see the above mentioned SPX 1436 low as the end of Minor wave 2, and a subdividing Minor wave 3 underway. This short term count remains in effect unless the October low, at SPX 1439, is exceeded to the downside.
Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold today and then bounced. The short term OEW charts tested support today at SPX 1453 and held. A positive bias remains with the swing level now SPX 1454. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Later All
I’m rooting for TC
thanks Lee. Ur such a good guy. Have a great afternoon all.
Thanks Tony.
We need a turn-around-Wednesday if there is such a thing..
Tony, is there any important announcement on the tech sector scheduled for tomorrow ?
Not that I know of Mario.
We do have the FED’s Beige book
Tony, the tech sector is at an important support, but it looks suspicious to me
Looks like it’s going to confirm a downtrend
The blue chips (DIA) are doing fine…..yet
right here looks like a good spot to add SPYs to me. 1442, +div, just sayin…
Ive got a pos div on my medium term Vol chart in ES also….feel a tug on ur coat tail ?
pivot time
U.S. govt sues Wells Fargo for mortgage fraud
Well it’s about time……………………..Nov 6 th 2012
Let the October “surprises” keep coming…oh boy
the length of that bar and how oversold we got were both a little more than expected. the rebound has been somewhat weak. both make me feel like we might need a retest first now; perhaps a +div setup at Lee’s spx 1440 cash
Good afternoon rc – see any +div setting up as we approach the 1440 area?
Thanks
“Hi Erka,
Your questions require answers with proprietary information. No matter in what form you ask them, the answers will always be the same. thank you”
Well then, even if I can never know your answer I can take solace in thinking these questions must be pertinent ones
Watch your fingers Erka, it looks like you ground the blade clean off your axe!
Long S&P today , bring on the bears!
As expected, 13475 (previous wave 2) acting as support now (abt 78% Fib retrac)….something must be ending at this point
http://scharts.co/WHw6Ot
In my opinion,, the market still looks fine. No complaints.
Keep up the good work Mario
see ya guys after the closes
1437 * ESZ thats what Im watching
aka spx 1440 pivot
Thanks Lee for the aka
Cheers
profit taking in AAPL it seems now from the insane dip buyers posse
SPX too much good news lately needs a crisis to get back up
Hey R C re CL
That didnt suck too bad did it ?
good job if u jumped in and nice eye.
Hi Tony, Is there any need to change the count on the 60min chart of $SPX? the pullback from 5th October seems rather deep. Thanks
Hi Adeline, correct no change
BTW Thanks Patrick
See my comments last thursday
See the Cardinals last nite ?
Yes, and Matheny left Boggs in to face the same guy he would have faced sunday.
He popped up.
Have been saying for days and days that S&P’s intermediate cycle low is statistically and theoretically projected for late Sep to Mid Oct time frame
also, funny how oil is OK today while S&P is down
there is a funny thing about cycles, they have a good probability of reoccuring
My premise has been and will be that as long as the low of CRB holds, risk assets are OK
Bottom will be on Oct 2_
Hey Scotty AAPL EPS Oct 26 th right ?
Lee I’m waiting for a cycle low date in aapl
So, scottycj1, you are saying the bottom is already in on the SPX at abt 1336? Thx!
Crude yes seems to have left its intermediate cycle low behind but the US$ too. So that should put a damper on gold and silver for maybe 2-3 weeks in particular and risk assets in general. Not saying they will go down seriously, but not explode up either.
AAPL was just bought..their stop are probably $623 ish IMO
thx Lee
Hi Lee,
What do you mean with “was just bought”?
Thank you
Hi
AAPL traders I follow bought them under $626 this morn
thanks
do you know why did they buy there?
ESZ S2 @ 1442
S3 @ 1432
PP @ 1451.50
Have fun guys
.76.40% same range = 1437.25 ESZ
small +div on my ST volume chart ESZ
ok thats all I got and it aint much
trade well !
13475, next ?
http://scharts.co/WHw6Ot
Still long blue chips (75%).. short tech sector (75%)….these positions are working very well for the moment.
Lee, how is CL looking to you here? I’m considering taking a stab on the long side.
Hey RC
How much downside could u bear ?
moi?? i’ve got a pretty high pain tolerance. learned the hard way
then just buy em !
scalp or position ?
it just traded .618 back from pit/R2 high
domo…domo
How about them Card[boys] !
Hey C B
Sorry I missed ur question ..
CL @ R2 90.95
Hey RC
ur 1447 SPX = ESZ 1442.50 ish which is .618 back from 10/5 high 10/1 Globex low also
Just took out last nite Globex low by a tick.
yeah. looking reasonable right now. “i love it when a plan comes together”
DING
Stop o rama
Hey Lee, thanks. Sorry Icouldn’t respond earlier…had an emergency at home today -just came back from a hospital. Will try to catch up with things whenever I can. Thanks Lee! Good eyes!
Hope all is well CB
Long day for you C B
Hope u guys catch a break soon
Markets can wait.
thanks for asking Tony. We thought that things were under control and TC was already getting excited about driving again last week.. . but today was a shocker ..it’s like electricity- you get a big short out of the blue..I hope that stronger mediaction will do the trick for him ..but it will be very difficult for him to accept some limitations
Sorry to hear that CB.
Tell TC we’re all rooting for him.
+1
thanks Lee – I really appreciate it ! Sometimes hope is all we have and need. Nice puppies!! and 7 is a lucky number
thank you guys, TC will be happy to hear that. You guys are so good..
Hi Patrick – I read your comments early about gold. You think we correct now into the end of the month or perhaps gold has one last push higher through resistance in line with a rising stock market till the end of the month. I would just like to be clear. Right now markets seem like they could go either way.
Thanks in advance.
Hi Tony – When I look at your SPX 60 minute I believe I can clearly see 5 waves up with the 1470 top being a failed 5th. Is that not the case?
Also Tony what do you make of Nasdaq being ‘under the cosh’ here and in a C-wave. Do you not think the S&P follows it down or sector rotation is enough to see out the Nasdaq C-wave and then when it turns up the S&P continues higher?
Alex,
Tough call on the NDX we’re all watching it today.
Alex, do not see that
Ok fair enough. Thanks for your feedback. You think it’s make or break time in the short term for the market? GANN turn 10-12th Oct.
Techs are certainly not helping
http://s7.postimage.org/lax8pnhej/spx_oct8_12_rev1.png
notation
Minor 1 – Expanding Triangle with Minute “v” as ET as well
odd count, but possible
Well, we got some of the signals. Gap down open, double bottom with a +Div 60min RSI. Not quite to my trendline, but hey, you caaaan’t always get whaaaat you waaaaaahhahaant
http://scharts.co/WHw6Ot
Looks corrective, at least for the moment.
Interesting APPLE chart tonight.
After yesterday’s close the APPLE chart’s labeling of the 705 top was changed from Int. III to Minor 1 of Int. III, quite a jump backwards.
As I was writing a comment I checked the chart again a few hours later and noticed it is now being changed again to “tentative” Int. III or Minor 1 !
Again, how can you even contemplate labeling the top as Int. III if the subsequent move, supposedly Int. IV, has just penetrated the top of Int. I at 641.25 ? Isn’t a cardinal rule in EW that Wave 4 cannot penetrate the territory of Wave 1 except in a diagonal triangle ?
And BTW, it doesn’t look that your Minor 4 and Minor 5 (or for that matter Minute 4 and Minute 5, if you consider the top being only Minor 1 of Int. III) would qualify respectively as a 3 wave structure corrective move and a 5 wave impulsive move as per R.N. Elliott basic rules.
So there again, it’s a matter of placing labels based on look more than strictly respecting the rules. Oh well, if it works fine that way why bother I guess !
Erka,
This is objective EW, not subjective EW.
There are subtle differences, i.e. refined tenets.
When AAPL’s proper labeling can be determined it will be posted.
In the mean time, it is still in a confirmed downtrend.
I can’t even say that by never responding directly to my questions you are doing a disservice to your credibility since 99% of the posters have absolute and total blind faith in you regardless of how many times your wave counts simply do not abide by the most basic Elliott rules.
Hey Erka 11
99% is my copyright
Put a nickle in the jar please
Hi Erka,
Your questions require answers with proprietary information.
No matter in what form you ask them, the answers will always be the same.
thank you
http://s7.postimage.org/r1wbxu3u3/spx_oct8_12.png
in other take this is ?.. possible
Stan,
A 1-2, i-ii-iii-iv ?
It looks more like a 1-2, i-ii, 1-2 on my charts
Correct CB, between approx 10:15 and 11:45 there is a +D, between those 2 points you like to see the RSI get close to 50 or neutral, I trade a 3 min. TFZ chart and find that on the very short term charts you will usually get 2 +div. before a turn. Another point is that you can use the RSI to draw valid trend lines. I call it on the bumps of the rsi. Bump=pos-neg-pos or neg-pos-neg
http://screencast.com/t/IAS2gdQOtovP
Dutch
Interesting, thanks Dutch!
Thanks, Tony. Have a couple of questions.
AAPL: If 705 was minor 1, what are you expecting for minor 2 ?
SOX: interm ii still unfolding ?
Mario,
There’s lots of congestion around $600.
SOX downtrend, yes.
OT. Can anybody advise on how to find a mutual fund tracking (for the lack of a better word) shipping industry? If it exists, of course.
Thanks!
kvilia, someone mentioned the other day that only some etf options exist right now – if I recall correctly…I think SEA is one of them…sorry if I am just repeating the same thing…
Thanks, CB. Fidelity will allow only mutual funds trading, so I guess I will keep looking.
kvilia, without doing any in-depth analysis it’s just a speculation, but prbly. a decent one that China is closely correlated to shipping…after all the produce most of the “stuff” – so maybe one could use them as a proxy..would be interesting to see which one is actually leading, shipping or China…we need a busy bee to do that I guess..lol.. they both look pretty close in many ways.. 50 vs 200 dma , for instance etc.. http://screencast.com/t/dNBSIq49
Interesting: The coppock (monthly) of the global shipping index is already uptrending, also FTSE Xinhua China 25.
Roland,
Do you have a chart?
Of course Tony,
Look this
http://s7.directupload.net/file/d/3038/5owopzou_jpg.htm
that index looks quite similar to the BDI, thanks
Thanks Tony!
Smells like a gap down open to 1447 & hits ST trend line & 60min lower boll band & Pos Div on 60min RSI & 1440 pivot & 10 point bots = rally at 10-10:30am and we’re back in business.
I like those thoughts RC.
Patrick: do you also think that the -divs on PM require a correction here? – Thanks, Joe
Thinking the PM’s are setting up for a 5-8% correction going into the end of the month.
Thanks Mr. Red.
seems to me that we’ve already accomplished that with that move to 1453.1 (TL and +D) http://screencast.com/t/AzYSI7EXr but I am ready to eat crow…for breakfast if I have to …
Hey CB – I’m looking at the trendling formed by the following two points: 9/26 intraday low 1430.53 and 10/2 intraday low 1439.01. That line is still below us, probably intersecting around high 1440′s if we were to get there tomorrow.
I see what you’re saying on the +div; to me the time between the absolute low in RSI and the higher low that you’re looking at seem too close to count as seperate events. just my take, given the broader charts. cheers!
agree RC..def. a couple of TLs below http://screencast.com/t/jZecPbdX5eT
We could still get a backtest of that triangle breakout. This would resolve what appears to be a bull-flag and also possibly line up nicely with the apex of the triangle.
thanks TS!
that rising supp. could prbly. be drawn a bit tighter also… (?) http://screencast.com/t/aTqQXbhwLG
Lee can you help us out with that..what are you seeing there in ur magic charts? ..unless ur watching baseball already.. : )
Hey CB, ….there is no +D on your chart, the RSI is calculated on the CLOSE of each bar therefore you need a bar with the same CLOSE or lower CLOSE before you can have a pos. Divergence, not trying to be smart but just want to be sure everyone understands that.
Looks to me it is going to break that TL.
Dutch
thanks for the explanation Dutch! The close vs. the low is an important distinction, for sure. Applying what you’ve described to today’s 15 min chart, one can see such a set-up, if I understand you correctly. http://screencast.com/t/sSaWluzkE