SHORT TERM: market starts to make upside progress, DOW +81
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 367K vs 359K. The SPX opened at 1455 and continued to rally. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported lower: -5.2% vs +2.8%. A few minutes after the report the SPX hit a new rally high at 1463 and began to pullback. The pullback lasted until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1457, then it tried to rally again. At 2:00 the FOMC minutes were released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121004a.htm. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1463 again, then pulled back to close at 1461.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rallied $3.40, Gold gained $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the SPX 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30, a speech from the FED governor Duke at 1:00, then Consumer credit at 3:00.
The market opened higher again, for the fourth day in a row, and held its gains again just like yesterday. With today’s rally exceeding the recent high at SPX 1457, it is beginning to look more and more like Intermediate wave iv ended at SPX 1431. We are now counting the initial rally to SPX 1450, off that 1431 low, as Minor wave 1. And, the pullback that followed to SPX 1436 as Minor wave 2. We should currently be in Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave V. This count is posted on the hourly chart.
Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance still at 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum rose from neutral to quite overbought today, then ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts remains positive from SPX 1447, with the swing level now at 1450. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market