SHORT TERM: market starts to make upside progress, DOW +81
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 367K vs 359K. The SPX opened at 1455 and continued to rally. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported lower: -5.2% vs +2.8%. A few minutes after the report the SPX hit a new rally high at 1463 and began to pullback. The pullback lasted until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1457, then it tried to rally again. At 2:00 the FOMC minutes were released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121004a.htm. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1463 again, then pulled back to close at 1461.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rallied $3.40, Gold gained $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the SPX 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30, a speech from the FED governor Duke at 1:00, then Consumer credit at 3:00.
The market opened higher again, for the fourth day in a row, and held its gains again just like yesterday. With today’s rally exceeding the recent high at SPX 1457, it is beginning to look more and more like Intermediate wave iv ended at SPX 1431. We are now counting the initial rally to SPX 1450, off that 1431 low, as Minor wave 1. And, the pullback that followed to SPX 1436 as Minor wave 2. We should currently be in Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave V. This count is posted on the hourly chart.
Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance still at 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum rose from neutral to quite overbought today, then ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts remains positive from SPX 1447, with the swing level now at 1450. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
thnx..but if on weekly then why write bear market on every weekly chart..
That’s “long term” bear market.
Bear markets have rallies too.
All about AAPL and it’s neck line today IMO
haa..what movie was that Lee?
Good Will Hunting
Lee, thanks! I think I’ve heard that title but I am such an ignoramus when it comes to movies..geez, I can’t keep up with the information age..what’s wrong with me..lol..need to rent this and watch Mr. Bourne
I sold my SOXL this morning. I’ll buy in again if it decides to make me look stupid for selling it.
I am short crude up to my eyeballs as I am in “sell the rallies” mode with respect to the black stuff.
All in all, today was not nearly as much fun as I have come to expect from NFP. Perhaps next weeks minutes will get the mojo going one way or the other (both is always fine with me, so long as there is mojo rather than nogo).
Nice job with Crude
Ur ready for CL now Homie !
Playing the ETF’s (SCO/UCO) and futures options right now. CL is in my futures(s).
Looks like the bots I mean day traders got done what they hoped to get done in SPX today
Im calling an ALL SKATE do whatever u want here..
Patrick, Tony, or anyone else wants to chime in…
Since Patrick’s post on gold, we have made new high, so it doesn’t seem minor iv started at that point. He also mentioned “two resistance pivots at $1793 and $1804″ and
“We should expect Minor 4 to correct anywhere between $35 – $65″
Since his post we have experienced correction to 1730′s I believe.
Do you think that minor iv has come and gone, and we are in minor v here?
Or just beginning minor iv possibly today?
Yeah, and crude corrected 50% of yesterday’s rise in just one day. Really a big damper for commodities today after the US$ fell yesterday.
Tony, With BDI up does DSX look good here.
Sooner or later it’s going to get noticed
So Tony is IV finally in the bag
?
Been looking that way for about a week now =)
maybe today will end with a squeeze……..both kinds….
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Thanks Tony.
Happy Thanksgiving to you up there in Canada (I assume)
Eh ?
…..Canada Thanksgiving……our Columbus day.
Hey Tony
Anyway today could of been B up from SPX 1431 ?
Thanks……….Go Cards
any hew Globex low is 1454.50 in botville
…..do you ever think you are loved for your crude remarks……x
lee, looks impulsive
Thanks Tony !
Tony, what number should we watch re: this staying impulsive…sorry if this is an awkward way to ask…I hope you know what I mean
Above 1457 is fine
thanks, Tony. And thanks for the question, Lee.
Thanks for the follow up question C B
1457 on my radar now
Looks like a R2D2 kind of day
Its Mario’s fault
1451.50 ish ESZ is .382 back from todays high and the 10/1 Globex low
Ive got a whole bag of these so …..:)
dang robots, you give them a number and that’s exactly the number they’re gonna go after..and make a +div there.. they’re like junkyard dogs …we need to keep our numbers …more confidential
we all communicate through their family lineage … silicon
nice # Tony
they just gave the carbon units the business
those silicon units are a handful
LEE/TONY Whats happening with crude, where do you see it medium term ?
Hey V
Im kind of short sighted at times
define medium term for me
Tony, does the gap-up then selloff we’ve seen lately concern you at all about the strength of the rally? Just feels like we’re really struggling to gain any momentum here at a time when I would think we should be breaking out with gusto. Correct me if I’m wrong. thx
This uptrend started choppy, looks like it will end that way too
thanks Tony. I don’t like it right here so I’m cutting most of my trading longs. Made some decent moolah lately and don’t want to be greedy, grasping at the last couple percent. I would have hoped for stronger follow through today, and with the action of AAPL, crude copper and gold i’m not feeling 100% convinced that this isn’t a B or even worse a flat/double top Int V. live to fight another day! thanks my man and have a great weekend.
Mini Crash just around the corner
http://screencast.com/t/Aqy3Alqxaw
Tony, if we are expecting “a peak in the daily RSI” then we are already there? Should not minor 3 exceed at least S&P 1475?
Blubrd,
Can not really call today’s high a peak.
Just barely overbought.
DOW made a new high today, other three indices have not.
that makes more sense, thanks for clarification.
Vix Intraday
http://screencast.com/t/mGtVzgiX
Tops in ST
In the VIX or SPX ?
Tanks Scotty
Top in Intermediate SPX—-Crude is going lower…will be a good buy later in the month
Thanks Scotty !
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-05/nse-probing-freak-trade-that-caused-price-error-on-bourse.html
If any of the Fed team is reading this blog: Do your job. You must start buying aapl. It doesn’t look good that the market is making new highs and the largest company in the world is lagging.
=)
That´s the way kids….now, don`t stop buying
Good morning, Tony.
70% or 100%, inter iv is in place ?
Mario,
Anthoer 7 points and you can make that 100%
=)
..it looks done for me. But I am using trailing stops anyway. So this trade would have no losses even if the market rolls over
I asked you abt the tech sector last night !!
The fact is that I suggested a possible split market in the short term. This was abt two weeks ago. So I am very curious abt the tech sector. Is this a possible wave two down while blue chips making the interm V (split market) or the tech sector is a working a new structure ?
Thanks
Mario,
We have had the Tech sector in a slightly differently wave count.
Which more less matches Greg’s alternate count posted earlier.
With the SOX in the rising part of a two year cycle, it would make sense that techs outperform.
Time will tell.
Tony, with spx being in the Int,iv wave and will be until a new high to confirm Int.v, break out could you see us breaking below 1450 level creating the possible continuation of Int,iv with a C wave to your original range ending Iv. 1422/27?
Gary,
As long as this market stays above 1445 that would seem unlikely
Just heard a funny comment from a treasury trader after the jobs #,
“Yeah, Obama says to Romney, ‘I’ll see your debate win and I’ll raise you a call to the BLS. Beat that punk.’”
Household survey biggest jump in… 29 years. things never felt so good!
Funny.
Recessions do not occur with declining unemployment.
Recession ? What Recession ?
Cards in the playoffs was the tell…IMO
Lee,
Last year it came down to Atlanta and St. Louis.
One game decides it again this year.
Tony
Unlike the unemployment numbers you can’t make this stuff up.
Go Cards !
haha nice
I posted this link a few days ago.
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=66&t=50
Does it look like the world is in recession as we have been said by the media ?
We’re doing great … we’re 166th.
Just underperforming.
It was easier finding Waldo than the USA on Mario’s link Tony
curve and line study S&P
http://markettime.blogspot.ca/2012/10/s-500-october-4-2012.html
Hi Tony – I really admire you’re dedication to a free and topnotch blog – thanks. I’ve overlayed past OEW wave counts with a peak/bottom calling system I’ve developed STORMM indicators) – it can be viewed at: http://hgpolites3.wordpress.com/.
On Sept 28th it signaled an end to wave IV and we went to a full long position at that point. I also put some alternative counts going forward into 2013 that suggest the next major moves are waves of one degree higher than the OEW forcasts and seem well correlated with the US election, US financial cliff, and eventually the IDF vs IRAN confrontation getting hot.
Your comments would be appreciated.
Cheers,
Greg
Hi Greg,
Can see your alternate count, and thanks for the comments.
Your Major 4 low touches the Major 1 high at SPX 1267.
While that is not considered an overlap it is quite unusual.
Also your projected Primary IV may overlap Primary I.
Nonetheless, it looks like a good alternate count.
tony
Good morning Tony
Quick question for you – what are you looking at for the end of this minor three?
Thank you in advance.
Morning rc and lee
Mornin … a peak in the daily RSI
Thanks Tony
Hey C B
Ur doing just fine ! re : your $88 support CL observation
Trade well guys
Hey Lee, so happy to hear from you!
) And thanks for letting us know on CL – you know when U say something it has some real meaning and this is gonna be quite reassuring to some folks. And how are YOU doing? Still fighting the bug? Hope ur doing well Lee. We’ve missed you here quite a bit for the last few days, kid.
Hi Tony,
Thanks for all of your fine work. I notice you watch the Fed’s weekly report of its Monetary Base. Today’s report at http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf showed 1 of the biggest drops in many months – this is surprising given QE3. Also, the Fed’s weekly report of C&I loans at http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page20.pdf shows a downturn – this had been trending up for years. This looks ominous. Do you have an opinion in this? Thanks.
Hi Seth,
The monetary base report came out last night. Quick observations!
While the drop was about $66 bln, and was a bit of a surprise.
I do not see this as being that important at the moment, and would give it more time for QE 3 to take effect.
Bank Credit also looks quite normal too.
cheers,
tony
Thanks, Tony.
The week before last week, I mentioned you that I was seeing five waves completed in the tech sector. My question: if this is correct, what could be unfolding in this sector ?
hi tony..
on international charts update djw on weekly says bear market same for asx/bse/nifty/bvsp..
http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/5
does that need correction as all these markets are in bull market on weekly atleast ..
Correct.
Only on weekly.