SHORT TERM: markets upbeat entering Q4, DOW +78
Overnight the Asian markets were flat. European markets opened higher and gained 1.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1445. The SPX had closed at 1441 on friday. At 10:00 ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 51.5 vs 49.6, and Construction spending was reported lower: -0.6% vs -0.9%. The rally continued until past 10:00 when the SPX hit 1457. After that it started to pullback. The pullback continued into the early afternoon, and then accelerated to the downside after FED chairman Bernanke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121001a.htm. Around 1:30 the SPX had pulled back to the opening level, SPX 1445, and tried to rally. The bounce lasted until 2:00 when the SPX hit 1450, and then it turned lower again. At 3:30 the SPX dipped to unchange at 1441, and then bounced into a 1444 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Auto sales.
The market opened higher to start the month. Rallied to SPX 1457 in the first hour of trading: +16 points. Then gave it all back, during the rest of the day, before bouncing into the close. It appears volatility has returned to this market. With this morning’s advance moving above the SPX 1450 level it turned the short term charts positive, suggesting the Intermediate wave iv pullback ended on wednesday at SPX 1431. With this afternoon’s pullback, however, the short term charts turned negative again.
This morning we posted an Intermediate wave iv low on the public charts. The recent market action from wednesday’s SPX 1431 low, (1450-1436-1457-1441), suggests Intermediate wave v may be subdividing during its initial advance. As long as SPX 1436 holds support we will assume this is the proper short term count.
Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit overbought this morning and then dropped below neutral during the pullback. The short term OEW charts turned positive, then negative again, (we’ll consider this neutral), with the swing level now at SPX 1448. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
SP intraday pos div. See if it plays out now…
tommyboys – with respect to what indicator?
Thank you
MACD
Well played
Tony, there is no (00) chance the Fed could step back with QE3, right ?
Mario,
The FED already committed.
Tony, as long as we hold 1430 we’re still a go, is that correct?
Correct
wow.. very choppy action on ES…
Here we go again. It looks this time we should get that buy signal.
GL
=(
Not good news
I’d give it 20% probability. RUT is poised to break two months old bear flag formation as soon as today or tomorrow, and there you get it. Correction is inevitable at this point and I am thinking 5-8%, Let’s see what happens in the next few days bit markets rarely climb up indefinitely.
8% correction ?..not acceptable, in my opinion,… at that point, we should have a new downtrend confirmation
I take it back. Weekly SPX suggests another few down days could be catalyst for a move to the lower line of a multi-year symmetrical triangle in the 1260-1270 area. This still will be within multi-year uptrend. Otherwise it will have to take out recent high of SPX 1474 and break out of this triangle with volume. Considering declining general volume and VIX at its lows I don’t see this happening, so a trip to high 1200sh is more likely IMO.
Tony, I am a bit confused abt your projection abt the bull market ending in feb 2013.
If the Fed provides the cash and traders make the waves, I guess we should expect more upside with an endless Q3. Actually, this bull market should never end while the printing machine is ON.
Are you expecting Q3 being a short live QE program ?
Was just offering an example.
This looking for mid-late 2013.
Thx. I got it. Sorry abt that.
With an enless QE3, I guess that time could be extended. (1, 1.62, 2.62, …..).
Exactly.
Even if Pri III thru V equal Pri I in time, we’re looking at Dec13.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9407608/Nouriel-Roubini-sticks-to-perfect-storm-in-2013-prediction.html
It looks it will be the opossite !!.. we are going to Disneyworld !! =)
Love all the doomers still preaching the same – Prechter, Dent (BTW -Dent’s demographics thesis has been shot to #$@% this year as $500B has been taken out by small investors and sidelined while market has rallied), Roubini, Faber etc… We need these guys.
line and curve studt with GLD
http://markettime.blogspot.ca/2012/10/gld-october-2-2012.html
thanks Piazzi
SP500 Follow Up High September 14, 2012…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/09/sp500-follow-up-high-september-14-2012.html
Long Term Elliott Wave Forecast: Bullish count and Bearish count and who’s likely right
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/01/long-term-elliott-wave-forecast-for-10-02-12-the-bearish-and-bullish-long-term-counts-youtube/
Thanks Tony. Nice work as always. The futures have set up a nice+div. yesterday P.M. and the cash has decided to follow them today although such test hasn’t really happened in cash, has it(?)… does that happen pretty often? http://screencast.com/t/kL0oBUMWP
have a good one everyone!
thanks CB
Anyone has any Elliott counts on Apple? It seems like this company is dragging the market lower. TY.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p15558743518&a=72519467&listNum=11
You label “downtrends” at the intermediate levels on a daily chart, that’s very short term ! Especially considering that if Int. wave 1 ended at 641 and current wave 4 is already at 650, there is only room for a further 9$ fall before the count is invalidated! On the the other hand, if 641 isn’t penetrated and the stock takes off from here in wave 5, your “downtrend” wave 4 would have only lasted a few days ! Very strange way to label this chart !
Erka,
Assume you are referring to AAPL.
It’s an Int. iii until it isn’t.
Tony,
Considering Primary Wave I took more than 2 years from march 2009 till early 2011, how do you objectively anticipate to fit major 4 and 5 of Primary III and all of Primary IV and Primary V in less than a year, and that is assuming the uptrend end as per the upper hand of your bracket in late 2013 ?
Hi Erka,
Primary I tooks 26 months.
Sixteen months is 0.618 Pri I in time.
Adding from the Oct11 Primary II low gives us: Feb 2013.
You really are a master at not answering my questions so let me rephrase!
In your weekend update you reiterated that Primary wave V should conclude the uptrend and end in mid to late 2013. My question is: dont you think that timewise it’s a bit tight to squeeze major 4 and 5 of Primary III plus all of Primary IV and Primary V in less than a year when Primary I alone took more than 2 years to conclude ? It’s a bit lopsided dont you think ?
Maybe so.
I do not make the markets.
Only track them.
That’s the game plan.
Let’s see how it works out.
That’s a good question.
Thanks Tony, interesting start to the month
Thank you Tony – Love Octobers