SHORT TERM: market pullback extends, DOW -44
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. European markets opened lower and lost 2.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened one point under yesterday’s SPX 1442 close. Right after the open the market resumed its pullback. At 10:00 New homes sales were reported about unchanged: 373K vs 372K. The decline accelerated after 10:00, and the SPX broke through the OEW 1440 pivot range hitting 1431 by 10:30. Then with an extremely oversold condition the market tried to rally. Around 1:30 the SPX reached 1439, then pulled back into a 1433 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.90%. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude slid $1.40, Gold dropped $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support now drops to the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow, Q2 GDP (est. +1.7%) plus weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders at 8:30. Then Pending home sales at 10:00.
The market opened slightly lower today, then continued yesterday afternoon’s selling. Within the first hour of trading the SPX broke through the OEW 1440 pivot range, (SPX 1433-1447), then made a low at SPX 1431. This Intermediate wave iv pullback has now extended to 44 points from the SPX 1475 high. A bit more than expected but still acceptable. Intermediate wave ii had a 54 point pullback. Currently this market is trading in between the recent Minute wave iii and iv range of Minor wave 5 (SPX 1429-1439).
Short term support is at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today then bounced a bit. A lower low tomorrow could set up a tradeable positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remains negative from SPX 1456, with the swing point now SPX 1451. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Int IV come and gone…?
Maybe, maybe just A … need more market activity
With daily retracing half way back to neutral, it seems ripe for another flush down. But we the managed market we never know.
Ur welcome pbnj
Glad to be of help
nailed GC and did ok with es cl
yes, you did. good work my man.
R C
Thanks man !
ZC will be next
Show’em you’re a tiger,
Show’em what you can do
The taste of Tony’s OEW Flakes,
Brings out the tiger in you, in you!
I just hope to some day see things the way you are able to.
I am willing to learn
Ur in the right spot
Tony is one of the best observers/historians of the market I’ve ever seen and THE best OEW/EWT guy I know.
Tony is by no means “cryptic ” like I am LOL but if u take the time and read what he writes and the answers he gives to us posters you’ll pick up on the the little nuances here and there.
If people want somebody to say BUY BUY BUY or SELL SELL SELL Id tune into CNBC at 5:00 PM CT
Trading is the best teacher it’s all just theory until you make the trade.
GL pbnj !
It’s all just theory until you make the trade
No doubt about it – you guys ARE the best.
No I am not seeking the BS of CNBC – they teach nothing – this right here is the best.
Thank you Lee
Thank you Tony
Cheers
QE3: Two day pop. 7-8 day drop. Now. Pop, pop, pop? (Repeat of QE2?)
it rhymes nicely Mike, so it should work
swing point 1455ish still…lets see what happens there..
Tony, at what downward price for AAPL would we have to reach for you consider wave 5 completed at $705? The negative deivergences (esp MACD) don’t look too promising to me.
Sorry to interject… I don’t see anything unusual with the MACD. In fact it looks like it could be putting in a low – or close – right in here somewhere… do not see a ND…fwiw
Tommy, I’m looking at AAPL with MACD and see ND similar to what we saw during the March-April high timeframe. This time around, MACD peaked around 8/29 or so, with price at about $680. When price moved to the recent $705 high, MACD peaked at a lower high than before. Add in a signal crossover this time and it looks like deceleration. Daily RSI exhibits a similar divergence as well. RSI 95 on 8/20, then a lower high RSI of 80 at recent price highs.
RC.. I see that but I think that’s a ST signal and the reason for the recent sell off which could have completed this morning… time will tell.
AAPL does not look too good medium term at these levels.
Getting close to a downtrend confirm.
GOOG appears to be gaining favoritism.
Looks like it bounced right off the 50 SMA this morning and the lower BB near 653. Could be done on the downside. Time will tell…
Although maybe my charts are screwed up ? Don’t see the 653 on the intraday yet it appears on my daily…?
Nicely done Tommy
Nothing…let’s wait
=(
Morn
Revisions resmidgeons
Trade well
Lee you helped out HUGE yesterday – thank you
Cheers
Good Morning,
It looked to me it needed more dowside. But iI am ready to switch to green light. The correction could be over. We should get the buy signal very soon.
GL
16,000
That’s the way Mario
Bend like a reed
Be like water
Lee, if I didn’t know better I would think you’re quoting Kung Fu Panda 2…
Time for another failure, like in May?
Any idea for this chart ?
http://scharts.co/PXKWgA
Thanks
I agree, Tony. RSI is suggesting the market should resume the rally tomorrow. Lets see how traders/bots play this out.
In my opinion, it still needs more downside.
Limit: 5-6%.
A larger pullback will turn the red lights
5 waves down complete in the indices?
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/09/26/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-9-27-12-5-down-complete-in-the-indices-youtube/
Tony Why would lower low be positive dirv? You would want it above 1422 correct?
Les, a slightly lower low would create a slightly higher RSI low.
thanks Tony.
here’s a link on that (possible) HFT regulation in Europe ,btw.
http://www.automatedtrader.net/news/automated-trading-news/137221/germany-moves-closer-to-law-curbing-hft–reuters-reports