SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -21
Overnight the Asian markets were -0.4%. European markets opened lower and closed -0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1453 at the open. After a dip to SPX 1452, in the opening minutes, the market tried to rally. At 10:00 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120924a.htm. The rally continued until 11:00 when the SPX hit 1458, and then started to pullback. For the next 2.5 hours the market traded between SPX 1454 and 1456. Then after hitting SPX 1454 for the second time, around 1:30, the market tried to rally again. Around 3:00 the SPX hit its high for the day at 1461, then pulled back to close at 1457.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 90 cents, Gold slid $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9:00, then Consumer confidence and the FHFA price index at 10:00.
The market gapped down again today for the second time in three tading days. This activity has occurred during both pre- and post- options expiration friday. The pullback took the market to within two points of thursday’s gap down SPX 1450 low, and then rallied. Again, somewhat similar to thursday’s activity as well. Thus far we have had a short term high at SPX 1475, a pullback to 1450, a rally to 1467, and now another pullback to, thus far, 1452. A possible Intermediate wave iv triangle may be forming: wave a SPX 1450, wave b SPX 1467, wave c SPX 1452, with waves d and e yet to come.
Short term support can now be counted at SPX 1450/52 and the 1440 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum was quite oversold this morning, like thursday, and rebounded to neutral during the day. The short term OEW charts turned negative, then positive again, as the market vacillated around the SPX 1455 swing point. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
BTW Pivot time
Sell On Rosh Hashanah, Buy On Yom Kippur
Guys if u look where right back to 9/13 range/crime scene where QE3 infinity was announced 1431.25 was reaction low after the news
Must be time
gee, amazing how that worked this year!…if I remember correctly you hinted at that Lee. Nice !
thank you guys.
U guys see anything familiar with todays action in ES/SPX at the days/weeks low ?
Hey Tony
Possible ABCDE as u mentioned now ? THX
Lee,
Market broke that scenario
Ok Thanks
So the previous supports as mentioned are what’s in play starting with 1440 pivot ?
Yes.
1550/52 did not hold
1440 pivot then
1422/27 maybe
Thanks Tony
Dip buyers in ESZ saying they wanted 1436 so here we are.
yes, a lil bit, thanks Lee. Thanks Tony. You guys are good.
AAPL Sauce C B
S2 ESZ 1440.50
S3 1430.75
haa…good one Lee..
def. apple sauce on some faces. Hey good to see you happy and smiling again Lee.
Thanks C B
Got ES back in the 1430′s I was worrying I was crazy but it just turned out I was sick
Should get some liquidity in there now.
thanks Lee. Apprecaite ur help! Futs traders only get sick when the markets are slow (or closed) it seems…when there’s action u come right back..that’s why you are ‘a notch above’.
This could still be that bullish abcde with a (nasty) ‘throwback’ for added effect..Bulkowski even keeps stats for all that “bad” behavior..
ESZ right back to yesterdays scene of the ramp @ 1447.00
thar be stops under thar
CL *hindsight alert
traded up to Sundays Globex high and back into yes afternoon ramp congestion.
Trade like a bot
Ltr guys
just one word for the moment: UP
DIA hit all time highs http://scharts.co/T8SYbu
SPY hit all time highs http://scharts.co/QhFION
IWM hit all time highs http://scharts.co/PVatqK
Is that Bearish ?
Hey Mario
What’s your alt count saying here ?
It looks the market is having a hard time working its way higher…. I am watching the tech sector
I guess a brake of the lows of yesterday will confirm what I feel most of the players are expecting
GL
1455-1452 proved to be support today. The market should hit resistance at 1462, and then 1466-1470.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/09/mondays-market-092412.html
Thanks Steve
10 handle range ES / SPX bots are humming while they eat
Thanks Tony!
Tony, if int iv triangle is developing, are you saying we might finish the iv without going any lower than 1450, and not reaching even 1440 pivot?
yes, that’s possible
Thanks! That would be very shallow retracement.
But we still need to get to the ovesold on daily? or that doesn’t have to happen either? It will difficult for that to happen if we stay in such a narrow range.
Blubrd,
Still think we can see that.
The 5 RSI is quite short term.
Would you post an update on your thoughts about SMH – are you expecting a 50% retracement of the previous wave? tia.
MJM,
So far it looks like it is in a downtrend from the August high.
It failed to make an new interim high with the SOX the other week, probably because of INTC.
But the SOX also looks like it’s in a downtrend as well.
Expect these two to lead when this general market pullback nears conclusion.
Thanks Tony. Do you think the triangle will resolve shortly?
By the end of the week?
26-28th GANN turn. Makes sense!
Tony
I’m one looking for the end of the bond bull market, so from an inverse perspective, what do you see as support for the ten year Tsy yield?
1.55%