SHORT TERM: market ends mixed, DOW -17
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight on this Options expiration friday. The market opened higher at SPX 1464 and continued to rally. In the first few minutes the SPX hit 1467 and then began to pullback. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1460 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude added 65 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Last night the FED reported a rise in the Monetary base: $2.656 tln vs $2.652 tln. Today the WLEI was reported higher again: 52.7% vs 52.1%.
The market opened higher today, hit SPX 1467 and slightly overbought, and then began to pullback. This two day rally is the best one we have seen since the SPX hit 1475 last friday. This suggests yesterday’s SPX 1450 low was an important one. We still see the SPX 1475 high as the end of Int. wave iii, and the recent market activity since then as part of Int. wave iv. With Int. wave ii, (SPX 1363 – 1309), a quick zigzag, Int. wave iv can unfold in a few different patterns: a flat or triangle or complex three.
Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit slightly overbought today and then declined. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412, with the swing point now at 1455. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Dow Jones this technically oversold, so felt the resistance of 13.602k, is losing support in case 13.516k can quickly search for your next support 13.344k. Notice that the index is in an uptrend and is within a bullish channel. An accomplishment not losing the channel would be a high achieving healthy for the index.
analysys link:
http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com
THANKS, TONY.
Here my ideas:
Tech sector: I see five waves from the lows of june.
SPX: It looks to me interm wave iii could be completed now.
All of this is suggesting me that we may see a split market in the very short term. SPX working its interm wave iv and something more important unfolding in the tech sector.
Waiting for your weekend update. =)
GL
Mario,
The SOX has been lagging lately so you may be right.
Earnings season in a few weeks.
thanks Tony.
http://screencast.com/t/PEt1Y6eAwD looking back at that dip to 1449…1 min chart shows a clear +d… perhaps that’s enough for the bots … happened before..we’ll see
this one rather http://screencast.com/t/6A3gEbJmDJ…sorry the first one was later that day
CB,
Think they monitor 5 minute charts.
thanks Tony. here it is. http://screencast.com/t/hQwxcmcjR
Looks like rsi 5 & ultimate osc. displayed some +D, but RSI14 didn’t get the memo . Everything is in the hands of a bunch of Spanish retirees now =).scary!!!
Thanks for a great weekend update Tony.
habla espanol?
No I don’t. I just took a summer course once – forgot almost everything bu now =)
What are the expected targets for the next leg down in the triangle Tony? What’s the lowest it should go and the highest low please? Is it allowed to go down to 1422 during trading and just not close that low? Thanks, Alex
Alex,
Can’t project the lowest low.
But SPX 1450 looks like a good level to watch.