SHORT TERM: market tries to rally, DOW +13
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 Housing starts were reported higher: 750K vs 746K, and Building permits were lower: 803K vs 812K. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s SPX 1459 close. In the first few minutes the SPX dipped to 1458 and rallied to 1463 by 10:00. At ten Existing home sales were reported higher: 4.82 mln vs 4.47 mln. After another pullback to SPX 1458 by 10:30 the market tried to rally again. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1465 for the second time in the day, and then pulled back into a 1461 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude dropped $3.65, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Philly FED and Leading indicators at 10:00.
The market opened slightly higher today, dipped to SPX 1458, rallied to 1463, then retested 1458 before heading higher. It did look like the market was ready to move to higher highs. But it is still hovering around resistance at the SPX 1463/64 fibonacci pivot. Even though the SPX held support, at the lower end of the SPX 1456-1471 pivot range, on tuesday. The current three day selloff in Crude is reminiscent of the last time the FED announced a QE program on November 3, 2010. Then, a few days after the announcement, Crude dropped 10% and the SPX pulled back about 4%. Crude has already declined 10% in just three trading days. If the SPX pulls back again, and breaks through the 1456 level, we could be looking at a pullback into support at the 1440 pivot and then 1422/27. SPX 1456 now takes on more significance as the market heads into Options expiration friday.
Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum was nearly quite overbought today, and then declined to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412, with the swing point now at 1451. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Same conclusion. W3 of A should be unfolding.
Today: wi and wii of W3. Next: wiii, wiv and wv.
So, I am expecting an extended W3 now.
http://scharts.co/O3NFby
Oil is “black magic”! I don’t get it. I will not trade oil. I don’t understand it.
GOOG Sell Rally…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/09/goog-sell-rally.html
Highest W3 targets after zigzags in the indices:
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/09/20/elliott-wave-noon-update-video-for-9-20-12-highest-w3-targets-for-the-indices-off-a-zigzag-youtube/
Tony, I am curious abt the possible count of this ETF. It looks like an ending diagonal ?
http://scharts.co/T8SYbu
Mario … that’s the DOW
Morn
1451 ESZ now ST resist
in other news
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/entertainment/2012/09/20/shakira-pregnant-first-child/
hopefully excessive hip shaking while pregnant does cause birth defects
Down with a cold u guys have a gooden.. I think I’ll catch up on Boardwalk Empire.
be well SNF
high doses of vitamin C, Lee – try it
It has been my working idea that
1. the recent CRB low was a multi-year low
2. the CRB cycle to unfold will be have right-translated structure
3. Crude is due for an intermediate cycle low in Sep 4-Oct 4 time frame
4. S&P is due for an intermediate as well as a short-term correction into October
Given above as my operating context
The previous lows in CRB and Crude must not violate
looking at charts and applying my line studies, I see 85 area of crude as strong support and would start feeling uneasy about my assumptions if crude violates that and keeps closing below it
One flea in the whole mess is that this is an election year and oil has had a habit of behaving funny nearing an election
The other flea in the mess is the undeniable and unfortunate facts that I have been wrong before and I can be wrong again
thanks Piazzi
Great work Tony – The bulls have usually won out, but the last 5 day fingerprint pattern is similar to the beginning of P2.
http://instigator928.blogspot.com/
Indeed, but do ont marry of previous response.
Markets are dynamic
The correction looks quite normal. This may be wave 3 of wave A unfolding.
http://scharts.co/O3NFby
GL
It looks like the market has completed 3 waves from 1456.13. If the market can hold here, wave 5 would project to my target of 1497. If not, look for support near 1450, and then 1426.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/09/wednesdays-market-091912.html
NAS Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/09/nas-time-ratio-1618.html
the correction is unfolding as expected
http://scharts.co/O3NFby
I got short oil today by getting long October 40 calls on SCO soon after the open. If crude continues to fall toward $60-70/barrel, then SCO could trade up as high as $90 depending on how well it tracks the decline. If the calls are in the money as of October expiration, I plan on taking the stock. However, I reserve the right to cash them out and buy more calls. The calls are a cheap way to cap my risk while dipping my two in the crude pool.
Like I said yesterday, I have no special indicator or fundamental reason to support my view – just leaning to one side and squinting at the daily chart.
Kudos THD!
No matter what happens tomorrow, I can always puff out my chest and say, “I was right. Once. And for a day …”
I’m still long my SOXL. I’m old enough to remember a time when a bad day for crude was a good day for stocks, so I’m ok with a short crude/long stocks position right now. At least for today …
I saw a multi-trader blotter today for a group of day trading futures traders. They all, everyone of them, got killed trading crude. When even the day traders are so bullish that they insist that the right play is up even when it is so obviously down, you have to be liking the chances that the down is going to continue for a bit longer.
Sometimes it is right, as Lee says, to buy the dips; but you have to be ready to sell the blips too if that is what the tape says to do.
As always, thank you for your blog, Tony.
Thank you for your ideas Homeless.
Thanks Tony, guys! Maybe opex week is when Lee’s 99% retracement get activated ..theoretically we could go back to 1457 …just to kill time..geez ..
looking at all the ichimokus cloud charts etc, we could dip as low as 1430ish
and 1442 is the bottom of the daily regression channel,
thx CB
Tony, I hope I don’t sound too confusing
, .cuz am dually-positioned now. Long based on the daily chart and short because of several negative intraday things building up since yesterday and a lot of latitude for a pullback.which seems imminent. Just trying to keep the 2 things separate in my mind…Opex. weeks – we love to hate them, don’t we.. : )
Mkt should move down to ES 1360 area only hope for bulls is if ES 1446 holds then we may get one more high Up Trend broke via my system
crude appears to be working on its intermediate cycle low that is theoretically due in Sep 14, Oct 4 time frame
so far, as far as past cyclical behavior is concerned, everything appears in order –So Far
Thanks Tony 1465 SPX*
ES pooped out into the close
Headlines today were “Markets Build Solid Base”
Maybe they’re right but from 1430 perhaps?
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/technology-blog/russian-asteroid-crater-revealed-filled-over-1-quadrillion-013025163.html
Im short diamonds from a few weeks ago
Lee,
Maybe we should start a crater expedition company next.
There’s lots of craters around.
Gold miners turned Diamond miners =)
Ah, on second thought, never mind
nice story Lee!…(and the photo..lol)…so China is going to war over that island and we’re going back to Putin and demanding Siberia back now? (and start world war III over that mine?)….
gee, how does one short diamonds?…. sell DIA ..right ? lol
Tony. Great job as usual. I know why isn’t important But why would crude sell off on the announcement of QE?
Probably because it ran up on the expectations of QE 3.
Buy the rumor, sell …