monday update

SHORT TERM: market pullback continues, DOW -40

Overnight the Asian markets were -0.3%. European markets opened lower and closed -0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: -10.4 vs -5.9. The market opened lower at SPX 1463, rose to 1465 in the first few minutes, then dipped to 1462 by 10:00. The SPX closed at 1466 on friday. The market then went into a tight three point trading range until 1:30, when it broke to the downside. The pullback then hit SPX 1458 by 3:30m and the market bounced into a 1461 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude dropped $2.95, Gold slid $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX is at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 CAB at 8:30, then the NAHB index at 10:00.

The market opened slightly lower today, bounced to SPX 1465, pulled back to friday’s 1462 low, then went into that narrow trading range until about 1:30. Around that time Crude oil broke $4 to the downside and stocks headed lower. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1458, before bouncing higher to end the day. This decline represents a 17 point pullback from early friday’s SPX 1475 bull market high: the largest pullback since Minor wave 4 in late August.

We continue to monitor the SPX 1463/64 pivot range: 1456-1471. A break through the lower level could mean Intermediate wave iv, during this options expiration week, is underway. Short term support now slips to the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum touched oversold during today’s pullback. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412 with the swing point now around 1445. Best to your trading!  

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp