SHORT TERM: FED rally continues, DOW +54
Overnight the Asian market caught FED fever +2.4%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.8%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported higher: +0.9% vs +0.8%, and the CPI was up too: +0.6% vs 0.0%. Then at 9:15 both Industrial production, (-1.2% vs +0.6%), and Capacity utilization, (78.2 vs 79.3), were reported lower. The market opened at the bull market high, SPX 1464, and continued to rally. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment hit a 5 year high: 79.2 vs 74.3, and Business inventories rose: +0.8% vs +0.1%. The market rally continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1475. With a reading of 98 on the hourly RSI the market started to pullback. Around noon the SPX hit 1465, bounced to 1470 by 12:30, and then headed lower again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1462 and then bounced to close at 1466.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Bonds lost 29 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1440 and 1389 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Last night the FED reported the M1- multiplier rose to 0.897 vs 0.867, as it continues to rise from mid-2011. Today the WLEI was reported at 52.1% vs 51.0%, the economy continues to grow.
The market opened at yesterday’s high today and made a new bull market high at SPX 1475 while getting extremely overbought. Then it began to pullback. Yesterday we noted we were using the SPX 1463/64 fibonacci resistance level as a pivot. Allowing the range of +/- seven points to dictate the next market move. This morning the market spiked through the upper end of the range at SPX 1471 on its way to 1475. But then just as quickly spiked down, back into the range again. As long as the market holds the fibonacci pivot range, (SPX 1456-1471), the market should move higher short term. If not, Intermediate wave iii may have completed this morning.
Short term support notches up to SPX 1463/64 and the 1440 pivot, with resistance now at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum hit one of its highest levels for the entire bull market this morning, and then began to decline. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412, with the swing point now at 1440. This weekend report should be quite interesting. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1475
LONG TERM: bull market
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Tony,
On the monthly $SPX chart, there seems to be a negative divergence on the RSI. Can you please comment on this? Thank you so much.
WC,
During the previous bull markets on the chart.
You can observe a series of negative divergences before the market actually topped.
Since we are in Primary III the current RSI rise will probably exceed the previous one.
Hi Tony, How likely do you think it possible that the Euro could break past the 1.33/1.35 resistance you have noted in the past. If the USD is in long term bull market (which hasn’t been derailed by this latest round of QE) then do you think it most likely that it will hold support there whilst perhaps against currencies like the JPY, GBP and AUD it continues to weaken from here (i.e. ones that it hasn’t gone into a bull market against yet)? You have mentioned levels before on your previous FX report. For example I think you said the AUD could get back to previous highs around 1.12 for a double top maybe.
Hi Alex,
The DXY just entered good support on friday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p45549968059&a=67199594&listNum=11
The EUR appears it still has a ways to go before reaching resistance.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p05297059726&a=74302903&listNum=11
We may see some of the other currencies pullback, while the DXY settles and the EUR rises.
Thanks as always Tony. Your answers always help.
The market is getting close to my 1497 target(and Tony’s 1499 pivot). I think this market could make it to 1560 without a substantial correction. I see a correction of slightly more that today’s 13 points after the market hits 1497, and then it should move higher.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/09/fridays-market-091412.html
My honest view of the market very short term
http://scharts.co/O3NFby
GL
“This weekend report should be quite interesting. Best to your weekend! ”
Hi Tony,
Although I don’t comment as much, I wanted to thank you for having the “best” blog on the ‘internetosphere’. And I must confess that every weekend update is “very” interesting and educational for me. I also want to thank all the regulars, who continue to share their respective expertise, experience, and opinions.
Hats off to all of you.
Regards,
Syed
Syed,
Thank you for being part of our professional group.
Hats off to you guys/gals!
Tony
This is the Best damn trading indicator on the planet
Follow it for 2 weeks FREE
http://www.markethighsandlows.wordpress.com
thanks Scotty, but it looks like the VIX
Tony
It’s HOW you measure the vix,
look at the 2 charts they are mirror images
Any view on GDX, Tony? Thanks.
GDX is uptrending and extremely overbought, even on the weekly scale
Tony,
Just a big Thank You as usual for all that you do here on this blog!
Sincerely,
Rob
cheers Rob … glad to help
Tony
On Aug 20th the spx daily macd hit a high of 15.88.
Today it closed at 16. No negative divergence in the daily macd.
Uptrend has more momo/less distribution than I thought it would have.
What’s your highest target for this uptrend?
Cheers Rob
Rob,
Highest target? Let’s take it one step at a time.
First 1499 pivot, then 1523 pivot and possibly, outrageously, the 1552 pivot.
Thank’s Tony
Let it Rise
Dax is hitting 52 week highs for the first time since spring 2011. Very interesting. CAC will/should hit 52 week highs next week.
http://scharts.co/R7fzhK
Gold gets a little higher. It will be hitting 52 week highs too. Silver will take longer.
http://scharts.co/R7iE1f
Hi Tony, thanks for the update…. now that the yields on tresuries , gilts, bunds are going higher at what point does this become a negative for the equity market? .. Many thanks
John,
When they start to react to inflation instead of risk aversion.
Tony – looking like YHOO, may have already bottom, what say you?
Going to follow it….
Bud,
Like it, and the new CEO.
But way too early
a pleasure to read, Tony….many thanks……Bud
Thanks Tony!.
Could U pls comment sometime on the BDI idx.
CB,
The BDI looks like it’s basing.
We need an uptrend, then one more downtrend to lock in a bottom.
Should happen this year.
Then we expect shipping rates to triple over the next few years.
are you watching any shipper?
Only DSX
Thanks for your thoughts Tony & Piazzi !