SHORT TERM: US market awaits the FED, DOW +10
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Export prices were reported higher (+0.4% vs -0.3%), and Import prices were reported still negative (-0.2% vs -0.4%). The market opened higher at SPX 1437 and rose to the uptrend high at 1439 by 10:00. The market had closed at SPX 1434 yesterday. At ten Wholesale inventories were reported higher: +0.7% vs -0.2%. The market then began to pullback. At 11:00 the SPX hit 1434 and tried to rally again. And again, the rally ended at SPX 1439 and the market began to pullback. Around 3:00 the SPX hit 1433 then bounced into a 1437 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistnace at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow weekly Jobless claims at 8:30 along with the PPI. Then the FED ends their FOMC meeting with a statement at 12:30, followed by Press conference. At 2:00 the Budget deficit will be announced.
The market opened higher today and twice tried to make new uptrends highs. For the third time in three days the rally stopped at SPX 1439. The Tech stocks were still a bit soft, but AAPL started to rally into the close after making a slightly lower low today … post iPhone 5 release. This market has basically been on ‘pause’ since it made a new uptrend high on monday. A retest of SPX 1429 is still possible as the market heads into, the typically volatile, FOMC day. It should be an interesting day.
Short term support remains at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum bounced around neutral all day. The short term OEW charts remains positive with the swing level at SPX 1427. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Thank you guys for your thoughts, enjoy the rest of the day!
more and more it looks like the CRB low was the 3-yr cycle low as expected
every component of CRB since that low has done nice %’ge
while there is little doubt to me about the low being a 3-yr cycle low, the question has been and
is whether we will have a right or left-translated cycle structure
evidence has so far been and continues to be pointing to it being a right-translated cycle
so far, so good
think i will buy some small oct spy otm puts here at the close, just for a trade. bollinger is farthest above the top band it’s been in hears. think maybe we need to get a little bit of near term recalibration (Int. 4 anybody?) before we continue the charge upward. 60 points in less than two weeks is no joke
we are all different players and have different styles
for me personally, the bets way I have found to make money with options is to be a net seller
one must get the trend right, of course
being a net seller of puts has been doing well during liquidity-induced uptrends of recent times
couldn’t agree more piazzi. just don’t feel like this is the time to be selling puts, but that’s just me. vol is as cheap as it’s been in a long time and we’re quite overbot. maybe a seller of otm calls if anything. but i like to sell my puts when the mkt is paying me for them. cheers
I don’t think it’s time to sell puts either
In fact, I think it’s time to perhaps close the sold puts
hah now yer talkin’ piazzi. good stuff
It’s going to trade IMO. RC
Rollover starts also
Have fun !
Hi Tony, has today change your potential count on oil and precious metals moving forward? Thank you and all the traders here for sharing your knowledge. Lurker.
RJ … will need to review the charts
Thanks, Tony. Will continue to monitor your thoughts.
Patrick…Do you favour your gold count over your silver?
Hi Lee, Is my silver bottom call from a few months back gonna hold? I almost lost faith when Tony did.
Oh man..no idea I HATE TRIPLE BOTTOMS ! LOL
but I’m going long interest rates with Tony if anybody wants a fade.
Looking to cover when I need Depends money.
What else
Hey V Shorting home buliders
Now that the ECB meeting, Jackson Hole, the German Court Decision, and the QE3 announcement are behind us, I would hope that we can go back to trading swings instead of sideways ripples (or were those riptides).
And could someone please tell me why my SOXL refuses to join the party? Everyone else at new highs and $OX is still beklow its August highs. It’s as though the semi’s have come home early from the dance.
the SOX likes real economic activity. this market is about inflation and financial engineering, hence the leaders: Basic Materials, Financials
$OX? beklow?
I have got to stop these mid-session drinking binges for cryin’ outloud
lol…drinking binges?…careful with that intake you’ll be like that kid in Igor’s GIF..throwing $$ out the window…
sox, they were leaders early, right?…so fairly priced by now… the beleaguered small caps could be described as undervalued now, I’d think…I am so sick of them though I can’t touch them any more even though they’ll prbly jump better than spx
From my analysis on the S&P 500 price targets, posted on Dec 03, 2011:
“On the upside the counts from 2009 lows are in play. The vertical count has the 1460 level as a target. One of horizontal counts points to the 1520 level. It was hard to believe when the vertical count was established in 2009 that the price could reach the 1460 area. Not so hard now.”
thanks Igor.
I gee, f there is such thing as easy money, today was it..
oops.’.if there is’.. if we clsose abv 1444, that’s a buy again imho
we’re at your 1465 pivot, now what…
all working out perfectly Tony! 3-7% fall from here with a turn date tomorrow/saturday.
Huge 3rd wave breakouts in the indices
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/09/13/elliott-wave-midday-update-video-9-13-12-big-w3-breakouts-in-the-indices-youtube/
Timothy Haefke @FuturesTNT
$SP_U- Goldman just 5 minutes ago sold 2,000 September outright.$$
thanks Lee
What does the Fed know that we don’t ? Going “all in” when S&P is at 52 week highs ? So if God forbid S&P falls to 1399 then will the Fed double the size of the MBS buying program per month?..seriously scratching my head…smells deeply fishy and desperate….and did they really not learn anything from the subprime crisis….are they really that arrogant or stupid…will they really repeat the same mistake of keeping easy money policy long after conditions have improved as they have declared today…Wow!…my gut says Sep 13 will eclipse the infamy of Sep 11 in the future historybooks….
Employment…
+1
It is concerning but not dire…things are certainly not falling off the cliff…If Greece had exited the Euro and then the Fed came out with this policy ..I could understand ….I have my grave doubts about the usefulness of monetary policy in a bal sheet recession ..fiscal policy on the other hand would go a long way (Germany vs U.K. recovery since 2008 is a case in point)…in any case the economy is like a super tanker which does take time to turnaround…sometimes doing nothing is the best idea…what will the Fed do now if tomorrow Greece does exit the Euro?..Does it have enough surprises left other than just increasing the size of the MBS program and extending low rates to 2115 ?
Hi Anando,
If you ever played Texas Holdem you will understand this term.
The FED and ECB just went ALL IN.
They think they have the best hand, because, afterall, they are the dealer.
I do not think their goal is just reviving the western world economies.
Think their goal is to gather greater and greater control of those economies.
Welcome to the Technocrat Economy of the 21st century.
best regards,
tony
so far so good for them Tony. agree w/ you
and Lee, thx for the GS color
Thank You R C Thank You Tony
GS let em go this afternoon…Often early and often correct when the dust settles.
Glad lots of folks doing well ! Sept 15 th is Tax day for us evil speculators so just in time
Understood Tony!..Thanks for your reply…Long live the new emperors!..
Hi Tony. With QE3 now in play, do you still see the SPX moving to the 1463/64 level before a pull-back in the current uptrend? Or, is it now more likely the SPX may approach the 1499 pivot before a significant pull-back? (Guess I’m wondering if QE3 is a game-changer for the current uptrend.) Thanks!
Mike,
It could be, but staying with the technicals
Thanks Tony. I anxiously await those technicals in tonight’s update.
now what? *yawn* i gotta admit, the QE world is getting a little old. same trade, different year. blech
RC … think they only committed $160 bln until year end … then evaluate
Tony, do you think gold & silver will hold their gains?
looks like the metals just got a new life
Agree, open ended until the labor market improves substantially.
What year would that be … 2015?
the interpretation from some of the traders i’m hearing is that twist and existing P&I reinvestment (~$45bn) will continue through year end, but that the new $40bn in MBS purchases is open-ended
well i guess it depends on what the Fed considers sufficient labor market improvement. considering the NY Fed’s own research asserts that several percentage points worth of our current unemployment is structurally irrecoverable, i’m not sure where the bogey is.
don’t sell your gold any time soon is all i’d say.
Thanks RC, Tony.
and we get QE3. off to the races
Looks like an immediate effect only to wear off over ensuing months. Also looks to have a lesser and lesser effect at all. I think any new easing will have a net muted effect going forward. I actually think rates will begin an ascent shortly… I could be insane however.
If I were bearish I actually shouldn’t care what the Fed will do. I would be looking at this Chart/Count http://scharts.co/P4GPPo
Meanwhile, this market is and looks bullish. Non even a sign of a bearish reversal or any turn around.
GL
Check out this new song I wrote..I’m sure prechter heard it already =)
http://soundcloud.com/samuelaguhob/the-one
good luck today everyone! should be a wild ride.
has the Fed ever done QE with stocks up +14% YTD…? hmm
Has the Fed ever done QE with the VIX below 50? If you really want to give the market a boost add liquidity when you can also produce a short squeeze! Japan’s been doing it for over 20 years.
Years ago, I read this book:
THE CIRCUS MASTER’S MISSION
By Joel Brinkley
I wonder if something like what Joel suggested in his book could actually happen in the middle east.
You may read the review at
https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/joel-brinkley-2/the-circus-masters-mission/#review
First target: 2600/2700
http://scharts.co/P1P4eZ
Hi Tony, Just to confirm we still potentially have Major 3 to come at the 1499 pivot (perhaps by Dec 22/12) then Major 4 and Major 5 before Primary IV AND Primary V sometime around mid-late 2013? It seems like a lot to fit in! P4 and P5 could be quite short right?
correct Alex
The “FED team” should be in charge today. =). Ben is supposed to be the “Boss” after all. So, I doubt the market could roll over as some are suggesting, even if the statement is very disapointing what I doubt it too.
The DOW is set for more gains and a huge rally. +20,000
GL
hi tony,
Either a short term top or long term top ..might be around the corner here is my analysis http://niftyewa.in/2012/09/12/sp-elliott-wave-analysis-3/
regards
vikram
thanks Vikram
Tony
I refere to:
“Stan,
Took a closer look.
…
I did notice an interesting relationship.”
Tanks for the answer and your opinion. If you do not mind, keep it in mind, watch this strange relationships. It occur quite often. I have found that many, many times, but afraid to conclude it as a principle,still.
Finding top is difficult, but I found one. As told previously, We have seen today top of the year for S&P at 1439.
Hi PankajShukla,
Could you please elaborate better on how/why you came up with this top?
R u still here or bulls rolled you over? Finding top is indeed difficult, you failed
Thanks Tony! Rumors are Ben will have an empty chair next to the podium at his news conference tomorrow. We’ll see…
haa..that’s funny Mike! That would be one way to dominate the conversation…another would be to just get a dog…neither would ask ask any tough questions… : )
guys, I’ve found this little gem on stocktwits
QEs and equities, courtesy of George Krum http://stocktwits.com/message/9498556
Thanks CB! Ben musta listened to the chair, the dog, or…the market?
Hi Mike, I think that by doing the obvious he surprised a lot of money managers after all those denials and voices from the Fed thatb they were apolitical ahead of the election.etc… the question now is do we get that larger pullback so some of those guys can get in ..
best performer today is in the low risk folio, $CWTR up 15.48%, up 40.39% since folio opened on 9-07-12. folio is up 3.39% versus its benchmark $IWM +0.36%.
see blog for details.