SHORT TERM: marginal new high then pullback, DOW -52
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened one point lower than friday’s close at SPX 1437. Within the first few minutes of trading the SPX dipped to 1435 and then tried to rally. At 10:30 it hit a new uptrend high at SPX 1439, and then began to pullback. At 3:00 Consumer credit was reported negative, have not seen this is a while: -$3.3 bln vs $6.5 bln. The market continued to head lower into a SPX 1429 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.15%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold was $11 lower, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow, the Trade deficit will be reported at 8:30.
The market opened mixed today. Notched a marginal new high at SPX 1439, the 1440 pivot range, and then pulled back. Initially the pullback was quite small, until it got some help from the negative Consumer credit report at 3:00. Then it turned into a normal 10+ point pullback. We have labeled today’s SPX 1439 high as the end of Minute wave iii. Minute iv should be underway now.
Short term support is at SPX 1422/27 and then 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot then SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum declined from friday’s extremely overbought condition to quite oversold today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing point now around SPX 1421. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1439
LONG TERM: bull market
Tony, any chance that yesterday’s 1428 was A, today’s 1437 was B and we’re gonna finish this little correction somwhere around 1421 ish?
or lower than 1421 to take care of that gap there..(?)
CB, that kind of thing is usually a tad difficult to anticipate.
Futures look fine. Not much of a rise in the RSI even though we hit within one point of the high.
Looks okay.
thanks Tony. Appreciate it. Thought it doesn’t look like we have 3 completed waves down yet ..I am prbly wrong on the wave structure.. was minute II a complex one?
flat
Thanks Tony. That relative lack of fear in today’s close directly ahead of that ruling is….interesting,…
and the fact that the Fed’s decision is pushed off till Thursday (fro whatever reason) is ..interesting also…looks like the Fed doesn’t want the market to react to both events at the same time…so there are most likely going to be two different reactions…just speculating =)
plus today 9/11
thanks Tony..great observation…definitely, there is some bias there
the lack of breakout momentum and negative divergence on 60 min RSI is a little concerning
today is reminding me a little of the march-may SPX/NAZ and DOW action. specifically, SPX & NAX made highs around 4/2, and the DOW did not. then when the DOW finally made its high on 5/1, the SPX and NAZ did not make a new highs. that second instance proved to be the end of the run.
today we’re getting the DOW making a high and SPX and NAZ once again not. unless the SPX can break out and make a new high today as well i might start to get worried.
Slight difference between then and now.
Then there were trend reversals in the DOW.
This time they are all in sync
I agree. Nothing important to be worried yet.
The…….. CHARADE………continues.
the DAX is closing like they expect a favorable outcome from the German Constitutional Court tomorrow
Cheers !!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48985721
target: well above 20,000
Dow just broke over 13338…should go.
Eh, we just almost got attached to alternative count. Well, so long B wave!
new high on Dow futures. it’s a start, at least…
need the cash breakout 13.338.66
yessir I agree. perhaps the cash/futures basis traders will be forced to push cash up enough. here’s to hoping. hey, we gotta start somewhere right.
=)
I like the “FED team”. Even in 2008, they pushed the market higher on Sep 11th. Nice having these people there.
I wonder what could be the first target after it brakes out.
http://scharts.co/P1P4eZ
1429 could mark the low of this corrective wave. Look for a sharp rally if we can move above 1430. If the market moves below 1426, we could be looking at a drop back to 1400.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/09/mondays-market-091012.html
Hm. A pullback here was certainly in order but the acceleration into the close shows how nervous everyone is. Lets hope that is all there is. I believe another down day tomorrow wouldn’t be too unsurprising.
Hi Tony – ‘Been reading the OEW blog for awhile. Many, many thanks for all that you do! Do you have any insights on a likely target and time frame for the conclusion of Int iv? Or is it too soon too tell? ‘Seems like it will be short and sweet. Your thoughts on this are gratefully appreciated!
Hi Tfr,
Agree … short and sweet
thanks Tony. With waves 4 being shorter than waves 2 during the current cycle..this pullback could be the entire w. IV right?
support 1422/27 yes