SHORT TERM: market awaits the ECB, DOW +12
Overnight the Asian markets dropped 1.2%. European markets opened lower but slipped just 0.1%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight again. The SPX opened unchanged from yesterday’s close at SPX 1405. After a pullback to SPX 1401 in the opening minutes the market tried to rally. By 10:30 the SPX hit yesterday’s 1409 high, and then pulled back again. After a dip to SPX 1403 the market bounced to 1408 by 11:30. Then another pullback to SPX 1401 followed by 2:00. A slight bounce into the close end ed the day at SPX 1403.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Cude added 25 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow, the ECB concludes its meeting before the market opens. Also, we have the ADP index at 8:15 and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30. Then at 10:00 ISM services.
The market opened flat today and remained within yesterday’s SPX 1397-1409 range for the entire day. Clearly this market is waiting for some sort of catalyst to clear this, now two week, contracting triangle in the SPX. Tomorrow the much awaited ECB meeting takes place, with a press conference shortly thereafter. This should be the catalyst.
Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03, SPX 1396/98 and the 1386 pivot. Overhead resistance is at SPX 1413/15, SPX 1422/27, and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum spent the entire day right around neutral. The short term OEW charts need to rally above SPX 1406 to turn positive again. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
“September 6, 2012 at 9:59 am Crude is lagging? ”
CL was at $97.30 and nobody was screaming sell. just sayin…. Guys I get it. It’s a I got mine – screw you kinda market.
Peace
H D
Maybe in ur trading room
Nice call
I’ve never felt like I had anything to prove here .I actually have a good time posting and reading the posts here.
I never post $ amounts made or lost and if I poached someones idea well I apologize.
I feel like I’m not a selfish person at all a bit cryptic sure.
I’ve obviously upset H D a bit and that’s unfortunate and I’m not looking to do that with my posts here.
I think it’s fair to say I’ve burnt u guys out a bit with my banter.
heres my post on neg div
leelee64 says:
September 6, 2012 at 10:27 am
a lot of unable sell orders @ 1429.00 and some guys just let em go. See what happens..usually it will go back up and trade thru
CL some neg div to deal with.. old and new shorts got the biz… all buy stops into 97.71 IMO
still $94-$98
True it was after ur post H D and I certainly did not scream sell.
But my fat old gut was right about them stops
Thanks Tony !
CL shorts are taken their day profits now. Nice jailbreak from the close
U guys have charts u see the action in CL today
Lee…whats wrong with Oil? They dont buy the news at all…
whoa just saw this magnus
It’s pretty amazing what it did today
U know it’s just still in the same range and maybe they’re selling their CL longs to buy SPX lol ? There was a nice neg div @ todays high almost across the board on my volume charts and it just stair stepped the rest of the day. Believe me guys were trying to swing some longs and just got man handled. It was a trend day as it turned out
CL 99% retrace of pit so far. Ill be doing a jail break at the CL close.. GL guys !
ES 3 tick range while CL did that
thanks Lee, enjoy!
Drop it like its hot C B !
I have a feeling that Metallica has more female fans at their concerts than anybody who cares about my CL musings here LOL. Im not upset Im just sayin
haha..well I hurt myself a few timestrying to swim with the CL-skarks ..so why keep doing that, right?…but you get pretty poetic with ur CL comments (that’s part of your charm
) so keep going Lee…you even got me reading Snoop’s lyrics, which are kind of fun…I saw him once with his possee at the Gurnee Mills (I think)
oops!..meant: “sharks” and “posse”…to make typos is human and to blame it on one’s keyboard is also human
There goes the pit low CL.
PP @ 95.44
.618 todays high yes low @ 95.58
an interview with D. Coxe
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/14248
engaging as always, but it does not talk about the elephant in the doll house: negative real interest rate
It just stays at the officiality of ZIRP but does not delve into the reality of negative
thanks Piazzi. So many interesting points. and “what people will, or won’t do for money’ in different cultures, being one of them…it’s really admirable how people respect their laws and traditions in India.
Zigzags (like I said) complete and KABOOM
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/09/06/elliott-wave-noon-update-video-zigzags-complete-and-kaboom-youtube/
“(like I said” ..) haa…that was fearless
Nice !
CL .618 back on the pit trade and at last nights Globex high…congestion revisted
Amen!
sweetness!
nice! , hey I would do anything (for a Klondike bar), but I won’t do any of those things : )
HD, fail, what fail? : ) You gave us the 1444-USA -ivot a while ago and from 1454-1426-1396 so ur number looks like the next stop right now…let’s “just do it”
oops..from 1354–1426-1396…sorry. .I blame it on my keyboard..
I’d like to try bobsledding someday! and email
It’s not the ‘fear’ that gets in my way, its the ‘stupid’ in me.
So if people who are either bullish or bearish make up 20%-25% of the volume traded .
Does it even matter anymore what “they” are.
Guys(humans) can say on a blogs they’re bearish and then turn bullish or visa versa how does that effect price in the real world ?
The market goes where it can IMO
thanks
CL pulls back .50% on the pit trade
ES on its highs
well put
Tony, shouldn’t the bearish count on the dow chart be removed ?
when the DOW makes new highs
Don’t spend all that money in one place guys
some guys taking profits here in ES/SPU’s what ever thats worth
a lot of unable sell orders @ 1429.00 and some guys just let em go. See what happens..usually it will go back up and trade thru
CL some neg div to deal with.. old and new shorts got the biz… all buy stops into 97.71 IMO
still $94-$98
thanks Lee
Thanks Tony
I know it’s sounds like babble to most people but it’s all I got.
Great job on the pos div re SPX Dip buyers unite !
thanks Lee. great stuff!
we have a legit rally going on in credit, esp in CDS. the IG CDX is 5bp tighter today. don’t remember the last time we got a move like that. i’d say that equates to about a 3-4% day in spoos normally
Thanks R C !
1455 ES possible then in the next 24 hrs by that estimate..yikes ! Nice !
whaddya think Tony, rally into Bernanke to complete Minor 5? Then probably selloff after he doesn’t do QE
I think you are on to something RC
if October-Nov is gonna have a dual cycle low, then we should see S&P sputter and roll over soon
Except one could doubt that today’s rally is based on QE hopes when considering today’s better than expected economic numbers. Bonds are down hard and copper and crude is up. The more puzzling reaction IMO comes from the precious metals which should have been crashing down as the reason they went up were related to QE hopes after the Jackson speech.
Agree, quess the market is still pricing in QE 3.
Crude is lagging?
Tony says:
“The bears are usually quite during uptrends.
Except when the pullback gets steep.”
May God bless them and multiply them, without fail, they have been harbingers of good long entries, when they shout the end of the world, it is the proximity of a cycle low of some degree
We expected a 3-yr CRB cycle low weeks ago, and CRB chart looks beautiful, that, IMHO, is all one needs to assess and re-assess one’s plays. It’s about money and you can see how money has been doing by picking any component of CRB and see how many %’ge points it’s appreciated since we expected a major low weeks ago
as expected and postulated, the trading (short-term) cycle low of S&P is set
Market is doing nicely with higher lows, which means I get to move stops higher
next trading cycle low window (oct 9-oct 30) coincides with the next swinging (intermediate) cycle low (oct 22-Dec 3)
this is all theoretical and statistical, of course,. That said, best long entries for me are when trading and swinging lows coincide
thanks Piazzi … October it is then
Hi Tony, Euro currently looks like it may struggle in the 126.2 – 126.5 resistance area. I remember you said 1.26 – 28 and if that broke then 1.33 – 35 My guess shorting in the 1.26 – 1.28 area would be worth it over the long term and perhaps through the EUO ETF. Clearly if the FED enacts QE3 then this would assist the Euro.
Do you think they are now more likely to do so now before the election than you previously did in recent months.
Thank you btw for keeping everyone on the straight and narrow with regard to the US equity perhaps having further to go on the upside! Cheers, Alex
Alex,
Agree the EUR seems to be stuggling a bit.
But I woudn’t short it except for a trade.
The USD needs to decline into 2013, which is EUR positive.
I think the ECB just put the FED on hold.
thanks Tony. I shall perhaps look to short the EUR around your 1499 pivot/level given the chance towards the end of the year. there is a major Bradley Indicator Turn date 22/12 for everyone’s guide. Maybe that’s where we take a bath going into 2013…..
12/21/12 is also an important date
Once again. It looks ready to soar. http://scharts.co/SdCSNm
Waiting for confirmation.
NYA target= well above 14,000. (DJI: well above 20,000).
For those who still don’t get it:
They won’t fix their budget. They will just keep printing money = more money to speculate (if that can be called money).
No matter how bad the economy is. More “money” means more speculation. At the end, it will be inflation (but isn’t what the central banks are trying to get)
Yes, it will end at some point, but it looks we are very, very far from it.
GL
Any other bears out there capitulating ?
I thought we were all bullish ??
The bears are usually quite during uptrends.
Except when the pullback gets steep.
No… just AstroFibo… Dow headed to 8k !!!
My NYA chart looks very exciting….waiting for confirmation !!
Tony, Im a bear but in Bunds …
seems like so far we’re getting some selling of the news in futures
Sounds like unlimited quantitative sovereign debt yield rebalancing by the ECB.
Think this could end the exit/default contagion scenario for quite some time.
Tony – would this change your target for 1530-1550 mid 2013. Also then would this change your forecast for a 50% correction?
Thank you
will it ultimately help growth going into 2013?
Morning Tony and crew,
I’ve decided to take a more positive note about Beranke, Draghi and the global central bank ponzi efforts. I feel a little like “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the [Printing Press].” It’s outta my hands, so why fight it. On to business…
Spanish bonds are ripping today, about 23bp tighter (to 6.15%) so far this morning. That’s after a not too shabby 16bp tightening yesterday. Spanish 10yrs are 68bp tighter since Monday’s close! Italy is also holding its own, with their 10yr about 41b tighter so far MTD.
Draghi’s currently proposed plan appears to forego outright yield caps but rather will target unlimited purchases (targetless?) in the short end, up to about 3 years. The condition is that the respective country must request assistance from the ESM facility. The ESM (is intended to be) setup to purchase primary issuance directly from debtor countries, whereas the ECB’s plan will target secondary market purschases. Between the two, the basis should be covered.
Post ADP # this morning, which just came out, I’m already seeing trader’s asking the typical “is a good number bad or good?” I guess we’ll see. Best of luck.
-rc
thanks RC … sounds and looks like the market likes it
Hi Tony,
Re your Shanghai chart.
I’m not learnt enough Re EW so wondering if you can briefly explain where this chart is at & how it gets labeled, etc, when Shanghai bottoms & goes into its 2013 rally?
Cheers
Pas,
This downtrend should eventually end “orange 3″.
Then an uptrend “4″ to be followed by a downtrend “5″ into the low.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SSEC&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p74871638650&a=71070208&listNum=11
OK thx Tony,
So when might it be a safe time to take a long position on the Shanghai?
Would it be after downtrend ’5′ into the low has turned back up & exceeded the ‘orange 3′ bottom?
Is it possible that the ‘orange 3′ bottom actually ends up being the bottom?
Cheers
after downtrend ’5′ into the low has turned back up
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1966ebe8-f77b-11e1-ba54-00144feabdc0.html#axzz25ffS7qNI
ECB will refrain from cap on bond yields
COMMENT AND SONG OF THE DAY:
yet another morose day for the market ; as the market close approached today each minute seemed maddening like the gyre motion of a sluggish fly entrapped in one’s private space. in the end, it was just another duplication of the last 2-4 weeks with a minuscule day trading range within a paltry monthly range for the spx. this is why it is important to tread softly and preserve one’s equity.
I am still looking for this market to break out to the upside, and the move could carry to 1466. A break below 1395 most likely means a downside move is underway.
Thanks,
Steve
Store4506
Sorry. Think I meant to add this:
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/09/wednesdays-market-090512.html
Thanks Steve. Good to see you back. Sorry to hear about ur family emergency & hopefully things are getting back to normal for you.
http://carlfutia.blogspot.ca/
ABC and upward 2 scenarios for the indices
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/09/05/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-9-06-12-abcs-and-upward-2s-youtube/
As for TRAN,
one has to really decide if one is using economy as his/her main catalyst for S&P trades or the liquidity
those are different paradigms and the choice is for the individual
along the same thoughts, while many US carriers are having a rough time, I find it interesting that Candians CNR, CP and WJA are just easing from new highs
IMHO, economy is of little importance when it comes to playing the market. It’s good to have good economy but not essential to get a rising market. I know it is hard to think that way given the constant barrage of economy this and economy that polluting the air waves but look mat what market has done for 3 years and counting and see how much of it was supported by economic fundamentals
It’s all about money regardless of who provides it and how
So true Piazzi. Thanks for your charts and technical levels! – theycertainly help us track the liquidity. And it’salso good to be aware of some major econ. trends as much as time allows, because, let’s face it, it’s a pretty time-consuming activity, so I am sure we all appreciate those of you guys who help us with that aspect as well. Thanks everyone!
“It’s all about the money…”
channeling my innner Lee:
There ya go R C !
http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/09/dow-theory.html
thanks Igor, interesting info. Also, thanks for your projections which you posted earlier 2day, nice work as always! One has to really wonder about that non-confirmation & perhaps look at what today’s US economy increasingly consists of…we create & transact a large portion of our GDP via internet downloads and a lot of them are high-priced items such as business services, software etc. In other words we , as individuals, or businesses can spend a lot of $$ without any modes of transportation ever being used in the process. So, maybe at some point we’ll need to re-examine that relationship between the Dow 30 and the Transports -a paradigm shift of some sort due to our increasingly service-based economy (?)
P.S. according to Bloomberg, China just announced that they’re gonna build subway systems in 18 cities – geez, that’s a lot of steel, they’re gonna need..
Yes, this is one way to look at things. I, actually, wanted to remind that Charles Dow in his studies of market trends used the railroad average composed of the stocks of 20 railroad companies only. Only later delivery, truck and other companies were included in $TRAN. I wonder if the change of the $TRAN structure may be a reason for the non-conformation we witness nowadays. On the other hand the Railroad Index is in complete agreement with the Industrial Index, so purists have nothing to worry about.
That’s interesting. thanks.
Igor: interesting info about charles dow / rails / new composition of the TRAN. i did not know that. thanks!
Not a problem. I like to dig dipper in hope that I find something that not so obvious but important anyway.
*1404 IMO bearish ST based on close. MA’s and cash discount. Especially if Dallas wins
I blame the Cowboys W on that fail! There was no weakness last night and gapping over 1410…..
Kudos to M1, igor, fiona, rc that were looking up. Like Lee said- the market goes where it can.
even if I missed it. It’s great for the USA!
DJI Time Ratio 161.8 2000 – 12.
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/09/dji-time-ratio-1618-2000-12.html
Down to 8000 – really ??
A down leg closer to 2007-2009.
Sure hope not…
…….looks more promising upside down.