wednesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation continues, DOW +4

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 Q2 GDP was revised upward: +1.7% vs +1.5%. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s SPX 1409 close. In the first few minutes it bounced to SPX 1412, and then started to pullback. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +2.4% vs -1.4%. Around 11:00 the SPX reached 1407, was short term oversold, and started to rally. The rally continued until 2:00 when the SPX hit 1414 and the FED released the beige book: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook201208.htm. After that the market pulled back into a SPX 1410 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds slipped 3 ticks, Crude dropped $1.25, Gold slid $11 and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Personal income/spending and PCE prices all at 8:30.

The market opened slightly higher again today, pulled back to within one point above yesterday’s SPX 1406 low, rallied to yesterday’s 1414 high, and then pulled back again into the close. The consolidation continues, despite the Q2 GDP report and the FED’s beige book. Over the past four trading days the SPX has closed at 1411, 1410, 1409 and now 1410. We may now need to wait until after Labor day to resume the uptrend.

Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and the 1386 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1413/15 and 1422/27. Short term momentum dipped to oversold today, bounced above neutral, then dipped down again. The short term OEW charts are now at neutral with the swing point still SPX 1410. Best to your trading! 

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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37 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Like I said Lee says:

    Hey Tony
    I see ur new support line on the 60 min SPX
    Every bear wants a pop to short every bull wants a rally to cover.
    I’m seeing guys claim they have swing shorts on now out of no where on the blogosphere.
    CL moved $4 and change from the resistance at todays low ..it’s an overlapping drama queen
    Have a great holiday !

  2. budfox9450 says:

    Mike – you really think this stock market is boring? That, probably mean’s,
    you would not like the Shanghia market, either then….hmmm

  3. Like I said Lee says:

    Thanks for the replies gents !

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Lza3NVH6Ig per the counts

  4. Like I said Lee says:

    anybody try buying a dip ?

  5. pas1968 says:

    Tony, you previously mentioned an example of a previous time when SPX traded in a similar fashion to what it has recently. What was that example you used? Cheers.

    • tony caldaro says:

      For the past 8 trading days the market has remained between SPX 1394 and 1410: just barely more than a 1% swing. We checked the weekly charts looking for a similar situation: a tight trading range and declining volume. And sure enough we found another period, such as this, during Major wave 3 of Primary I. That uptrend appeared to have stalled, while gradually creeping up, in December 2010. After the holidays ended the market took off to the upside. Labor Day is a bit more than two weeks away. 8/15 Tony

  6. Hi Tony

    I’ve seen software that gives this count. Is it a valid alternative count?

    http://scharts.co/TdropU

    Thanks.

  7. Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY FUTURE last traded price: 5274.65. Current 30-minute Trend: Down, Dynamic Trend SL: 5321.35. Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/

  8. ronini3 says:

    grinds up then a pull back (22), follow by the last hurrah for the recovery high (23). Need -DIV in the coming weeks..

  9. Like I said Lee says:

    Condi for President

  10. Like I said Lee says:

    Maybe if we take out the weeks low it might shake things up?

  11. mike7x says:

    The only thing more boring than this market is the Republican national convention. Don’t slam me. The Dems’ national convention will be just as boring. Boring infomercials. Let’s hope we see SPX 1465 by then though. Go Redskins! (BTW, thanks Tony!)

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