SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +101
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. European markets opened lower but lost only 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +4.2% vs +1.3%. The market opened lower at SPX 1400 and traded down to 1398 by 10:00 before it started to rally. The rally continued nearly all day, with 2-3 pullbacks, as the SPX hit 1413 around 3:30. Then a pullback into the close ended the week at SPX 1411.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term SPX support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at the lows, then rose to slightly overbought. Last night the FED reported a decrease in the Monetary base: $2.69 tln vs $2.70 tln, and a decrease in New home prices: $263.2K vs $266.9K. Today the WLEI was reported at nearly neutral: 49.9% vs 49.4%.
The market opened lower, dipped into the 1390′s area, then rallied. When the rally exceeded SPX 1409 we posted a green tentative Minor wave 4 label at SPX 1398. The 29 point pullback, from SPX 1427, is sufficient for a Minor wave low. Also the DOW hits its most oversold level, daily chart, since this uptrend began. Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and the 1386 pivot, with resistance at 1413/15 and 1422/27. Short term momentum touched overbought today, after the positive divergence, then backed off into the close. The short term OEW charts turned positive again, when the market rose above the 1409 swing point. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
If today’s rally did not complete the move from 1267, I think we are very close. I do not, however, necessarily think that this means we are going to revisit those lows. It is quite possible that the move from 1422, to 1267, and the move back up to this point, are waves 1, and 2 of a complex corrective wave from 1422. It is also possible that this was wave 3 from 667. It certainly looks like a rising wedge forming on the weekly chart.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/08/fridays-market-082512.html
Still a tricky uptrend
Thanks, Tony.
Waiting for your weekend update.
GL
Thanks Tony! Have a great weekend all!
really strange that SPY made a higher high (bullish engulfing) but $SPX did not…