SHORT TERM: early pullback then recovery, DOW -31
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and declined 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1413 close. In the first few minutes of trading the SPX dipped to 1409, then tried to rally. At 10:00 Existing home sales were reported higher: 4.47 mln vs 4.37 mln. At 10:30 the rally hit resistance at SPX 1413 and pulled back to 1407 by 1:00. Then the market started to drift up ahead of the FED’s FOMC minutes: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20120801.pdf. After the report the market started to rally. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1416, then eased back to close at 1413.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds gained 27 ticks, Crude added 50 cents, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold today before turning higher. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then FHFA housing prices and New home sales at 10:00.
The market opened lower today, bounced around under the SPX 1413/15 area, and then hit 1407. Yesterday we noted that SPX 1407/10 was an important area to watch. If broken Minor 3 may have completed at SPX 1427. There was no break today before the afternoon rally. However, we are maintaining a tentative green Minor 3 label on the hourly chart until either SPX 1407 is broken or 1427 is exceeded. If the market does break through SPX 1407, there is good support between 1392 and 1396 for a Minor wave 4 low. Breaking that support area, and then SPX 1375 would suggest the uptrend ended at 1427. For now, this 20 point pullback looks quite normal for an ongoing uptrend.
Short term support remains at SPX 1413/15 and then 1402/03, with resistance at 1422/27 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum bounced past neutral after getting quite oversold. The short term OEW charts turned negative right after the open, then positive again in the afternoon: the swing point is SPX 1411. Best to your trading!
Today we added the Greece ATG Index, brought back the NYA and the BDI indices, plus moved Copper and Platinium to page 9. Gold and Silver now starts at page 10 as everything has shifted one page higher. Enjoy!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Tony. Current ES not the most impulsive of w3s….w4 all the way down to 1377 ish?
Maximum Magnus … more than that and we’re probably looking looking at a nasty downtrend.
Agree.
Tony, my thinking is max pain. With EURUSD up and Bunds up and stocks down on boths sides…thats make it difficult for sure.
Hedge funds loading up?
Gold and Euro rallying, USD downtrending … risk on
Bonds were due a bounce, and SOX a pullback.
All looks quite normal
So minor 3 is complete now Tony? Now look for 1392/1396 for minor 4? And optiontimer, may I ask if you are still holding soxl?
It appears so JZQ
Ask me anything … I am still holding my SOXL and will be watching $SOX 374. I would likely exit on a close below 374 which could mean a SOXL as low as 24 depending upon how well it tracks the decline. I’m counting five up on $SOX and 374 is my wave 1 high – I do not want the semi’s getting comfortable below that swing high.
See support right around SPX 390
I see that 390 too … and I’d like for it to hold. However, I also see an eight day general market range contraction yield a tiny pop that held 2.5 days before reversing and wiping out the pop and the range in a mere three days. This decline has been the most impulsive action I’ve seen since before June 4.
I’m thinking that should we get a nasty decline and retest of the June lows, the semi’s should show relative strength and hold above that 374. That should be enough to cause the decline to be no more than a quick retest. If the semi’s get dragged into a nasty decline with the rest of the market … I hope I don’t have to deal with it …
Thank you Tony, Homeless.
+D on 60 min
thanks Tony
thanks C B
Im watching birds eat wild polk berries and its making me hungry for a pizza.
Is that wrong ?
they remind me of Algos they dont care that I watered those darn plants all summer in a drought…they just eat.
Lee, ur feeling used? don’t, its just nature:)) …hey if you’ve watered them all summer, then we know now “who’s awesome” – you are
) can you find a GIF image for that dog that you have there Lee?
Volume are lowest in years and 70% of trading is the bots….
so its just all kinds of fun folks reading these markets…
Learn to trade Commodities and u wont have to fish in a goldfish bowl .
These are not the droids you are looking for
Oh did I say that
Yuuup u did !
You mean like them thar GOLD stuff…. wow, I should totally learn about gold…
Just sayin….Don’t take it personally strictly business
Lee do they make CL mini contracts? 100k a nibble is a little rich for my po’ boy blood
Fo sho R C ! QM is the symbol
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/emini-crude-oil_contract_specifications.html
gracias amigo. who’s awesome? you’re awesome.
backtest (89) and give em the business?
If it does ..pile on and get nasty.
Thinking is soooo overated
If anybody is interested CL just traded the S2 @ 95.75 From Todays R2
nothing to see move along
Lee … yesterday’s buyers unloading today?
heck yes…
I see waves and Bee stings
hope they don’t go into anaphylactic shock
CLV Theres S1 at 96.52 + .382 back pit range @96.59 and yes afternoons low..96.52
Hurricanes..Wars and rumors of war..Saudis on watch for opening the spigots if Israel actually does go for a play date with Iran…..cats sleeping with dogs ect.
thats all I got
CNBC besides themselves with CL …even with mute on
TWC can’t even bail them out
I saw Mitt on screen with his banner of energy independence… that’ll be the headline why we broke.
Good luck with equities guys I didnt read DB’s calls on them so I as clueless as always
My last two public articles found on forexpros.com kitco.com and many other sites were Aug 8th and I think the 14th on the SP 500 rallying to 1425-1445 into the aug 13-22nd windows, then a correction. now here is your correction. I also wrote two bullish gold public articles in the same time frame saying to get long gold once 1630 is taken out, and we went long DGP on Tue morning
So for those who say Im a perma bear, Im not… just a simple guy trying to forecast waves is all… neither bull nor bear… just trying to make the reads
Near term 1399 key to hold for DA Bulls…
Best all
kudos trader!
Ur da man !
1399 has managed to hold the downdraft, so still BULLISH…
My last two private articles were found in ‘mature’ publications in 2001. I was all hopped up on meth and paint chips but ‘Like I said’ – oh… I won’t go into details here.
http://i.imgur.com/88Tsv.gif
Bear Market has started!
wow! just like that. maybe i didn’t get the memo after all… hah
1396 then? i’m glad i got the memo
Good story from the wheat pit, I bet Lee saw a lot of those in real life:
COULD YOU HANDLE THIS TYPE OF REAL TRADING?
http://bclund.com/2012/08/22/jam-job/
Thanks Igor, the sharks always know when there is blood in the water
Hey Igor ! Let me play Devils Advocate
as far as bclund’s story
1. You don’t hit an offer you Lift an offer you Hit a bid.
2. If the guy offering didn’t have a # on his offer and the other guy said take em all ..The all was never disclosed until the so called “hit” which is arbitrary at best.
3. The local who said take them all could of easily backed off and taken the maximum amount you’re held to in that situation if the guy offering physically had both hands in the air on the offer. A shot to his ego..sure but you live to fight again. Traders will shun other locals ONLY IF there’s no money to be had.
4. Not sure what that amount it was in the Wheat pit 20 years ago but in the SPUS it would of been 20 contracts 10 if you were a total dweeb back out artist. So 600 sounds a bit far fetched.
5. No names of the traders where discussed or Badges or clearing firms..Why not give the names if your’e going to take the victory lap seeing it was “20″ years ago.
I could be wrong but this sounds like a urban myth
P.s I have a lot of goodens
+1
Hey Igor
Sorry I see a name… Jeff Watson
I dont know him personally but I”ll ask my scum bag old BOT buddies about him.
Im on it !
https://twitter.com/jwatsonjeff
Commodity trader, surfer, poker player, art collector. Anarcho-capitalist with a strong Objectivist bent. Licensed amateur radio operator.
Sarasota County, Florida
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=256
I hear you Lee.
WOW! THx for the read guys. I feel like a total dweeb back out artist
What’s the most you’ve ever had on Lee?
“many are called, few are chosen,” right?? ..and we are so lucky to have Lee with us who is one of the chosen ones
…what a great place to ask questions about futures trading cuz Lee knows virtually everything there is to know about those markets…thanks Lee – interesting read! and thanks, Igor, for coming up with an interesting question!…I wish I knew more about those markets to be able to ask some specific questions cuz there is so much to learn about them..
actually I have one futures-related question for Prof. Lee already , when you have a chance Lee : how is that VPOC used? ..is it like the daily floor pivot perhaps..thanks.
Hey H D You’re no DBOA ! I was a small to average size trader in the pit but the most I ever had on was 83 S&P’s.. SPU to be exact… and I spotted my underwear.
Hey I need to knock it down from the blogs pit know it all to know it some .
Igor was cool enough to share the link. I feel like I went off a little as I never traded in the Wheat pit.
C B
The S&P pit was 95% local guys from Chicago and the surrounding suburbs and NW Indiana.
I am no savy market guy just a kid who lived in the neighborhood. There were some great traders that I was lucky enough to be able to watch and learn a little from.
Hey C B
Volume Point Of Control is what a lot of kids are using to trade ES that and the VROC also and I personally dont use it but some guys swear by it.
From what I understand its more of an acceptance/balance area like a Williams perhaps?
thanks Lee! Since it’s a daily value..I was wondering whether closing below/above it means anything for the session ahead..
And I greatly respect how modest you are in describing your successful trading career..that’s really what makes great traders ..humility and adaptability and you definitely have those traits.
Thanks C B
I had a decent run but I’m severely outmatched these days . Much wealthier and wiser men have moved on from trying to day trade this mess but I’m just a tinkerer now compared to the old days.
Do a Google seach for” VPOC on Twitter” I think ul find what ur looking for from the youngens
thanks Lee! Appreciate it. You gotta love all the innovators
“comparison is the enemy of joy” Lee, so why worry about “wiser and wealthier” ppl, which is not the point anyway, it’s how motivated we are to do things, that matters most. I read a good book once on major life changes & I liked the 4 questions that everyone going thru such changes would be wise to ask themselves: 1. who was I before some major change (like a change of job) occurred ? 2. Who am I now? 3. Who, I am afraid that I am now? And 4. Who do I want to be in the future? And it’s important to separate all those things cuz fear is not reality, for instance, as we know. And we should construct a mental picture of what that person that we’d like to become would basically do, and we should try to do all those specific things ourselves as we go through our day. Doesn’t it seems like a pretty effective way to look at any changes we want to accomplish? I think it can really help us focus on what we want to do & leave all the other noise behind. I wish you all the best, Lee, and hope you’ll really enjoy your transition cuz it’s all about the journey…You certainly have what it takes to accomplish whatever goals you may have. I can try to find the title of that book if you or anyone else is interested….sorry if this was too long..I tried to be brief.
GOLD Fibo 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/gold-fibo-618time-ratio-1382.html
Talking about divergences and trendlines:
http://stocktwits.com/message/9236981
It’s traderstewie’s opinion, not mine.
i did notice those earlier as well. definitely setting itself up for a ST rise. assuming longer term and bigger supports aren’t broken, which might have the strength to cancel those out
Gold is clearly not fading the QE theme today
Bee wave
haha disturbing.. but strangely funny. maybe just because it’s nick cage
I was trying to find just a shot of a bee but how could I pass this up ? I agree
Have fun guys !
LOL..that’s funny Lee.
Nice calls you guys! Thanks for the projections HD. Thanks Lee, Igor.
Hey C B
see ya @$34
haha…wow, that’s a very precise projection..nice Lee!..I see Cruel Bee waves coming..lol
new longs came in @ 1402 ESU
their stops are @ 1395
talk about being informed =)
Fly on a wall
these guys want it to stay above 1402.00 ESU till 10:00 am CST or they’ll start jumping their own stops if history is a guide
so far, looks like “they” win, muppets lose. the usual.
building investor confidence one day at a time…
RC – who are “the muppets” ? Are you looking to short ? My belief (FWIW – and take with a grain of salt) is that there will only be short term shorting opps over the coming months and being long will pay off exponentially (over being short) as most dips will be bought.
thanks Tommy, nope not looking to short. i generally don’t short in bull markets. my positions range from 100% long to flat (at the worst, but not short). just never know when you’ll get a random blast off.
i figure now that we “broke down” instead of accelerate downward we’ll rally instead. seems to be the MO of this market for a while. do the complete opposite of traditional TA signals. break support = buy. duh
it makes no sense to me that the DAX and IBEX can be down 2.28% and 4.86% the last two days, resp, and the SPX is down 0.40%. i’m sorry, we’re not that decoupled.
It might make sense if the flight of capital is from Euro to US
I am not saying that it is the case, just that it would be one explanation
except all the rally we’ve had the last two days occurred after europe was gone for the day. could be wrong, but that tells me it’s domestic days thinking we’re immune.
USA
of course, my thesis assumes there are humans involved. which might be a stretch
Lee! Thx. The move from 1416 – *1407 was .618 of the 1426-1406. I like a AB1-2 right here and think 1396 trades. JMHO.
whoops *1404
Thanks H D !
1396 SPX I like it ..keeps the carbon units thinking and the Bots well lubed
As have mentioned,
My cycle work indicates that
next trading cycle low is due in the Aug 28-Sep 18 time frame
next intermediate (or swinging) cycle is due in the Aug 28-Oct 9
The behavior of index so far is as one would expect moving close to a window for a cyclical low
Best lows for fresh hits are given when trading and intermediate lows coincide
Reviewing charts and cyclical moves, it appears that I had missed another scenario that would give an intermediate cycle low for the time frame of Oct 22-Dec 3
If this second scenario happens to play, then this move may be only a move into a trading cycle low and not a move into an intermediate cycle low. In such case, there may likely be another attempt to at least test the recent high
This is where Tony’s pivots and swing points become of very useful importance to me as I use them to determine shorter term trends and decide on probability of one scenario versus the other
All of this is theoretical and statistical of course and there never is a guarantee issued by the market
As Clint Eastwood said:
“you want a guarantee, buy a toaster”
thanks Piazzi … I’ll take a toaster oven
the guarantee will cover the toaster and, for the oven, you’ll be on your own
say, like a deductible
looks to me like ES formed a H&S, 60-min chart over the last week or so. sitting on the righ shoulder currenty. DOW already broke down
Thanks rc – yup see it now
German 10yr Bund: I believe we have crossed the line. We will see some more buying from here. All my German 10yr short positions now closed since this morning. Spreads during the day: Spanish 10yr +21bp, Italian 10yr +10bp v.s. Germany.
Daily
http://screencast.com/t/JPIoui4rTWg
thanks Magnus
Morning Tony
I’m a little surprised the market wasn’t able to get more rally out yesterday’s FOMC minutes. It has me a little concerned about how broadly the mkt is positioned. Might be time for a pullback no matter what
Bullard on CNBC toning down QE3 expectations
yeah, that’s true, but in all fairness that was this morning, and yesterday’s market action was less than stellar post-minutes. given how ST oversold we were i still would have expected more than a 7pt rally into the close.
Agree
Hi Tony,
Any thoughts on the next level for oil? I remember in the comments section a short while back you mentioned $96 but we’ve clearly gone past that now. I took a small short last night and am obviously too early but will ride it for now. I wonder if oil is perhaps catching a bid (maybe like gold and silver) because of the Israeli/Iran chatter.
Also the EUR/USD is bouncing at the moment and I am looking at shorting in the 1.26 – 1.28 area. From your FX update a while back you thought then that we could see 1.16 then a run back to the low 1.30s. Do we go back down to say hello 1.16 first in your opinion?
Am thinking we bounce in the US markets tonight and into tomorrow to reach your 1440 pivot area which would then be followed by the minor 4 next week into Jackson Hole where you and another person where wondering if there could very well be a positive ‘creative’ surprise which I would have thought would then provide the impetus for an attack on your next higher pivot into September to complete intermediate 3.
Thank you in advance for any comments, Alex
Hi Alex,
Crude has always been a bit difficult for me.
It is definitely one market that extends its trends, both up and down.
It is extremely overbought, but next resistance is $100.68.
The USD is now in a confirmed downtrend.
Next resistance for the EURUSD is 127-128, as you said, then 133-135.
SPX held 1407 yesterday, which could suggest a run to the 1440 pivot.
USD down, EUR up, SPX up all favor Crude.
good luck!
Thanks Tony – that’s a very helpful reply. Thank you for your time.
Farmers here are starting to harvest corn. The recent rains rotted the bottom of the corn stalks & farmers are being forced to harvest while the corn is still standing since any good wind will flatten them (& then you can’t harvest). The yield monitor on one of our neighbor’s combines has been recording yields ranging from as little as 20 bu/acre. He is estimating that he will probably average around 100 bu/acre on farmland that usually runs over 200 bu/acre.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_real_cause_of_higher_grain_prices/
…thought you might be interested in this ….sunspot activity hasn’t peaked yet, and higher grain prices extend at least two years past the peak.
Thanks Tony.
Today’s low of 1407 should complete wave 5 of the inverted corrective wave, and wave 4 from 1267. The high of 1416 actually satisfies my model for wave 5, creating a failed wave 5, but it is still possible to move above the 1426 uptrend high.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/08/wednesdays-market-082212.html
Tony,
PMs are looking good in past few days. Does that align with any of your counts? Thanks.
Scorp,
Yes Silver and Platinum both have a Minor B wave uptrend underway.
Like I warned yesterday,market did today what its supposed to do,screw ppl on both sides.Market going nowhere for now.Weak bulls might have some meeting minutes flavour at best and bears afraid to short.
Disagree. Market resting up for another leg higher real quick. Lots of bullish rotation – micro’s are moving for the first time in forever and dividend paying stocks are being sacrificed for “risk on” bets. New highs soon.. AAPL leading the way. Starting to get fun again!
http://carlfutia.blogspot.ca/
…..thought you might like this tommyboys.
Thanks Fiona – I follow Futia and while I agree with his conclusion I completely don’t subscribe to the Domed House non-sense. Most of these patterns are constantly adjusted to fit whatever premise the writer is trying to fit. This reminds me of Clif Droke’s 120 year cycle – which happens to be pointing straight down into 2014. If we happen to crash huge into 2014 it’ll be a coincidence at best. Droke has already been back pedaling most of this year as his “4 year cycle” was suppose to have already peaked. These kinds of patterns – imho – are ridiculous. On another note today’s IBD (page B2 bottom as I wasn’t able to copy it here) shows their short interst RATIO at 19.75 – a 5 year high. This isn’t to be confused with the nominal number whatever that is. This is their ratio based on P/C I think. I wouldn’t call real sentiment overly bullish here. I still have several buddies preaching the end of the world which I use as real time street data as its paid off numerous times!