SHORT TERM: early pullback then recovery, DOW -31
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and declined 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1413 close. In the first few minutes of trading the SPX dipped to 1409, then tried to rally. At 10:00 Existing home sales were reported higher: 4.47 mln vs 4.37 mln. At 10:30 the rally hit resistance at SPX 1413 and pulled back to 1407 by 1:00. Then the market started to drift up ahead of the FED’s FOMC minutes: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20120801.pdf. After the report the market started to rally. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1416, then eased back to close at 1413.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds gained 27 ticks, Crude added 50 cents, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold today before turning higher. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then FHFA housing prices and New home sales at 10:00.
The market opened lower today, bounced around under the SPX 1413/15 area, and then hit 1407. Yesterday we noted that SPX 1407/10 was an important area to watch. If broken Minor 3 may have completed at SPX 1427. There was no break today before the afternoon rally. However, we are maintaining a tentative green Minor 3 label on the hourly chart until either SPX 1407 is broken or 1427 is exceeded. If the market does break through SPX 1407, there is good support between 1392 and 1396 for a Minor wave 4 low. Breaking that support area, and then SPX 1375 would suggest the uptrend ended at 1427. For now, this 20 point pullback looks quite normal for an ongoing uptrend.
Short term support remains at SPX 1413/15 and then 1402/03, with resistance at 1422/27 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum bounced past neutral after getting quite oversold. The short term OEW charts turned negative right after the open, then positive again in the afternoon: the swing point is SPX 1411. Best to your trading!
Today we added the Greece ATG Index, brought back the NYA and the BDI indices, plus moved Copper and Platinium to page 9. Gold and Silver now starts at page 10 as everything has shifted one page higher. Enjoy!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market