SHORT TERM: consolidation continues, DOW -4
Overnight the Asian markets were relatively flat. Europe opened lower and ended -0.3%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight as well. The market opened at SPX 1416, then hit 1417 before pulling back to 1412 by 10:30. Then it tried to rally. The rally, if one could call it that, lasted for the rest of the day. The SPX worked its way back to the 1418 level, and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were flat, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum declined early, from thursday’s extreme overbought condition, then moved higher late.
The market opened slightly lower today, pulled back, then rose back to friday’s close. The entire range on the day was 6 SPX points. The pullback from friday’s uptrend high, SPX 1419, is thus far a minor one and only 7 points. Apple broke the all time record today for market capitialization by a single stock, in excess of $600 bln. When AAPL is rising every day, like it has recently, usually the market remains with a positive bias.
Short term support remains at SPX 1413/15 and 1402/03, with resistance at SPX 1422 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive, from under SPX 1370, with the swing point now 1408. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Dow Jones on the weekly chart indicating decline after testing resistance at 13.268k. If the index respects this support is likely to seek support in 12.867k
analysys link.
http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com
*1404-*1417 HWB 1410.50SPX
final 30 min rally to cancel out all the potentially negative reveral signs… ? sounds about right
These bots are gonna do what they can either direction.
Crickets at the lows
Howling at the highs
yesterdays low and S1 pivot.. Astrofibo in the house
http://i.imgur.com/R0eAa.gif
Hey news highs and a key reversal? with vix in the 13′s ….. ya that sounds about right. Always the least expected BS and manipulation. I am on revenge trade. GL
R1 hit in CLV
Some nice set ups I’m seeing (scum bag scalps)
will post later.
Oh microbiologist mind of yours working this out like a Swiss clock!
I wish I can see things so clearly when it comes to market. Two questions, if you don’t mind:
How do you know exactly when the trendline is broken?
What do you think of PM right now? Did you open any new positions? I dabbled a bit in NUGT yesterday at 11.15 and got quickly out at 12.34 today, but I’m not sure where it’s going now.
Are you from Siberia originally? We just came back from vacation, visiting Irkutsk for 2 weeks, my wife is from there.
Igor, I meant to post this at the end of your comments earlier today, but accidentally put it here.
“How do you know exactly when the trendline is broken?”
You should start with the proper charting of trendlines
I can only recommend to read chapters 13-15 of Edwards & Magee “Technical Analysis Of Stocks Trends” and then adjust to your time-frame and risk tolerance.
Gold is breaking out of the 3-month consolidation today. The next resistance is the descending trendline from the September highs resting currently in the 165 area.
From StockTwits:
PeterLBrandt
$GLD $GC_F Gold is flashing a “Best Dressed List” buy signal for me. I’m long, will add on confirming close.
“Are you from Siberia originally?”
I graduated Novosibirsk University. Say “Hi!” to your wife from me.
BTW, the most beautiful women in the world live in Siberia. Heterosis Effect.
Igor, would you happen to be a bit biased =)
Just a bit Tony.
It seems I am talking too much today, thanks God it happens rarely
I like it when u talk Igor !
for those who like (or dislike) candles, if we close where we’re currently at we’ll have pretty bearish reversal formations in AAPL. almost identical setup to what it had when it topped in april. (shooting star followed by a dark cloud cover a few days later at a new high). i think a close below around $65 or so counts for that one. also, the NAZ (and the QQQs) is putting in an bearish engulfing line pattern. the DOW and S&P as of yet do not appear to have any solid patterns on the day.
sorry close below $657. a close below $65 would certainly be bearish… haha
Thats where my scratch stop is R C @ $65 AAPL
Gracias Amigo
http://i.imgur.com/YKhrd.gif
IMHO AAPL chart is extremely bullish. It might experience some short correction and resume an uptrend. Feb 15 – point of reference.
Lee, you look much different today (in that pic) than you did in your 1970s avatar pic from a while ago
haha Lee, great gif
Igor, I agree longer term. any technician would have a hard time arguing against AAPL’s chart. however, in april it looked just as bullish, yet still spend the next month+ going down. that’s more the time frame i’m looking at. longer term – no question. cheers!
RC , we all do, we just don’t have access to the gif technology to document it so well… Nice gesture in that GIF, Lee..it says it all “everything under control in Lee’s land”
wow, this market has a nasty way of saying :”chasers need not apply.” some +d on 5 min though and 1430 tomorrow ..(?)
“in april it looked just as bullish”
No, it didn’t, at least to me. Evaluating the technical picture of a stock I start from a brief look at the adjusted set of indicators of mine with non-common settings for estimating chances of success for 1-3 week trade. Rate of success/failure of those without further analysis is ~ 2:1 The readings of those indicators on AAPL today resemble the February one and quite differ from April’s. Again, we are talking about probabilities here and I may be wrong, so, please, take it as just my personal view. I am enjoying your posts btw, cheers!
Dow Jones on the weekly chart indicating decline after testing resistance at 13.268k. If the index respects this support is likely to seek support in 12.867k
analysys link.
http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com
Tonys SPX 60 min EMA34 @ 1414.18
Tonys DJIA 60 min well…thats a whole different story
As Art Cashin would say “I more for the ditch” whoops I meant “Its not where u open its where u close…gl
thanks Lee!
look SPX 1417
HDIVOT
10 point hit- let’s see what they have in mind but I’m thinking same thing.
As far as pivots go on ESU
PP =1314
S1 =1410
S2 = 1405.50
S3 = 1397
That’s why they play the game
SP500 Fibo 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/sp500-fibo-618_21.html
That’s the spirit!
+1
boy, pretty lackluster breakout to new highs. making me wonder if as soon as we hit a new high all the algos switch into reverse
Futures driven SPX/NDX made new highs.
More cash driven DOW/NAZ did not.
Bit of a divergence.
AAPL not acting too great at its new highs either. what do you think about a 1425 top for this minor wave? does that fit any #s as well as 1440?
due for some profit taking … big run $628-$675 in 4 days
Tony any thought on the DOW chart and the bottom trend line break?
Cheers
First brokeout, then brokedown, while failing to make a new bull market high.
The first level to watch is SPX 1410, then 1407.
A break of these levels would suggest a Minor 3 top.
A break of 1375 an uptrend top.
Got it noted
Thank you
pbnj
some ppl say (of breakouts) : the first one is a fake-out, the second one is a go..
definitely maybe (?)..
Tony how about a little numerology. Primary IV low + SC2 low= 1435.53?
Good one HD!
And the 1440 pivot
HD and another relationship.
At SPX 1436 Minor 3 = 1.618 x Minor 1.
thanks for the numbers, guys! Also, the daily upper BB right there where your numbers are..
If trading ES was easy I could do it !
Later All
Who moved my cheese? Gotta adapt. I got nuttin either. Don’t see a pattern or algo to try. There’s always guessing though.
R2 in ESU @ 1422.75 R3 @ 1431
CL R3 @ 98.02
ZC u dont want to know
R2D2?
I wont touch em until after the next roll. ESU so Im as clueless as well I always am
With Corn being up 60 % + from years low and CL up 25% I ll stick with them
895 is .618 ZW
SPX is at WTF
HD,
That a new wave pattern for the SPX
H D
Nice !
DJI Fibo 38.2…76.4…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/dji-fibo-382764.html
Lets hope your recent track record remains intact…
Haven’t followed – has it been on or off?
Thanks
He’s been a great contrarian indicator…
Why so hard on astrofibo ?
He seems like a gentleman and doesn’t hit and run….
Like most D Bags that roll thru here.
Embargo on
Why is he acting so autistic ? He could at least give some kind of explanation ! You just don’t throw Saturn longitudes or Sun / Venus latitudes charts around with arrows pointing upwards or downwards and expect people not to react as a matter of fact, whether you are right or wrong !
I am still looking for a breakout to the upside. Looks like 1420-1421 is the first target, and then 1430-1441.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/08/mondays-market-082012.html
Thanks Tony!
By the way, with respect to that Daily Dow chart you just posted, would you mind telling me what we’re looking at? Other than the ugliest wave three advance in history an the MACD looking as though its doing a cross down, I see nothink … NOTHINK! says OT in his best internetese Sgt. Schultz
The daily chart actually looks okay, with a rising MACD and RSI.
But the hourly chart posted displays breakout or consequences as the DOW has huggest both trendlines since July.
The SPX, btw, is riding above the upper trendline.
Well I have just gotten comfortable in my bull suit, so I am hoping for a break UP and not a break DOWN. I’ll put the bear suit on again if I have to, but I look (and trade) much better in a bull suit.
http://www.elliottwave.com/subscribers/freeupdates/archives/2012/08/13/28-minute-Interview-with-Robert-Prechter-Its-A-Very-Tricky-Situation-for-Investors.aspx
Thanks Tony.
Thanks Lee. Interesting interview. Long-term he always makes sense cuz he is really a free-market believer at heart. That’s really refreshing, even though markets are not that free any more… Let’s hope they will prevail as Prechter predicts…
Lee, I understand fear sells.
But even mr. Doom and Gloom is bullish most of the time.
Just do not see it.
Nothing is predestined.
I also don’t get if he saw this latest cycle coming on the upside why did he short @ 1000 SPX ?
and again some where much lower than here ?
People send me his stuff from time to time.
Bob started looking for the low in Feb09.
He started shorting around 1050, I think.
And has been on and off short, stopped out mostly, all the way up.
He’s pretty savvy with his new view of socionomics.
Which should be the name of his website, and company.
Thanks Tony
I think I’ll stick to my strong suit….silly videos and 20/20 calls
really he shorted $spx @ 1000?..I was not not aware of his trading recommendations except what he said in his book…pretty sure he recommended buying US Treasuries…those have done well since 2009…and I am not familiar with his service at all …his LT philosophy on deflation seems to follow the laws of economics…Bernanke is from a whole different school and Bernanke has all the power so you guys are right when it comes to reality…in theory we need a deflationary event if free markets are to prevail….
Hey C B
I’m pretty sure that’s where he started then did the 200 % short thing afterwards at some point. I really don’t care what happens in the future anymore as long as it’s not the default of certain AAA municipal bonds and me having to have to wear suspenders .
Ok I usually don’t correct my grammar as it is usually exactly the way I talk. but that was “and having to wear suspenders”
Hey Lee, ur a sophisticated investor …so we can learn a lot from you on how to allocate things wisely…I’d guess taht munis are related to taxes etc…munis do seem pretty shaky now though, don’t they(?)…maybe a fact-finding mission to Bermuda to visit Assured Guaranty is in ur immediate future, Lee…..(don’t worry you canalways play golf there if things are OK, so you won’t waste the trip….and I am totally puzzled about the suspenders Lee…are you for them or against them? they seem like a risky asset too…I mean they could fail at any point…lol
Thanks Tony, Prechter seems to have a nice business going with that EWI, that’s an asset class as well..
I am against them !
A high % of my family suffer from Flatassitus pronounced Flat-ass-itus on my Fathers side. If I fall victim to it in my latter years I will consider implants
haa…that’s very original…and u have a great sense of humor Lee
that’s a great investment idea actually….they can’t take that stuff awayf from you…lol…just remember to take those b4 and after pics and smile a lot ..geez, it must be Monday Night Football that caused this “attention to detail”…baaack to charts now!!
Thanks for the update Steve.
Thanks Tony!
Hi guys! No signs of weakness in this rally yet.
Sector Breadth Weekly Report
http://buyonstrength.blogspot.ca/2012/08/aug-20-sector-breadth-weekly-report.html
Thanks Tony!
Thanks Igor!
Well done ..da both of yas
Just noticed this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=60&b=1&g=0&id=p51177657619&a=67036682&listNum=11
Should be an interesting next few days
Hey Tony, I couldn’t tell what was special about that chart. Perhaps something did show up correctly?
nevermind. sorry i didn’t see optiontimer asked the same Q already
Nice analysis , thanks Igor.
Thanks Igor for timely post and making sense of negative divergence. Does it makes sense what’s happening on the weekly and monthly charts? Even after this upside is over, they may still show negative divergence on the larger time frames.
Hi blubrd,
That’s how I use indicators:
1. An indicator is a derivative from price and shows data organized in different manner depending on a construction and settings of the indicator.
2. For that reason price is always an ultimate judge to me and indicators are only used for confirmation or non-confirmation of the price movement.
3. Price can continue its ongoing trend and indicators can change their readings because it’s only a mathematical interpretation of price on a given time-frame and changing with the price and time.
4. I want the price movement to be confirmed by indicators readings. A negative/positive divergence confirms a trend breakout when it happens but not a signal to open new positions until the breakout occurs.
5. Analogy with traffic lights: an indicator confirms price – green light; an indicator diverge with price – yellow light, but not a signal to action, because it can change to green again, so be alert; price changes direction (breaking trendline) in alignment with the indicator new readings – red light – close positions, or a new green light if you have been waiting for opening new counter-trend positions, because price and the indicator are in agreement for a trend reversal.
Not supposed to be a guide, just my approach to act indicator signals.
Not supposed to be a guide, just my approach to act on indicator signals.