SHORT TERM: new uptrend high, DOW +85
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gain 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 366K vs 361K, Housing starts were reported lower: 746K vs 760K, but Building permits surged: 812K vs 755K. The market opened slightly higher at SPX 1407, bounced to 1409, then pulled back to 1404 by 10:00. The SPX had closed at 1406 yesterday. At 10:00 the Philly FED was reported still in contraction mode: -7.1 vs -12.9. Nevertheless, the market started to rally. The rally continued into the afternoon when the SPX hit 1417 around 2:30. Then it pulled back to SPX 1414 before closing at 1416.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.10%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude gained 85 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum rose from neutral to quite overbought. Tomorrow, Consumer sentiment and Leading indicators at 10:00 on Options expiration friday.
The market opened quietly again today, rallied within 1 point of the uptrend high, then pulled back to support in the SPX 1402/03 area. After that it broke out of its recent trading range and made a new uptrend high as it hit SPX 1417. Then with short term momentum hitting extremely overbought the rally stalled.
The short term counts suggests Minute wave v of Minor 3 continues to unfold from SPX 1396. The market hit extremely overbought, short term, suggesting some sort of pullback or sideways activity should follow. Then the rally is likely to resume. Short term support is now at SPX 1413/15 and 1402/03, with resistance at SPX 1422 and the 1440 pivot. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing point now around SPX 1403. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
New email: oewtony@msn.com
Dow Jones on the weekly chart indicating decline after testing resistance at 13.268k. If the index respects this support is likely to seek support in 12.867k
analysys link.
http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com
Still long TNA now up 7.6% in 4 days…. target is 60.71 currently just under 57.60
Very nice
Cheers
To: 3xETF Trader:
Do you have an investing web page or are you an individual trader?
Thanks!
Will you buy TZA when the market is about to change, perhaps, next Tuesday or Wednesday?
Above response for 3xETF trader.
LIkely yes. Top should be around the 22nd, 83.27 or so on the IWM, and that is when I will be out of TNA if not a bit sooner…
*88 for a high today. Not gonna miss that. Have a great weekend, Stops r n. Que the billy squier
Hey Lee, ES is missing you. You were clearly 1/2 the volume! Peace.
Tony – wish to say “thank you” for the email, ref major OEW pattern
recognition of March 2009. That did, help me set the Bull market pattern, in my longer
term thinking. Stay safe, Stay young…..Bud
cheers!
Wheat did the cupnhandle 860-880 What beauty. Still liking 1417SPX
copper looking good this am
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN BANKNIFTY FUTURE last traded price: 10530. Current Hourly Trend: Up, Dynamic Trend SL: 10455. Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
Well, we finally broke out of that trading range. Looks like we completed wave 1 from 1395. Next upside targets are 1421-1423, and 1427-1435. Support is 1414-1411, 1407, and 1402-1399.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/08/thursdays-market-081612.html
It is also my opinion that $SOX has been the big play on this rally…a correction is due…380 looks like a critical support… that’s abt 8% below today’s high….if it fails, I would expect a full selloff.
In my opinion the medium term will be decided the next couple of days.
This is the same chart of yesterday ..http://scharts.co/RlUJRT
and this is a zoom… http://scharts.co/OoOXHD
I am still short from 13180 (dow) …stop as usual.
GL
Interesting how quiet the commentary is tonight. Hard refuting what unfolded today. What are we saying for odds on B wave now? If I recall you last lowered odds to 20% Tony? Currently holding nice size of IWM Sep calls and no sells today .. though was ready to take some off at 814. Pullback tomorrow would be fine.. maybe an opportunity to add as RUT is ready to play catch up.
Market appears to be breaking out of the upper trendline
Still long TNA from 53.30 as indicated here Tuesday. Sold 1/2 at 56.