SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +3
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.7% as well. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported positive and higher: +0.8% vs -0.5%, plus the PPI was reported higher: +0.3% vs +0.1%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1409, touched 1410 in the opening minutes, and then pulled back. The market had closed at SPX 1404 yesterday. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported lower: +0.1% vs +0.3%. By 10:30 the SPX hit 1405 and tried to rally again. Around 12:00 the SPX hit 1410 again, and again began to pullback. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1401, then bounced to end the day at 1404.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds lost 17 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum was quite overbought today before declining. Tomorrow, the CPI at 8:30 along with the NY FED. Then at 9:15 Industrial production, and at 10:00 the NAHB housing index.
The market gapped up at the open today making a new uptrend high in the process. It then bounced around until around noon, after that it started to pullback. Despite the new uptrend high the market remains in its choppy drift higher. Currently there is nothing to add to the chart and count posted yesterday.
Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and the 1386 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1413/15 and 1422. Short term momentum was quite overbought early in the day, then ended below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing point now around 1398. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Still long TNA with new stop at 52.80, long from 53.30… seeing 58-60 possible (TNA is 3x bull Small caps)
Nice entry XXX
hee hee
+1
looks, intraday barrier triangle. pop and run 1408′s and 1.618 1412.50′s
triangle did not materiaize. Still long bias for me.
Lee- might be good time to buy TLT now that all those guys got stopped out. i like taking the other side of frustrated and angry people
I see a textbook IHS forming in copper (1 mo timeframe). will have to hold the neckline of course, but something to keep an eye on
Thanks RC ! re TLT
I always take the other side of frustrated/ angry people but I would like to keep my wife out of it. I still haven’t touched ES in weeks now..CL doing its snake dance higher it seems with stop sniffing algos .
The song remains the same. GL all !
BTW CL wars and rumors of war..
Iran/Israel I presume?
Just stumbled on the Saudi headline – telling all Saudi citizens to leave Lebanon immediately. if that’s related
yessum..
.algo’s and millennial disputes running side by side
Good read on long term equity returns I came upon today and I really recommended it. Only a few pages. I usually like their stuff. I think his take/conclusion actually seems pretty consistent with Tony’s longer term count on equities. cheers
https://www.gmo.com/America/CMSAttachmentDownload.aspx?target=JUBRxi51IIBopZakKqLplkSPu6PWy8IYlWZlF9wGOhpH4u6Bb7ac58I5rkIUY44faaFdF9aOsz5%2bGC%2bmcvNRJz5yCAhRZUlL1OiylntYmwB668XC3MDYjtWyadqxrBdVChyBBvdvpD4%3d
nice analysis RC
Good one…love Grantham – thanks!
10 Year German Bunds (141.53) and Ger-Spain = -15bp. We will have a retrace and then I will add further to my shorts. There will most probably be a buy the dip here but the Spain thing will be solved sooner rather than later and the Spain shorts will be closed meaning dump the Bunds.
German September options have an implied volatility around 8.2%. That implies a 2 Standard deviation weekly range of 164 ticks. With this week opening @ 143.48 we get a 2Std.dev bottom around 141.84 and a monthly bottom around 141.06.
W3>W1=141.53.
http://screencast.com/t/dsCMn7U6
8/14/12 Market Big Picture Update:
http://marketbigpicture.blogspot.com/2012/08/81412-market-big-picture-update.html
I have found that tight price action with tight closes is usually accumulative if occurring during an uptrend and distributive dring down trends. I would bet my chips on a break to the upside here, but given the choppy, overlapping character of the entire uptrend since the June 4 low, my confidence level is a paltry 50/50. Neither an upside thrust or downside collapse would surprise me at this point.
I agree with CB and Lee, however, that a new uptrend high that can’t hold for even five minutes is not bullish and certainly implies that there is little gas left in the tank. Market Vane hit 63% bullish and that is higher than we were at the Spring highs. We may need a good 10% pullback to get traders and investors back into the proper dismally inspired buying mood.
Tops are a process – bottoms are event
Cheers
It is all about supply and demand … The Buyer versus The Seller … I focus on what they are doing
nice!
folks are thinking CPI and Empire number put QE back on the tabl. (just as GS says QE is dead till next year. ha). Futures up a little since the horrendous numbers so seems the mkt might think QE isn’t dead yet
News doesn’t drive the market – market drives the news…
Usually, but not always.
Tony
Just noticed how the price just touched the lower trend line on the dow chart yesterday.
This is really an interesting time to see how that is shaping up.
Do the odds increase any as of yesterdays continued consolidation toward the appex?
Thank you
Cheers
Actually no, lowered it to 20% probability with yesterdays’ new high.
But market still has not cleared.
Morning, Tony
Wild night in UST last night. 10yr widened out to 1.79% around 1am at the London open, came back in to about 1.75% and has been trickling wider this morning back to 1.77%.
I think the rates market is finally starting to get a little jittery about where we are right now.
RC … very nice … perfect … was looking for at least 1.75%.
Would expect the Bond bulls to buy the dip soon.
Then we should have a good setup to start the Supercycle Bond bear market.
i have been hearing the “buy the dip” chatter picking up
RC … would expect at least a 20bps drop from where ever it tops on this rally.
Will be adding to shorts there.
…….he who laughs last…….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9473476/World-shipping-crisis-threatens-German-dominance-as-Greeks-win-long-game.html
Thanks Tony.
nice one Fiona
Thanks, Tony.
Do you know something abt the Executive Order 11110 ? How true it is that Kennedy was planning to desmantle the Federal reserve machine ?
uncertain
While this still looks like the start of a move to the upside, today’s high may have completed a 5 wave sequence from 1354.65. If we go through 1395, the market could be headed to 1380. If it holds, I am looking for 1418-1420 next.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/08/tuesdays-market-081412.html
Hi Steve – what is your potential time zone for a 1497 target – in line with Tony’s nearer the end of the year? I can understand both 1426 and 1497 as levels but I don’t see them competing with each other to hit their respective levels at the same time. Cheers, Alex
Hi Alex.
While my model does not project time frames, the latter part of this year seems reasonable given the slope of the trendlines from the 1267 low. I think that if the market does break decisively to the upside, the move to 1497 could be rather quick, making it there before the end of the year.
Whether this wave ends at 1426, or 1497, is important because of where the next wave would project. I have 1422 as the end of a 5 wave sequence from 667, which would then be wave 1 of the current sequence. If this wave, wave 3, ends at 1426, I would expect wave 5 to carry only slightly further, and may never make it to 1497. With that being the completion of a sequence from 667, we could see a sizable correction, and given that it would not result in a new all-time high, the chance that this is a corrective wave from 667 increases. This could result in a new low below 667.
If this wave, wave 3, reaches 1497, it would most likely project wave 5 in new all-time high territory, much as Tony sees it.
I hope this helps.
Steve
it does very. thanks for the detailed answer. i shall be watching 1395 today.
ASTRO Longitude Speed Sun…Venus,,,
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/astro-longitude-speed-sunvenus.html
TNA ETF Long 53.30 today, stop is 51.80- Target is 58-60
Thanks Tony.
So we made a higher high today, and we closed below today’s open, and below yesterday’s close…looks like a serious loss of momentum..
+1
yipee!! Our cool kid Lee was here
Thanks Lee – it’s so sweet of you to stop by!! So there is a chance??…lol.. cuz this anticipation is starting to make us really, really crazy..pull some strings Lee, would you? thanks!
sorry, couldn’t make you smile today ,kiddo… I’am just not very good at it..thanks anyways for ur help Lee. Appreciate it as always. Enjoy the rest of ur summer.
Thanks Tony. Nice sequence. I think I understand what UR saying. Mr Market making sure that all the nice hard-working folks get a few more undisturbed days off in the Hamptons. =)
Including Soros, who I understand is remarrying.
yeah, I think the newspapers were asking over the weekend : who the lucky gold-diger was? =)
82 and around 40
that’s interesting Tony…billionaires use a different scale, though :50 is the new 35, 70 is the new 50 etc. =) but actually age difference is not as big of a deal as it seems …every time I see James Baker III (the politician), for instance, I think he’s incredibly cool and he is …well, 82 now…
Gee the last time equities were so serene was during the Chinese Olympics, and then in Sept. 2008 all hell broke loose…but it’s a different world now.. =)
CB, last few closes:
1401, 1402, 1403, 1406, 1404, 1404
watching ur 10 yr UST money back in demand
TLT a lot dip buyers just got stopped out…most have been averaging in since Tuesday IMO