SHORT TERM: market consolidation reaches day 4, DOW -39
Overnight the Asian markets were relatively flat. European markets opened lower and declined 0.4%. US index futures were also lower overnight, and the market opened slightly lower at SPX 1404. The SPX had closed at 1406 friday. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 1402, then bounced to 1405 by 10:00. After that the market pulled back to SPX 1397 by 11:00, and tried to rally again. The rally carried the SPX back to 1405 by 3:00, then dipped to end the day at 1404.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold slid $11, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum hovered around neutral for most of the day, and was eding higher in the close. Tomorrow, Retail sales and the CPI at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10:00.
The market opened slightly lower today, dipped, then rallied. But it stayed within friday’s SPX 1396-1406 range. In fact, the market has stayed within that range for the past four trading days. Exciting isn’t it.
After reviewing the charts this morning. We updated the SPX hourly chart with a potentially bullish count, which should lift this market to new bull market highs. From the SPX 1329 Minor wave 2 low, we can now count four Minute waves: 1392, 1355, 1407 and 1396. This would suggest the market is in the early stages of a Minute wave v advance which should carry the SPX to the 1440 pivot.
Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and the 1386 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1413/15 and 1422. Short term momentum is rising. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing point now around SPX 1396. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
http://carlfutia.blogspot.ca/
In all seriousness, how can any decent technical analysis qualify this action of late “impulsive” ?
you mean the 10 point dip? definatley not impulsive. agree. 1355+55 1410. Normal PB so far. JMHO
Added further to my 10 year German Bund short based on germany-Spain spread further decreasing today based on “rumors” that spain will officialy ask for ESFS/ESM support as early as this week and German and French GDP not as bad as expected but not good either meaning ECB will act after a september 12 German court decission on wether ESM is within German constitution or not. Court decission will be reasonably vague for a green light.
Wow 5 drives to the top
Is this like 4th attempt to break 1408?Smallies weak,market looking for excuse to drop hard.See nothing bullish here
SP500 Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/sp500-time-ratio-1618_14.html
I’ll take the opposite side of that bet…
AAPL Time Ratio 123.6…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/aapl-time-ratio-1236.html
Hey Tony,
Apologies if you’ve answered this in one of your past posts, but at what level would you cancel the 30% probability bearish count?
This feels like a seriously unrelenting meltup, and the weak trading volume by humans is no match for the upward march of the algos. The lines point up and the algos are going to go that way until told otherwise. The lowest non-holiday volume in 5 years certainly isn’t going to turn things!
New uptrend highs today, let’s drop it to 20%.
The market, oddly enough, has been using the rising upper diagonal trendline as support.
New bull market highs would drop the probability to zero.
thanks Tony. that’s kind of about what I was thinking. cheers!
looks like there’s nothing stopping AAPL at this point
or GOOG
Famous last words !
Watch what could be a major double top.
maybe. but we could give the same warning for any stock that’s about to pass a prior high. and only a very small percentage of those end up stopping in a double top. just sayin
ZW off 100 from Highs, bull flag look. C=A 840
we finally gapped up. short term top?
8/13/12 Market Big Picture Update:
http://marketbigpicture.blogspot.com/2012/08/81312-market-big-picture-update.html
retail sales ex autos +0.8% vs est of +0.4%. last month revised from -0.4% to -0.8%.
so the actual $ of retail sales was exactly as expected, but it is treated as a beat. gotta love the “efficient” market.
same thing happened with the GDP
NAS Fibo 38.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/nas-fibo-382.html
SP500 Fibo 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/sp500-fibo-618.html
Hey – you said this last week – again!
One note for the bears though
copper still not confirming SP 500 move…. at some point we do have some divergences to deal with.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p17747902089
Copper line is near the bottom in black, usually leads or moves WITH SP 500… lately its lagging hard… so we must be in the final stages of the rally from June 4 lows….
1440 was the Bear market beginning 2nd leg I think in 2008 as well
Should be fun
You know David, bear goggles and beer goggles have a lot in common. You usually wake up with regrets.
lol, I hear ya brother. I dont trade the indices, or very rarely… so no regrets. Its forecasting, its fun, I get some right some wrong like all of us… and yes, I like to be obnoxious…lol
Best to your trading HD
copper looks like it could be forming the right shoulder of an IHS today
Yep lots of permabears here – love it! Perfect set up for a launch to SP 1800+ by end of 2013…
We didn’t get the breakout today, but perhaps tomorrow. I still see a move higher. 1497 looks good to me.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/08/mondays-market-081312.html
55 trading days from June lows is Aug 22nd, so I am watching around that date for a trend change… meantime, 1425-1445 seems probable, and hell… some are talking a spike to 1490′s!!
hooray up she rises!
Best of luck all
“hooray up she rises!”
bear maket? what bear market ..let’s just cancel the whole thing..lol…David ur making me bearish right now
..on June 7 , according to AAII, 45% of indiv. investors weare bearish..now only 27 % are bearish…
a little soft shoe and tongue in cheek my friend… lol
its an overlapping crazy rally, but it is what it is til it aint. people smarter than me are talking 1500…
guess we will see
Gotcha David. Nice copper chart. thx.
thanks Tony.
what was that saying again: “low volatility begets high volatility and vice versa”
“In fact, the market has stayed within that range for the past four trading days. Exciting isn’t it.”
..gee, we havent’t seen volatility squeeze like this for a while…it better be something big.. http://screencast.com/t/igE1tP52qc
Thanks Tony
The last couple days look’s like the start of the slow grind upwards. Where, when the hourly macd is bullish the markets go higher and when the hourly macd is bearish and still above the zero line you get a lot of small body candlesticks with long wicks out the bottom. Looks like the hourly macd will go bullish tomorrow.
“From the SPX 1329 Minor wave 2 low, we can now count four Minute waves: 1392, 1355, 1407 and 1396.”
Tony 1396 doesn’t pass my pivot test at all.
On your daily chart a corrective wave 4 pivot should touch or get close to the 34 day ema.
On your hourly chart, it would:
1) cause the RSI 5 to be more deeply oversold.
2) touch the 89 hour ema
3) cause the hourly macd to drop below the zero line.
markets are not always picture perfect
Thanks Tony
Markets aren’t picture perfect. I agree they’re perfect sobs, that’s why I respect them.
Indicators and ema’s tell me no pivot. I try to draw the next wave’s predicted trading channel out of the 1355 1407,1396 pivots: Slopes up, but, too narrow. I regard it as highly suspect.
ie 1407 and 1396 aren’t pivots on the minute timescale. I can’t buy them as pivots in any way shape or form. Shaking my head. Nope!
Don’t mean to be a pain in the ass, but I get a kick out of helping you move up in the elliot wave rankings.
Word Up? LOL
Just curious, is your bearish count still at 30% probability or has that changed at all today?
still
2 was sharp and 4 is flat. Nice Tony.
Thanks Tony.
Looks compelling! I like that count a lot. Hope it plays out just like you say, but I don’t mind staying in this range a little longer and let my options expire