A followup to our most recent report: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/04/10/feds-monetary-base-quick-update/. Recent data suggests Primary wave IV, of the monetary base, bottomed at $2.605 tln. The last two bi-weekly reports have displayed an overall increase of $90 bln. Which usually indicates the early stages of another rise.
Since the fifth waves of each significant wave, this is Primary V, have all been quite short. It is difficult to estimate where the monetary base will top out. Our original estimate for Primary III was $3.0 tln. A small five waves up from the recent low could achieve that level for Primary V. We are still not expecting a new QE program. However, the FED has been quite innovative these past few years, and may surprise with another program that does not dramatically increase the balance sheet.