SHORT TERM: consolidation continues, DOW -10
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were slightly lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 361K vs 365K, as was the Trade deficit: -$42.9 bln vs -$48.7 bln. The market opened at one point below yesterday’s close at SPX 1401. At first it dipped to SPX 1400, and then began to rally. At 10:00 Wholesale inventories were reported lower: -0.2% vs +0.3%. The market rallied to SPX 1406, a point below the uptrend high, and began to pullback again. The pullback lasted until noon when the SPX hit 1399. Another rally attempt fizzled out at SPX 1405, then the market pulled back into a 1403 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum touched overbought early, but spent most of the day around neutral. Tomorrow, Export/Import prices at 8:30, then the Budget deficit at 2:00.
The market opened about flat today, edged up above yesterday’s range, then went sideways for the rest of the day. The bullish uptrend count we have been tracking continues to look good while this market consolidates its recent gains. The recent 11 SPX point pullback fits within normal pullback parameters for this uptrend. And if it’s done, the market should make new highs shortly. The SOX index made a new high today, and 10YR yields rose to a new high for their uptrend as well. But keep in mind the OEW 1386, 1372, and 1363 pivot scenario noted yesterday.
Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and the 1386 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1413/15 and 1422. Short term momentum remains hovering around neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive, with the swing point now around 1391. Best to your trading!
NOTE: having some problems with caldaro@msn.com, to contact me directly please use oewtony@msn.com for now.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
+10pts from the low…. nah, that would be too easy!
I puked. cya’s Sunday. I’ll bring my ‘A’ game
Hey H D
TRUE DAT !
silly isnt it ?
it was again
I guess the answer to my “will we finally close with daily RSI below 70″ question would be – No.
haaaaa dude I wish I was born smart instead of so good looking.
hahaha hey, at least you’re halfway to greatness
CB: you can get RT futures here for free:
http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-futures-charts
Thanks RC! Nice !
what would be the count if we gap under 1313 on Monday ?
that was a joke….
CL retraced 76.40 on the day but with SPX action who cares
I’d like to vote for joke#2 re: “CL – “but with SPX action who cares”..lol.. that’s really funny
Hey C B
Nice pop in CL eh ?
trade back to the open and 76.40% then close above the 23.60%
thats Friday
Hey Lee, well if you were in that pop then yes it’s nice and ur a genius…
4 me it’s still in a downtrend intraday but they came pretty close to reversing it at that ridicu- close..ur right stuff like that happens on Fridays…so God pls give me the strength not to curse right now ..
meant this
not 
sorry..typo..Lee…cuz it takes a genius to catch that eod stuff that just “happens”
Lee, I have delayed futs quotes..where did it close, can you tell us pls.?
hah fair enough bud! good things come in 3s?
C B
U want a pit close on CL ? 92.93
last 93.35
I was no genius I just didn’t chase.
thanks Lee! Oh great, that pit close 92.93 jibes with my hourly downtrend (sigh) ..and .maybe, just maybe FRI afternoon is NOT the time for ppl like me to trade oil…still a short for me though on 60 min …nice job Lee!! it;s good to be you and be able to live and breathe that stuff like you do
Lee, no love on your directional expecations for the next “big move”? I’m flat right now and teetering. Want to put on a little something at the close but this painful uneventful market is giving me nothing to work with. Maybe some insight from CL…?
Hey RC
ES is painful at it’s best this is just amazingly awful.
I won’t trade 3 of 3′s or 3 of C’s up in ESU anymore ..to some it sounds exciting but to me it’s something to avoid completely..I am probably the worst ES trader here.
Where did our market go? *1404 is tuff – looks sick IMO and am looking to short
let ur fingers do the walking
I saw somewhere that this week had the lowest volume for a non-Christmas holiday week since Oct 2007.
it’s true
big move coming
and which direction is that move going Lee?? c’mon, don’t leave a poor dumb bond guy grasping in the dark.
You guys want me to buy it and sell it for you also ?
well, since you’re offering…
Lee – i’ll buy you a beer when your passing through Carolina next time on your way to the beach
Charlotte is a great town
Cheers
Cheers PBNJ !
I miss the friendly and in most cases very good looking folks down that way !
SOX looks like a rising wedge to me the last 4 days. Finally putting in that 5th wave…? I think about 407 was where 1 = 5.
negative divergences too
pshaw. nothing a big monday rally couldn’t clear up.
I have added more to my short 10yr German Bund since the 143,65 showed resistance today.
Daily:
http://screencast.com/t/q7bbPIMMSTzx
Morning, CB. Posted my answer on volume indicators in Wednesday thread.
GM all. Thanks Igor. Really appreciate ur research. Inetersting and puzzling. ..will need to read some more about those two..
Great trading thoughts Lee, RC, Alex. Thanks guys. Thanks Tony.
10pt bot levitation, like clockwork. can it remain this easy?
Hi Tony, Doesn’t this recent market action count as more choppiness and something to be extremely wary of? Obviously you have covered this by saying to pay careful attention to the support pivots but the market seems to be struggling to break the 1402 resistance you had mentioned and it’s starting to looking more like an ending diagonal (ABCDE)?!
Alex,
So far normal consolidation while waiting for news.
SOX is doing well.
really curious to see if we’ll stay low enough to actually cause the daily RSI to finally drop below 70 at the close.
8/9/12 Market Big Picture Update:
http://marketbigpicture.blogspot.com/2012/08/8912-market-big-picture-update.html
Morn
ZC that was fun eh ?
CL Stalled out right under Tony’s $95 I’d watch it just in case it foretells a rude mood
ES same support and resist eh?
was looking that way. though after the crop report it looks like Mortimer might be selling below that support. ES at 1393 now – 11pts, uh oh!
RC
Right to ur support !
yep, and it’s being bought pretty aggressively. go figure!
U guys have a great weekend !
)
Little Fall preview in the air
Get er done !
http://i.imgur.com/RUvVN.gif
haha that gif is awesome.
enjoy your weekend Lee. i’m heading to south haven this afternoon for a relaxing weekend on the lake. with my luck it’ll probably rain the whole time. but it still beats staring at a monitor! cheers
U also RC
Ul get some light rain but It’ll be out of here for most of ur weekend and then be beautiful
Seriously watch the rip tide…it’s been brutal this whole week
Boy, if I didn’t know better I’d say that looks like [yet another] 10pt range in ES. Must be buy-the-dip o’clock now
CADUSD Time Ratio 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/cadusd-time-ratio-618.html
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY FUTURE last traded price: 5328.Current Hourly Trend: Neutral, Trend Up Above: 5393.4, Trend Down Below: 5318.55. You may visit http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs?ref=ts. Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
Thanks, Tony.
took short term setup tna long from 57.96 home. only trading short term setups as i want to be nimble in case of an unexpected drop to spx 1280-1300. remaining only 25% long; down from 95% long.
no elliott proprietary short term trend indicator;”PSTT”, sell signal ye but i am anticipating such.
NIKKEI Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/nikkei-time-ratio-1618.html
Tony what do the green numbers 96 and 98 represent on the top of the first SPX chart? Thanks – L.A. Dad.
Read wednesday’s update
The hourly chart shows the MACD cross but we’re not seeing much of a pullback, or was the 10 pt pullback yesterday the most we’ll see here?
no, not concerned
Tony
Hello and good morning
I have been reading your archives and mainly trying to read up on the ROC signals.
My question is this – does your ROC indicator also signal when markets are now trending down – ie signals time to sit out? Just curious.
Thank you
pbnj
Thanks Tony!
Regarding your QE post/response on the Wed update – are you concerned about this market if we do not end up getting any QE? It seems to me like it’s still very much a traders’ market, and we know how fickle that contingent can be.