SHORT TERM: markets gaps up, DOW +51
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1400, the uptrend high, and continued to rally. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1404, pulled back a couple of points, then hit 1407 by 1:00. After setting up a short term negative divergence the market started to pullback. At 2:30 FED chairman Bernanke’s speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120807a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1401 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Bonds lost 17 ticks, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold added $1, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence at today’s highs. Tomorrow, Productivity at 8:30.
The market gapped up for the fifth time in the past nine trading days. The SPX opened at the uptrend high, 1400, and continued on to 1407 before pulling back in the afternoon. With a short term negative divergence now in place on the hourly charts, a 10+ point pullback is possible. This market has had a nice run, from SPX 1355-1407, with nothing more than 5 and 6 point pullbacks.
Internally: all 9 SPX sectors are in uptrends, market breadth (NYAD) continues to make new highs, and nearly all of the foreign stock indices are in or appear to be beginning uptrends. This uptrend is starting to gain upside momentum.
Short term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1402/03 and 1413/15. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing point around SPX 1385. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high
LONG TERM: bull market
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Daneric’s Elliott Wave Update 7. augusti :
“I am bearish on the market long term even if 1422 SPX is breached to the upside. First, we have a count of Minor 2 that sports a bearish rising wedge on lower volume. Second, even if the market makes it above 1422 SPX for a new Primary [2] high, the market would actually be fulfilling an even larger rising bearish wedge. In either case both patterns at the smaller Minor degree or at the larger Primary degree suggest dramatic price collapse is coming after the completion of the pattern. If Minor 2 stays intact, the price collapse should take the S&P initially towards and then below 1300 SPX. If the S&P manages a first higher high above 1422 SPX to create a new Primary wave [2] high, then a price collapse of epic proportions is possible. In this case, a price collapse of the markets would take the S&P back toward 1000 SPX.”
Thanks for reminding us that Daneric is still bearish on the market since 2009.
if we close ovr 1404 we gap up and go manana JMHO
It looks like I jinxed it H D with my call…. ur 1400 spx is holding water a lil better here
in the mean time Im watching this….
nice
yes high todays low 23.60% = 1400.25
move up looks corrective to me..
which move up looks corrective to you Lee? intraday, or the rally from 8/2?
the intraday I thought R C
Hi all! The last leg up in indices has been confirmed by strong breadth in the Technology and Discretionary sectors, so take it seriously. The Energy sector was extremely strong lately (I wrote about technical setups in OIH and XOP on my blog). Sector rotation occurs.
Hey Igor ! THX
Hey Lee! Happy fishing!
thanks Igor. will take a look..got some catching-up to do..
My pleasure. My take is that the active participation of offensive sectors in recent rally implies that we’ll see a continuation.
Thx Igor. By offensive sectors, did you mean Technology and Energy? Are there other sectors that are considered offensive as well? Any targets you have in mind?
Technology, Discretionary, Financials then Industrials (Industrials sector shows strength as well).
Targets remain the same from my analysis on the S&P from December. Look at the long-term chart here:
http://buyonstrength.blogspot.ca/2011/12/dec-03-spx-p-chart-analysis.html
Analysis doesn’t include timing.
Thanks for reminding us Igor!
Didn’t mean to remind, Tony
Just too lazy to explain as to targets. It’s easier to cut and paste a link to what has been done before.
Amazing work from your side to follow the market a day after day with such accuracy and depth. Hats off.
Silly Bots
I can’t believe summers almost over
That’s all I got..
..
chance to buy 1400?
any fish?
Hey H D
I caught 1 decent steel head and had 2 others spit me out..
Amazing how warm the lake water is.
Have u been bass fishing much ?
Not much. 2 little weekend trips. Not much bite here either. Fall might be the time to try again.
Test 1386 pivot now SPX ?
may be
ur “just-in-time-” questions have been the bots’ commands recently Lee, so let’s see how well they can pay homage today
..c’mon u bots, get going…..Agree with you on many tech. grounds w/which I am not gna bore anyone (yet) again..
what makes me think if does test it itll be on a gap down..
LOD at the open and closes lately….fun eh
haa… well said, Lee..hear ya…with some xtra malice on the side…well, we get paid for being abused sometimes, let’s face it..
Here is my lame chart attempt at a top call
http://stocktwits.com/ActiveTradingPartners/message/9027887
i always find it fascinating that all the risks in the world can seemingly get priced in or out of the market in the blink of an eye.
Europe, China, earnings misses, the US Fiscal Cliff are like keyser soze… “and like that, they were gone…”
Tony
I just noticed the 96 and 98 #’s on the 60 minute chart.
What are those for if you don’t mind my asking?
Thank you
We’re tracking a potential diagonal triangle … will make note of it in the update
10 year treasury yield will keep on falling for awhile yet.
Fed loans money to bank at .25%. Bank buys 1.4-1.5% 10 year bond. Fed buys it back from same bank.
Lather rinse repeat
Banks dont lend into economy so we dont get hyperinflation, fed lowers interest rates, prints money without anyone noticing.
It’s not that no one notices it, everybody knows banks aren’t lending, the issue is that no one cares. If the FED started to do what the CB of Sweden did in 2009 / 2010, and the CB of Denmark did more recently, which is to charge an interest on excess reserves deposits instead of paying an interest on them, what would the banks do with loan demand at historical lows ? The latest report from FRB of St Louis indicates an amount of excess reserves at an all time high of 1.450 trillion as of June 30! We are in totally unchartered territory and frankly no one knows what the consequences of the current FED policy will be. However, market participants have decided to ignore the dangers of this uncertainty focusing instead on the short term and bidding up prices of stock markets and other assets. It could last for a while longer, even reaching Tony’s forecast high of SPX 1550 in mid-2013, but I very much doubt it as some sort of reality check will have to happen sooner rather than later.
thanks Erka,The reality check may be driven by the BOTS before all is said and done.
My latest on GOLD
http://www.themarkettrendforecast.com/forecasts/gold-ready-to-break-out-towards-all-time-highs/
BULLISH
Posted the CC fractal last week. +170 now http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CC&p=h1
Plenty of room to run GL.
Nice H D
German 10yr Bunds have peaked and completed the Primary C wave with a failed 5? On my weekly basis Bund is now in a down trend. I will add more to my short pos if 143.65 holds.
Weekly
http://screencast.com/t/TLLh8vuqxW
Daily
http://screencast.com/t/8bJr2SQLUVrF
1hr
http://screencast.com/t/3mCfFQJ9pim
thx Magnus,
Seeing similar action in the UST
DAX Time Ratio 138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/dax-time-ratio-1382.html
Thanks Tony
Dax and the Cac will soon be hitting 52 week highs for the first time since 2011.
Look at the weekly aroon 52 and macd.
DAX chart: http://scharts.co/TepR30
CAC chart: http://scharts.co/QJdLBq
M1: The lesson I learned from going the wrong way when the trend changes is:
PAY ATTENTION TO THE INDICATORS AND MA’S ON THE DAILY AND WEEKLY CHART!
It looks like my count yesterday was slightly off. It now appears 1394.16 was wave 1, which was followed by an inverted corrective wave 2 which completed this afternoon at 1401. 1435-1475 should be next. Support is at 1387-1397, and then 1376. Resistance remains at 1406, and then 1426.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/08/tuesdays-market.html
Hi,
looks like I am the only bear left in play ?? the last shorter ?? shorted at 13180 yesterday.
GL.=)
Don’t know M1… Almost every trading blog I’m reading is attempting shorts – and have been all last week and this week so far. We’re due for a pullback so odds are in favor of shorting here. This of course then probably means higher first but ya never know…
yes Mario ur the only bear left once again
I looked at open short interest and it was 1
Don’t spend all the $ in one place !
LOL
Lee X: Is it true that all good traders are nuts? lol
=)
First figure out economic’s supply/demand, then trend, then the wave count.
Why do you think the supply of stocks is greater then the demand for stocks?
Semis (SOX) still leading the way.
SP500 High 7 August 2012…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/08/sp500-high-7-august-2012.html
Hey no fair you said this last week… eventually it’ll be true…
ground control tyo Major Tom: yes ur on a mission to get to the bottom of those astro charts, aren’t you…if only things were that easy… adsense works though..
LOL… I find Astro exactly 50% right. Half the time he is right on the mark while the other half he is exactly wrong (meaning the market will actually move heavily in the opposite direction called). Late last week his arrow pointed immediately down to SP 1320ish…we know what happened.
nice that you took the time to actually research that Tommy…I gave up on it a long time ago… there are about 167000 different astrological types of people that are based on the various possible positions of planets and stars at the time of our birth…so just the position of one planet or the Moon at any point doesn’t guarantee any specific outcome…there are some very knowledgeable people doing financial astro…and the very best ones charge a lot of moolah for their work..honestly though RSI, MACD and other basic TA tools are more reliable that astro…btw, Mercury Retro. ends tomorrow btw., whatever that could mean (after the rally’s already started, right?).. ..lol
let me correct that number, although I don’t have the exact number right now (and it is a finite number) – it’s closer to 130000-135000(of possible combinations),
so there are a lot of moving parts affecting our reality with variable intensity…
Glad at last someone else made that comment ! Couldn’t agree more. Totally ramdom, hence useless.
VIVA LA 1440
Thanks Tony!
U tell it like it is…..play their way or go away….ur choice
NBC sports commentators from the Athens Summer Olympics:
1. Weightlifting commentator: “This is Gregoriava from Bulgaria. I saw her snatch this morning during her warm up and it was amazing.”
2. Dressage commentator: “This is really a lovely horse and I speak from personal experience since I once mounted her mother.”
3. Paul Hamm, Gymnast: “I owe a lot to my parents, especially my mother and father.”
4. Boxing Analyst: “Sure there have been injuries, and even some deaths in boxing, but none of them really that serious.”
5. Softball announcer: “If history repeats itself, I should think we can expect the same thing again.”
6. Basketball analyst: “He dribbles a lot and the opposition doesn’t like it. In fact you can see it all over their faces.”
7. At the rowing medal ceremony: “Ah, isn’t that nice, the wife of the IOC president is hugging the cox of the British crew.”
8. Soccer commentator: “Julian Dicks is everywhere. It’s like they’ve got eleven Dicks on the field.”
9. Tennis commentator: “One of the reasons Andy is playing so well is that, before the final round, his wife takes out his balls and kisses them…
haaa..funny HD.. And that one volleyball player’s name was Destinee Hooker, wasn’t it?
That’s the best laugh I’ve had in awhile. Thanks HD.
Steve
awesome. thanks HD!
next trading cycle low as a tentative/theoretical window between Aug 28 and Sept 18
next intermediate cycle low as a tentative/theoretical window between Oct 22 and Dec 3
Although last intermediate cycle was stretched beyond recent norms, all-in-all, since 2009 low, trading and intermediate cycles have occurred with amazing regularity
My totally lame attempt at a chart
Cheers