SHORT TERM: another volatile FOMC day, DOW -33
Overnight the Asian markets slipped 0.1%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 163K vs 179K. The market gapped up the open to SPX 1384, hit 1385, and then began to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1379 yesterday. At 10:00 ISM manufacturing was reported still in contraction mode: 49.8 vs 49.7, and Construction spending was reported lower: +0.4% vs +0.9%. The market hit SPX 1378 by 10:30 and then tried to rally. Around 1:00 the SPX had only managed to get back to opening levels at 1384, and then started to pullback ahead of the FOMC statement. Near 2:15 the FED released their statement:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120801a.htm
. The market immediately sold off to SPX 1373, and then started to recover. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1382, and then pulled back to close at 1375.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold slid $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold during today’s pullback. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, Senate testimony from FED director Eichner at 9:00, then Factory orders at 10:00.
The market gapped up at the open today for the third time in the last five trading days. The gap up, however, was immediately filled in the first hour of trading. After that the market went back into its holding pattern ahead of the FOMC statement. Volatility increased after the statement as the market soldoff to its lowest level of the week, SPX 1373, then rebounded. Tomorrow morning the ECB reports.
Thus far, since the ECB president Draghi’s statement last week, the market rallied from SPX 1329-1392 by monday. The pullback since that high has been 19 points, thus far, to SPX 1373, right at the OEW 1372 pivot. Short term momentum dropped into oversold territory during this pullback. Short term support remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1402/03. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1370. Could be a volatile opening tomorrow depending on what comes out of the ECB meeting. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Good One HD, squeezed to the pivot indeed
Those pivots are the key to success Vishal. SPX 10 points off the deck… shocking.
I smell some Troon golf coming. Have a great1
I smell some coffee ,long day, bye
If we take out todays Globex high tommorow @ the open what would be the count ?
rocket man 3 of 3
Good Day Today
kudos … no surprises
I smell robot
To bot or not to bot, that is the question
pivot bot stop
What could happen in the last 45 minutes with NFPR out tomorrow ?
coin meet toss
let’s squeeze to pivot
+1
My buddy Dino’s ES chart. A cave man could could trade this.
http://blyve-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/media/f7/5cda39f84df85bdff581217996d299/2012-08-0203-TOS_CHARTS.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYMJzWE37kQ
Cavemen are smarter than bots
easy now
Whoa hey Tony !
Me likey !!!
Tony, now 1363 being broken, where do you see the next support level?
1342/47
Dear friends Dow Jones reached our objective technical
link analysys :
http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com
Good1
sure did.. Nice !
Actually a Double ZZ is interesting. maybe 1325 is an X? Shall ponder.
Oh no u didn’t
nice job H D
1363 busted
Catching this falling knife, Longs added at 1356 spx
Hey V
Ur not alone here.. I see some guys taking a shot with you.
Profitable trades are often the most painful ones to begin with , what say lee?
By the way, dont login much nowadays what happened with catch?
poof!
Hey V
He got stopped out @ the years high then vanished like Tony said.
He apparently got an offer he couldn’t refuse. Smart kid no doubt but he kind of left some folks hanging ..”Like I said” I saw it coming
Ok, was just wondering, when will i get such offer!looks like the moderators got a soft corner for him, will leave it at that!
Hey V
1354.92 is the 34 EMA on Tonys Daily SPX chart
whether its just a pause or a stick I’m not sure .Ill let people tell in a few hours
But yet again …its all about 1363 SPX..sigh
I think closing is the key today, above 1365 bulls are back in the game
Hey L,
When they tell you,
let me know as well
8/1/12 Stock Market Update:
http://stockmarketdirection1.blogspot.com/2012/08/8112-stock-market-update.html
Looks like the FED day lows have been replaced by ECB day lows
Sir Draghi pulling the strings
Closed the shorts at 55.50
kudos
TY Tony. It was your reminder actually. First round is on me.
cheers!
Pivot Time
“Like I said” The best pulled pork sandwich I have ever had in my life was @http://www.hootwebdesign.com/blog/webbs-country-kitchen-cumberland-gap.php
They call it the “Austin burger” but there is no beef in it.
Toasted bun with bacon on the bottom piled with their pulled pork and coleslaw… It was dog kicking good !
http://www.hootwebdesign.com/blog/webbs-country-kitchen-cumberland-gap.php
ESU 1370 old support…the insane folks who bought this am even though the end was upon the whole world took profits there IMHO
and pivot time again..
Ok guys even I’m getting sick of myself
trade smart..don’t let trying to look right get in ur way of making $$
see yas at the close
thanks Lee. Have fun..Send us some more music clips from ur trip if you can
HD, another nice call
Nice job Lee! and thx for waking the market up yesterday. Did someone say bacon?
Took profits 46 on SPXU 44.15 entry as posted here several days ago. Hard to short the BERNANK and PRE ELECTION year. August 3rd though is a possible turn.
Best to all
D
Nice trade David
Nice trade David
Wave 3 could still come to screeching halt due to overlapping patterns and deteriorating conditions worldwide and with individual stocks, a retracement is still in the cards to 1267 or worse… Im heavy in cash, like 82% plus
Didn’t we already trade 1267? I am B wave back. C up goes to 1444
bear bots have the floor for a couple of days … then
HD
We will soon find out, but I saw nothing but sloppy overlapping rally from 1267, I didnt see 5 waves, and nobody can point them out. Traditional Elliott Wave analysis would say caution is and was warranted on the rally. I can see ABC x ABC complex correction rally, I dont see impulsive rally.
I still therefore maintain my bearish lean towards a full retracement of the June lows rally and possibly much worse
But again, that is my opinion purely from the elliott wave patterns…
As have seen and noted multiple times, Europe has been, is, and very likely be long on promises and short on delivery — it is the job of the market to force them into action
S&P was weak as pointed out regarding its internals
http://markettime.blogspot.com/2012/07/s-500-july-31-2012.html
not a bad trade
support is pivotal the pivotal area of 1330-1360
U can say that again
HWB she’s a beauty
1363ES nice pop from HWB. If it firms up here we can trade 1373 IMO
sure was H D
10 point bots?
Nice Cyborg !
Thx for the reminder Tony. SPX 10 point from lows. That’s a short IMO
well — one way to get to 1363 Tony….
there already Bud
yuup
Guess, your watching the lower Bull channel, at 1340 ish….
CL is still to high, as well. Pushing down to the 77-76 level….
Best to ya. for cool day for ya, Tony
bears may have control until monday, Bud … cheers!
Your right, But, still see Bulls in control despite the move form 1391
to 1363. My key is the FAGIX fund. Waiting on a sell signal then, I’d
have to be a Bear….SHLD had a nice pop-up 3 pts, but know your not
a fan. Tony, been trading UCO/SCO, watching your $WTIC chart….
Thank again….Bud
cheers!
Bud,
Just curious but why are you watching the FAGIX fund so close.
Gauging demand for corporate bonds??
ref FAGIX fund – I created my own indicator, I call it the BoYu, named
after a good chinese friend of mine. When that goes on a sell, and it might
today, Then the SP is likely to fall as well in a more significant way. Using FAGIX,
or a high yield bond fund – when rising you have an investor who is less concerned
by risk. When the FAGIX falls, the investor is concerned about risk, and that
is my signal – FYI the opposite is the VUSTX fund, and with the highly conservative
fund – you get the opposite – which in theory counters the Bullish market view.
However, when the VUSTX makes a primary high, as it is scheduled to do, in Oct.
And then falls into a down trend – you have seen the SP low…….Hope that was not
to confusing – TLT is my preferred investment for Bear markets. TLT bottomed
last summer 2011 and has a high of 130-132 thus far……Let me know if you
want to see a chart….Bud
bud~ there is no symbol:FYI
Now David is going to slap someone on the chest, do his little walk around the ring as if he were Ric Flair
The Quiet men got to sell em this morn without the wait
KCG should have waited one more day to install that software.
zing ! ouch !
Nice Tony
Talk the talk, and Walk the walk =)
There is something fishy about that story…..No big bank installs software midweek. they have all their tech guys come in during the weekend. Unless it is extremely poor planning.
Dark Knight, now Knight Capital … any other Knights out there?
Draghi giving em the biz
Kids in the candy store disappointed.No free goodies yet.
awwww man
Broke S2 already on big volume … bears in control again
Here’s the pullback everybody was looking for…enjoy
As have seen and noted multiple times, Europe has been, is, and very likely be long on promises and short on delivery — it is the job of the market to force them into action
S&P was weak as pointed out regarding its internals
http://markettime.blogspot.com/2012/07/s-500-july-31-2012.html
not a bad trade
support is pivotal the pivotal area of 1330-1360
Draghi (Lucy) to Markets (Charlie Brown):
Draghi/EU: “I won’t pull the football away this time, Markets! I’ll really do something!”
MKT: “I dunno, you trick us every time Draghi…”
Draghi: “No, this time it’s real, I will print lots of Euros and buy up all the Spanish and Italian Debt!”
Mkt: “ok, I will kick the football then! Yay!!!!”
SPLAT
=)
ES – 2 August, 2012 pre-ECB set-up
In keeping with the larger short bias portrayed in the Week-end review (23-27 July, 2012), I would initiate short positions, should the market reach the following levels:
– 1384.75; and
– 1386.5.
The shorts would be invalidated upon the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) breaching and staying above 13128.64 (Monday top), during cash trading hours.
http://theincrementaltrader.blogspot.it/2012/08/es-2-august-2012-pre-ecb-set-up.html
I think today’s move means a that the correction from 1392 will continue. Support is at 1367, and then 1352. Resistance is at 1382-1385, and 1393.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/08/wednesdays-market-080112.html
8/1/12 Stock Market Update:
http://themarketsource.blogspot.com/
NYSE is 8-10% below the May 2011 highs, and equal to the October rally highs off the lows, but not higher. Still looks like there is massive deterioration underneath the large index numbers, and eventually should drag market lower?
nice call 3X
lots of individual stock deterioration underneath the large indices or masks of the DOW 30, this is often a prelude to another large decline.
ES – 1 August, 2012 closing re-cap
The reaction to the FED announcement brought the market to the bottom of a descending channel.
http://theincrementaltrader.blogspot.it/2012/08/es-1-august-2012-closing-re-cap.html
thanks Max
Thanks Max Good catch
Thanks Tony !
No surprises…yet
nice call yesterday Lee! That’s the way, aha aha we like it.
Thanks Tony!
gee, that 5 min -d at today’s low is still sticking out like a sore thumb.. Mario Draghi don’t disappoint us now. Everytime I look at Mario, I am thinking of peter sellers
http://screencast.com/t/VYutoN8BC
oh can anyone tell us what thye SPX FV is ? thanks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXn2QVipK2o
There’s always tomorrow Lee
haa. nice Tony..yes, he’s a man of mystery isn’t he….I could also do a version with a moustache, if you guys want….. OK, OK, I shall behave now… have a great evening all!
cheers CB … the C-entral B-ankers are in vogue these days
Indeed …or tonight
Hey CB !
I should work at a carnival guessing peoples weight
haa…..Lee, I knew you were good..but not THAT good..lol…nice, you take precision to a whole new level, Lee
)
From the perspective of a stock guy, the market looks surprisingly weak … I’m still long the SOX, which held tough today, but I am now short the small caps … its as though the techs did bottom, but did so early. The market looks like it has one more roll over before we can put up the “Welcome to Wave 3″ banner.
EUR update for you guys
http://www.aspentrading.com/freeresearch/?id=4075&utm_source=August+1%2C+2012+Nightly+Video&utm_campaign=6.19.12+Nightly+Video&utm_medium=email