SHORT TERM: new uptrend high then pullback, DOW -3
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1385 – one point lower than friday’s close. The market then started to rally, hitting SPX 1392 around 10:30. Then with an extremely overbought condition it started to pullback. At 11:00 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120730a.htm. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1381, rallied to 1386 by 1:30, and then stayed within those two levels into a 1385 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude slipped 60 cents, Gold lost $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum declined from extremely overbought heading toward neutral. Tomorrow, the FED starts its two day FOMC meeting. At 8:30 Personal income/spending and PCE prices. At 9:00 Case-Shiller housing prices. Then Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Consumer confidence at 10:00.
Today the market opened 1 point lower, rallied 4 points above friday’s high, then pulled back 11 points before ending the day where it opened SPX 1385. Today’s pullback was not surprising considering how overbought the market was after friday’s close. In fact, a further pullback to either the 1372 or 1363 pivot would be considered quite normal after a 60+ point rally in the SPX, (1329-1392). With the FED and the ECB meeting over the next few days some volatility should be expected. While we do not expect the FED to do anything substantial, except to mention they are ready to purchase additional Bonds, if need be. The ECB, on the other side of the pond, is expected to make an important announcement.
Short term support remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1402/03. Short term momentum is declining from extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positively biased with the swing level now around the OEW 1363 level. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high
LONG TERM: bull market
I agree with the post, this is also in agreement with my views on the FTSE 100 on the LSE.
http://thegrowthinvestor.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/market-update-ftse-100-well-positioned/
Here’s my guess
No QE3 announcement tomorrow just the same finger on the button statement.
Dave Banister’s 3X short pays some $ and he humbly only mentions his profits a few times
I get a gig @ DollyWood in Sevierville, TN wearing a hillbilly bear costume during the day and performing as a Hank Williams impersonator during the evenings..
just my guess
third one sounds about right
hahahaha Thanks Tony !
Bring all ur kin folk on down … there will be tickets waiting at the will call !
I await the counts
the word:muliti-talented doesn’t even begin to describe our Lee
)
oops, multi-talented, that is
Thanks for the update Tony! Thanks Lee!
I know one guy in India whos’s 300% long
My thinking is that this rally is going to sink or swim based on the actions of the ECB. This is a non-press conference fed meeting, and I suspect that should the Fed launch QE3, Benny the Bankster would want to have the opportunity to explain himself immediately. I would not expect QE3 until September at the earliest … though a Jackson Hole telegraphed punch cannot be ruled out either, I suppose.
PCE says FED still on hold … agree
Tony is your plan for SBUX ??? My est. is your looking for a W4 low, in future. If
correct, what is your Low price estimate…..Bud
Bud, Posted the chart to see how it handles this wave 4, (correct).$41.56 was the wave 1 high, so it should bottom above that.
Thank you Tony….
http://www.caldaro.com/
Haha, tony diversified?
Hey Lee, JD Simo apparently became famous in AZ first …can you ask him when he’s gna perform back in PHX again when you talk to him
here ya go CB
http://simotheband.bandcamp.com/album/simo
This is his band and they are doing dates
His bands sound is a 180 from what u saw in the clip I posted today
Mos Def rock/blues/groovy
He learned the Nashville sound so he wouldnt starve and hes only 27
Thanks Lee!
Yes, a pretty talented kid. Maybe will be able to see him sometime…and how about Lee and JD doing a tour together… 
Hey Lee u really sound happy and so much in ur element now.. ur doing a great tour this summer ..happy to see you that way..
Jd’s logo is really cool,too, isn’t it..kinda Hendrix/60s theme plus Jim Morrison hair…lol
Hey C B
I’m in a good place as long as I keep moving
haha..what ur doing is a real vacation Lee…while some of us are doing a “staycation”..yup being stuck , basically
cyborg
That goes a long way in explaining the pivotBots
Nice music Lee! How is it going?
and yes, the “castle made of sand” sell signal here.. …making sense right now…oh, let’s add Bill Gross’ mumbo jumbo too..should help also..
http://screencast.com/t/MrN3XbMm7
a couple of fibs around 1357-58 and TL supp..unless, of course I am terribly wrong about the direction here
Hey C B !
No sell signal intended…just the vibe I got reading the easin and pleasin posts.
Just getting ready for the tide to come in and make things new again.
I’m having a blast CB ..met and meeting a bunch of really good people all over the place.
Check this cat out…saw and met him @ Roberts Western World in Nashville TN.
Kids a monster player and originally from Chicago’s Lincoln Park neighborhood.
Mr JD Simo…
CL @ some support here 87.70
Ok guys I didnt mean to hijack blog with vids but I couldn’t help it…
trade well
OMG, yes I am smitten by the kitten.. .wow!! but we haven’t heard you play yet Lee…so reserving the judgmenet who the best guitar player in Nashville is until later…
thanks Lee – youve brought us some great vibes as always
Lee, how do markets react when ur on a holiday?
Hey V !
They usually have great moves that 99% of the people who trade them have their best days of the year. Pretty much all lay ups historically .
Thats the trigger i was looking for thanx, will trade gold now
I want a 10 % kick back on any 10% moves
deal, but you need to stay on holiday if the trade works, hehe
Good morning all, you know I gave up a couple of weeks ago and stopped trading for the rest of july. It has been nice watching only and I may start trading again. Could be just in time for the market reaction on the fed statement.??
What do you think, Tony ? because the way the market has ralllied I guess Qe3 should be announced in some way ..if not, should the market would get dissapointed ?
On the other hand, the first day of the month has been very bullish for the past years with a very few exceptions.
GL
Well, the ECB will begin buying Bonds of all the near bankrupt nations like Greece , Spain Italy and the rest. This is Europes QE1. The central banks want to devalue the dollar and raise the Euro. Over tha past year the dollar has increased over 13% against the Euro. The USD will fall and the EURO will rally for the next year along with stocks. I think this is in line with Tony’s projections for a USD low in 2013.
Another round of QE, on top of the already 1.5 Trillion spent, will furthur devalue the dollar and rally our stock market into the next bubble that will burst.
Looks like Tony is right on.
KJB … how do you know about the Bond buying?
Where does ECB gets the money to buy bond? By printing, right? Printing Euro means increasing money supply. Increasing money supply should lead to decrease in value of Euro. Why do you think Euro would strengthen when the money supply is increasing?
Strengthening Euro and Weakening Dollar also suggests that ‘Smart money’ is flowing to Eurozone and away from US – i.e. short Dollar and long Euro. Why do you think money would flow into Eurozone while the economic conditions are deteriorating? High interest rates? May be. This might be the reason but note that under deteriorating economic conditions, the interest rates can go even higher.
Also, why do you think European nations would take steps to increase the value of Euro while allowing the dollar to drop? Does it not go against the interests of these nations as their goods become expensive in the international markets and making these countries less competitive?
Not picking on you but trying to learn. There are very smart and experienced traders on this blog. And Hats off to Tony …
Syedsma, Think he meant the FED would do QE 3, or maybe a swap program, to weaken the USD.Flooding the EU with Euros certainly would not help it.
No signal fro QE 3 yet
morning Tony. i’m waiting to see if we can put in a new intraday high with a -div on the 60-min RSI. but still feels like the mkt wants to take one more leg down before it’s ready to rally again. 1376 looks about right to me, before we head higher again.
not much new to report in bond land – has been pretty consistent with equity mkt. Spanish bond yields are 100bp tighter in 4 days. ’nuff said.
RC, you mean they are actually moving together for a change.FED statement tomorrow, ECB thursday … expecting a bungee cord market
With the breakdown of resistance in the Dow Jones was 12.812ko search the 13.127k. If you break this point can get 13.335 k, if respects this point is likely to test support 12.812k
Analysys link -
http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com.br/
ES – 30 July, 2012 closing re-cap UPDATE 1
http://theincrementaltrader.blogspot.it/2012/07/es-30-july-2012-closing-re-cap.html
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY last traded price: 5196.Current Hourly Trend: Up, Dynamic Trend SL: 5121.3. You may visit http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs?ref=ts. Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
Good work Tony.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9436348/Only-Mario-Draghis-ECB-can-avert-global-calamity-before-the-year-is-out.html
A little light reading from Ambrose.
After the move to a new uptrend high at 1391.74, the market formed a 5 wave sequence down to 1381.37. The choppy up move may have been a 5 wave sequence up, or the beginning of a larger structure to the upside. If the market moves lower, it should find support first at 1377-1378, and then 1376. To the upside, 1387-1397 is still the resistance zone, and then 1426.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/07/mondays-market-073012.html
7/30/12 Stock Market Update:
http://themarketsource.blogspot.com/
Hi Tony, what are your thoughts on Grain ETFs or stocks? I usually invest indirectly by buying fertilizer stocks.
Scorp, Have not been really tracking that sector too closely.
DJI Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/dji-time-ratio-618.html
SP500 Time Ratio 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/sp500-time-ratio-618.html
What might happen here if the recent talk by ECB & FED does not turn into action this week? or are the technicals saying we will get action this week?
Something tangible is likely to happen this week
Tony
In the current SPX 5 min bull market, wave 1 completed at the hod. Wave 2 completed at the lod and as expected it just touched the lower 50 5 min bollinger band. A choppy wave 3 started and spent the rest of the day getting the 20 and 50 5 min ma’s into a bullish configuration at the end of the day. ie 20 above the 50 ma and both rising.
Weekly macd’s turning bullish: CAC a few weeks ago, DAX, last week. Today: SPX, DOW and gold. Hinting that somethings going to happen this week.
Rob,Something positive I hope.
In my 10 years of trading, I’ve only seen 1 macd bear kiss on the weekly chart, in the summer of 2008 in the last bear market. ie wave 2 of wave C. Don’t think they every happen above the 200 dma.
Good thing about the choppy double flat trading is: 1) No bearish divergence in the weekly macd if/when 52 week highs are hit. 2) No bearish divergence in the daily macd or cmf.
All hinting at a positive outcome.
Hey tony
At this point in time, which has more medium-term upside, the SOX or XLK?
Thanks…appreciate your work.
Would think the SOX Coco
ES – 30 July, 2012 closing re-cap
http://theincrementaltrader.blogspot.it/2012/07/es-30-july-2012-closing-re-cap.html