SHORT TERM: DOW breaks losing streak, DOW +59
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. European markets opened lower but closed +0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1340. The SPX had closed at 1338 yesterday. After an opening pop to SPX 1344 the market began to pullback. At 10:00 New home sales were reported lower: 350K vs 369K. Around 11:00 the SPX hit its low for the day at 1332 and began to rally. Nearing 3:00 the SPX hit the 1344 level again, and then pulled back to close at 1338.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. AAPL’s decline contributed to 20 points of the NDX 18 point loss on the day. Bonds were flat, Crude gained 40 cents, Gold rallied $21, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum is rising off of yesterday’s positive divergence. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30 along with Durable goods orders. Then at 10:00 Pending home sales.
The market opened higher, sold off early, rallied back to the high of the day, before again pulling back in the last hour of trading. The counts we mentioned yesterday, on the SPX and DOW charts, are still in play. Yet this uptrend, despite the 11% probability of it being a B wave, still looks choppy. Especially after the recent decline.
With both the SPX 1325 level and SPX 1309 level offering potential uptrend support in an ongoing constructive uptrend pattern. We determined a break of the OEW 1313 pivot range, (1306 low end), may signal the uptrend has ended.
Short term support is at SPX 1333/38, 1324/27 and the 1313 pivot. Overhead resistance is at SPX 1342/47, (which we hit twice today), then the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum has risen off yesterday’s positive divergence and ended the day at neutral. The short term OEW charts are still negatively biased with the swing level now around SPX 1346. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend continues
LONG TERM: bull market
what I do know is this is one crazy ass market…. that is all
nhgn : I’m expecting a 5 wave top. Not sure if I’m getting the meaning of your question?
minitrader: gold bulls finally have the 20 and 50 dma’s pointing up.Weekly macd on the GLD chart is now a hair from turning bullish.
nhgn,
Whether QE3 comes or not the future of GLD and GDX is Golden
Look at last summer-when GLD rose from 149 to 180+ in 1 month after QE2 had ended.
I think the fiscal cliff talk will continually stoke the GLD engine.
THe GDX keeps making lower lows since Sept 11- until recently… Does anyone have an EW count on GDX? I would like to think we made the low on 5/16 and we are in now either an abc up or a 1 -2… Any thoughts past mini’s positiveness is appreciated!
GLD has to get above 157.72 with some volume too for us to to break trend?
nhgn
Yep I see 5 down from the 1422 high.
1 1357 April 10th
At that point the trading channel had a weak up slope. Weaker than the previous one. Hinting that the bulls were losing momo and a bearish trend change was likely to occur when the next hourly pivot forms..
2 1415 May 1st
At that point the next trading channel slopes down.
3 1291 May 17th
There the next trading channel has a weak down slope, hinting at a counter trend rally.
4 1334 May 29th
There the next trading channel slopes down again.
5 1266
There the next trading channel has a weak up slope. Hinting at a bullish trend change.
The rally to 1363 blew out the top of the trading channel and resulted in a sharp correction.
Since then the spx has been stuck in choppy trading where new hourly pivots and trading channels are generated every few days.
good enough my man… thank you…. But us are assuming a 3 wave top?
Thanks Tony.I am also very bullish on miners.I am long GDX.
Miners,specifically Gold miners follow Gold and I think it is poised for a big move up in August.
Would welcome that Mini… Have some at some unfavorable levels… Many people seeing QE3 not coming in for Aug 1 — which could be bad for the market — i dunno… many people saying many things
…
just noticed MMM chart looks pretty nice. breaking back above the 90 resistance. following GE, as the bellwether industrials lead us higher
RC,
There’s a lot of bullish excitement today with the Dow up 200 points. The RUT, however, is up only4 points as I write this and that is troublesome. Unless the RUT quickly catches up with the large caps and the NDX, I will have to conclude that there is a lack of risk appetite in this market and that may be an issue going forward.
Keep an eye on the relative performance of small caps versus the large caps — in a healthy market, the small caps should lead. This scenario may not have an immediate impact on equities in general but if the performance divergence persists, caution is advised.
i hear ya, and don’t disagree. the RUT chart doesn’t look horrible to me (yet), but as you say, it needs to get itself in gear to put some strength behind this longer term. i think a few days of DOW rally could get the small cap players poking around again
Agree RC — if the rally can sustain, the small caps may come around and help smooth out this choppy uptrend. It remains to be seen, however, because neither bulls nor bears have been able to sustain a direction for more than a few days.
Remember though its the large caps that will lead in a mature bull. Small caps generally kick off bulls – like they did back in ’09/’10. Micros should still do well but its likely the big boys that will lead at this stage.
True enough, Tommy … this is a reminder of where we are in the cycle and we should we should allocate our capital accordingly.
Trend is Back up now.If tomorrow no red,then back to 1375 before FOMC.
Thx minitrader… I am stuck in longs from April still.. A lot of people calling for a Q top;
Tony C – I had heard along with the sox that if you see the miners turn around (FCX, GDX, etc) that they were the early indicators to a new leg or bull move? Can you comment on that if you have the time. Thanks
Miners are ‘risk on trades.With a potential USD top, risk may very well be on.
Dave
Here’s my interpretation of what the wave from 1266 to 1363 on the 5 minute timescale is.
A secular bull market stated at 1266. When it topped out, a secular bear market started and there was a bear market, a bull market,then a second bear market, a second bull market and a third and final bear market ended the secular bear market. Then a secular bull market started and ended at 1363.
A secular bear market has a series of overlapping waves. I could be wrong. I could be right.
Thanks tommyboys for that article on GE
GE leading higher today… their pullback likely over.
Do you see 5 down from the 1422 high?
I have no idea what you are talking about man… secular usually means longer term
Rainbow channel forming. Daytraders paradise.
Pausing after 10 points as we come into the MA’s. I would welcome the 10 point bots back with a six back and some of Lee’s peaches.
Nice rally off PB. Have a great weekend all. I’ll update the alt count optiontimer Sunday.
cheers HD
Thanks HD!
struggling to find new buyers at these higher levels. hoping we don’t have a repeat of the gap up selloff on 7/10. feel like that would be pretty telling if that happened.
agree
1360 is a perfect 61.8% retrace of the 1380-1329 decline we just had. stepping up my stop to 1343.
Good stop! The 1360′s have been serious resistance, except for two couple of day pops, since mid-May
i don’t think i’ve listened to one conference call this qtr that’s made me feel like buying a stock. outlooks are just downright bleak. and not many companies seem willing to step up their share buyback/dividend activity any more at this point, given the macro uncertainty.
another disappointing summer?
sure feels that way, Tony. without some good Fed news I’m concerned we could get another August swoon to new lows before we’re ready to head higher again. essentially a repeat of the aug-sept 2011 action. blech
if we can get a good solid rally into next week’s Fed meeting i think i’ll probably go flat heading into the headline. i just don’t trust this market yet without that backstop, sad to say.
Sorry once again, you all.
This guy is still bearish. Medium and long term bearish !!
=)
Todays Elliott Wave challenge:
Who can take this SP 500 chart and show me 5 waves up from 1267 for 1, then a wave 2 for 2… and now the beginning of 3? I dont see it…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p85506475419
Thanks
Thinking relying on some fabled QE3 program to keep the bull market running can only last so long, thats all. comments from Draghi are just that… comments. History is full of these comments before the ships went down, keeping the public numb as possible.
The 2 day rally is what I discussed on Tuesday afternoon as likely. The pivot 1359-62 is a 61% retrace of the last 50 point down move. We will need to see 1381 taken out and then I may give up my short term bear hat… lol
Meantime, trading stocks as always..
Cheers
D
David, Too me it doesnt look like wave 2 of 3. I am of the view that we are still in corrective upmove from 1267, most likely to end in the range 1390 to 1415. Then make a move below 1267
Is today the start of 3 of 3 up?
so far, so good
Tony, SOX index looks like its third wave is the extended, building as a nested 1-2, i-ii up. And up over 2% today, Hooray!
We may see some consoldiation, in the SOX, next.
Tony, I may got something wrong.
1. If the economy is doing fine, why should we expect QE3 ?
2. It was said that the market was doing fine, because QE3 was expected. However, if the economy is picking up, what should we really expect from the FED …an unloading plan ..is that bullish ?
Mario, Expecting the FED to do nothing, except talk, until after the election.Remember the FED didn’t kick in QE 1 until Mar09 … two months after Obama was in office. Currently, the chairman is Ben Bernanke, a South Carolina macroeconomist nominated by George W. Bush and sworn into office on February 1, 2006, for a term lasting until January 31, 2010. He was nominated for a second time by President Obama in 2009. In 2010 he was confirmed by the senate for a second term, ending January 31, 2014.
Excellent reply, sir…Kuddo’s….Bud
=)
USA! Thanks for the rally Lee.
Howdy! …Heading to Nashville TN this morning to kick up my heels. GL today!
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-31749_162-57479522-10391698/barry-gibb-to-make-debut-at-grand-ole-opry/ just in time Lee
Gold so far it looks like its breaking out to the upside the last 24 hours
.. Breaks over 1635 and then 1643 should unleash some heavy buying pressure as the shorts get stopped out. I updated the chart linked below as a new 3 day bar has started. The study has now dropped below the 6.0 green line to 5.5 so the signal is firm. Cheers!
http://screencast.com/t/X7YpCeo0z
BTW Binve has a recent post on gold you may wish to view and its comments here: http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/07/gold-projection-update.html#disqus_thread
thx Chairman
http://theincrementaltrader.blogspot.it/2012/07/es-26-july-2012-pre-opening-set-up.html
My take on what just happened following ECB’s Mario Draghi bullish comments.
The market had reached the support given by a previuos top @1327.75, coinciding also with a corrective pattern measured by the 100% fib extension of an abc drawn with the pivot points of yesterday’s reaction top @1339, subsequent low @1330.5 and Globex high @1336.5 (see chart).
…
Hi Tony,
Thanks you for all interesting posts, could you explain more parttern of SSEC, you have allready posted the correction of SSEC : abcx … and then what will go on, I don’t understand wave x belong to c or not?
thanks
Nguyen, The X wave usually separates the next series of ABC’s.But will need to review this count, as it doesn’t look right.Nevertheless, expecting a bear market low between 1635-1695.
Nguyen,
After reviewing the long term charts I will retract the previous statement.
This bear market has to be a triangle to fit the long term pattern.
While I sort out the count, in this Major C wave, look for support around 2037.
good luck!
updated charts
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY last traded price: 5103.05.Current Hourly Trend: Down, Dynamic Trend SL: 5137.4. You may visit http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs?ref=ts. Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
I am still targeting 1393-1395 as the wave 3 high from 1267. If the market continues to hold above 1329, today’s 1344 high looks like wave 1, wave 3 should come in at 1346, or 1356, and then 1393-1395.
Resistance is at 1338, 1341, and 1356. There is a cluster of support from here, down to 1331, and then 1323-1326, and 1313-1315. A move below 1329 at this point seems bearish in the short term.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/07/wednesdays-market-072512.html
7/25/12 Stock Market Update:
http://themarketsource.blogspot.com/
Tony, if 1309 is brocken I guess the preffered count will be the one posted on the dow charts and the market could go all the way down to 1267 without damaging the bullish count.
What would you expect if 1267 is finally broken ?
THX
Mario, The preferred count would then be the NAZ count.Back down to 1267 or lower, correct.
In Early May, the market began a slide from 1415 pivot highs to 1370 ranges. Then a sideways to moderate bounce after 4 days of downtrend… and then … down the crapper. Suspect we will see same thing here soon.
1267 still my projection, and then likely lower later on. If I’m wrong, so be it… its what the waves look like to me
Best
D
David, didn’t you mention a nasty wave 3 down a few days ago ?? are you still expecting so ?
And ‘blink’ – we get the “rip your face off” gap up! 1400 only 40+ pts away now – again! Could be another HUGE day confirming the WROC signal yet again. ECB will never allow a significant bank failure as it takes the lead from our Fed (Lehman, Bear etc…).
McClellan was right… GE telegraphed the latest pullback. ‘Should’ be close to done now.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/ges_share_price_has_message_for_market/
Tony
The choppiness is getting to be predictable. New hourly pivot and trading channel happens every couple days it seems. New trading channel slopes up.
A lot of bullish candlesticks patterns on the dow,nyse,rut,spy,dia and qqq that need up day confirmations tomorrow.
The one thing that worries me is the day after a fomc meeting and QE 3 doesn’t happen. Last 2 times big drops at the open occurred. fomc meeting coming up at the end of the month. Scary.
Indeed Rob
Very Interesting Tony.
Despite AAPL’s earnings and a weak tech sector today, the chip index ^SOX tacked on nearly 2%. This keeps the case alive for last week’s 8% kickoff rally in the ^SOX as being a cycle low. It’s a choppy market, but the action in the chips has me giving the benefit of the doubt to the bulls here.
Nice day. I was hoping for a drop on Intel this morning (it was down in after hours) to sell naked puts on it, but it misbehaved and went up
Added some quality longs but otherwise waiting to see how this level plays out.
As long as 1325 holds, we have a stab at 1390. If we go above 1360 again, I will reduce long positions again. I wouldn’t mind a quick washout so I can finally deploy the mountain of cash in my IRA. Selling options in this sideways market has been very rewarding, but this should end soon.
This up/down stuff really worked in my favor (for once), like a pump.
kudos TAC
“despite the 11% probability of it being a B wave, still looks choppy.”
well, that one out of ten circumstance has to happen every now and then – maybe this is another one. i’m hoping not as i added longs yesterday and today, but wouldn’t be a first for me.
cheers!
stops
I’m long SOX and short $RUT … so far, so good … ready to be a bull, but right now I like to keep one arm in the bear suit, just in case
http://theincrementaltrader.blogspot.it/2012/07/es-25-july-2012-closing-re-cap.html
My reading of today’s action is in the chart above. The market might be accumulating, to fuel the next leg up. This accumulation could also see the EU Globex session low re-test @1325.25, which coincides with a 78.6% retracement.
thx Max
Hi peterey.
I, too think the market could move higher once again. I will follow your blog with interest.
Thanks,
Steve