SHORT TERM: market gaps down, DOW -101
Overnight the Asian markets lost 2.2%. European markets opened lower and dropped 1.7%. US index futures were significantly lower overnight as well. At the open the market gapped down to SPX 1348 and continued lower. The SPX had closed at 1363 on friday. Nearing 10:00 the SPX hit its low for the day at 1338, with the most oversold hourly RSI reading in quite some time: 3%. Then the market started to rebound. With a couple of 4 point pullbacks along the way the SPX hit 1353 just before the close, and ended the day at 1351.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.15%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $3.50, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX is at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold this AM and bounced. Tonight, a speech from FED governor Raskin at 7 PM. Tomorrow, a speech from FED chairman Bernanke at 8:45, then FHFA housing prices at 10:00.
The market gapped down at the open today for the second day in a row. The decline took the SPX to the upper end of the 1333/1338 support zone. Then with the hourly RSI at 3, extremely oversold, the market started to rebound. The rally lasted throughout the day as the market recouped about half of its losses when hitting SPX 1353 just before the 1351 close. Financials have dropped over 1% for the third day in a row. The Semi’s may have completed their pullback at today’s low. This choppy uptrend continues.
Short term support is at SPX 1342/47, 1333/38 and 1324/27. Overhead resistance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum rebounded to near neutral after hitting extremely oversold. The short term OEW charts swung into a negative bias today when the market opened under SPX 1360, and ended that way with the swing level now around 1358. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend continues
LONG TERM: bull market
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the USD — for those of you who are interested
plus aud, cad, crude oil , SPX and bonds..
CB, thank you, nice update.
my pleasure JZQ,… just came across their website today..think they’re based in Slovenia
After 5 positive sessions that pushed the DOW up 4% from the July 11th low, last Wednesday Tony upgraded the Dow chart “to reflect a more positive count”. Since that close, the DOW has basically lost all its gains and has almost returned to the July 11th low.
I am just noticing the unfortunate correlation between the “bullish upgrade” and the following market action wondering if Tony’s obvious bullish bias is not interfering with the “objective” part of his analysis.
Erkall, Am always biased by the wave structure and the technicals.The WROC suggests the chances of this uptrend being a B wave are only 11%.The waves suggest, with that in mind, we could have had a wave 1 off the 1267 low then an irregular wave 2 still in progress…DOW countWe marked the B wave high for the DOW count last friday.Or, a 1-2, i-ii with the second ii beginning to bottom…SPX count.Should know which is which in the next day or so.Noted on friday the ES pit would pressure the market into monday/tuesday.Btw, like the way the SOX is holding up despite the market decline.
Anyone got any timing on gold going down or up ?
Gold has become fairly quiet.
Hi David, This is not the forum to air grievances against anyone.There are proper channels for that.Please do not use this forum for personal issues.
cyclical low is in October in my opinion, about 13 months following the wave 3 highs of August/September 2011. We had a 34 month rally from 681-1910/23, a 38% retrace is around 1445 and 13 months is AROUND October… I think GOLD will follow the stock market, whatever direction that ends up being… near term/intermediatly
Hey Dave Banister (I’m told criminals often return to the scene of their crime)!
Tell us about your investment is SA cn Southern Arc. This, according to you, was your second biggest FULL CORE position ever!!!
You paid 1.75C$ a year ago. and continued to buy, buy and buy some more at every point south…
It now trades, when it does that is, at 0.25C$ with volume at a handfull of dollars…
That’s nearly a -90% loss without you ever finding the exit….
Ditto TIC, KLH, BNG, SN, ZNGA…
David, This is not the proper forum for this.Please email him privately.
as mentioned on Thursday, S&P was and is due for a trading cyle low within this time frame into July end
At the time, wave structure looked like a completed abc-x-abc. Looks can be deceiving but so far, it has done nothing to help me argue otherwise
So far, it has done as it should have at a cyclical top — it topped at broke down as we thought it might as it entered the timing band for a trading cycle low late last week
The most important question is whether the coming trading cycle low would lead to a continuation of a right-translated intermediate cycle structure or not
thanks Piazzi
Piazzi
If its an ABC-X-ABC from 1267, which is what I see… then wouldnt you expect 5 waves down from 1381, and not a 3-5 days pullback and then another rally?
Wouldnt a double zig zag after a 5 wave decline 1422-1267 indicate another 5 waves down?
Or are you talking ABC-x-ABC from 1381?
Not following you
Cheers
D
first, and abc-x-abc can be followed by an x and then another abc
second, the fact that appears as abc-x-abc does not mean that it is. Appearances can morph into non-apparent realities
third, I did not say that it would take a few days, only that the timing band runs into end of July, cycles can stretch (or contract)
fourth, even if it does end in a few days, can you with any certainty say how many points it drops? can you with any certainty say how deep or shallow a wave C may cut
fifth, even if it is an abc-x-abc followed by a C, it can still due an irregular flat mid 1250
his market.
I am not smart enough to be certain of anything in this market. I just weigh probabilities and bet accordingly. Last week market behaved shaky, it was getting into a timing band for a trading cycle roll over, and there was no money being promised by anyone, and that was the reality pointing to some probabilities and the trade
Now, I have to see how this behaves when it gets a trading cycle low
question is why should a market go up?
rosy economy?
abundance of liquidity?
optimistic trouble-free world of finance?
excellent double-digit growth prospects across the board?
Excellent fundamentals?
dirt-cheap valuations?
I have no answer but a need for liquidity at this point
nice work Piazzi. thanks.
Thanks HD.. there seems to be something special about 1330 and you’ve nailed it
Thanks Tony.. nice +div on 60 min you’ve got there.
Piazzi, just wondering, it sounds like you follow Tim Wood’s cycles work?
No!
I do my own work
in other words, I pay for my own mistakes
Piazzi
Thanks for the response
near term I see 4 trading days down and a gap fill on the SPY ETF from July 12th completed today. So we may bounce here abit. All downtrends since early June lows have been limited to 4 trading days
after next 1-2 days that will help with the rest
5 waves down intraday…?
Downward C and 3 Targets for S&P
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/07/24/spx-visual-30-day-1-minute-chart-downward-c-and-3-targets/
Tony, any comments on the USD here?
EUR getting close to 119 … 2010 low
i remember from your last FX special report you had a 116 target before a significant bounce. i guess that’s still valid?
Thank you Tony
Has anybody heard from David?
HD
U da man… lol
David, I want you to know that crack kills. If you have a problem you should seek help.
Here is my updated CRACK chart… same as early June, just updated it for last 6 weeks of action is all
http://chart.ly/qrevpre
See you at the 1074 levels… or maybe 1550-1600 by year end…lol
Only kidding people, lighten up already… its just the market, we can still all go to the beach and grab some sun and beer
David, it looks like a chart Tony ‘crash’ Cherniawski would post. What’s your line in the sand to abort this forecast? BTW, Steve Vincent at BullBear Trading also forecasting this C wave decline now.
My big picture is this is a 3-3-5 from the 1370 May 2011 highs…. and we are in likely wave 3 of that last 5 of the 3-3-5.
1370-1074 A
1074-1422 B
1422-1074 C as most likely IMO for a total 3-3-5 ABC move
But that is very far ahead of myself, so for now I’m sticking with the 1267 re-test and then we will see the patterns.
I could end up totally wrong, but at least I’m not changing my tune every other day and Im willing to stick with the patterns I see and make a forecast and either look like an bonehead if I’m wrong or good if I’m right.
People need to accept other viewpoints and not take it so personally. Usually it means your long or short the market, and so you are going to cloud your vision with the bet you are making with your money. If you dont trade the indices, then you dont have a bias and you just call what you see.
Thats my rant, go ahead and bark and hate on me…. but I never saw any impulsive movements from 1267…
David, I don’t know where you are getting that anyone is hating you here?
Your words
“Tony’s followers don’t like people disagreeing and reminding them.”
“…and people don’t like me for that.”
“…hate on”
Don’t bear resemblance of reality on this site. You make incredible assumption labeling all “Tony’s followers” in wide brush strokes, all colored as we are naive sheep blindly following his instructions. Even cursory reading of posts will show there are plenty of people disagreeing every day, and Tony usually just politely responds with “Thanks!” respecting all opinions.
Occasionally readers disagree with you, but why would you characterize that as hatred? If Tony were to react to people not agreeing with him in such a way, this site would quickly lose all relevance. I have seen before your overreactions here and assumptions that people hate you, but for your own good it’s better if you stop with that, and learn to take the heat. Which doesn’t mean we want you to stop posting here, as you also wrongly assumed before.
The REALITY is that people here, as expressed by posts many times:
-Highly respect different opinions
-Highly respect your opinion, as you have lot of experience and were right many times in the past
-People here are aware that you are not always right as evidenced by your statements earlier this year, and it’s great that you admit that as well.
-Some here like banter, but that’s not hatred.
-CB’s comment earlier “rewind and be kind” was a reference to your strong statement on Barry Banister’s work, not hatred toward you.
We would like to continue seeing your posts, and not overreacting, but just keep your cool.
And your reference that some people here change their mind “every two days” is also not correct, but even if it is, this market is certainly challenging and it takes a humbleness to adjust your opinion when you see it’s going in different direction. There are plenty of examples of “stubborn” analysts, who would rather get crushed than change opinion.
blubrd, trust me… plenty of people on this thread do not like me or my comments, and that is fine. That said, I’ll be wrong and I’ll be right like anyone else here… but in this case nobody can show me 5 waves up from 1267, its text book overlapping 3′s… those are not impulsive.
read a few comments and you can see the “hate”…lol
I make one “smoking crack” comment, not even related to Tony at all… and the boo birds get crazy
lol, whatever
Well said, Blubrd -and thank you, yes that’s exactly what I was referring to. Nobody here is in the mood for tolerating bad behavior, imho, so please save the stuff for another audience David.
Well, this is Tony’s blog after all, and he is respectful toward everyone, so that’s a reason to keep posting, Further, even if there are some people who don’t like your posts, I’m sure there are plenty more who would like to hear from you. Of course, from all sides, without too strong emotional attachments to their opinions.
haters can hate, but I never jumped on the wave 3 up here… stuck with my zig zag retracement and back to 1267 or worse call
hate on
D
Your might – want to move on, to another wedsite. I did….
When the website, will not change, you can move on.
Take a look at http://ttheoryforum.wordpress.com
You may have to shell out a few clams, but the price is worth it.
And – you learn a whole new meaning to investing,,,,what’s that
phrase? Love yourself…..
Small caps RUT sports a clean 3 wave a-b-c pattern down from its 7/5 high.. daily chart has reached oversold with support at a rising lower BB.. I reckon a broard market bounce, or more than a bounce should not be far off now. Big caps have gone nowhere but sideways since late June.. weighing it up markets look ripe for a rip-snorting rally.
thx chairman
Take your emotions out of it…”Summer of Hate”. Media sure is playing on many minds…
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/forget-love-summer-hate-144507810.html
Dear gentlemen Dow Jones index reached our goal, in the case respecting the support may be aimed 12.565k 12.812k. If the loss can fetch the 12.565k 12.391k
analysys link.
http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com
SPX 1333 Does it have any magic left? GL all. I won’t fight it after this one.
That’s your magic pivot
Trans look like they’re breaking down. Curious if tech (AAPL) can pull another rabbit out of its hat again this quarter and extend the uptrend a few more weeks, as AAPL did after the first quarter
Kimble chart on trucking index pretty ugly…sorry for the cut & paste.
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2012/07/trucking-index-hitting-the-skids-of-late-going-to-impact-the-broad-market-again-like-it-did-in-2008/
thanks Rcun
Downward C’s or 3′s setting up in the indices
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/07/24/elliott-wave-noon-update-for-7-24-12-downward-cs-or-3s-setting-up-youtube/
For the past few months I’ve been suggesting to take a look at cycles and the NDX/OLD DOW pattern.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
M1 says:
March 31, 2012 at 9:11 pm
A look at cycles:
1. http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2012/03/four-year-cycle-approaching-crest.html
2. OLD DOW
1932 low – 1938 low = 6 years
1938 low – 1942 low = 4 years
NDX
2002 low – 2008 low = 6 years
2008 low – ?
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
It is the end of july next week and the market looks fine yet.
Tony, you are expecting the bull market to continue until 2013.
I do believe the “bull market” is over, but I am expecting a slow, but choppy correction bottoming in 2014.
However, I am still nervous that NDX may be repeating the old dow pattern. That scenario may be suggesting a real crash in the next few months surprising everyone.
Few were expecting the 2008 crash. The old dow pattern suggested that crash.
Still wonder if such a market crash could be possible ?
Anything is possible.But the NDX is a secondary index.Still bullish until mid-late 2013.
Something is for sure. If we get such a crash, I think that wouldn’t have been so dramatic if we haven’t had the FED behind all of this mess.
time will tell
WOW…just reviewing the posts….this is a tough house today. Must be beat up on David Banister Day. Better watch out or Obama will make it a Government Holiday and give all the government employees the day off….with full pay of course. ( he’d do anything for a vote)
Get use to it, Tony’s followers dont like people disagreeing and reminding them. I’ve been wrong before adn right before. My interpretation though of the waves differed quite a bitfrom Tony since 1267 and people dont like me for that. I think I was as totally respectful as possible on all my posts while disagreeing. If they want to start talking about my bad calls, I think Tony and everyone else here has had just as many as well.
market move fast, so Im not talking about QE3 to rely on a wave 3 up… Im watching teh patterns. the patterns have been overlapping 3′s at best, ABC-x- ABC to me…. not impulsive from 1267… never got 5 waves to that first rally zone either….
So if people dont like my opinion differing from beloved Tony, then they need to grow up.
I totally respect Tony’s work and think he is awesome… that doesnt mean I have to agree with his counts everytime
Good thing Tony didn’t agree with your count back in January – whew….! Did well on that 4 month rally while you were positioned for a crash. No one’s hating – just pointing out as you do – who’s accurate. I bet we’re hours here from a rip your face off rally BTW. Time will tell! GL…
I don’t think anybody cares that you disagree, David. But when you throw out quips like somebody must be “on crack” because their view differs, it does sort of open the door for some ridicule in my book. And I would certainly think that was not as ‘respectful as possible.’ Unless the ceiling on respectful comments these days has really come down.
The crack comment was NOT directed at Tony in case you didnt read… I was trying to be funny, which is hard to do with text or email I realize….. I was merely poking a jab at teh 1550-1600 year end target, which is only 5 months away…. the guy has a great resume, but that doesnt mean I cant have a little laugh and poke some fun. Man, some people have thin skin in here…
The “he is on crack” was directed at the projection of 1550-1600 by this Bannister analyst, excuse me for trying to goof a little.
tommy Boys
for the record, I was wrong in january but when we went past 1292 I threw in the bear towel and went bullish for quite some time after.
At the end of the day though, turned out the rally from 1074 october lows was only a 3 wave rally to 1422, and not a 5 wave impulse… it was a 3-3-5 in hindsight… which in my opinion is a B wave off the 1074 lows
This move from 1422 is a C wave with a 5 wave pattern, we are probalby in the first 50 points of wave 3 down
All right guys.The past is the past forget it.The present is a gift enjoy it.
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Tony, on your 60min SPX, could your i (to 1363.46) be a zz/W, ii is X, 1 to 1374.81 a minuette a of Y, and since then an irregular b/Y flat 1325-1380-now in c before c/Y to 1400+?
Raissone,That’s complicated.A count I noticed yesterday:Wave A 1363Wave B 1309Wave Ca 1375b 1325c 1380d 1338then a rising e to complete a diagonal C
Tony is there any chance we could be at a high in the USD. We are getting divergences on the RSI and MACD on the daily chart. We did not close above the previous swing high today.
WPM, Could be, but I have been early before
GOLD Time Ratio 138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/gold-time-ratio-1382.html
FTSE Time Ratio 138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/ftse-time-ratio-1382.html
still keeping high cash balances and swing trading portion of portfolio in individual names. Market still expected to retrace to 1267 if not worse in my opinion.
nice recovery today though, but after 2 trading days of falling it had to bounce somewhere
Any relation to Barry Banister?Barry’s calling for SPX 1600 by year end, led by Finanicals.
Sorry, no relation to Barry… who must be smoking crack to think of a 1600 year end SP 500 target, lol
Still seeing other than a 1267 test, possible drop to the 1074-1100 window to complete a large ABC pattern from 1370…. but one day at a time…
Cheers
d
http://www2.stifel.com/site/content.aspx?id=192&aid=52He is a five-time winner of the Wall Street Journal All-Star Analyst award, seven-time winner of the Forbes Magazine/Financial Times/StarMine top analyst award, Top-10 U.S. Stock Pick analyst for CNBC/Zacks, and four-time Institutional Investor magazine All Star Analyst (2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010). Mr. Bannister holds a B.S. from Emory College and an M.B.A. from Emory University School of Business Administration. He has held a CFA designation since 1991. Must be some good crack@
Hey, David ‘LOL’ Banister – rewind and be kind, would you.. and you dont have to smoke anything to draw a couple of monthly TLs to get to 1550-1600, so not sure what the problem with that # would be…deflation is not an option for Bernanke, sooo…
Tony, thanks! Gee it’s great that Dr. Ben is speaking tomorrow..I wish I had known that last Fri. and not bought stuff prematurely…anyways, with today’s low C=A at 1393…so we’re back to the original script..
I don’t think Barry’s smoking anything. My target is 1550-1600 as well. I think the permabears the European panic is the perfect fuel to shock the socks off everyone and provide a 30% up year. With everything that’s been thrown at the markets this year up to and including today we’re STILL solidly positive year to date. Pessimism is so thick you can cut it with a knife, insiders still buying it up, recent survey of millionaires – leaders in investment – indicates their money is going into the market while lemmings are getting out, record corporate cash hoards, yada, yada, yada…
Yes hey, David ‘LOL’ Banister, yes rewind to Dec 2011 Jan 2012.. After the pivot low at 1203 on 12/19 laughing boy Banister assigned a 70% bear 30% bull case, forecasting for lower lows… going long TZA at his ATP throughout the period. The market would track sideways a few days then gap up, track sideways then gap up.. this pattern continued on to 3/1.. added to TZA on 1/18 then closing out all on 1/19 and abandoning the 70% bear case having realised he was wrong.. laughing boy Banister wasn’t laughing much then when writing “Did anyone get the license plate number of the Egg Truck that flew by my office and tossed eggs on my face?” and “Defying all indicators that traditionally work for me, this market has continued to chug higher little by little”.
Then as quick as you can say Jack Robinson on 1/21 the slate is wiped clean and “We are in primary wave 5 up from the March 2009 lows and we should head to 1482 as initial projections for a pivot high at some point in 2012”.. and still waiting for that initial projection of 1482 David?. And now because someone puts out a forecast for SPX 1600 by year end.. must be smoking crack eh.. he is wrong.. I’m seeing 1267 and then 1074-1100.. yeah just keep laughing it up Mr Banister, because of course you are right aren’t you?
Should break below ES 1300 b4 a decent bounce – then 1335-1345 area . Its possible to bounce to 1353-1360 b4 the break of 1300 in which case that would be also a short entry – I see ES 1140-1150 coming b4 Bernank shows up at which time it wont work. FWIW
My system sees a spx at near 1300 reached at end of aug before heading to 1530 by jan to march. 30 days to go
Somewhat correlates to my scenario, only I believe it will happen faster (mid aug)
If the PPT would just stop hitting the flippin’ panic buttun this market could put in a decent bottom on its own … Benbernankster has got to lay off the double espresso’s and take a break from day trading
Well, I am glad to wait with my long entries. Today I started buying when we bounced of the trendline connecting 1267 to 1325. I almost got the low.
If we take this out, a test of 1290 isn’t unreasonable.