SHORT TERM: gap down opening pullback, DOW -121
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. European markets opened lower and dropped 1.7%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1371, and declined to 1367 by 10:00. The SPX had closed at 1377 yesterday. At 10:00 FED governor Duke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20120720a.htm. The market then tried to rally, but could only manage to gain 3 points before dipping to 1366. Another bounce to SPX 1370 followed by 11:00. Then the market zigzag’d it was lower to SPX 1362 just before the close, and ended the week at 1363.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.0%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.4%. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude slid $1.40, Gold added $4, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX drops to the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance back to the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite oversold. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 48.1% vs 47.8%.
The market gapped down today, for the first time since last thursday, on this Options expiration friday. The gap down dropped right below the OEW 1372 pivot at the open as the market headed into the 1363 pivot range. Nothing unusual, as the uptrend made a new high yesterday and ran right into resistance at the 1386 pivot range. The SOX index has rallied 8.3% off tuesday’s low. After yesterday’s SOX gap up opening, and weakness in INTC, a pullback was expected as well in this potentially leading sector.
Short term support is now at the 1363 pivot and SPX 1342/47, with resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold today. The OEW short term charts are still positive with the swing point right around SPX 1360. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Dear gentlemen Dow Jones index reached our goal, in the case respecting the support may be aimed 12.565k 12.812k. If the loss can fetch the 12.565k 12.391k
analysys link.
http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com
Dow Jones going to comply with technical objective of the double top
We have an online translator on the blog and the analysis of the chart on the link below
http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com
ABC X ABC double zig zag, still looks bearish to me from 1267, still expect retest
Cheers all
D
Any thoughts about this article: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/global-qe-coming-let-gold-mania-begin.
CT
The problem with debt is not only that it is enormous, but much of it is short term.This is why countries have to repeatedly go back to the bond market to rollover debt.If most of it was long term they would not need access to this type of investor as often.The FED has provided an example to the world’s Central Banks on how to address this problem with an Op Twist.With only marginal increases in their balance sheet.While it does look like a serious problem over the next few years.We’re not expecting the bull market in stocks to last that long, and it may be one of the reasons for the next bear market.Therefore, risk on will end by 2013 and that is not likely to help the gold market.
Thanks Tony!
We got the Big Red day right on cue. Looking for a ramp up to 1380 on Monday, and then lights out. GL and let’s be careful out there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVz_kJpv-Fs
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Tony, I’m curious what your thoughts are on the growing possibility of SPX 50 day moving average crossing the 200. Can we use Elliott Wave to parse this potential event?
RL, We use the 13/34 EMA which are a lot more short term.The 50/200 EMAs look to be rising together.While the 50/200 MA appears to be contracting.Do not kind the MAs significant at this time.
Good perspective Tony!
Indeed bears need to do more damage to kill the trend (I believe they will), but so far we bounced of some major support levels and the lows were consistently bought today. I thought about starting some buying, but I think I want a better price.
Did some buying here
Thanks Tony. Thanks tactical. Like ur comments guys about the ST support here..even though the 60 min RSI clearly needs some more work… this sneaky market could get around to it after we test the 1390 level though..Tony does the fact that we didn’t overlap 1361ish make you think this is an impulsive micro wave 3 up?
CB, The market came within one point of that level, and we still have monday/tuesday ahead.If the pit traders continue their current pattern.We could get a consolidation on monday, then a lower low tuesday before heading higher.If not, monday maybe the low.
Tony, so you feel this rolls into Mon/Tues before the uptrend to 1390+ due to no overlap? Wondering the same thing, since I read 1360 was OPEX bottom for traders.
Travis, Monday/tuesday should be the tell.
thanks Tony! Looks to me that on the 60 min chart exceeding 1372-73 would give us a nice lift….. and looking at how oversold the stochastics got, me thinks they’re not gonna touch 1361 again right away…we got so close to it and just weren’t interested…but in case they do…”average down” will be my motto…
….I’d rather be fishing too…happy weekend to you all! Tony, here’s ur weather f’cast btw 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mJJ2eUN5os
Tony: “If the pit traders continue their current pattern…” then they’ll keep doing their scenic route along the GA coast, and I mean our leader of the pack of course, Lee
Lee suggested selling everything near yesterday’s high. Definitely the pit bull with a pit.
That is bold. I bought most dips so far, but the candle pattern suggests that we aren’t done yet. I believe Monday could be a low volume sideways to up day, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we broke the wedge on the 3rd attempt (4th touch).
But I agree with you. Monday/Tuesday should tell and we won’t shoot straight down anyways. I enjoy reading your thoughts and that of all the other commenters here.
Actually not so bold … always use stops =)
Nice Tony – you get trading recommendations from the master
I am still using my free “I am on my own” guessing service….tossing a coin most of the time
We must have the same coin
Glad to read you place stops. I once read a book from a pro trader, who showed that at times he was only 30% correct and made money through excellent money management strategies.
I don’t like stops much these days. HFT bots sometimes eat them for breakfast, just before the move I predicted happens. But I use conditional orders to disguise my stops
I use some leftover euro coins Tony…they’re prophetic sometimes.. ..soon to become rare coins, btw.
ya never know
Tony, we talked last year. Been watching blog long time but not really an EW guy and want to learn how to read your charts and comments. Any suggestions? Can communicate on email so not to clog up your blog. Love the info but I am never sure how to proceed. For ex, if right I see us in upward channel to 1390 area right now? Is that correct?
Travis, You can contact me at caldaro@msn.com1390 at least … yes