SHORT TERM: market recovers, DOW +204
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher gaining 0.1%. Europe opened higher and rallied gaining 1.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the PPI was reported higher: +0.1% vs -1.0%. The market opened higher at SPX 1339 and began to rally. The SPX had closed at 1335 yesterday. Around 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 72.0 vs 73.2. The rally continued until noon when the SPX hit 1354. After that it appeared to stall: maintaining a 2 point range until around 3:00. Then it popped a bit higher to SPX 1358, and ended the week at 1357.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.50%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude gained $1.00, Gold rallied $15, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. Last night the FED reported an increase in the Monetary base: $2.65 tln vs $2.60 tln. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 47.8% vs 47.2%.
The market opened higher today, continuing its rebound off yesterday’s SPX 1325 low. The rally, however, has now carried a bit more than expected. After the 50 point, five wave, decline from SPX 1375-1325 the market has retraced more than 30 points to SPX 1358 in just over 24 hours. Bi-polar market, or a liquidity announcement over the weekend? Either way it still looks like a choppy uptrend. Will review all the charts this weekend. Best to you and yours!
MEDIUM TERM: choppy uptrend remains
LONG TERM: bull market
After completing a 5 wave sequence from 1375 at 1325, the market rallied right into the 1357-1358 resistance level. I would expect a pullback from here, perhaps to 1347-1348, but 1393 still looks like the next stopping point.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/07/fridays-market-071312.html
By the way, I am following this count … and I expect wave iii starting with a bang !! (wave iii of minor C . completing interm A)
http://scharts.co/MrQ5du
GL
with all due respect to the futures traders here, this is PRECISELY why I do not trade the SP 500, futures, and rarely ETF’s. I prefer individual stocks for swing trades, sad as it is… the single stock swing trade risk is more easily controlled than predicting the short term market swings.
Unreal and crazy market. I did think we would see 1355 rally for wave 2, but not in 24 hours as Tony said… 1364 next on deck I guess…. but a turn around the 18th looms
D
And to rant a bit further. China spends the last 12 months raising rates and changing bank loan requirements to cool things down, then in a few months they go and reverse all of that anyways. Just let the damn free markets do the work. The central bankers should all be shot in my opinion. This entire “I hope we get QE3″ stuff drives me nuts. They dont want the damn banks lending anyways, that would create hyperinflationary movements… jobs creation, another joke. Technology is totally transforming the labor force and the amount of labor needed will keep shrinking for years to come. Meantime we have 300 million now in the US and 200 million when I was a kid… no QE3 crap or Romney program is going to change that
Thanks Tony,
Bi-polar market ?….tell me !!…. the market went up 8 points more than I was expecting … and it is getting closer to my stop at 1362 !!
This is starting to look like july-august 2008 correction
GL
Tony
I like the spx better when it’s poppy and not choppy and droppy.
Definitely looks like a new spx 5 minute bull market started at 1325.41
Looking at the macd histogram:
sub wave 1 of wave 1 topped at 1:50 pm on Thursday at 1339.42
sub wave 2 of wave 1 bottomed at 4:00 pm on Thursday at 1334.41
sub wave 3 of wave 1 topped at 10:10 am on Friday at 1352.40
sub wave 4 of wave 1 bottomed at 10:30 pm on Thursday at 1349.35
I think possibly sub wave 5 of wave 1 topped out on Friday at 3:15 pm at 1357.70 and a wave 2 correction is underway. Histogram has almost switched back to bearish. A drop down to 1352 would be enough to complete a wave 2 correction.
thanks Rob
Most important thing is that the stinking commodity boom is over. Let’s rather have a final recession at its ending and then be good for the general economy to boom instead of the commodities.
agree
Bi-polar market? In one instance it’s sad and bearish. An instant later it’s all happy and bullish. Back and forth back and forth. This is getting a little childish Tony. Peek-a-boo market? Geez…
funny thanks
Hey Mik…nice video
) …and yes this market is def. pretty active…but besides being a bit OB intraday we now have a tradable bottom..so it’s on to the next target…fast, slow, with a few bumps ..or however they want to get there …this lady in the video apparently doesn’t understand what the purpose of playing peek-a-boo is (to teach kids separation from their mother -by covering some part of her face, for instance) and how to do it, so she’s doing it all wrong …geez, she’s gonna give the kid separation anxiety…kinda dumb..but the kid is sweet for sure 
Happy weekend!!
meant Mike, of course … typo, sorry
Thanks CB! Next week it’s earnings, guidance and GUIDANCE. Happy weekend all!!
Thanks Tony! Can we break out the “Dow 13000″ hats?
Possibly but hold onto your DOW 12,000 hat.
There have been some wild swings in this bipolar market but, looking at the RUT daily chart, yesterday’s hammer candle and today’s follow through looks like a textbook bullish reversal to me.
I know the market is making me giddy, but your answer really gave me a good laugh Tony.
I’m saving my “Dow 10,000″ hat for 2013.