SHORT TERM: market posts a lower low, DOW -49
Overnight the Asian markets mostly ignored yesterday’s US decline slipping only 0.2%. Europe opened lower but recovered some -0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the Trade deficit showed a slight improvement: -$48.7 bln vs -$50.1 bln. The market opened flat at SPX 1341, yesterday’s close. After a dip to SPX 1339 the market hit 1345 by 10:00. Also at ten Wholesale inventories were reported less positive: +0.3% vs +0.6%. Then the market went into a trading range until the FOMC statement at 2:00: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120711b.htm. After the report the market dropped to SPX 1333 by 2:30, setting up a positive divergence, and tried to rally. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1344 and ended the day at 1341.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rallied $2.20, Gold added $8, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying another positive divergence. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then the Budget deficit at 2:00.
The market opened flat today, then went into a trading range until the FOMC minutes were released. One half hour after the report the SPX made a new low for this pullback at 1333. The market then rallied from that low. But the SPX lost an important support level yesterday at 1344/47, which is now acting as resistance, and dropped through another today at 1334/38 before recovering. The uptrend from SPX 1267 to 1375 is starting to look more and more like an ABC, (see DOW charts). And this recent decline from 1375 is starting to look impulsive. Not good news medium term. Should the market start to recover these support levels, impulsively, then the uptrend can resume. If not, a retest of the SPX 1267 low is likely to coincide with a two year cycle Tech low in July/August.
Short term support for the SPX is at 1334/38 and then 1324/27, with resistance at 1244/48 and the 1363 pivot. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence at today’s low. The short term OEW charts remain negative from around SPX 1350, with the swing point now at 1348. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend looking quite choppy
LONG TERM: bull market
Tony – Maybe premature but looks like SPX drop of 1375 to 1325 was minute Ii (abc zig zag, 5-3-5). Rebound from 1325 would be start of minute iii, with darkest before the dawn or big fake out. Would like to see ii minute channel break out to confirm tomorrow. What do you think?
Newbie, If the DOW can hold 12,450 you’re good
Thanks, Tony. I appreciate the metric, and good thoughts.
I feel pretty good and safe with the 21′s but 10 points is 10 points. 1331.25 out -Great weekend all.
thx HD
Thanks HD
Cheers
Interesting BOND allocation chart by advisors. Now at 40%, the highest since… MARCH 2009
photo/1/large
getting close to a low
astrofibo — I love all these types of charts and believe that of great value…. The problem is no one understands what you are giving us. Are text summaries in addition possible to help better define all of your work? You were looking for a low into the weekend and then a high into where?
I hope you take this with a positive
Tony, how much should we expect for this intraday rebound ?
Can see five down from 1375.
is it invalid to see an uprising channel from the low of 3 waves… for a 5 wave up into 1420+?
** not my chart fyi..
http://chartupload.com/images/96872611062504618937.jpg
It’s okay if a diagonal triangle is forming
Actually, it looks to me like something started at 1362…. so, I would do expect abt 50% retrac…sounds reasonable ?
back to the 1340′s?
1340-1345 ? =)
Everybody knows were making a low tomorrow …….right ?
Today’s not the day
Right…….we make a LOW everyday………..and a HIGH too………….
scotty – are we still making a low tomorrow? is it possible your calendar was a day behind?
triple +div on spx 60-min. so far at least… unless we continue to sell off stronger and negate it
RC, traders may try to take out the low again before the market stabilizes for today.
so far that looks to be in the making
rc – I have been eyeing that divergence back to around the 9th and even with todays lower low there is indeed a divergence on the MACD
Seems like SPX will test 200sma in near future and failure to hold will be epic!
Apparently dropping thru the 200sma in the first instance followed by a quick rebound back up thru the 200 has often lead to another drop thru the 200 within several weeks.
C=A 1321
cheers HD!
HD – sorry not following – where is A?
Sorry if it seems like a ridiculos question but I don’t see A.
I see 1313 all over the place the last several weeks but not 1321
Thanks
Cheers
1302 ES A 1375 B – it looks and feels terrible right now.
OH – ES – right – sorry
Yes I would like to see it stop there so we can get on up
Thanks
Cheers
just realized those r 55′s. Interesting.
Okay – you got me again
What are now 55′s
The suspense is killing me
55 points 3,5,8,…..55
HD – got it – man I picked a rough week to quit the caffine – that’s it I’m off the wagon
Thanks HD
4 cups today for me- then I usually switch to lead based paint chips. Gotta keep my mind free.
Just got round to reading your new article on Gold.
I wondered if you’ve had a look at the Gold bull market of the 1930′s/40′s to see if it fits the same pattern?
Also do you have a target in mind for the current uptrend in Gold? Presume it would be an Int b wave if your correct about the bull market having ended?
Hi Alex, We do not have sufficent data for the 1933-1946 period to do the same type of analysis.This uptrend has been quite disappointing.Weakest uptrend since mid-2008.
Thanks Tony.
Presumably the uptrend should complete by early August, with a target at the upper boundary of the descending triangle from August 2011?
That would be very roughly $1680.
It has to be somewhere above $1642.2 does it not?
Had thought it could rally to $1725.No it does not have to exceed $1642.In fact, if it drops another $30 or so it will confirm a downtrend from that high.
Tony – we are right now at the 1326 (1327/1324) short term support.
Do you see a bounce anytime soon?
Market can bounce at any time, but not even oversold short term yet.
Thanks.
That would be a very odd-looking downtrend!
I’m looking at Peter Brandt’s small triangle from late March:
http://peterlbrandt.com/charts-i-am-watching-week-of-july-8-2012/
Seems we’ve moved to the lower boundary today. I think we should get at least one more excursion to the upper boundary before breaking out.
It doesn’t reach an apex until early September. Not sure what to make of that?
Take a look at the Silver chart posted for a count on Gold.
ASTRO Important Signature…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/astro-important-signature.html
????????????????
NAS Important High 3 April 2012…Reversal 5 July 2012…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/nas-important-high-3-april-2012reversal.html
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY last traded price: 5263.Current Hourly Trend: Down, Dynamic Trend SL: 5350.25. You may visit http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs?ref=ts. Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
The key levels to watch for today are 1346, and 1336. The market may be forming a semi-inverted corrective wave 4 from 1336, with an upper limit of 1346. A move above that would probably mean at least a short term move higher, with resistance at 131357-1358, and 1367.
A move below 1336 signal a continuation of the move down, with support at 1323-1326, and 1313-1315. 1318 looks like the number to the downside.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/07/wednesdays-market-071112.html
thanks Steve
Tony, if 1267 were not the final downside point, what would you expect at that level…how large could be the rebound ?
Mario,That would depend on lots of technicals when it occurred.
Your welcome Tony
Waves 4 and 5 of wave c completed today. Almost had a heart attack at the lod. No No No don’t break 1333. lol
Then a rally to the falling 5 min 20 ma started and then some choppy trading flattened it out. Then the explosive rally that usually results from dropping out of the predicted wave’s trading channel blasted off and faded a bit at the close. Bulls on Parade
Tac
Do you think the drop from 1422 to 1357 in April was a wave 4 correction?
Not deep enough. The trip down to 1266 was deep enough. Deeper than deep enough.
When was the last time an abcde corrective rally in a bear market happened where the nyad cumulative hit 52 week highs?
Interesting day, banks up 0.75% & vix down 4%.
SPX close right on the major support line (of the rising wedge or leading diagnoal, what ever you want to call it)…. careful!
NASDAQ and DOW are now below the major support line… not looking good.
RUSSELL looks better with its choppy pullback… could rally.
Banks being bullish looks good… in a triangle, if pops above markets could get bullish.
Market seems to be holding up OK amongst the gloom & doom.
Seems like an each way bet at this time.
Colin Twiggs says today;
The S&P 500 is advancing on the weekly chart toward another test of 1420, but falling momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary decline. Failure of primary support at 1270 would confirm, offering a target of 1170*. In the shorter term, recovery above 1370 would indicate a test of 1420. Breakout above 1420 is unlikely at this stage — especially with money flowing into bonds.
The US Dollar Index rallied to test resistance at 83.50. Breakout would target the 2010 high of 88.00. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating above the zero line indicates a strong up-trend.
I’m wondering if a US dollar index breakout will be the ‘nail in the coffin’ for equities?
Thanks for the update Tony. Thanks for the charts, Tacticalstrategy and almostnrml.
With Lee going coastal, one would have to expect a relentless rally during that time.. lol….enjoy the Southern hospitality you guys!!
If we can leave the ichimoku cloud pretty soon, that last scenario is a real possibility , or else we’ll be grinding through the range as shown in the cloud chart. Enjoy ur evening guys! http://screencast.com/t/Qa6PQkfn
First the Heat and now the Cloud … thanks CB
three peaks and domed house theory is circulating again..
http://www.peaktheories.com/self.php?id=1551
interesting charts and comments..
not trading it yet.. still like the mamis sentiment chart and wondering if we are at anxiety or denial. (from a previous post http://bit.ly/N3fzR9 )
Very interesting charts !
Well heellloooo Abigail Doolittle
I like this one. good eyes almost!
If you squint and think EW over layed the pattern could be just headed to 23.
I like 1444
wow, 1444.. that would be nice, HD.. a cool 161.8 ext..thanks!
http://carlfutia.blogspot.ca/
If you read down, you will read Carl Futia’s interpretation of the 3 peaks/domed house from this morning’s report.
Thanks Tony.
Glad to see Carl give credit to George Lindsey for the 3PDH pattern. Tom Bulkowski was likely still a twinkle in his mothers eye when this pattern was discovered!!!
Jeff Mullins the original No. 23 !
Thanks David !
@ Golden State that is !
Hello Tony. I am seeing this whole move from 6/4 as a larger B-wave triangle.
Count is here:
http://tacticalstrategist.com/2012/07/11/potential-e-wave-bounce-update-2012-07-11/
It flows well with the overall picture and a re-test of the lows that I have been expecting for a while.
speaking for myself that looks like a count that a Robot could even love !
Thanks Tac for sharing here.
Glad you like it. As a bullish alternative, I could see this as a leading diagonal, but even those get retraced very deeply, which could become a shakeout before moving higher. Until we have seen this, I think it is prudent to be careful.
That said, I should heed my own advise. I am mostly long
possible Tac
Thank you – interesting pattern you describe – appears to fit the 7/17-18
cycle date as well, noted. But, from your chart. It also appears you
pointing to roughly, today being a pivotal date, in time/price. Good
chart, again thanks….
Tony – appreciate your work as well….Bud
Thanks. Cycle dates are purely coincidence, since I don’t monitor those. However, now that you bring it up, I realize that Andre Gratian has this cycle date as a low, whereas I have a high of an E wave. Hm. I respect Andre’s opinion. Should be interesting
Hm. Maybe the cycle low means an E-wave failure (shallow up).
Thanks Tony !
My wife and I are heading to the Carolina’s and Georgia’s coast for a few weeks so if anybody here who lives that way would like to offer free room and board (food and drinks included) let me know !
enjoy!
Lee X
I lived in Raleigh for a few years and my brother played B Ball for UNC Charlotte for Jeff Mullins as well back in the day. Nice state… enjoy!
Far as market concerned… doing its best to keep us all in the dark
Thanks Tony
D