SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW -83
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1359. The market had closed at SPX 1352 yesterday. Within the opening minutes the SPX neared the OEW 1363 pivot when it hit 1362. That was the high for the day. After hitting slightly overbought, short term, the market started to pullback to close the opening gap. It did that and more. At 11:00 the SPX hit 1348, held until 12:30 as it bounced to 1352, then headed lower again. By 3:30 the SPX hit 1336 then bounced to close at 1341.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude slid $2.00, Gold dropped $19, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance still at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum touched slightly overbought off yesterday’s positive divergence, then dropped to quite oversold. Tomorrow, the Trade deficit at 8:30, Wholesale inventories at 10:00, then the FOMC minutes at 2:00.
The market gapped up today and looked like it was heading higher. When it started to pullback off the SPX 1362 high, it appeared headed back down to close the opening gap. But when it continued beyond that level, nearing yesterday’s low at SPX 1347, it appeared to have reversed its momentum. The rally off that low lasted about 1.5 hours and was a weak 4 points. When the market started to pullback again it gained downside momentum when breaking through yesterday’s SPX 1347 low. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1336, the next support zone, and bounced into the close.
Today’s pullback was a lot more than expected and this uptrend is again looking quite choppy. We’re maintaining the 1-2, i-ii count posted on the SPX charts. But this recent rally from SPX 1309 is not trending as expected. If the market breaks the SPX 1334/38 support zone this entire uptrend will start to look more and more like an ABC. The alternate count posted on the DOW charts. Short term support is at SPX 1334/38 and 1324/27. Overhead resistance is now at SPX 1342/47 and the 1363 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day oversold. The short term OEW charts turned negative on the break below SPX 1347, with the swing point still at 1350. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
will be interesting to see what Tony says tonight… he did not sound bullish although we did do what he thought we could do – get into 1333-1336…
H D – are you bullish ES with your gann hit? It was also a pretty nice target area with fib convergence too? Let’s see if wegot shaken enough to go higher…
Lee, I don’t see any pattern in them. Just panic. The ES is giving me the same play over and over.
I understand H D and it’s a great time to trade with the options of so many different contracts
Panic is a pattern to old horses like me . I love it
Some freaky bots!
lol..HD…sounds lika Gaga via a synthetizer or sth like that..
or synthesizer…well obvioulsy I don’t have any since I can even spell it correctly.
Thanks all. Have a nice afternon. Thanks Tony!
Those BOTS have bad intentions ! nice
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qcl4NPiHz0Y
hahaha u found a nice one !
So what kind of market is it when the only traders interested in buying are the shorts afraid to hold over night for fear of geting sprayed with the a liquidity gun … or Liquidity Cannon …
ha… a highly motivated market
indeed!
Bazooka!
666.xx *2 =1333 Gann
Thanks H D
U see the close in ZW ?
Thinking some ES traders switched over late
They can have em. I’ve lost almost all interest in them. Firing wedges at the pin with ES.
really ? I would think ud love that action.
ES ye ole 99% er
haa Lee…this ‘creation’ must be taking those robot dance lessons u were talking about …nice !! the only thing I have in comon so far is …my Vaio..
thanks HD
fed minutes and ticklish robots
CL is robot central
every move down looks like 3 waves in CL to me
should trade H D’s $90 soon IMHO
you see waves
U guys thinking 1339 is resist in SPX now ?
Thanks
even with the mute on I can tell CNBC is in major bear mood
haa..that’s a nice gift u have Lee
Hey C B
It’s almost comical isn’t it ?
yeah Lee, it’s showtime!!…lol.. they’re having fin, we’re having fun..it’s OK..
)
oops..having fun.,..that is ‘ fin’ would be like the “end”….but no, no end to their spinning in sight ..lol
retesting the scene of the crime at 1330 on 6/29 Euro bailout day…if it holds it could be rather interesting heading into Options expiration next week..
almost covered the gap from 6/29 -not quite though yet
Hi all, Just a few comments from the cornbelt here in Iowa…. No rain in sight. The local guys are thinking they have a couple of days before major damage to our corn crop here. Rain forecast is dismal – 10 day weather forecast has 0% forecast for the next 4 days, then 10% for the next 4 days, then 20% for a day, then back to 10%. Draw your own conclusions. Am seeing one entire soybean field near us beginning to turn brown. I sold our last remaining 2011 corn on Monday for $7.55. Not many have sold forward on the 2012 crop-most new purchases of land over the past year has been well over $7000+/acre & that needs $7+/bu corn so they’ve been unwilling to contract at futures prices under $7. Because of the unusual spring weather, many jumped the gun & got crops planted a month early. However, the planting date for eligibility for federal crop insurance was only moved up about three weeks so the guys that planted very early won’t been covered by federal crop insurance. Shaping up to be a very unusual year for ag.
thanks McKennedy
Tony – I see the divergence on RSI now on 60 minute charts – been eyeing that all day.
Thanks as I have been trying to learn how to read that and now I see it marked by “the master”
Thanks
pbnj
we’ll see if it holds
Thanks MCK
Indeed – I know it is not supportive of anything really – especially on short time frames but just interesting none the less.
Thank you
pbnj
MCK: Real world info. G8…Thanks!
http://farmfutures.com/story.aspx/farmers-destroy-corn-permission-crop-insurance-0-61433 Yep MCKs the real deal from way back..just a follow up liink to her comments
ugly. and SPX MACD signal just crossing down. crossed up in early june. prob will spark some add’l technical selling
we hold some fib levels of 1333 – 1336…. 4 days down plus today… all other drops were 4 days down… I could see an A B C now? 3 3 5?
what are your thoughts for possible EW patterns in position 2 Tony? expanded flats, running corrections and triangles are not common unless we have a combo pattern? Combo patterns common in your opinion at 2?
If the low is in yesterday is it possible for us in your work to go up and test 1375 then down for C into this area and still be in wave ii or is it too much time taken?
I guess looking for what you want to see. A new low and then a move higher is the easiest as we would get more of an A B C for ii?
Thanks – I know it is a lot or EW questions –
well we have the new low…. disreagard all the other garbage
To sum it up … I see trouble ahead
Merde…UST10y with just 14% primary dealers interested. What do they know we don’t? or what do other need we may need?
CL is saucy as heck… I can’t believe more folks here dont trade it
$90- $96 ?
still thinking that’s possible
Thanks Tony
CL stopped at Fridays high.
ZC circus
U guys have a great day !
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-approves-high-frequency-trade-audits-2012-07-11?link=MW_home_latest_news
Ok fellars enjoy
wiping the dust off an old stand by just in case
the sound you hear is consolidation, before next leg down?
FOMC minutes + BOTS = 1313 ?
ya never know
I certainly don’t
Wild spread between S&P – DOW – NASDAQ
Hindsight alert !
Think maybe ZC just put in a ST term high this morn.
It’s loco mang !
check out the pivots in ZC today if u guys get a chance
hahaha on a roll today Lee
Tony, how large could be a normal intraday rebound at this point ?
Looks like five down from 1375, with 1347-1362 waves 3 and 4.
five down from i for ii doesnt work to well? What are you seeing then TOny for us to move higher? we need a small lower low here for a W-X-Y?
We do not use wxy, neither did Elliott.Seeing 5 down from 1375.To move higher we need a lower low [1336]. Then a good rally.If not we can just keep heading lower.
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This has been a very difficult market lately. Kudos to anyone who has been on the right side lately. Until we can get above 1361.54, I would still be looking for a move lower. Support at 1326-1323, and 1315-1313. Resistance at 1357-1358, and 1367.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/07/tuesdays-market-071012.html
Thanks Tony, what would be a normal projection for the expected wave C ? …
1267 retest
THX..
“Another alt count, the move up from the 1267 low could also be a LD” chairman67! nice. Thx for that idea. I’m in 5 and looking for a terminal pattern so the 3′s are just fine with me.
Leading Diagonals were not an original R.N. Elliott Theory though, it was added by Prechter and Frost later on. That said, its possible yes… but we would need a big wave 5 up here to start pretty soon, and the recent correction from 1375 doesnt look like 3 waves. an LD must be 5-3-5-3-5 in pattern, but again… its worth noting I agree.
This is what this blog should be about, pointing out possible counts and narrowing it down. People should not get so easily offended when someone disagrees with Tony’s counts… its Elliott Waves after all…
cheers
David, People offer alternate counts all the time.Correct, we explore the possibilities.In fact, sometimes I offer alternate counts.We try to deal with the most probable.Then project, monitor and adjust.Looking at the SOX, for instance, suggests the two year cycle has not bottomed yet.
Thanks Tony
“People should not get so easily offended when someone disagrees with Tony’s counts”
I absolutely agree ! It’s just the presentation of saying things over and over again on the same point is all. Anybody can come in on a low or high print and remind us of ones opinions here..over and over. Thats all I’m sayin Personally I cant count waves to save my life.
Thanks David
Sorry Tony for blowing the spx 5 minute count again.
When I saw the rally to 1361 give it all back, I realized that was the wave b counter trend rally and that wave c is underway.
Looking at a 15 min chart:
Wave A started at 1373.85 on thurs at 2:15pm
1 ended at 1348.70 of fri at 2:45pm
2 ended at 1356.19 on fri at 4:00pm
3 ended at 1347.44 on mon at 10:45am
4 ended at 1352.08 on mon at 11:00am
5 ended at 1346.65 on mon at 12:15pm
Wave b:
a ended at 1352.62 on mon at 1:45pm
b ended at 1346.67 on mon at 3:00pm
c ended at 1361.54 on tues at 9:45am
Wave C
1 ended at 1347.89 on tues at 11:15am
2 ended at 1351.64 on tues at 12:45pm
3 ended at13.36.27 on tues at 3:45pm
wave 4 is currently underway and since wave 3 extended, wave 5 should be short.
The good news is that the spx has once again fallen out the bottom of wave 3′s predicted trading channel, so hopefully we get another big move to the upside when this 5 min spx bear market ends.
thanks Rob … choppy market
thanks Tony. That +d still looking good if not better after today http://screencast.com/t/jebnmcMdEeu
Tony, there were some blurbs on Bloomberg about those two Fed members recetly speaking in favor of QE3..do you keep track of those guys?…any changes in attitudes that you are detecting recently, perhaps (?)..thanks
which guys CB?
The Fed members who support QE-3-ing, Tony….I think one of them was Rosengren (not sure whether I spelled his name correctly?) and another one recently
Unless they are one of the top three they are probably just keeping the markets passified with possibilities.
\
oh, OK, pacifiers for the baby…sounds Good Tony
carrots 4 da rabbits
Tony, who are the top 3?
I believe they 1′s commenting were; John Williams, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Chicago Fed president Charles Evans. (On the other hand, Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker, one of the most hawkish Fed officials, downplayed the recent soft data)
Ben, Janet and Bill Dudley
Thanks guys..hmm.I thought Mr Fisher was the top honcho there..
Tony, I’m struggling to see a continued rally in US equities without policy response from FED or ECB. It appears a slowing global economy and rising USD have finally put pressure on US earnings and so far it looks like earnings might disappoint so any significant bounce looks like a sell or short looking for lower levels in months ahead. Yesterday’s chatter of QE3 by FED members didn’t help markets today. The Chinese are easing so It’s going to be interesting to see when the Shanghai stops dropping amongst such easing…. I see CAT got smashed today.
Thanks Tony – appreicate your views….Bud
Tony, your Gold déjà vous were in fact a better heading then the more “corect” dèjà vu
Nevertheless, Bunds made a very schizophrenic long green tail today after a long red tail yesterday all this very close to the 76% fibo level. My take is that we are getting near the Bund turn around. Just need a down confirmation (4hr or daily) and I’m short again.
Thanks Tony !
I would like to meet certain people in person here and give them a nice “hug” Chicago style.
Today was one of those 20% days in SPX and no #’s today so go figure.
I’m just a hack day trader so I don’t know nuttin about nuttin but I would worry more about being right than hoping others are wrong on the internet blogs.
“I’m just a hack day trader so I don’t know nuttin about nuttin” nobody is buying that Lee! All those years of experience. You know the set ups. We are all ears when your ready to share em.
Yep, market tanked without the benefit of news.Will be important how Asia reacts
Lee..lol…wow, ur ready to fight?…hey Lee with ur superior trading skills there is nothing you need to prove to anyone
..especially to people who are much less skilled that yourself…Dave is just doing his favorite thing – throwing in conversational grenades and waiting to see who takes the bait…it’s so geminian, isn’t it?… and it’s just really funny…why being bothered by it……
Thanks for the update Tony. So far we haven’t broken the bearish wedge on the S&P 500 yet and we are clawing to my 1340 support level. Doesn’t look good though. Maybe we will get the retest of the June low a bit sooner than I expected. Too early to tell.
ASTRO Latitude Venus 2000-13…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/astro-latitude-venus-2000-13.html
What does this tell us??? I dont follow — thanks
Volatility like 2001-02 and 2007-09, is related to amplitude of Venus Latitude Cycle…
Until the next weekend we have the low of the cycle who has started May 1…
May be a low there…
I am sorry, you are saying we could have a low into this weekend or we have a low now or? Thank you
A possible low for the weekend…
please read the update
Recently Tony you counted the 1363 pivot as Wave 1, 1309 wave 2, and then 3 underway. Can you show a chart with 5 waves from 1267-1363? Wouldn’t you need 5 waves to count that as a 1 of 5 of 3? If it looks so obvious as a 3 wave rally, then why not have that be the preferred count and the wave 1 1363 be the alternate?
You yourself said that the rally to 1363 looked like 3 waves and had you concerned at one point. Why did you then change your mind that 1363 was 5 waves leading to a Wave 1 pivot when it just days prior you said it looked like 3 waves?
Im thinking objective elliott waves would have seen the clear 3 wave move and not 5, that’s all.. sometimes I dont follow your changes in thinking is all.
Trying to understand
Thanks for your work as always
Again, no offense… just trying to understand your 1, 2, and 3 counts from 1267… maybe you use a different time frame on your charting?
Another alt count, the move up from the 1267 low could also be a LD for wave 1 up, which would account for the 3 wave choppy wave structures. The current decline over the last 4 days would be iv of 1 up. So v up next to around 1405ish would complete wave 1 of LD up then wave 2 down would follow after that. Its another possability is all.
agree
David, Was always concerned about the sloppiness of the first rally.Despite the uptrend confirmation I offered the ABC alternate count in the DOW and NAZ.Perferred the 1-2, i-ii because we are in an uptrend.But in the back of my mind was the ABC.Sometimes things are quite clear. Sometimes not …
Thanks Tony for the reply. Apparently some of your readers get their panties in a bunch if I dare to disagree or question your counts, I tried to be as diplomatic as I could but still torqued a few people off
Guess we will find out, as always… lol
Cheers