SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -36
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, as well, and the market opened lower at SPX 1353. The SPX had closed at 1355 on friday. Within the opening minutes the SPX touched 1355 and then pulled back to 1347 by 10:30. A rally attempt to SPX 1352 followed by 11:00. But the market dipped again to retest SPX 1347 by noon. Another rally followed to SPX 1353 by 1:30. But it was followed by a pullback to 1348 by 2:30. At 3:00 Consumer credit was reported higher: $17.1 bln vs $6.5 bln. The market then bounced again heading into the close to end the day at SPX 1352.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude rallied $1.25, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a positive divergence at today’s lows. Tomorrow the economic slate is clear.
The market opened lower, then dipped down 1 point below friday’s low to SPX 1347. Finding support at the SPX 1342/47 range the market tried to rally a couple of times with not much upside progress. Overall today looked like a consolidation day before the market’s next move. Naturally, with the market in an uptrend, we expect the next move to be higher. Once the SPX clears 1358 it should be on its way. However, after reviewing a few technicals we would like to see the SPX hold above 1339. Should it break this level then there could be more downside ahead.
Short term support remains at SPX 1342/47 and then 1334/38. Short term resistance is at the OEW 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence at today’s lows. The short term OEW charts ended the day just above neutral with the swing point around SPX 1350. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
I know I am nothing to your level — but on the SPX – from both lows we have some convergence at 1334-1335 — 61.8 fib from your low of 2 and 38.2 fib from the start of 1… Is their any comfort in this? Could we have here a 1-2 1-2 setup? Thank you for your time
Also the 20dma and the 50dma is here… as I am sure you know
A 1-2, 1-2 from 1267 has been the count … if that’s what you mean
Yes so is it possible for this to be the lesser degree two just now completed? I didnt know what you were counting sorry? You had had 1339 – and those fib convergences were around 34-35 (not sure if you use fib work) – rather new here
We use a lots of things … questions are good
50MA bounce time
now that we’re at Tony’s 1339 threshold we’ll probably get a bounce. just to keep maximum confusion in the market.
1339 broke..
If only by 0.35 for less than a minute..
rounded off still 1339
Think like a BOT
yes, confusion – that is the operative description…nice..
Hi Tony,
Well you called for this as possible correction into this area… Are you seeing this as bullish still?
Still see a decent positive divergence on the 60 minute even with today’s low.
Tony – am I reading that correctly?
Sorry – with respect to RSI vs. S&P price
today’s pop to overbought negates that
Right now the short term chart patterns will look negative if 1339 fails too
Hello – What is your minute degree count for the wave 3 that you are modeling that we are in? Thanks Tony — this is gplan with a WordPress account for now on
We just hit, I believe, an important level (1339).If the short term count is still good we should move up from here.If not, the market will probably head back to the 1313 pivot
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
MA89- long way to the 1313.
yeah. i’m out. i cut out right above the HDivot! live to fight another day…
thx RC. I feel like a one man wolfpack sometimes with those ES #’s… What r u seeing? any pattern?
looks to me like a decent probability of a corrective ABC from 1267 to 1375. 50MA at 1337 could come pretty quick.
at the same time i recognize that we’re still in an upward channel and a lot of intermediate term indicates are supportive of continued upside. when i have a plan i allow for some degree of deviation. however, today’s action was too far of a deviation from my plan. so i cut and wait to see what forms next and create a new plan. i typically trade the 1-2 month timeframe, just fyi
thanks RC … similar thoughts here
bounce looks pretty weak so far. we sold off 13.5 spx points in a heartbeat and have only been able to take back 3.5 of them.
yup
Is that easy ??…. take others people money ?? … this shouldn’t happen never again !! ..this is quite disappointing
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44353850
MF Global 2.0
Does anybody really think any of the banks can produce all of our funds?
tony caldaro says:
July 10, 2012 at 10:05 am
3 legs down now
that’s bad, no? then two legs up, then… uh oh…?
Gap up today was fine, but pullback a bit more than expected.Thought they would just close the gap and head higher.Yesterday’s lows look important at this juncture.
couldn’t agree more. today so far looks much like 6/26. that day ended up okay. but we’re going to need to keep moving up from here to have a chance. pretty precarious!
=)
Hey Tony….Asking you to consider – following – Sears SHLD – find it as good
as some of those tech’s you used to track…..Yes, I follow it – wishing to share
a good up/down investment with your following…..Bud
Bud, Did Eddie Lampert finally figure out how to run a retail business?
Probably not – but the stock share price went from 28 to 80 ish….
There is a reasonable amount of trend ability their, unlike the SP
that is covered…..just looking for better ways to trade this market.
I take it, you rather not – Okay….
Mr.Lampert seems to have decided on Florida. A “billionaire”, Tony.
Still, Sears is an easier guess, than the SP500. My change, my choice.
God Bless….
Looks like they got a new CEO in 2011.http://www.searsholdings.com/govern/
sears/kmart does’tn their value stem, to a large degree, from their reals estate holdings…some of those locations in majpr citoes are pretty valuable on its own
on their own…sorry
boy that gap was filled easily. hot knife through butter coming back down.
this mkt looks sick. anybody else think if we don’t turn it around and rally today then we’re in trouble?
Im not in the wave 3 camp as everyone knows.
I’m in the ABC counter rally camp followed by 5 waves down camp as MOST likely… action seems to be bearish…
i’m definitely no EW guru, but this action just doesn’t feel like how I think a 3rd wave should feel. selling of rips and no buying of dips. feels more like an ABC rolling over. unfortunatley
hahaha we mos def know that David
But hey u don’t trade futures and it’s all just for fun as u say
Have a gooden
You got it lee…E waves can be interpreted as we all know totally differently by 2 people with alot of experience, one will MAYBE be right, the other wrong…. its how it goes
My interpretation has been clear from the 1260′s lows… A 3 wave likely rally, and then 5 more waves down
We will see if that works out. I totally respect Tony’s work, but I did not see 5 waves from 1267-1363 on that initial rally up…. and that only confirmed my caution
Cheers
D
still using 1347.50 GL
HDIVOT
Well we broke 1358; now need to see what happens here. Was that a gap fill only (as we have two others) and trying to run stops before we continue higher per your analysis? Is the 1358 number on a closing basis or intraday. Thank you for your time.
this is a bit more than expected, would be careful here
Tony, when you say “clear 1358″ is that intraday or close? this mkt really seems to struggle to hold any gains.
RC intraday.But we hit another R2D2 this AM, right when Lee noted ‘pivot time’ (1363 pivot).Looks like yesterday’s low is a good stop.
annoying. i wish somebody would unplug them for just a day
hahaha … BOTS
“In order to beat your enemy, you must first know your enemy”
We all have the same charts #’s info ect.. To win u have to get a little dirty sometimes.
Trade well my friends
haha true. so true. 2 legs down, gap filled. rally time…?
3 legs down now
Hey R C
Marketwatch just changed their headline from this mornings hype so it’s possible.
10 handle rule yadda yadda
Is this the 3 legged dog formation ?
Globex lows and Elliott’s support
GL fellars
thanks Lee
Hi guys …nice pivot call Lee!…and I missed that whole action today, dang it..
Otherwise the next thing that’s jumping out is this daily TL and 38% from 1306ish at 1332.85. http://screencast.com/t/CAh5A0f9
) And if the market is a 3-legged dog, then the only rule I can think of is… well, I try to remind myself: don’t stand between a dog and a hydrant…oh well, I do that sometimes, don’t I..geez
fwiw, we have a confl. right here @1341 =50% from 1415 to 1267
@1340.86 =50 % from 1374ish to 1306ish
And rsi (14)@ 50 at 1341ish. Plus those rising 20ema and 50ema -chart below
So if we find support here, these numbers must be the reason. If we don’t, then they are ….also the reason..
Nice trading adaptation from Sun Tzu, Lee! –can you do that more often..it should be fun and educational..
oh and Tony’s daily 34 ema at 1340.98 also..sorry didn’t notice until now..
thanks everyone ..have a great afternoon
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OK…IT LOOKS LIKE THE GAME IS STARTING AGAIN ….=)
GL
morn
If these markets don’t make sense to you ur 1/2 way there.
Tony ur support held…again
Lee, make that Elliott’s support
fair enough…pivot time
gaps .stops .robots Like I said
ASTRO Longitude 2007…2012…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/astro-longitude-20072012.html
hi astrofib
i am not sure how to reply to your blog i really like your charts may i ask what you use to create those charts thanks for your help ciao
I use Excel…
It looks like today’s action completed another 5 wave sequence from the 1375 high. I still see a move higher, initially to 1356, or 1368, which should signal a continuation of the uptrend from 1267. The market could still make a series of slightly lower lows, but if we break today’s low of 1346.65 by a couple of points or more, we could be headed substantially lower.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/07/mondays-market-070912.html
Still choppy overlapping waves from 1267-1375 in my eyes
Still cautious and still think we may see some serious corrective action yet
No 5 wave pattern on SP 500 from 1267-1363 rally…. only 3 waves overlapping
so… I’ll stick with my views of more downside than upside….hoping I’m wrong
best all
d
Your welcome Tony
Little confused, the last half hour of trading on Friday was statistically significant on the rising 50 5 minute ma. Looked like a new 5 min bull market being born. First time I’ve seen that fail.
Look’s like a 5th wave down in the 5 min spx bear market occurred this morning to a lower low. 5 min spx looks like a new bull market is underway. Subwave 1 ran from the lod: 1346.65 at 12:05 pm to 1362.59 at 1:15 pm. Then a subwave 2 correction bottomed at 1347.67 at 2:50 pm. Subwave 3 of wave 1 of a new 5 min bull market is underway and a higher hod occured at the end of the day.
Just started opening the 50 period bb’s to the upside. ie statistically significant. None of the early lod and the final lower lod were.
For the last several hours SPX has been getting support along the rising 50 hour ma, currently at 1351.34
thx Rob
some light reading
Sure it’s old news in the current cycle
http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/07/09/pfgbest-missing-220-million-customer-segregated-fu#.T_tqORAd8EB.twitter
http://www.pfgbest.com/
Here’s the website…nothing to see move along
WTF! we have way too much trust in our system. Tony’s W2 down? Run em all? Maybe.
I feel out of sync with this market and grains are beyond cognition for me. Scalpy scalpy
what are you seeing?
thanks Lee. Wow, these guys used to advertise quite a bit…forced liquidations in the market again??? geez
the link to the disciplinary action if anyone has an acct with them.. http://www.nfa.futures.org/BasicNet/Case.aspx?entityid=0396397&case=12MRA00007&contrib=NFA
Hi Tony,
I follow PUGs site whom has a different opinion as to where the US markets are at;
I think you have 667 in March 2009 as a Super Cycle 2 (SC2) low. Whereas PUG has 667 as the Super Cycle 4 (SC4) low. I think your count means the DJIA form the Great Depression low in the 1930′s until Oct 2007 was in SC1 then there was only a 1.5 year correction from Oct 2007 to Mar 2009 for SC2.
By PUGs work, SC3 ended in May 2000 after the SC3 run form the Great Depression low of the 1930′s. The SC4 correction was a large expanded flat move from May 2000 to March 2009 correction. And now we are in SC5 up.
So I think you have SPX in SC3 & PUG thinks SPX is in SC5. I think you are looking for another multi decade stock market expansion for SC3. And PUG thinks SC5 could in end the next 3 to 6 years, before the equity markets fall apart in a Grand Super Cycle Degree correction.
I’m curious as to your thoughts of PUGs count that SPX is in SC5 vs your count that SPX is in SC3??? as there seems to be vastly different outcome over the next several years. Cheers
Hey Lee, was today an X wave temp. wise around here?
T101
Oh that would suck ! But I was given the choice long ago to either believe in X waves or Bigfoot and I chose Big Foot.
You guys are always on broil down there this time of year but that was insane..especially Saturday when it made my eyes hurt.
How’d that sweater treat ya today ?
U know the rule ….if u made money wearing it u have to ride that horse til it throws u off.
Was like that for 10 days.Sun is usually pretty hot around here.But with no humidity it turns into a desert sun.
Read a brief article suggesting a global collapse in auto sales is coming up….
http://www.safehaven.com/article/26117/global-collapse-in-auto-sales-coming-up
Tony, assuming 1339 holds then what approx upside target are you thinking in this uptrend before next sizeable correction?
Expecting it to grind its way higher from here.Kind of like January and February of this year.SPX 1475 would be nice.
Ok, and what are your thoughts if SPX drops below 1339 in coming days? Cheers
None until it happens
FTSE Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/ftse-time-ratio-1618.html
SPX daily put in a bullish hammer today as well, for those who like things that hold candles
Thanks RC !
DAX Time Ratio 138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/dax-time-ratio-1382.html
Thanks Tony. I never dreamed 90 degrees would feel so good.
One more low tomorrow morning (1342-1345.5 SPX)
Then up we go? That’s my story,and I’m sticking to it.
EURUSD Fibo 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/eurusd-fibo-618.html
2 days of weakness and a red Monday? Hook, line, and sinker.
bearish?
Not really, was using the 1347.50 level today, they traded down from that twice today but I also saw the +D building today. I think your support #’s hold. JMO. I am having hard time with all the 1-2′s though. Thx Tony.
Thanks Tony
The only break I saw today was ur local weather
major break
Happy for ya’ll down there.
I take that back.. Feeder Cattle made a new year low for obvious and unfortunate reasons
Thanks again for the extra up dates u have been sharing Tony