SHORT TERM: gap down opening market recovers, DOW -47
Overnight the ECB and BOC both lowered rates, and the BOE increased their Bond purchase program by 50 billion pounds. Asian markets were mixed gaining 0.2%. European markets opened higher but lost 0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:15 the ADP was reported higher: 179K vs 136K. Then at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 374K vs 388K. The market gapped down at the open, nevertheless, to SPX 1368. It then bounced to SPX 1371 before heading straight to the 1363 pivot by 10:00. At 10:00 ISM services were reported lower: 52.1 vs 53.7. Right around that time the market started to recover. By 2:00 the SPX had closed the opening gap when it hit 1374. However, it then started to pullback heading into the close, ending the day at SPX 1368.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slid 75 cents, Gold fell $18, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX slips back to the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance now at 1372 and 1386. Short term momentum declined to neutral from tuesday’s negative divergence. Tomorrow, the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30.
The market gapped down at the open, apparently disappointed the ECB did not start LTRO 3 and only cut rates. The pullback, from tuesday’s SPX 1375 high, was only 12 points to 1363. Then, possibly encouraged by today’s rally in Apple, the market worked its way higher from ten o’clock to two o’clock and essentially closed the gap before pulling back in the last two hours of trading.
Normally, when a negative divergence takes hold the market usually gets oversold before attempting to make higher highs again. Thus far the pullback has only been to neutral. The pullback that started at SPX 1375 may not be over. Should it resume tomorrow/monday the SPX could pullback to the lower range of the 1363 pivot (1356), or even the next support area at 1342/47. Then the uptrend should resume. Short term support is at the 1363 pivot and SPX 1342/47, with resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. The short term OEW charts remain positive, with the swing point around SPX 1350. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
I took em off at 1350. C ya all next week. I will be less part time then. Kinda weak today…… hmmm
cheers HD, Lee enjoying the 109 degree day
109*? ouch about 10* more than us today. Stay thirsty my friends.
Certainly not good for the crops around here.But storms expected by sunday/monday
Thanks RC
Hey C B
I’m down in Caldaro country!
I’m watching the same #s as u guys but I never trade in a speedo as a rule
haa..Hey Lee, yeah same #s except better eyes and hands to execute…Say hello from all of us to Tony if you happen to see him in person and your folks as well Lee..Hope you’ll practice ur guitar a little bit for us…can’t wait for that Lee..enjoy the heat and the bugs!!
)
Nice call RC. on those +Ds.
Have a great weekend all!
Tony, if the Dow trade 12646, do you put the int B top and call this int c of Major 2?
That’s the alternate count.While the DOW dipped a bit further than expect, the SPX did fine.
+ Div on 10 min, 30 min and 60 min
Thanks for the heads up rc
Cheers
Tony
That was a long A. SPX had a green hour so corrective wave B is underway.
looks like the TRIN just broke down. rally time?
We have seen 28 consecutive months of private sector job growth. I think that will start to sink in. People forget that when GW was in we were losing 1,000,000 jobs a month. Election rally will be the 3 of 3 up. USA! JMnSHO
I’d like to call it the Mayan Rally if it’s OK with you guys….seems like we did so much selling in the 1st half of the yr, so they (banksters) can combat the inevitable panic in the 2nd half with a ton of money again.sort of like during 1999.2000…
j/k http://screencast.com/t/mZHTM0JqChn9
hey HD, can you define “too much vacation” for those of us slaving around too much ..so at least we can visualize the good life
Lee, where are you..since you’ve put on ur Speedo ur in such high demand you won’t even talk to the peasants here ?
what numbers are you guys watching today?
Mayan rally- that’s pretty funny CB! G1. “too much vacation” means I $pent too much! haa
nice HD. Ur doing something right ,then!
Love when an elliott wave true pattern actually does play out….
ABC-A ABC B ABC C- or ABC x ABC double zig zag to 1375
5 waves down from there would be a normal E wave pattern going back to 1422 highs
Time will tell
best all
we’ll know soon enough. either we’ll get a bounce and roll off the 1340′s, or we’ll take out the 1334 level one more time, probably next week. i’m buying right now so i’m naturally hoping for the former! cheers
Good morning all. HWB, ES off 30+ TYBJ! Go time.
thanks Hd. Dont thank BJ ..success is ur own damn fault
…like that one guy who wears those funny shirts says…Larry sth..forgot his name
haha, I’d rather buy em here than at 75. That’s all I’m sayn.
Oh gee, I am still trailing my short …I guess I am not quite with the program…will catch up later I guess..I am dreaming abt. 1343 1333…
That’s great CB! Congrats. No bounces all day so you’re doing it right. I am loco from too much vacation.
actually I just read Tony’s summary yesterday and did what it said..so thanks Tony
BTW 1372 PIVOT and R2D2 called this recent high. No humans needed.
Speaking of R2D2 … think he morphed into R2D3.Should be done right about now.
Thanks Tony !
and where is R2D2 calling the intermediate low? or is it too hot for R2D2 now. circuits fried.
Fade the POTUS @ ur own risk.
*Past performance does not ensure future performance
99%™ of the time.
This just in ! It’s hot today
welcome to the heartland
haha..Lee ur funny 100% of the time….rain of shine
)
It’s unreal today !
Speedo weather
101 already
my thermoemether always says “dry heat “-so whyeven look at it.
wow, talk about alt. spelling for thermometer
..see guys I told you it was dry heat.. lots of it..
Obama calling the bottom here…?
needs to say something positive
“we added 4mm jobs since 2007″ hah
campaign speech
See you tomorrow…sorry..on monday… nothing to do today.
You all have a good day
GL
IT LOOKS LIKE MY STOP WAS TOO TIGHT YESTERDAY (DJI HIT 12961.30, MY STOP WAS AT 12950)….
WELL, THIS IS WHAT I WAS EXPECTING…
SORRY, I GIVE UP…I AM NOT SHORTING THE MARKET FOR THE MOMENT. (Even when I had more than 1000 dow points of gains the weeks before, the 260 dow point loss for the past three weeks is enough)
GL
6:28 AM Yields on Spain’s 10-year bonds jump 21 bps to 6.99% as the triple-play central bank easing yesterday leaves markets wanting more. The surge, in addition to a 1.4% fall in the IBEX 35, comes as data shows that Spanish industrial output fell 6.1% in May, which was better than consensus of 8.5%. [
Too much overlap on the way up from 1267-1363, back to 1309, then 1375 areas… still looks like ABC corrective rally to me. Never saw 5 waves from 1267-1363… not forcing a count
My latest on July 4th during market close was for a sharp correction near term, then we will see I guess. Not in the “wave 3 up” camp at all… maybe I’ll be fooled again…
http://www.themarkettrendforecast.com/forecasts/market-giving-major-correction-signs/
Best all
+1 David. Looks like you are correct. Good luck!
I’m looking at a bunch of stuff looking like a short today – coffee and crude being my favorites, and equities also looking heavy. Of course, lately I’ve been about as right as a 180 degree angle … I speak only because I have no one else here to talk to at the moment …
good luck!
Well, I really got that one wrong. I still see a move higher to at least 1393, but this corrective could have further to go on the downside. Support is at 1367, 1356-1359, and 1323-1326. Resistance is at 1374, 1382, and 1393.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/07/thursdays-market-07052012.html
current roadmao for friday/weekend:
http://standardpoor.wordpress.com
meant to type”current roadmap”, sorry for sloppiness.
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY-I last traded price: 5313.7. Current Hourly Trend: Up, Dynamic Trend SL: 5294.3. You may follow us on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs . Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
from prior blog comments:
“standard_and_poor | June 20, 2012 at 4:15 pm | Reply | Edit
returned to long pcx short term trade at 1.53.”
stopped out of $PCX short term long trade today at 2.31 for a 50.98% profit. now waiting for long term buy signal on pcx, not very certain if i get such signal but if i do the profit potential should be huge with minimal risk..
Sorry Tony
I appear to be unable to read what the indicators mean and hear what the chart is saying on the 5 minute timescale. lol
I think I figured it out: if the macd histogram goes from positive to negative, the end of a subwave 1, 3 or 5 subwave has occurred and if the histogram goes from negative to positive, the end of a corrective subwave 2 or 4 has occured.
Seems like the wave 2 and 4 corrections happen when the 20 ma moves under the 50 ma. The 20 ma is under the 50 ma and it appears that the 5 min spx is in a bear market now, near the end point of the a of an abc corrective pattern.
thanks Rob
Thanks tony
I’m amazed by the low humidy here in ur neck of the woods today. I’m checking the ponds for fish kills as I type. I’ve never seen it this dry …104 f last.
It’s like a desert
hi guy, ..desert is good – cuz it has absolutely positively no mosquitoes
Tony, with regard to gold, when does it have it’s seasonal botttom, normally (if “normally” still exists in these markets)?
mosquitos are presentseasonally July is a good month
oops, hi guys, that is
)
thanks Tony
thanks Tony!
investors still bearish,..really? “Despite the June rally, considerable skepticism remains in the market. This skepticism could be a bullish sign for contrarian investors. For the week ending July 4, the popular American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey showed that only 32.6 percent of investors were bullish, while 33.3 percent were bearish. The other respondents said that they were neutral on the future direction of the market. The long-term average is 39 percent bullish respondents. Frequently, following a rally, bearish sentiment suggests that the market could continue to go higher as additional investors become bullish.” – Benzinga/S. Rubin
anyone know when the weekly data comes out ?- a bit surprised they already have the closing number for this curent week..(?)
CB, Monthly data more important
when is the next time it’s coming out, Tony? Thanks!
Any day now
oh, I see Tony. The home-grown indicator. Those are the best =) thanks!
Good anaylsis Tony, thanks…..
Yet, today was a reversal candle near the upper end of a trend channel. Should head down to make a B wave now.