SHORT TERM: US markets closed, YM (DOW) -4
Overnight the Asian markets were higher +0.2%. European markets opened lower and closed -0.2%. US index futures finished the holiday session with ES (SPX) flat, and NQ (NDX) -0.50 in quiet trading. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude slide 80 cents, Gold dipped $1, and the USD was higher. Tomorrow, the ECB meets in their regularly scheduled GCM. Around 8:30 the ADP index and weekly Jobless claims will be reported. Then at 10:00 ISM services. Friday we have the monthly Payrolls report. Best to your holiday!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Must break levels for DOW SPX NASDAQ NDX
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/07/05/elliott-wave-noon-update-video-7-5-12-must-break-levels-for-the-indices/
Another try. I just shorted the market once again.
GL
stop at 12950 (dow)
the bots found you!
I wrote a July 4th market correction warning article yesterday with chart
http://www.themarkettrendforecast.com/forecasts/market-giving-major-correction-signs/
Cheers all
Like I said ……..
Thanks R C ! U golfed in this weather ? Ur a freaking stud !
Hey Tony ur gonna have to elaborate on “How it could of been a lot worse ”
I’m going mobile….see yas at the Cracker Barrels
member everything was higher in Globex so u had a chance *
morning all!
Have a good trip Lee! See you at 1343, or preferably ar 1333 today
…well, unless i get stopped out earlier again.
They have a Cracker Barrel around here?Elaborate?Think the worse thing that could have happened: a magnetic pole shift.Earthquakes, solar flares and high temperatures are much more desirable.
solar flares? ….Tony what’s up with that
…do you know that the sign of Cancer is the most fearful sun sign?…maybe that’s why so many Cancer folks work for banks…a mass of fear but therefore good with money…fear not Tony 
Emotional yes. Fear? had not heard that one.Besides Solar maximum we are also transiting the center of the Galaxy.You probably know what happens when the Solar system is in opposition to the Black hole.
yes, water sign, that’s emotions. Also, the Mother of the zodiac – takes care of people, so u guys are some of the most nurturing folks out there. From what I understand worrying is a highly developed skill for Cancers…so maybe we should call it ‘ being concerned’, rather ‘than being fearful’- agree with you there Tony..not a good idea to generalize, though, cause everyone has many different influences…Cancers are said to be the most complex sun sign of all…
“Solar system is in opposition to the Black hole. ” – sounds like we’re gna be on a trip we didn’t sign up for, Tony..
Cancers are said to be the most complex sun sign of allCan vouch for that!Sounds like we’re gna be on a trip we didn’t sign up forEveryone here signed up for it =)Don’t worry, the solar system has been in opposition for more than 70 years now.Seventy to go.
lol..Tony I wasn’t worried , but you got me fooled w/the black hole..which I thought was kinda sinister..and now you tell me not to worry…gee you are complex…..and I am ignorant about black holes..and I would’ve never guessed ur a cancer though…you don’t have any of the passive-aggressive stuff going on Tony
is this market putting on a show (mostly with APPL) with the Naz being up and copper and semis lagging?..
An apple a day keeps the bears away
Lee – very fine line between stud and idiot. debatable which side of the line i’m on…
Tony, if we get a minor pullback starting here, what would be your reasonable/prelim target? think we could retrace back to the 1343 pivot, or not likely that much? thanks!
RC about 12,750 DOW
cool. gracias amigo!
Morning Senor Caldaro. Hope you had a good holiday!
man, not sure what you’ve been getting down there but it was an easy 104 around Chi-town yesterday. felt like i was golfing in the Dominican Republic.
on to biz… some interesting activity in sovereign bonds this morning. Spain auctioned 3bn EUR in several maturities today, including 10-yrs. They printed the 10s at 6.43%, and the yields widened out to about 6.56% at one point this morning. But around 6.30 central they began a pretty rapid tightening and are now back to 6.41%. I’m not sure yet what drove the rally.
Ireland tapped the bond market, first time since Sept 2010. They sold 500mm EUR of 3 month bills at 1.8%. Not an awesome rate for 3mo paper, given that a BBB US corporate can issue 3mo CP at about 15-20bp. But hey, it’s Ireland – at least they found some buyers!
The IG CDX index is actually a little wider this morning, about +1 1/8bp or so. Domestic bank/fin paper is probably about 1-3bp tighter from 7/3. As expected, very little trading going on. A July 4th on a wednesday pretty much kills the entire week from a volume perspective, at least in the old school, “stretch every holiday into 3 days off” bond market.
On another note, I am seeing a number of disgruntled bearish dealers out there right now. A lot of comments like, “why are people buying risk here???”, “nothing has changed!”, etc…. which usually tells me we’ll rally until they shut up, because that means they finally capitulated. We’re not nearly there yet. Cheers!
thanks RC,Temps here have been running from 100 to 107 for about a week.Cardinals started thier game last night at 103, highest since 1988.Looks like all the rates cuts today were factored in.Technicals overbought.Should we get a decent pullback the bears will start growling again.Then we should go higher.
sounds good to me. i was only able to put on a partial position before we got this huge up move. would be happy to get another chance a little lower! thanks
“global warming does not exist…”
hah
It’s 2012.The transition into the New Age comes with some discomforts.We are quite lucky, it could have been significantly worse.
Thanks rc
Cheers
Happy fourth tony. Thanks for your work. If you look at a monthly chart of practically any commodity it looks like a big fifth wave is coming.
thanks Hooloo
Tony
SPX 5 min bull market has a possible bearish divergence in the macd if the spx reachs a higher high.
Macd histogram says the flat trading that ended on Friday at 1 pm was probably the wave 2 correction(it just dipped the 20 ma a little) and the drop after the ism numbers came out was probably the wave 4 correction. The old 5 min bull market topped out when going higher would have been statistically significant on the rising 200 ma. If the current one goes higher it will too.
Given all that: I’d have to guess: a new 5 minute bear market will start Thursday morning.
German 10yr Bunds in a short uptrend correction? Broke previous week high 10.30 CDT. My thinking is Bunds price to go down (like Tonys 10yr UST). Interesting times ahead. Im preparing my self for a once-in-a-life time short of Bunds.
thanks Magnus
I’m of the mind TLT still has a bit of life left…..
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=TLT,PLAADANRBO%5BPA%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G
…..kind of like a slasher movie…just when you think…..
I am not positioned this way at the moment, but am mindful of Hugh Hendry’s points.
Thanks Tony.
thx Fiona
Fiona, I don’t think there will be a sudden capitulation especially not since Operation Twist were extended to year end.
Thanks Tony !
I killed em today
BTW fill the pickup bed up I’m headed down ur way tomorrow.
I really need to cool off so what better place than Southern Illinois ?
cool off? in the pool =)