SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +72
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and the market opened a point lower than yesterday’s SPX 1366 close. In the first few minutes the market dipped to SPX 1364, and then began to rally. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported higher: +0.7% vs -0.6%. Monthly Auto sales were also higher: F +7% and GM +16%. The rally continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1375, clearing the 1363 pivot and entering the 1372 pivot range. A pullback followed to SPX 1370 by 12:30. Then the market rallied into a SPX 1374 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude surged $3.80, Gold rallied $24, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX jumps to the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence. The market closed early today ahead of tomorrow’s Independence day holiday. Cash markets will open again on thursday.
The market opened flat today, rallied to new uptrend highs at SPX 1375 and just about closed there. The day ended with negative divergences across all timeframes including daily. However, with the cash market closed tomorrow and foreign markets open, these divergences may not mean much yet. On thursday the ECB meets, and will likely conclude before Wall Street opens. July 5th should be an interesting day.
On the world stock market scene, 85% of the world’s markets are now in confirmed uptrends. Looks like more upside is ahead in the weeks, months to come. Short term support is now at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1402/03. The short term OEW charts remain positive from under SPX 1330, with the swing point now at 1344. Best to your holiday!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
EURUSD Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/eurusd-time-ratio-1618.html
NAS Reversal…Fibo 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/nas-reversalfibo-618.html
Im still seeing 1375/77 and or 1386 as a possible C wave high area.
The issue I’m having is the SP 500 has NO CLEAR 5 wave move up from 1267 lows. It is a clear 3 wave move to 1363. I’m reading still a possible ABC-X ABC or ABC-A, ABC B, and now ABC -C to complete a complicated zig zag correction.
1386 is a 78% fib
Mclellan oscilattors are now at the highest point in the past 12 months and higher than the October rally highs (1292) and any other rally highs in the past few years.
So I guess I dont see how Tony calls 1267-1363 wave 1, which is not a 5 wave impulsive pattern when just a few days back he said it was 3 waves…
But… its just something I’m watching and I guess I’m in the “show me the money” stage still…
Best to all
Agree, the first rally was not a clear five.But it certainly looks impulsive now, worldwide.
Well, we should know soon enough if this is c of B or something else … probably no later thna Monday’s close and likely sooner …
Thought for today:
As a speculator you must embrace disorder and chaos.- Louis Bacon
SP500 Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/07/sp500-time-ratio-1618.html
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY-I last traded price: 5313.95. Current Hourly Trend: Neutral, Trend Up Above: 5333.7, Trend Down Below: 5271.5. You may follow us on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs. Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
The action today indicates we still have a ways to go to the upside before we see a meaningful correction. We might make a short stop at 1378, but I think we make it to 1391.
Happy 4th to Everyone!
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/07/tuesdays-market.html
HAPPY 4th !!
Thanks Tony,
My stop was hit today. One more loss. In sum, I have 240 dow points loss in the last three weeks. Fortunately, I had some large profits the previous weeks. Nevertheless, I am concerned about these losses.
COUNTS: I still see the same.
Bearish …….. http://scharts.co/LCY6AG
Bullish ……… http://scharts.co/MXruw7
GL
Tony, daily NYMO at 101.32 now.Hilarious how much the market Gods can squeeze out.Analogous of someone driving 100 kms on a flat tire.Blow it up till it bursts. Market looks to be in the hands of penny stock operators
we know few of those
Hello Tony,
Help me understand the current rally from an EW perspective. Assuming your labelling is correct on the 60-min SPX chart, minor 1 completed at 1363, minor 2 completed at 1309 and we are currently in minor 3. I am further assuming that minor 3 is subdividing and that minute 1 completed at 1334, minute 2 completed at 1313 and we are now in minute 3. If my assumption is correct, minute 3 is already a 238.2% extension of minute 1 — this does not seem reasonable so please correct me.
Actually I do not see a subdivision in Minor 3 yet.That complex mess at 1309/10 and 13 was probably the Minor 2 low.The DOW made its low at the last retest.
If true, the next pullback would be minute 2 of minor 3 … correct?
yes, agree
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Thanks, Tony — have a good holiday.
Tony
Sorry if I confused you about gold and silver. Not confirmed uptrends, but more like a good bottom call and new uptrend is starting call.
Both had up days and the bulls now control the momo on the daily macd. The daily and hourly trading channels slope up. But I’ve never seen anything like that formation before and I don’t know if that’s reliable.
Can’t be a descending triangle formation. It would have hit the top, then the bottom and top support/resistance lines 2 times and then dropped out the bottom. They haven’t done that.
An enigma wrapped up in a mystery to me, but every thing is hinting at uptrend resuming.
Rob, Gold’s advance looks choppy, but it’s uptrending
Also…
I’m feeling some deja vu from October. It looks like the bulls are starting to take over here. Wouldn’t be surprised if there is a slight selloff on the jobs number, and then a continuation of this run into new highs. There needs to some sort of blow off top into the end of the bull market. Entering this last correction did not seem like a blow off top to me. Just looking at past patterns.
Thanks to everybody for their input. I’m going to start putting in some long positions into SLV in the next couple of weeks. Tight stops between 25-26. I feel the risk reward here is much better than GLD.
TOT also looks really nice here. I’m going to buy into the next pullback there. 1/4 of my overall position. No stops. Will buy as it goes down. Yield is great.
I’ve stayed strong with my ECA position. It’s been quite the roller coaster, but it’s got some strong support in the 19s. Very nice yield.
Going to watch the markets and get into HDGE when the bullish tone reaches a crescendo in the next few months. This etf is, in my opinion, a safer way to short. It makes decent money when the market goes down, and it gives you the opportunity to get out in time before the bulls start charging. The fees are high, but it’s made me some good dough the last couple of months. Would have made me more if I didn’t chicken out too early.
Finally, Happy 4th of July!
Thanks Tony,
Does anybody have some statistics relating the olympics to the stock market. I read this article from a couple years back…
http://www.investmentexecutive.com/-/news-52373
not I
Tony, you wrote this last Friday – “The market gapped up at the open today and never looked back. Quite impressive, and kudos to those that were expecting it. The rally, which may have been started by the strength in the EURO, flowed into most asset classes one would expect to see move in a “risk on” scenario. There may be some more important European developments, in the works, than what was announced last night.”
May be we will know if any more important European developments are in the works on Jul 5th.
would think so Trader, happy 4th!
Happy 4th to you and everyone else too.
Happy 4th.
I believe we are in a correction
Thanks Tony! HAPPY 4th of July all!!
With the anticipated move by the ECB on Thursday to lower rates by 25 basis pts. (or more) and a similar move by the BOJ (same day) gold and silver may extend the current rallies. Stocks may benefit also, although all eyes will be on the June Employment Rpt. out on Friday. Light volume…big moves?
possibly … happy 4th!