SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +32
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe open higher but closed down 0.1% as well. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: 135.80 vs 134.08. The market opened higher at SPX 1317 and hit 1320 by 10:00. The market had closed at SPX 1315 yesterday. Also at 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported lower: 62.0 vs 64.9. A pullback followed to SPX 1310, a point above yesterday’s low, by 11:00 and another rally attempt followed. By 2:30 the SPX had risen to 1324, then it pulled back to end the day at SPX 1320.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold slid $11, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum rose from yesterday’s positive divergence to nearly overbought today. Last night the FED reported New home prices declined: $273.9K vs $283.9K. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30, then Pending home sales at 10:00.
The market opened higher today, then nearly retested yesterday’s low before rallying into the mid-1320′s. During the advance the market neared slightly overbought. This fits quite well with the 1-2-3 count to SPX 1309 we noted yesterday. Today’s rally would be wave 4. The largest rally after the recent SPX 1363 high was on FOMC day, (16 points). We counted that as wave 2. This recent rally has been 15 points thus far, (1309-1324), the second largest. We’re counting this as wave 4. When it concludes the market could experience a sharp decline into the downtrend low. Should this pattern continue the entire correction, from May, could end in a large 3-3-5 flat.
Short term support is at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1324/27 and 1334/38. The short term OEW charts remain with a negative bias, and the swing point is now around SPX 1329. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely resuming
LONG TERM: bull market
1329.50ish is where we’d get daily support at 50 rsi (14)y..kinda of a big deal on a closing basis
thanks HD.
60 min chart says: Bullish top div. vs. 1337 http://screencast.com/t/quwwDXc8781i
so me believes, perhaps unreasonably so, that we will test at least that level
On the SPX, the daily macd is still bullish. The hourly macd turned bullish yesterday. And the spx is back above a flattening out 200 hour ma and is soon due to hit some resistance at a falling 50 hour ma. Looking at the hourly macd The rally from 1266 to 1363 stayed above zero all the way implying it was all one wave of wave 1.
On the 5 minute chart I see a bullish wave 1 that started from Mondays low and ended Tuesday morning. Then a corrective wave 2 down that ended around noon yesterday. Since then I see an impulsive wave 3 doing the 2 steps up one step down dance. That consistently finds support on the rising 20 or 50 ma’s.
Based on all of the above I can only conclude wave 3 up has started and wave 2 correction ended at 1309.
Thanks Rob, wouldn’t be this first time I was wrong
1344 looks like a magnet .. .50 1422-1267
and .618 1307-1363-1309 …maybe too obvious, though
nice pooch Lee…gosh, it must be hot where he is..
Hey C B
I’m guessing it’s in a fly over state
thx
LOL! Hey Lee , I think he’s saying: I am too sexy for this…locale
Tony,I am trying to imagine scenarios of above 1520 by this year end.Before I thought it could not happen with my initial count but I have an alternate count.Up now for 1420 high,then down for 100 points to 1320 and then up for 200 points to finish the year at 1520′s.The reasoning behind my count is that I am convinced we would have a 100 point fall at some point before 1520′s but am also convinced that anything above 1520 for this year would be euphoria.Does this count fit with your count?
Your count would fit into a potential diagonal triangle ending to this bull market.Which, considering the state of the rest of the world, is not that far fetched.
EURUSD Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/06/eurusd-time-ratio-1618_27.html
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY-I last traded price: 5152.15.Current Hourly Trend: Neutral, Trend Up Above: 5202, Trend Down Below: 5094.5. You may follow us on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs . Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
For the moment I’ll stay on the bullish side. If the market can move above 1329, wave 5 from 1309 should end above 1340. If the market drops below 1310, I have a similar scenario to Tony’s, calling for waves 3, 4, and 5 down to complete the sequence from 1363, possibly at 1297, or 1290.
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/06/tuesdays-market-062612.html
Thanks for sharing Steve. Good stuff.
Thanks Steve
1340 looks a bit conservative to me – 1329 has already been broken as i write – i believe with the Obamacare stimulas of 1 trillion we go back and test 1360 as early as tomorrow.
If Europe doesn’t fall apart over the weekend – we could challenge 1400 next week – otherwise we back and fill towards 1310 again.
I have been a bear for years and a bull in gold – something is fundamentally changing in the western world though – the entitlement societies are collapsing.
Here in the USA we are actually changing at the ground level with barly a notice – the bottom of the market at 1267 was reversed by votes in WI – SD and SJ – the maintstream media ignored the results as a market mover.
I remember CNBC pundits couldn’t figure out why the market was up 250 points that day – it has hillarious.
Our exeperiment with socialism over the last 50 years is ending with Obama – not beginning – how many SPX points is that worth ?
.
Karl, Can you elaborate.What exactly is changing in your view?
Tony
As we all know – you can’t spend what you don’t have – eventually it runs you under.
We are seeing in slow motion what happens to a society that decides to stick their head in the sand – the better part of Europe.
They are being forced to change – and they will change – because there’s not enough money to continue – period – we all know that. Of couse the ECB could print – but that’s just a default in a different colored dress.
Here in the USA we all know we have basically the same problem – we have two choices – wait until the markets tell us to stop – or stop on our own.
What we see in WI – SD – SJ even IL and NY is a fundamental change to face up to our REAL problem ( even some dems ) – Debt and the creation of Debt through the entiltment society..
When Obama got elected many conservatives thought this was the beginning of socialism in the USA – but the truth is – we have been sliding in that direction for 50 years – the only thing Obama did was start running in that direction..
i believe that our society is waking up to the fact that this is a failed model ( kind of easy when you see our furture in Europe on a day to day basis imploding )
I believe the people will force our so called leaders ( sooner – rather than later ) to come back to reality – I believe that is starting to happening now in isolated cases.
We will have to deal with some serious deleveraging ( I think your 2013 high could be the realization of that finally playing out ) – but we are about to come out of this decade plus bear market.
Once we really clean out our system – and get back to a free market – the furture will be bright once again.
We all know – it’s always the darkest before the light – and I think we’re right about there.
Time will tell.
.
thanks Karl, The last phase of a secular cycle is the purging.In 1979 Volcker slammed the breaks on inflation by pushing short term rates above the inflation rate forcing a recession.This created a purging of the system and a reset. Reaganomics took care of the rest. In the mid 1940′s most of the world was already in a recession due to war.Then the US loaned the world USDs for reconstruction, and currencies were realigned.The system was purged, and later much of that debt was just written off. This time around all nearly countries are loaded with debt.The easiest way to handle debt is to simply devalue the currency.One can do this through inflation, default or devaluation.A purge will likely come when all currencies are realigned again.Historically, Bonds are the worse investments when interest rates are rising.It is no different this time around. The socialism you mentioned started with FDR.LBJ kicked them into high gear.Personally I do not think much will change in the near future.The government gained control of the Nation with programs like Social Security, Medicare and the like.It is not likely to keep this control if these social programs are wound down.
Is this part of the “entitlement society”? http://costofwar.com/en/
Karl,
1340 would complete 5 waves from the recent 1309 low, and wave 3 from 1307. Wave 5 from 1307 would then still project to 1393, completing wave 3 from 1267.
Thanks,
Steve
True dat Antonio
Could the reset be a World Currency ?
We already have a world currency … the USD.And, the US is not likely going to give that up to some World Bank, IMF or the BIS.
Thanks Tony
U S A
Lee, After a 25 year decline maybe the US Peso is going to be worth something afterall.At least for a short period.
Tony
No puedo esperar !
I agree 100% Tony – our Govt will not want to give up control of the people via reducing entiltlments.
That’s my point though – i believe they don’t have a choice.
Either we the people will force them – or the markets will – but it will happen – it’s just a matter of how and when.
Much better for all if they the follow the people – and the people are ready – ie WI – SD – SJ..
thanks Tony.
SPX daily A/D line, for your viewing pleasure http://screencast.com/t/Gm4ktojZwmH
Thanks CB.
Steve
thanks CB
Hi Tony, by the way is your WROC still reading BULLISH ? Thanks
Hi Doris, It is a signal that is triggered.It does not switch on and off.
……tired of Europe, Obamacare et al……maybe need another mind bender (and cash)
http://www.hermes2012.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=121&Itemid=173
Thanks Tony.
Cold water is stable, emitting little vapor and settled as a liquid.Hot water is not. It is transitioning between two states, liquid and gas.Much easier to control by an outside force. thanks Fiona
Go for the cash Tony………sterling is still good.
nice Tony! what this guy does for fun in Antarctica kind of illustrates what you’ve just explained to us
) well, there’s not a whole lot to do there, so yup time for some boiling water clouds C:\Documents and Settings\Owner\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\Content.IE5\QKHDU3FW\ux5Uj – Imgur[1].gif
C:\Documents and Settings\Owner\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\Content.IE5\QKHDU3FW\ux5Uj – Imgur[1].gif
http://imgur.com/ux5Uj OK – it should work now …sorry!!
I assume you are exposing both to the same temperature at which water would freeze ??
If that is the case heat capacity would be your answer. The vapor/quasi vapor phase of hot water cools much faster and does not have the same heat capacity. Water has some pretty neat qualities (see super heated steam) that are probably due to it’s crystal like structure.
Patrick
Tony, any thoughts on the Thursday Obamacare decision and how it may affect markets? or will the decision likley have a net zero affect? Cheers
It only matters if the markets react to the decision.
NAS Time Ratio 138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/06/nas-time-ratio-1382.html
Tony, I’ve been reviewing the charts after the close. It looks like the dow finished something today at 12452. So a correction may be underway. We may be headed to 12650-12700.
It looks like I am trapped.
Mario, That’s possible, but it will probably head lower again anyway
Yes, I expect so too …but you know the market likes surprises…hope we can get a wave b down tomorrow before we get the strong wave c up…so I may reduce the loses.
By the way, 12035 and 12899 may be more important than we think.
I am long TWM (short R2K) – Looking at the Dow, today’s rally looks to be a simple retest of the price levels arouind the 6/21 lows (12560ish). The high volume sell imbalance at those levels into the close would lead me to expect that the next move is a resumption in stair step fashion of the current decline. Lots of folks bought the phantom “inverse head and shoulders” pre-fed and are trapped longs. Lots of supply up there but lack of demand …
CADUSD Time Ratio 138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/06/cadusd-time-ratio-1382_26.html
I have been warning people about a possible 3-3-5 for a while (esp. since the break of 1340 the day after the FED announcement), but since I had us complete 5 waves down at 1267 as W1, I believe a double ZZ (with this being part of an X wave or a complete X wave) is also very likely.
A double bottom (3-3-5) is also welcome, but that would imply more bearishness. How would you be able to maintain your long term bullish outlook in that case?
Lets see. For now, we just fell back into the old trading range. Need to watch 1307 to 1325 for a break.
http://tacticalstrategist.com/2012/06/26/update-2012-06-26-back-in-the-trading-range/
The US stock market looks okay.Watch the semi’s.
Interesting you should mention that. I have analyzed SOX last weekend and it appears to have made a cycle low, but it also looks like a giant H&S top.
http://tacticalstrategist.com/2012/06/24/tactical-view-roaring-bears-2012-06-24/
Let me know what you think.
We think the cycle low is right around the corner
Thanks Tony!
ASTRO Sp500 Next Lower Low…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/06/astro-next-lower-low.html
Thanks Tony….
ES needs to clear above 1336 to change the picture – all else is noise Still looking for ES 1225 at a minimum
SPX will clear 1336 by Thurs. – trillion dollar stimulus due to the killing of Obamacare.
thanks Karl!
SCOTUS are buying dips ?
Obama Care means nothing – that a bs story. We are in a recession AGAIN – just most dont realize it yet.
We need buyers at lows to make new lows -
Karl – how do you figure that?
Killing Obamacare now will be immensely disruptive to the operations of all the major HMOs and health care insurers. Shorter term, that doesn’t sound like a positive to me.
Thanks Tony, I still have my DXD position. However, I had to adjust the count.
http://scharts.co/LCY6AG
Thanks Tony !