SHORT TERM: market sells off post FOMC, DOW -251
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were slightly lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported slightly higher: 387K vs 386K. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s SPX 1356 close, and nudged up to 1358 in the first few minutes. Then it started to pullback. At 10:00 Existing home sales were reported lower: 4.55 mln vs 4.62 mln, Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.3% vs -0.1%, FHFA housing prices were reported lower: +0.8% vs +1.8%, and the Philly FED dropped lower: -16.6 vs -5.8. The market continued to pullback, with only 3 – 4 point bounces along the way. At 11:30 the SPX broke through the 1342/47 support zone. At 1:30 the market broke through the SPX 1335/36 support zone. Then it traded down to SPX 1324 just before the close, and ended the day at 1326. Quite a nonstop decline.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -2.3%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.2%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude lost $3.00, Gold dropped $40.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely oversold.
The market opened slightly higher today then started to pullback. When the negative economic reports were released at 10:00 the pullback continued unabated throughout the day. We noted two days ago we had counted three waves up from SPX 1267 to 1363 heading into the FED FOMC statement. We had been expecting five waves. After the statement was released the market became quite volatile, as expected, pulled back to SPX 1346 and ended the day at 1356. We expected the pullback to continue into today, and suggested the key levels to watch were SPX 1336 and 1329. After the market broke through those levels this afternoon, the recent rally looked more like a completed three wave advance, suggesting the downtrend may still be underway.
Short term support is now at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1327/29, 1335/36 and 1342/47. Short term momentum is extremely oversold, and the market is due for at least a small rally. The OEW short term charts swung negative today when the market declined below SPX 1338. The swung point is now at SPX 1339. Rough day in most of the markets except for the USD. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may be resuming
LONG TERM: bull market
15′ for the bell. Nothing. No trades today/this week. =(.
But it looks there may be something on monday.
GL
ES 1330. Good enough today. Cya’s MAAG™
Tony said: “We are not likely to see any type of precious metal standard for decades and decades, if ever again.”
and thank god for that. That might, just might leave some sort of metal available as a hedge against paper when such hedges are needed. Otherwise, the hedge get removed from the reach of most of us.
remember, there is a time to hoard money and there is a time to put money to work and that is regardless of what we use as money — gold is no exception, there is a time that it should come and put to work, just don’t think that time is now
take your poison:
1. hard money strictly applied and stagnation and misery and hardship — a total live-within-your-means kind of life and knowing how negative the means of the most are …….
or
2: boom-bust fiat bonanza and the illusion of growth and prosperity with periodic hiccups and throw-ups
IMHO, “1″ can never last for long without we, collectively, corrupt it one way or another — it is just not compliant with the aggregate nature and inclinations of Men — but that is only my opinion
The 1327 pivot I had is holding, this is good for Bulls so far…. we will see what Monday brings. We closed our BGZ on Thursday around 1330 on the SP 500 for 6% gains at ATP
Dave’s done it again. For some reason this momentum-chaser thinks he knows about biotech investing. 24hrs ago he threw his poor Partners into GALE – a stock that he was pump’in&dump’in across the internet through his many online disguises. Anyway, before he could get out, the stock crashed 15%. He had a huge position. Bad as this is, it’s nothing compared with his FULL Core trade in Stellar Biotech (KLH cn). He put his Partners in at 1.29C$ in Jan 2011. It now trades at 0.26. A loss of 80%. At no time over this period was he able to exit his Partners. Worse still, he kept on buying every few months. This guy will seriuosly harm your wealth..
David, Understand your concern, and good intentions.But this is not the place for this sort of thing.We all make mistakes.Penny stocks are riskier than options. Buyer always beware.
The move back above this morning’s 1333.72 high confirms 1327.21 as the termination point of a 5 wave sequence from 1363, and possibly wave 4 from 1306. There is still a possibility of another sequence down, with support at 1326-1323, and then 1315-1313.
Steve
Thanks Steve. Not so sure abt your count. However, I can’t find five waves from 1307 – 1363 either.
GL
waiting patiently for this one – to go public –
http://www.in-n-out.com/
Bud, Heard we just had our first IPO today after the FB fiasco over a month ago.
True Tony – Just hope one day I can get a toe-in – when, if Inn-N-Out goes
public,,,,,,RC know’s what I mean….
Hey all, left paradise, ocean breezes, 68* to return to this flat line and 109*. YUK! Bears had all day to crack 1324- they will have to cover IMO MAAG™ Hope everyone is good
welcome back!
How are we looking today Tony?
Uptrend to resume?
not much of a bounce
Would you suppose a lower low but to hold the 1313 or 1303 pivots or are you thinking lower?
Thank you
If 1303 does not hold the potential uptrend is in trouble.
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Tony, I thought if 1329 didn’t hold then uptrend was in trouble. Is it 1303. Think, not a market that can be traded with any conviction.
Trader,Choppy difficult market.1329 was important, and the uptrend is in trouble.1303 would probably kill it completely.There is, however, a potential for an ABC uptrend.Talk about a tough market.
Good to see you back HD & thanks for the numbers! Lee said he missed you b4 he left on his trip.
1. Jackson paid of the debt taking advantage of a real estate bubble — contrast that to what happen after the recent US real estate bubble
2. US stayed deft-free for about a year after that
and as a perhaps loosely related point
3. debt is the very essence of fiat. without debt, fiat dies
Wasn’t the US on a Silver standard then?
I am not sure, but I think it was not just fiat
wasn’t there a depression soon after the US debt was cleaned by Jackson?
The Depression of 1837-1844 In June of 1836 Congress passed the Distribution Act which called for the distribution of the accumulated treasury surplus be distributed to the states on January 1 of 1837. The surplus was to be transferred to state banks which were to make payment to the State governments in specie (gold and silver).After Congress adjourned President Andrew Jackson issued his Specie Circular that required that after August 15, 1836 that only specie would be accepted in payment for government land sales. Jackson’s purpose in issuing the Specie Circular was to curb speculation in land. The effect was to reduce the money supply by depreciating the value of banknotes which constituted a major part of the money supply. The Specie Circular did not make the bank notes valueless, it simply made their value relative to specie substantially less than it had been before. This effective reduction in the money supply brought about a deflation which in turn resulted in the failure of many enterprises, including farmers, who had paid high prices for resources such as land with borrowed funds expecting to pay off the loans with production selling at the higher prices that prevailed when they borrowed the money.
moocho thanks!
U.S. has always been on a silver standard, constitutionally. Bankers/Roosevelt declared bankruptcy in 1933, in order to try to change the legal status of people and to replace “real” money with the current fiat paper and acquire control of the money/banking system and economy. Due to our ignorance (and dumbed-down school system), they continue it today.
Constitutionally correct.The US, however, has gone on and off a Silver/Gold standard several times in its history depending on the crisis of the day.Nixon was the one to remove any connection whatsoever between the USD and Gold.Switzerland had a 15% backing for a while. But that is gone too.Considering the power that has been given to the Central Bankers of the world.We are not likely to see any type of precious metal standard for decades and decades, if ever again.
interesting lesson in economic history! Thanks guys!! Wasn’t J. Kenendy the last president to propose silver money? …seems like ancient times now
Yes
Thanks Tony. We’ll prbly never have an independent person like that as President again…as powerful as his clan was he just totally underestimated the resistance of the establishment to some of his ideas….have a great weekend all!
Hoover was quite powerful in those days
thanks Tony…yes history is fascinating …it’s kind of regrettable how much we’ve moved away from any sort of personal power and charisma in politics to just influencial groups and some powerful forces behind the scenes like the Fed…elections? oh, yes sure we get choices…it’s: paper or plastic, basically..lol… Clinton, Obama, Bush II …those guys seem just like… I don’t know … that Machurian Candidate?….
Presidents, just do what they are told.Things are way too complicated for any individual.Most of the elected officials, including some presidents, couldn’t even tell you what an inverted yield curve is.
Yes, so true Tony –this country practically runs itself …and why on earth are we spending so much time and money on all the election hoopla is beyond me …real power never changes hands it seems…
)
I just want so say thanks so much for creating this great site Tony. I am just really humbled by the extent of your knowledge and very happy to be able to learn from all of our bloggers here.
OK, let’s all get some nice rest over the weekend cause it sure seems like the market wants to keep us busy with a little trading range in the near future…it’ll please some of the people some of the time and keep frustrating all of us all of the time
Agree, it is quite a nice group
Ok….my plan for today… I am looking for something difficult to believe at this point…I will shorting the market only if spx goes above 1351…otherwise I will wait until the end of the day and see how it looks like
GL to all.
rally time.
MONTI, HOLLANDE SEEK GROWTH PACT WORTH 1% OF EURO-AREA GDP
Let’s not get too excited! We’ll be down later or Monday
heck, the rally never even happened! bad news when that kind of headline doesn’t get the mkt excited
current roadmap:
http://standardpoor.wordpress.comanks.
Spain absolutely blasting off on this ECB nonsesense. IBEX up 7% in 4 days.
Was the most oversold it had been since 2008.
yep. no +div yet on the monthly tho, like we saw back in early 09. weekly is neutral and daily putting in a – div. looks to me like we might get one more chance at lower lows with them over the coming couple months
me to mario monti: “why do you have collateral rating requirements and haircuts?”
monti: “well, that’s because in times of stress the value of the collateral might decline, so we need to protect ourselves and make sure that the quality of the collateral is appropriate.”
me: “so when things get bad, why do you do the opposite and reduce the quality of the collateral, completely ignoring your own well-conceived rules?”
[crickets]
Monti … “because we can.” =)
typical response of a 3rd grader. sounds about right. hey, it’s not *his* money, right
It’s confetti.Question; When was the last time any government paid off its debt?
1800s. Andrew Jackson.
Then he should be on the $100 bill.
totally
Thanks Tony, I see you updated/adjusted your 60min and daily charts.
What would be the limit for this pullback on your bullish count ? …
Should we label minor wave “a” or could be interm wave “a” on your bearish count ?
Mario, Just like before the 1303 pivot.
I stumbled on your site this evening and read a number of posts. You have a marvellous site and community. I do not do Elliot Wave but I am in agreement with David Banister. I expect tomorrow a failed rally attempt and more selling next week. My apologies for posting if this is only for Elliot Wave investors. I have been investing since the early 1970′s and I use market timing technical tools like MACD and Ultimate Oscillator, etc and buy SPY PUTS to profit and hedge. Don’t know if I can post my site address so you can edit this comment is you like. My market timing calls are at http://www.fullyinformed.com/market-timing-and-market-direction/ but again they are not Elliot Wave. My apologies once again if you only are interested in Elliot Wave comments.
Teddi, We’re not restricted to EW analysis, only good market analysis =)Welcome!
Teddi,
Your site is very informative. Your analysis comes up with the same type of conclusions.
Thanks for posting!
Hi Tony
Curious of where you think the USD is headed after the FED QE 2.5
Maybe sideways for a while?
Also thank you for this site – I’m learning something from all the eccentric folks that post here
It’s a pleasure to check in to see how everyone is viewing the market
Charlie
Hi Charlie, Thought it was heading lower after that major negative divergence.Now it can swing either way.
Thank you, Tony.
The market finished the day within my 1326-1323 support range. This completed the 3rd wave from the 1363 high. If the market moves above 1327, I would expect a pretty good rally. This eventually should be followed by one more move lower, either back to the 1326-1323 range, or the next support range of 1315-1313. If the market breaks today’s 1324 low, 1315-1313 again should offer support.
So far, nothing has happened to change my current count. I still see this as wave 4 from 1306, with wave 5 terminating near 1390-1400. That would complete wave 3 from 1267, with waves 4, and 5 yet to come. This count will remain intact unless the market falls below 1310.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
Thanks Again Steve
i don’t know if people here are paying attention – but you have been right on the money.
I sold my options at.23 when we got above 1360 – and I bought them back today at .11
After the last call you made – I figured the SDS July 15 calls would go down about 50% – and they did plus a bit more.
If you 1426 call happens before July 17 – these option could be in the $1 range ( with many moves in between ).
I hope this 1325 area holds till Monday – if so – The Supreme Court will do the rest for a few days.
Thanks Again
.
Agree – Great analysis Steve
I’ve been following your blog since you called the high at 1422
You’ve had the magic touch as of late
Thanks for posting here on Tony’s site – very much appreciated
Thanks, Steve. Your 5 wave model analysis is very interesting. Got you on bookmark.
Thanks everyone.
Steve
The potential speed with which the decline will ensue could be alarming, so just be prepared mentally is all… always willing to be flexible and nimble I am, but am concerned about a significant drop yet to come after a small bounce
Best to all
Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a huge bounce tomorrow. In any case, we should get some important clues by the end of the day..
Anyone read about the GS short call today?
Apparently DOW was at about 12815 when the GS note went out at 10.52am
Goldman’s Noah Weisberger makes the call…
We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June.
He goes onto note that despite the FOMC’s easing, analysts had already expected that, and that monetary policy is now on hold.
pas,
didn’t read the piece..but saw the headline and the link that Igor posted earlier today about their call. Thank you both for sharing the info.
Rule #1 with all the friendly advice from GS for me is – be careful not to trip over yourself trying to thank them for the crumbs they throw us…the piece basically says what they wanted: they wanted selling and they wanted shorts to stay short after today’s close…the way to 1285 (later on) could well lead through 1390..and that way they’d be still be right ….that said all I know is that if we close tomorrow below 1306-1307, something is wrong with the bullish picture..
Yes & back in March Goldman Sachs said:
‘Best Time in a Generation to Buy Stocks, Sell Bonds’
And yes, some are saying a drop below 1307 kills the bullish cash.
Yep tough day Tony
Hey Lee, got muskie? Or muskies got you…
) let us know what’s happening in your world, OK…Enjoy!!
Tony,
Can you update on WROC if it’s still on after today?
Still on.It only gets invalidated if the market fails to confirm an uptrend.
1327 is a short term pivot. Evidence is still for 5 waves down from 1362 pivot to 1207 minimal
we will see though
Good luck all and best to your trading
Thanks Tony
nice BGZ trade David and ur your COCK A DOODLE DOO was fun as well …
for all the Fed-disappointed traders out there, there is a view there that the Fed did not want to front-run the Europeans with a large QE program and sort of wanted to give them a chance to sort out their problems first…saying de facto we’re a-OK in the US and Europe needs to do its part now…he also expressed pretty strongly the idea that the Fed was willing to act if needed…so just waiting for Europe to do something….Ben trying to look good as always…
Honestly, I was expecting one last wave up before the resume of the downtrend. So It is a bit confusing to me and I find quite difficult counting the 4th and 5th waves from 1307. We may have something different. BUT it is what it is.
I guess 1320 and 1310 are very important supports now. I want to see how the market reacts at these level before I start trading again.
CONGRATULATIONS, DAVE. The market sold off as you predicted. (I thought this was going to be seen just tomorrow.)
GL
Oh well, this thing reversed right in my target zone.
We could still work on something more elaborate (3-3-5 expanded flat maybe that fools everyone with a final 5 way advance into Q3)
Sure looks like a perfect 3 wave retrace then the big beginning of selloff today – Tgts way below
Thank you for your thoughts, Tony – I know, it must have been
a tough day….