SHORT TERM: FED disappoints, DOW -13
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were slightly higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1360. The market had closed at SPX 1358 yesterday. Continuing with yesterday’s afternoon pullback the market declined moderately heading into the FED’s FOMC statement at 12:30. At 12:30 the market sold off immediately after the statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120620a.htm, hitting SPX 1346. Then it began to rally. Just past 1:00 the SPX hit 1362, a point under yesterday’s high, and then began to pullback again in a volatile post FOMC market. At 2:00 the FED released the following, ahead of chairman Bernanke’s press conference: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120620b.htm. Around 3:30 the market found support at SPX 1347, and then rallied to end the day at 1356.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude dropped $3.20, Gold slid $12.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum declined from extremely overbought yesterday to nearly oversold today. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30. Then Existing home sales, the Philly FED, Leading indicators, and the FHFA housing index at 10:00.
The market opened slightly higher today but gradually drifted down ahead of the FOMC statement. After the FED announced Operation Twist would be extended until year end, and they added $267 bln to the original $400 program, the market sold off rapidly to SPX 1346. But just as quickly it reversed and hit SPX 1362, one point under yesterday’s rally high, a half hour later. Keeping with the volatility of an FOMC statement, the market reversed again, and again.
Today’s FED action, or FED inaction to some, and the resulting market activity. Suggests Minor wave 3 may have ended at SPX 1363/1362 and the current pullback is Minor 4. Under this scenario Minor 4 should not overlap the Minor wave 1 high at SPX 1336, or worse case SPX 1329. Should this occur the entire move from SPX 1267-1363 was likely an ABC rally in an ongoing downtrend. Should the pullback hold support, SPX 1342/47 or 1335/36, and move to new rally highs. Then we can count five waves up from the SPX 1267 low, and the potential uptrend remains intact.
Short term support is at SPX 1342/47 then 1335/36, with resistance at the OEW 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum neared oversold but ended at neutral. The short term OEW charts remain with a positive bias with the swing point now around SPX 1338. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be underway
LONG TERM: bull market
Hope everyone noted my point on Oil last week.This bounce till noe was just a technical divergence bounce.Oil was telling the real story.Good Luck everyone.
Definitely hard to get bullish when commodities are so weak, especially oil & silver.
you guys are right that cheap oil reflects slow growth in the BRICs, which are supposed to lead the world…however lower energy costs mean more money in the pocket of the American (and world) consumer…so if our economy is 70% consumer driven (OK, Apple I-pod driven
so maybe the Fed is targeting specifically that part of the equation…which is quite important because it will help increase the demand for goods produced by the BRICs and consumed largely in the developed economies..just my 2 cents
Thanks Tony
P.S. I had 1327 as a fib possible pivot low, but Im still bearish unless we friggin rip off of this, which is unlikely.
1422-1267 1
1267-1362/3 2 or B
1362-1200 3 or C… roughly
we will see
David: “Time for me to crow a little-COCK A DOODLE DOO”–lol..sounds like a victory lap Dave..
and ur “P.S. I had 1327 as a fib possible pivot low, but Im still bearish unless we friggin rip off of this, which is unlikely.” – sounds a bit like “yes-no-yes-no” – but really funny anyways ..just like Lee always says…it’s the internet…so it’s got to be entertaining…thanks Dave.. .lol
LOL CB. Totally agree. See a lot of people come back and say “I told ya so … ”
As a trader my money is in the firing line and butt on the hot seat.
It’s the internet.
+1 =)
lol..Vivek, yeah, we need some laughter while “butt is on the hot seat”
LoL. Always good to have a “hedge” in trading…
what’s going on guys
…the market is down 2.23 % today and we’re laughing…there shall be no laughing, kidding, or having fun of any kind now…that’s what Ben said…
LOL. It’s only money..
lol..I like ur “hedge” in trading RJ
10 pts down, 3 pt rallies all day long on the SPX.
Time for me to crow a little
COCK A DOODLE DOO
ok , back to work
^ Is that what a crow sounds like David? hahaha
Just a point.
Fed announced Twist on September 21. The market immediately headed downward, then moved up before moving down to the lows of the year at the beginning of October.
I’m watching stocks I’ve wanted to own get lower over the past couple of months, but I still feel there is more room to go. I’m 95% in cash. Altucher, controversial as he may be, had some good advice about trading.
“HOW TO BE THE BEST TRADER?
Serge Koval @sergekoval: If you wanted to build a useful tool for traders or investors what would it be?
ANSWER:
The most useful tool for traders:
A helmet they put on their head that gives them a massive electric shock everytime they consider putting on a trade.
This is not to say trading is all bad.
But it forces you to be REALLY SURE before you put on a trade. Maybe you will only do one or two trades a year then. That’s enough to make all of your money. And trading includes both the entry and the exit.”
Taken from: http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2012/06/ask-james-biggest-fear-scummiest-decision-prenups-shame-trading-the-president-and-more/
doesnt work. Over a period of time you will just be left wearing the helmet. A trader has gotta take calculated risk, else no money in market. Risk averse people should – actually I dont really know what they can do with their money ..
pbnj123-
as far as i’ve heard, the bank downgrades are still [potentially/rumored to be] on tap for after the close today
Yikes – okay thank you
Cheers
Well. Thank you Ben. Can’t wait for Aug. 1. Jackson Hole? Geez.
OK. Time for one of those turn-around Tuesdays…err…Thursdays.
Mike, mayde Dr. B is thinking that lower gas prices and int. rates are already a big stimulus to the American consumer..
CB, Mr. Market is giving Dr. B a BIG vote of NO confidence. I think B knows he’ll have to do QE3 and is hoping to put it off as long as possible. The deeper the hole gets though, the harder to dig out. IMO he’ll pull the trigger by Aug.1. Only question, how much additional damage by then?
Mike it certainly seesm that way.. they ran this market quite a bit on pure hype (typical FED MO..lol) .now a bit of a retracement…closed below 1326 which is not too good..next fibs are 1317 and 1304 so the risk is about 22pts vs 54 reward pts to 1380ish if that’s still the case ?? I am not feeling too good right now…but who knows… tomorrow is another day..
be exact , those fibs were …38% from 1266… = 1303.69
and 1315.10 ..50% retr. of the 1363-1266 move, (correction of the 1317 number that I’ve posted above)..
MARKETS GOING TO NEW LOWS.
I picked the low on 6- 1/4
My subscribers have been short for a few days.
http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/
so if you mean 3 days by “a few”, then they’re now about flat?
Sounds like you “know”
“we in trouble down here Tony…?”
is this the same scotty who said “Not going to happen david” to my 5 wave down after 3 waves up forecast?
we in trouble down here Tony…?
pretty weak bounces along the way today. doesn’t feel too awesome
cutoff 1329
so we’ll probably get to 1329.10 then bounce, just to keep things confusing
We broke 1329 by 0.15 .. (google shows low 1328.85)
Time for the 2:22 ramp
2:22 ramp, really -that ‘s a good 1, ..didn’t know about that one….watching 1326 fib clstr before I decide to be a hero..also crude allegedly headed to 75 (nice round number : )
Alright CB – It’s Hero time.
Marvel Comics needs a “Falling Knife Guy”!
GL if you pulled the trigger.
I’m in too early at 1332…we’ll see
yes Charlie it was time,wasn’t it..I am long .. pushed the button a bit too early though , dang it -and I am saying : Bernake turn on your love lights now, pronto!!..lol
Blame GS for this plunge
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/goldman-short-call-p-trips-market-162021910.html
if anything i think most shops would take the other side of anything they say!
rc – hearing anything else about the potential bank down grades?
Right, but for the short-term leveraged trader there is little consolation knowing that he is right about the general market direction hehe
After their call a little while back that the this was one of the best times to buy…
They need to make up their minds.
1332.49 bottom?
As I said, next move is down. My UVXY position is already profitable, expect volatility to rise. Some fools in the media were talking VIX to 12 – not going to happen. As usually – buy low, sell high.
Hands up in the air , back to the wall… tomorrow is going to be a bad day in asia…would be lucky not to lose any money this month….Thank God Tomorrow its Friday..Cheers!!!
looking like – for the moment – SP 1336 is a support level.
that was what – old W1 high? sure looking like a critical price
are we are currently in……
Hello Folks.Down cycle has started.Time for bears to get out of their caves.
DAX Time Ratio 161.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/06/dax-time-ratio-1618.html
morning folks. there’s talk we’ll be getting some downgrades on UK banks from Moody’s after the close today. they said they’d release the downgrades on the whole group of GCMIs at once, so if this is true it could include BAC, JPM, GS, MS.. all those guys. cheers.
btw, what’s’ the deal with crude and copper totally not playing along with the Europe risk on rally…?
No QE, no incentive to buy
plenty of incentive to still buy stocks it seems
noted, L. Ellison was buying into Lanai, HI.
a lovely place…
ECB to post new collateral rules (for MBS) ….now that will probably have an impact on risk-on.
I’m following the German 10yr Bund market very closely. My speculation is that we have just started to see “short covering” in the Bund to Spain, Italy, French spreads and that the first leg down for 10yr Bunds (price) may take a breather. I have closed my short Bund and wait for a new entrance higher up. This would signal “risk-on” in a short while.
Rumors today that ECB is buying Spain and Italy through their SMP program but that can as easily be hedge funds covering their short spreads. I believe in the latter (less-risk)
thanks Magnus
Turtle Trend Analysis: Current Hourly Trend: NIFTY-I last traded price: 5111.35. Neutral, Trend Up Above: 5143.5, Trend Down Below: 5031.5. You may follow us on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs . Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
When was the last time an abc corrective rally caused a falling 50 dma to flatten out?
Mr Momo says wave 4 ended at 1266
I saw some positives with the waves today. Near term, if we break 1347, I see support between 1326 and 1323. A move above 1361.57 should mean the uptrend is continuing.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
Today was 13 fibonacci trading days from the 1267 lows. 61.8% retrace of 5 wave decline completed. Mclellan oscillator near October rally high levels yesterday. Full stochastics rolling over at highs. ABC pattern looks relatively obvious to me, maybe I’m blind.
So… all in all, its just a bunch of warning signals to be cautious… doesnt mean you cant pick some stocks and make some money, but it may mean the SP 500 index is about to roll over…
tick tick, we will see…
http://chart.ly/6qtb9ei
Did that a few weeks ago on Jun 7
one last wave up !!
Thanks for sharing.
What is your bullish alternate in case this began a new leg up ? Or stop on the ABC pattern?
Still in W3′s in COMP SPX DJI NDX
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/06/20/elliott-wave-forecast-for-6-21-12-still-in-3s-in-nasdaq-ndx-dji-spx-youtube/
Amazing how volatility (VIX) was sucked out of the market in a sudden bust. Nice if you sold options
NAS Time Ratio 161.8…Fibo 38.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/06/nas-time-ratio-1618fibo-382.html
Hello Tony,
Any particular reason why your daily Dow chart, which shows your preferred count, indicates “DOW DOWNTRENDING” if you think we are in Major 3 of Primary III ? It sounds a bit counter-intuitive !
Also, you keep saying that the DOW is the primary index on which to count waves yet in your daily comments you only mention the SPX count, which by the way is not your preferred but your alternate. Is the inconsistency on purpose ?
People are more interested in hearing about the SPX.Downtrends are downtrends until confirmed as uptrends.You should know all of this by now =)
=)
There is fact and there is projection
fact is downtrend has not been confirmed as reversed
projection is that downtrend is going to be reversed
facts are not to disputed
projections are there to be verified as either fail or success and become facts
keeping facts and projections separate is counter-intuitive. Neither is it inconsistent.
Have the same ideas than yesterday
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M1 says:
June 19, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Good evening sirs,
I still see the same. My alt # 3 unfolding.
However, this countertrend rally it is starting to look more like a wave B than a wave 2 to me. So at this point, I see:
1. wave 3 from 12,399 (dow) could be done and wave 4 may be unfolding. Wave 5 after that.
2. 13,000 (dow) should act as resistance as I mentioned yesterday.
3. wave C down should be next. It is possible wave C=1.62 of A.
4. A choppy wave C and quite difficult for trading.
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Here is the chart: http://scharts.co/LCY6AG
GL
This seems about right: “Bernanke Playing Markets Like A Fiddle: Extend The Twist, Save QE3″
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/06/20/bernanke-playing-markets-like-a-fiddle-extend-the-twist-save-qe3/?partner=yahootix
Nice read. Thanks Mike.
Thanks very much Tony.
Tony, so if we take out 1363 tomorrow then I guess minor 3 is extending?
Minor 5 likely than
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
expecting more of a pullback today wasn’t even 25% retracement
Thank you Tony – crazy day as you indicated – cheers