SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +115
Overnight Asian markets gained 1.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: 2.3 vs 17.1. Then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.1% vs +1.1%. The market opened higher, nonetheless, at SPX 1333, rose to 1335, dipped to 1332, and then started to rise. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 74.1 vs 79.3. The market continued to rise gradually, with only 3 to 4 point pullbacks along the way. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1343 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.15%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold slipped $1.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought during today’s advance. Last night the FED reported a rise in the Monetary base. Today the WLEI declined again, to a lower contracting low: 47.0% vs 47.8%.
The market opened higher today, cleared the high for the week at SPX 1336, then ran into resistance in the 1342/47 zone. Of the three short term counts we have been following: 1. the zigzag was eliminated, 2. the Minor 1 and irregular Minor 2 was opted out of in favor of, 3. a Minor wave 1 to SPX 1336 and a Minor 2 to 1307. Minor wave 3 continues to appear to be ongoing following last week’s WROC buy signal. Short term support now rises to SPX 1335/36 and then 1327/29. Short term resistance is at SPX 1342/47 and then the 1363 pivot. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be underway
LONG TERM: bull market
Today’s high of 1343.32 completed wave 3 from the 1310 low. I had been looking for wave 5 to complete near 1354, but it now appears 1367 is a more likely target.
Happy Father’s Day to everyone!
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
Thanks Fiona for sharing.
My Elliott Wave Itunes Iphone/Ipad app is #157 best seller in the Finance section
http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/wavegenius-live-elliott-wave/id504435654?mt=8
Well done, Sam.
….interesting chart from Tom, with a little expansion on his parents’ analysis.
.http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/?utm_source=McClellan+Chart+In+Focus+-&utm_campaign=4ebf3b49ea-CIF_Overbought_McClellan_Oscillator6_15_2012&utm_medium=email
Thanks Tony.
Happy Father’s Day to all Dads.
Nice one thanks!
I have no idea of the indicator.. but smells like a “this time its different” argument….bad news for bulls if I have to say so….everyone should be bearish right about now.. else this rally is going to fizzle out on Monday stranding all the stupid longs like me…
Disagree. Tom’s analysis is very insightful with historical data points backing it up. It is NOT different this time as he points out past conditions with similar set ups. Doesn’t mean we can’t pullback but likely limited. My thought is that we’ll see very few short covering opps.
Bonds still say – ES heading for 1225 – A break above 1355 would be a short failure
Happy Fathers day to all – GL next wk
Best trade since the start of the bull market in 2009.. long bonds AND long stocks
Thanks Tony, I have to admit this was a very constructive day for the bulls. Even when it is open yet, my alt # 3 looks weak after today’s and this week rally. The market didn’t give any chance today for shorting it. My reentry point for going short again was never hit.
It looks like the technical indicators were correct last week suggesting more upside this week.
Sure we will have an interesting weekend update tomorrow.
GL
(-100 dow points in my account this week)
Thanks Tony.
Gee, did the market just say: Greek elections? – yawn …” the more you run over a dead cat, the flatter it gets.”
CB, Greece could do everyone, especially themselves, a favor by staying in the Eurozone but issuing their own currency.England and Switzerland do it. Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland are probably going to do it, eventually.So why not be big and get the ball rolling now?
Thanks Tony. I am sure they’d love that too…the problem is: they still need to re-pay some of those loans…The Brits and the Swiss were so smart not to get involved with the euro…oh, as always in life…it’s easier to get into something than out ot it…
Actually the UK and Switzerland have always been outside the Eurozone. In fact Switzerland isn’t even a member of the European Union.
I think what you meant is that Greece should leave the Eurozone; but remain within the EU.
Given that the secular bear market is not due to end for another 5 years, I’m not sure it really makes much difference whether Greece is in or out? Isn’t it true that in the long-run national debts will be paid off naturally during the next secular bull market cycle?
Alex, That is want I meant, Greece should leave the Eurozone.Long term debt is rarely ever paid off.It is usually inflated away.
Thanks Alex for bringing up all those interesting issues & yes we understand those distinctions between the EU and the Euro monetary accord as well as the Swiss independence (which they’ve always guarded so much due their bank secrecy tradition ..). It will be very interesting to hear what Tony thinks about the short and long-term aspects of the situation which you bring up.
Despite it’s small economic size, Greece is important legally. ..from what I understand the Eurozone system is a bit like “Hotel California – you can check out any time but you can never leave”..well, sort of .. : ) – under the EU law, no exit provisions have ever been set up for the members of the monetary union. If Greece finds a legal way to do that, it would create an important legal precedent which other countries could then follow – so de facto it could easily mean the beginning of the end for the euro (considering how many countries might want to exit in order to repudiate their euro-denominated debts.)
On the issue of splitting their EU membership from their EURO membership – doesn’t it seem doubtful whether what those incoming politicians in Greece want would be met with approval from Brussels & the int’l banking system? …I mean wanting to repudiate their euro-denominated debts and simultaneously trying to retain all of the benefits of the EU membership??…that’s a lot to expect, especially if they’re not ready to control their fiscal situation…so some hard choices for them ahead, it seems.
Not sure how leaving the Euro helps to inflate away the debt?
A Greek exit wouldn’t necessarily devalue the Euro, in fact it would probably have the opposite effect, because a Eurozone dominated by Northern European nations would lead to a stronger currency.
That would make the Greek national debt even harder to pay off, since the debt is denominated in Euros.
I think the Greeks would also suffer hyperinflation on imported goods, including essential medicines, etc…
Interesting market. Seems to be playing out as predicted. Thanks for the insights Tony!
Next week should be some interesting whipsawing action.
probably so
Thanks Tony “Thunder” Caldaro !
P
I’ll be hunting Esox masquinongy next week in Lake of the Woods Ont.
So whatever the market does just know that I’m the right way all day
Hey C B and RC pick up my slack here will yas ?
enjoy!
Hey Lee, we couln’t even if we tried to…. So we’ll just admire you from a distance for a few days.
) Hope you’ll step up to the microphone once in a while and help us connect the dots as only you can. Lee, ”the hunter”…hmm. That sounds really cool!!
done and done
have a good one, Team Tony’s Tigers
happy father’s day guys!