SHORT TERM: market opens flat then rallies, DOW +156
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher again: 386K vs 377K, plus the CPI was reported lower: -0.3% vs +0.0%. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s SPX 1315 close, dipped to 1314, and began to rally. With only 3 point pullbacks along the way the SPX hit yesterday’s high, 1327, by 1:00. A pullback followed to SPX 1321 by 3:00. Then on a central bank rumor the market spiked to SPX 1334 in 10 minutes. After the rumor could not be confirmed the market dipped to SPX 1323 by 3:30, and then header higher to end the day at 1329.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rallied $1.60, Gold added $6.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum vacillated around neutral today. Tomorrow, the NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, then Consumer sentiment at 10:00. It is also Options expiration.
The market opened relatively flat today, rallied to yesterday’s SPX 1327 high, pulled back, and then rallied to 1334. This is only two points off the week’s opening high print of SPX 1336. This market does appear to be making upside progress after tuesday’s SPX 1307 low. Should the market clear SPX 1336 soon, the corrective zigzag count would be eliminated in favor of the two remaining impulsive counts. If we count Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 1336 and 1307 respectively. We could also count Minute waves i and ii, of Minor 3, at SPX 1327 and 1311 respectively. Today’s high at SPX 1334 would be part of Minute wave iii.
Short term support is at SPX 1327/1329 and the 1313 pivot, with resistance at 1335/36 and 1342/47. Short term momentum is just above neutral. The short term OEW charts turned from neutral to positive today with the early rally. The swing point is now around SPX 1316. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be underway
LONG TERM: bull market
tony caldaro says:
June 15, 2012 at 2:51 pm
It’s the weekend!
Now thats a great post ! Nice call Tony !
Just an ALGO slow jam
Oh this markets a peach isnt it ?
I remember 3x option exp used to be an semi event the last 1/2 hour of the day.
I also remember gas at .43 cents and getting a “gravy” for a quarter
Well, as you know, they front run options expiration these days.Most of the action has been occurring on thursdays.In the early 1970′s, before Kissinger’s oil embargo idea, gas was 25 cents/gal for quite a long time.Remember, Nixon said when he took the USD off the gold standard; “There will not be any inflation, if you just buy American.”
Yep . Man that had to be something @ 25 cents !
Good ole Nixon I guess he wasn’t a crook
Tony what were u driving in the early 70′s if u dont mind me asking ?
Thunderbird … powder blue4200 lbs curb weight, and even at 80 mph it felt like you were sitting in your living room
awesome ride
http://keepamerica.com/shop/
USA !
not much selection but its a start LOL
Lee, Manufacturing will be returning to the USA by decade’s end.
“Thunderbird … powder blue4200 lbs curb weight, and even at 80 mph it felt like you were sitting in your living room”
Big smile on my face That’s livin ! u pushed some air with that baby
LOL! U guys are so much fun!! Thanks !!!
Was like driving a bullet. Shaped like one too.http://automotivemileposts.com/files/tbird1963convertiblepatriciangreen.jpg
wow, is that powder blue, Tony? ..haa… finally something to match my jacket… where can I buy that antique?…oh wait probably woudn’t fit in a regular parking spot any more…
) Have a great weekend all!
probably not =)
I stand corrected ! Thats sharp !
this strong of a rally heading into such a binary weekend is making me somewhat bearish for early next week. in a way, i think the worse case for the mkt at this point is greece stays.
what happens if greece exits? very high likelihood we get some very mkt friendly headlines/backstops out of global central banks. central bank goodies vs. greece badness? no contest.
what happens if greece stays? nothing. no bailout headlines, no central bankers coming together, global leaders holding hands singing we are the world. we’re back to exactly where we were. except with every short having covered due to fear of the global bailout.
sounds like a total pump fake setup to me, at least short term. will be no big deal, and folks will come back and notice we’ve rallied 70 s&p points in 10 days, we’re overbot short term, and we still have a few days until the Bernanke speaks…
Just think not many traders want to be short.
my point exactly! what usually happens when the longs are long and the shorts are gone..?
It’s the weekend!
I agree with Tony
most guys I know in my tiny world got stopped out of shorts yesterday
hahaha true enough. and now it really IS the weekend!
Second spike day in the making! Liftoff!
EURUSD Time Ratio 138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/06/eurusd-time-ratio-1382.html
Upward 3 Targets for DOW SPX NASDAQ NDX
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/06/15/elliott-wave-noon-update-video-for-6-15-12-upward-3-targets-for-dow-spx-ndx-comp-youtube/
Liftoff! Wonder why no fear of Greece? Is the election rigged already?
We’ve been fearing Greece – all $330B GDP of it – for 3 years. Plenty of fear here.
That’s half of QE 2 … big money =)
From CNBC :Finding reasons not to like the current stock market doesn’t take much work, as the faltering U.S. economy, European debt crisis and looming fiscal cliff makes the job pretty easy. But devising a list to be bullish — after one dismisses the usual “stocks are cheap” and “best house in a bad neighborhood” platitudes — takes some work, especially if your natural inclination is that the market is heading lower……my thoughts exactly!
reloading my short positions at higher price…if it brakes below 1334
I think you need to pause and consider Tony’s question below.
Thx….only following the waves… remember I made abt 1500 dow points and lost 300 up to yesterday during the last three/four weeks ..so I am willing to put in risk another 100 more dow points. …after that I will pause…thx again
1334 was not broken yet
Nice one …Cheers!
WoW! the top of the dow over the last four weeks was 13279 and the low 12,035.. that makes your performance ..err…rather impressive
Considering your last comment to M1…………..your name is appropriate.
It is clear you are new to this game and do not understand how to take points in waves
within a range. One does not need a 1500 point move in the DOW to make 1500 points if one trades price up and down. This is trading 101.
things are getting a little heated around here. i think it’s about time for one of Lee’s happiness inducing videos (elvis hip gyration perhaps….?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTqlLtwKZOo&feature=related Greece is the word =)
There you go! thanks Tony. from one beauty school dropout to another
Greece is up over 15% the past two days.Not sure if that means anything.
Nice Tony !
Man what a mane Frankie has !
Must be that I-talian blood
tony caldaro says:
June 15, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Greece is up over 15% the past two days.Not sure if that means anything.
it means you made good money if you happened to have bought in the last few weeks. of course, anybody else who bought since about jan 1990 is still well in the red. doh
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jag9889/5483202296/
Nice one!.. personally I would consider myself in seventh heaven if i could catch 65% of a trend …as for the name .. well I hope to God I am a mentally retarded enough to follow all my rules blindly for better or worse .. in health and sickness….. while not foregoing the joys of a lively debate like the one we are having…. but without being influenced by the discussion…
Cheers
Lovely!
Mrkt Indexes and T Bond may be starting to show initial signs of correlation. This can happen at any time on occasion but I have noted it is abnormally strong during periods of QE. Also taking an Opinion Survey: Will this New All American Pass Time prove to be “3 strikes and you are out” or “it takes 4 before you get a free walk”? Participants in the survey may be entered in a drawing to receive a free Apple Newton (circa 1993) or maybe not. Enjoy your weekend, the mrkts are only going to get stranger as the summer goes on.
I guess a soft 4 …Man I already have a place picked out for the Newton !
Thanks TJ have a great weekend
breakout time? dow already looks in good shape
Options expy with a dash of short squeeze
options expy tells me there’s a good chance we’ll get back to unch’d at some point during the day
Here we go…
Or more likely a good ol’ fashion pindown at 1335 that Hulk Hogan would be proud of….
If you have enough alternate counts, its like having 6 fantasy football teams… one will be a winner
Im sticking with this ABC rally of 1267 as a B wave at best, or a wave 2 with 3 down still coming. 1344-1361 remains my best projection for C wave highs…
Guess we will see… I trade stocks for profits, I dont trade futures or the markets… I forecast… or try…lol
David,
Another possibility is the following:
1= 1422-1357= 65
2= 1357-1415= 58
3= 1415-1292= 123
4= in progress irregular flat (1335-1267-1340?)
5= to come
Rallying over 1340 is key as is the Russell 2k breaking above 775-785. Would also like to see oil, the Loonie, and other commodities begin to perk up a bit for the bullish count to sit with me.
Is this what you are seeing ?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p83860344517&a=263954061&r=1339785443319&cmd=print
Sector Tradz Update:
http://sectortradz.blogspot.com/2012/06/market-sector-ratings-and-openclosed_14.html
thanks Sector
hmm everybody talking about the “fake spike” yet nobody in futures sold the spike overnight.
on another note, here’s a problem i have now with the QE trade… the Fed has never done it with stocks down less than 10% off the highs. we’re only 6.5% off the highs. i wonder if the fed sees things dire enough (in the US) at this point to take action yet. domestic mkts were in much worse shape the last two times. and our economic data was worse as well. this time most of the bad data is overseas.
how bad does this mkt get if we dont’ get our QE this month…?
on the fixed income and credit side of things, there’s not much buying going on. folks seem to think QE has a decent chance of happening, and honestly folks don’t really seem to care much anymore. stocks might get a pop, but companies can’t pay their bills with stocks. (well, most of the time… haha)
I remember the flash crash in 2010 was also called a fake ‘fat finger’ spike.QE is all about buying time, like LTRO.If the FED does not push the buttom now things will only worsen and they will need to push the button later.Their main thesis, for the past year, has been jobs, jobs, jobs.Also their PCE has stalled and is heading lower.
Agree on the “if they don’t do it things will get worse” concept, no question. I just wonder if that’s enough. I’m looking at Core PCE and it just now barely started dipping down, but on a Y/Y change basis is still nearly close to the highs of the last 3 years. We’re at 1.9% y/y and 0.13% m/m; it was close to zero m/m and below 1.5% previously.
Ben has also made comments this year about what he sees as structural jobs issues, which make it seem like he suggested liquidity can only cure so much of that.
All that said, I’m still a full believer of Ben’s helicopter. Just not sure we’re bad enough this time, and don’t think the market is at all set up for that.
I just look at the PCE, not the core data. In 2008 the PCE was tanking. Ben offered $200bln in QE, spending continued to collapse. Then he appears at the CFR in Mar09, and magically announces a QE 1 expansion to $1.4 tln. Market ramps up and consumer spending follows. 2010 comes along. Spending peaks in the spring, dips, and starts to level off before its next drop. Rumors start about QE 2. Then at Jackson Hole, in August QE 2 is announced … but not the amount. Now look at the PCE. Peaked in late 2011, dropped, tried to recover and now is dropping again heading toward that 3% level. We’ll probably see 3% in the next few months. Time to act is now, not in the next feww months. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=PCEModify by % of change from year ago.
The housing market is closely tied to many jobs. They have to support the nascent recovery at almost any cost. If they don’t push the button shortly, the negative sentiment will destroy the housing recovery and then it gets really nasty.
Operation Twist was all about housing.
Thanks rc – That is the one nagging question I have been asking myself – why would the fed do anything now???
as Tony said – maybe knowing that the market will tank if they *don’t* do it will be enough for the Fed.
Sigh – I thought waves were natural not juiced
Tony – something else I have been thinking about. You call for a nice run up to 1499 to complete this up trend then we will see a 50% correction into 2013 – 2014 to be followed by a 50% correction before a new long term bull market is to begin that will last years. Does this mean then that we will need more fed money again to get this one going?
Sorry if dates are not exact as you had listed but the idea and thoughts are still the same.
Thank you
PB, Not exactly.An uptrend to 1499 would only complete Major 3 of Primary III.We would still have Major 4, and Major 5 to complete Primary III.Then Primary IV and V to complete the bull market … before the 50% (more of less) drop and bear market.
Sorry – that should read only 1 50% correction
Reloading my short positions if it brakes below 1322
GL
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY-I last traded price: 5096.4. Current Hourly Trend: Neutral, Trend Up Above: 5144.8, Trend Down Below: 5046.25. You may follow us on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs . Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
This market just keeps getting more interesting. My upside targets are 1343-1344, followed by 1354. That would complete wave 3 from the 1267 low. There is an area right at 1335 that could be troublesome. If the market can’t push above that, it may be putting in a top. At the moment I see that as a low probabllity. Support remains at 1316-1318, and then 1297.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
Everyone bracing for the worst. NO ONE trusting any rally. Read many who call today’s move higher a “fake spike up” and “bull trap”. May or may not test the lower range we’re in but better buckle up. I bet we see a 10% up move without a break – a pause – and then a continued move higher. Bears and sold out bulls will not be allowed on the train…
Prevailing sentiment…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-recession-warning-signs-everywhere-201200023.html
Great! I’m all in. Wait, doing opposite of everyone else does not mean you are right! So why exactly market has to go up and away? Perhaps there is a magic wand able of making all these ugly stories disappear. Never mind Europe, job growth problems, lending freeze, whatever else supposedly causing this economy stall. Let’s just close the eyes and push the buy button.
Tony, you mentioned permabears before. Well, although you have alternative counts, it looks like you primary count attracts a lot of permabulls here
I see the media has done its job here. No permabull here. Was expecting the greatest depression in history back in ’06 as sentiment was approaching euphoric ranges. Bailed on RE, stocks and took a small position in gold. Got out a bit early – that was then. All you have to do is look to history. Look to the Asian crisis in ’98 and what global growth did then. Even a closer example to today was the European recession in the early 90s . What happened to global growth then? On top of this Europe as a US trading partner is a considerably smaller piece of the pie today thanks to an as important emerging market(s). Look at trending sentiment measures, P/C ratios, Commercials positions in Euro/Dollar futures, Treasury rates and trend, insider buying, corporate cash stash and buybacks not to mention cash on the sidelines, look what history tells us about election years and specifically election years with a Democrat incumbent. Lastly and probably most importantly look at VALUATIONS/growth vs. historical averages . Ask yourself where is the crowded trade today… ? The human condition doesn’t change. No perma anything here – just the facts.
Kvilia, Swimming upstream, US rising while most of the world has been declining, is a difficult task.But just going with the probabilities of the waves and the money flow.
Agree Tony. I am just following the waves…this means the money flows….and all this suggests my alt # 3 is unfolding
Err…. Tony… India seems to be perking up as well and shanghai is not doing too badly either despite the tidal wave of bad news that is just hitting the media everyday about both countries…….my point .. US mkts now have some pretty strong company on the upside….
That would fit with a continuation bull here, and bear market rallies there.
Cheers Tony!
Tommyboys, yes ur right – a low-volume summer rally after all the selling we’ve had sounds good =) …Merill Lynch is still running their ad & as much as it costs them they woudn’t be doing it w/out any payoff or during horrible market conditions…the only thing we’re asking for is a little washout ahead of the Fed., and that crazy talk out of Greece, no matter who wins, seems like a good excuse to get just that…even if we have a gap-up on Monday, which will then be sold (like it happened after the 1st election – pls correct me if I am wrong, but that’s what I recall happened)…so just thinking that a little selling between now and the Fed would be healthy…
just checked – if the May7 post-election date is correct, then that Monday was rather un-eventful -opened and closed around the same level..we got more selling afterwards..
Anyone aware UBS forecasting $50 a barrel and comparing this crisis with 2008? Euro problems could start this summer they anticipate. I’m staying long thinking Tony’s count is correct but boy it takes some cahones, and I don’t think this is for me. Can I hope for a rally to 1360-1370, so I can finally unload my XIV?
Tough Spot – Bond Mkt not buying this BS right here, The Market broke a daily short set up today but the bigger weekly short is still alive and doesnt break until ES breaks 1354 Russell didnt break its daily short set up – so jury still out right here
Bonds are stupid?
Thanks Tony,
I don’t know who dropped that rumor abt central banks, but I still think this was the correct count
http://scharts.co/OLdQjg
We shall see.
GL
was it a fake spike today ?
Nope…we will get at least one close above the high of the spike on the dow…today or on Monday….after that its anybody’s guess… why ? because markets have a tendency to gravitate towards the extremes of spikes…
it will still be a fake spike…this means it wasn’t wave 3 up
=)
possibly
Looks like a pump and dump game at this stage. The rumor didn’t even create much of a pop and was met with immediate selling. I guess they (the market makers) are running out of time to dump their stuff, so this rumor mongering has to do before we take the market into the final low next week?
Just paranoid speculation? Maybe. I don’t know. Difficult to read this action, but the rumor didn’t even create a sizable spike once you zoom out.
well said TS, and makes a lot of sense…funny how “the rumor” basically stated the obvious ( Centr. Banks are ALWAYS on standby these days, aren’t they?…lol )…and “the market” had such a strong reaction to it ..my oh my – maybe, just maybe, someone needed a better short entry level….interesting times continue…
So far still an A B C pattern, this is C wave finally getting going after breaking the 1308-1324 B wave running correction
continue to look for 1344-1361 for C wave from 1267, then we will monitor from there.
P.S. And Brent can confirm this, we went long VRNG yesterday at ATP and took some profits up 14% today in 24 hours. Patience and waiting for the set ups pays!
Cheers all
Yup. It was like magic. David might have a new customer soon.
I’m sure he’s getting many as it is.
No kiddin’
Seems like they are front running elections this weekend.Would imply vote not goiing bad?backstopping a meltdown?
Question.How can anyone remain short overnight when the central banks have their fingers on the liquidity button?Think today’s 1% move in 10 minutes spooked a few bears.
As it was meant to. I am skeptical.
I wouldn’t be able to sleep if I was short. I wouldn’t be able to sleep if I was long. I’m sleeping great just waiting. Loving the analysis from all. Thanks to Tony and everybody here.
Analysis paralysis? I sleep fine with my positions. But I hedge through this volatile time.
I suppose it depends on what time frame you are trading investing. If you have a short time horizon, then I would say that the most logical position is to be flat and have dry powder going forward. If you have long to medium term horizon then you probably have hedged some if not almost your exposure. ( volatility on 1w 2w eur/$ is extremely high because of this).
If you like the long side, the best argument is the one mentioned in your question above, if you prefer the short side, your argument is that every further CB intervention has a shorter lasting effort than the previous one, and therefore you are not that scared.
I am short term flat, medium term confused and long term ignorant!
Thanks Tony !