SHORT TERM: market opens flat then rallies, DOW +156
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher again: 386K vs 377K, plus the CPI was reported lower: -0.3% vs +0.0%. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s SPX 1315 close, dipped to 1314, and began to rally. With only 3 point pullbacks along the way the SPX hit yesterday’s high, 1327, by 1:00. A pullback followed to SPX 1321 by 3:00. Then on a central bank rumor the market spiked to SPX 1334 in 10 minutes. After the rumor could not be confirmed the market dipped to SPX 1323 by 3:30, and then header higher to end the day at 1329.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rallied $1.60, Gold added $6.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum vacillated around neutral today. Tomorrow, the NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, then Consumer sentiment at 10:00. It is also Options expiration.
The market opened relatively flat today, rallied to yesterday’s SPX 1327 high, pulled back, and then rallied to 1334. This is only two points off the week’s opening high print of SPX 1336. This market does appear to be making upside progress after tuesday’s SPX 1307 low. Should the market clear SPX 1336 soon, the corrective zigzag count would be eliminated in favor of the two remaining impulsive counts. If we count Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 1336 and 1307 respectively. We could also count Minute waves i and ii, of Minor 3, at SPX 1327 and 1311 respectively. Today’s high at SPX 1334 would be part of Minute wave iii.
Short term support is at SPX 1327/1329 and the 1313 pivot, with resistance at 1335/36 and 1342/47. Short term momentum is just above neutral. The short term OEW charts turned from neutral to positive today with the early rally. The swing point is now around SPX 1316. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be underway
LONG TERM: bull market