SHORT TERM: market gaps down, DOW -77
Overnight the Asian markets were +0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Retail sales (-0.2% vs +0.1%) and the PPI (-1.0% vs -0.2%) were reported lower. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1319 and pulled back to 1315 by 10:00. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported higher: +0.4% vs +0.3%. The market then staged a rally, hitting SPX 1327 by 11:00. Another pullback followed to SPX 1320 by 12:00, and then the market tried to rally again. After hitting a double top at SPX 1327 just past 12:30 the market started to pullback. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1311, then bounced to close at 1315.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.80%. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude lost 75 cents, Gold added $6.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum remained under overbought for most of the day, then dropped below neutral. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims and the CPI at 8:30.
The market gapped down at the open today, dipped to SPX 1315, and tried to rally. Then after hitting SPX 1327, for the second time today, in early afternoon it pulled back. Everyday this week has been another market drama. We mentioned yesterday two potential impulsive counts. One with a Minor 1 high at SPX 1329 then an irregular Minor 2 to 1307, and the other with a Minor 1 high at 1336 and a Minor 2 at 1307. Both are still in play despite today’s pullback. The third count, is not impulsive, an ABC into the SPX 1336 high. This, as noted yesterday, will not be eliminated until that high is exceeded. Today’s market activity did not eliminate any of these potential counts. We’re still on a WROC buy signal while this market has gone sideways to slightly lower.
Short term support remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance still at SPX 1328/35 and 1342/47. Short term momentum is below neutral. The short term OEW charts have moved back to neutral again as the swing point is at SPX 1314. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be underway
LONG TERM: bull market
oh its gonna be a silly close
GL
the cat is out of the bag, or the bull got out of the pen
so…if the Greek elections go poorly they’ll act? If they go well, won’t that bring the market down now because it means they won’t act? Cuz then they will not need to act? I’m so confused it hurts.
Wow. you can tell I’m confused just from that comment.
CNBC is giving its viewers 3 options
U can buy or buy or if ur not sure u can buy
Pasani calling it the central banker put
Talking heads say just day trade it and thats good news for day traders
The maestro Greenspan started the central banker putsky in the 90′s.
Well at least were the best economy in the world again USA !
miss ya H D
Yes, with ongoing bull markets in stocks, bonds and the USD.
Another failure …100 + 35 ..loses of the last couple of trades…=(
I am not bullish yet
Thought you would have covered yesterday
Nop…it has been very difficult tracing the waves on this move up…not sure abt the count, but it looks to me this is not wave 3 up either
1335 * SPX
To say that caught a few by surprise is an understatement.
Ahhh Rollover
BDSR
rumors are a coordinated central bank operation soon
Bots just ate em up and spit em out.
I hear ya Tony
Its gonna be a long weekend
Lift off !.. If this is not impulsive then what is ?
But the big untold story in commodities today is perhaps the diverging paths of Gold and silver today..
What in heaven’s name happened to natural gas?
Inventories came in lower than expected…
Cheers!.. Thank you very much… its gone limit up here in India…
Following Greece today +10%
Tony, wave C or wave 3 up ??
Mario, still thinking wave 3
I mean from 12398 (dow)
If we clear the recent high … yes
My stop is at 12660… =( ….
Hope it is C
At least I see 5 waves from the lows of yesterday..almost completed…must be C
Any news in silver?
Rumor in Europe…..
“…BUNDS: Sep Bunds still trading firm, despite Greek banking stocks
up circa 20% on market speculation that pro-bailout parties will win the
election this weekend. Sep Bunds are up 26 ticks at 141.97.
…”
Sector Tradz Update:
http://sectortradz.blogspot.com/2012/06/market-sector-ratings-and-openclosed_6280.html
Very nice – I like the simplicity – cheers
EURUSD Time Ratio 61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/06/eurusd-time-ratio-618.html
Turtle Trend Analysis: INDIAN NIFTY-I last traded price: 5111.5. Current 5-minute Trend: Down, Dynamic Trend SL: 5119.8. You may follow us on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/stockmaniacs . Visit http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/what-is-turtle-trading-system-download-free-amibroker-formula/
High volatility knocks out stops. Going to the beach instead.
The wave structure from 1306 is a bit confusing, but a 5 wave sequence from there was completed at 1327. I see another sequence to the downside completed at 1310. In spite of the precipitous drop this afternoon, I still think 1306 marked the correction low from 1335. The end of today’s drop, and the slight rally into the close formed a bullish structure. An elongated wave 1, with small, diminishing waves 3, and 5, were followed by a rally that moved above wave 4. This set-up usually results in a pretty strong rally.
On the negative side, the end of day rally ended just below my 1316-1318 resistance level. Should the market get turned back, and fall below 1306, the next support is at 1297, and then 1290.
1354 is the wave 3 target from 1306.
Thanks,
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
Thanks Steve – good stuff.
Thx Steve,
Thanks Karl.
Thanks M1.
Steve
Zigzag Targets for DOW SPX NASDAQ NDX
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/06/13/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-6-14-12-zigzag-targets-for-dow-spx-ndx-comp-youtube/
What is WROC?
SPX, The WROC is a proprietary buy signal that usually occurs prior to uptrend confirmations.Success rate since 2008 … 90%.
Tony, based on time frame would you say 1315 is disappointing or in line with similar advances. Thanks
So far the advance is a bit lethargic
not enough money to pump it up
Europe needs a Euro-Bond
http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/527094_442826665741980_286729357_n.jpg
What do you think guys? CLF has a PE 4.3, while PG has 19 according to Yahoo. It looks like cyclicals are majorly undervalued vs. defensive stocks. Time for a move in the cyclicals IMO.
You value cyclicals based on price to book and not pe. In fact u buy cyclicals when pe is say 10000 or negative and sell them when pe is 4… The pe is 4 because correctly or in correctly CLF is forecasting an earnings collapse next year…
I avoid looking for Triangles but is there a chance we are in a E wave of a Triangle that began June 7?
thanks TJ. If 1327 was E, that would be really bueno ST.
Thanks Tony
Thanks guys
Thanks Tony,
This was the third test of 1308 and by my estimation on lower volume than previous tests, despite the climactic look toward the end. During the last minutes high volume buying came in.
Currently most people are watching a H&S top (head at 1336) and Inverted H&S bottom (head at 1267). I think the inverted one will play out, but I wouldn’t be surprised to get a bear trap move first to the 1300 area before heading higher into next week.
The Greek election are the perfect setup for a washout. Lets see.
cheers Tac!
Cheers Tony.
Hope to be right. It is very iffy here. I am surprised we aren’t selling off with Greece looming around the corner. It leads me to believe that we are already in an accumulation phase (scare everyone out of their longs).
Dunno, hard to predict anything here.
While the market is acting a bit bi-polar.We still have two days to see if the WROC buy signal holds up.Last weeks’s range was 1267-1329.This week’s 1307-1336.Looks positive to me.
Good perspective Tony. Number one reason for me to come back regularly!
Here is a 10 day SP 500 chart hourly… looks like a Running sideways correction pattern for the B wave, so again… 1308 key… if that holds, we can kick up higher
http://chart.ly/5w3pdcc
cheers all and thanks Tony