SHORT TERM: after gap up opening a decline, DOW -143
Overnight the Asian markets were +1.7%. Europe opened higher but closed -0.1%. US index futures gapped up overnight but began to fade heading into the open. At the open the market gapped up to SPX 1336, a new high for the rally, but that was the high for the day. The market then began to pullback from a slightly overbought condition, and a negative divergence. Around 11:30 the SPX hit 1320 and tried to rally. By 1:30 it had hit SPX 1326 and rolled over again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1308, then ended the day at 1309.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.65%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude dropped $2.60, Gold gained $6.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX drops to the 1303 and 1291 pivots, with resistance now at the 1313 and 1363 pivots. Short term momentum declined from a negative divergence and hit quite oversold. Tomorrow, Export/Import prices at 8:30, then the Budget deficit at 2:00. Also at 11:30 there is a speech from FED governor Tarullo at the S.F. FED.
The market gapped up at the open for the third time in four trading days. Today, again, the gap up was faded and the market declined all day. The previous gap up opening, on thursday, also received the same response. Today’s decline, from SPX 1336 to 1308, is in line with the previous significant pullback: SPX 1329-1308. We were counting Minor wave 2 completed at SPX 1308, with Minor 1 at 1329, so this decline was somewhat of a surprise.
The rally from last week’s SPX 1267 low can still be counted as a Minor 1 @ SPX 1329, then an irregular Minor wave 2 (1308-1336-130x). Or, it can be counted as a zigzag up to SPX 1336 (1329-1308-1336). The deciding factor will be if the market holds the 1303 pivot, or declines to the 1291 pivot and breaks through. The former would be bullish medium term, the latter somewhat bearish. Short term support is at the 1303 and 1291 pivots, with resistance now at the 1313 pivot and SPX 1328/35. Short term momentum is quite oversold. The short term OEW charts have moved to neutral with today’s decline. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be underway
LONG TERM: bull market
Bring on the C wave from 1308 re-test- Looked like an ABC for B to 1308…. and now C
how high?
Sticking with my 1344 or 1361-65 pivots….
then we will know where we are at
cheers all
Dave’s done it again. For some reason this momentum-chaser thinks he knows about biotech investing. 24hrs ago he threw his poor Partners into GALE – a stock that he was pump’in&dump’in across the internet through his many online disguises. Anyway, before he could get out, the stock crashed 15%. He had a huge position. Bad as this is, it’s nothing compared with his FULL Core trade in Stellar Biotech (KLH cn). He put his Partners in at 1.29C$ in Jan 2011. It now trades at 0.26. A loss of 80%. At no time over this period was he able to exit his Partners. Worse still, he kept on buying every few months. This guy will seriuosly harm your wealth..
Hi David Frasier,
I’ve see ur first on this last November if I remember correctly- you seem to be documenting things pretty diligently…
Thanks goodness I am still relying on my own poor judgement so no I can’t blame Dave for any of my own mess-ups, but feel sorry for anyone who has relied on some of those alleged bad calls, obviously
sorry, shld read: “seen ur first post on thislast…”
Just so that you can all follow Dave Banister doing what he does best – losing big, with no exit strategy in sight, here is his latest trade:
DDMG. Bought ½ position June 20th at $7.05. The stock collapsed immediately so he bought ANOTHER ½ position at $6.20 to make a FULL weighting (DAVE only ever holds about 4 positions at any one time, other than his CORE plays – which are worth approx $10 absolute, so this represents 25% of his partner’s total wealth). The shares currently trade at $5.30. A loss of -25% on the first tranche, and -15% on the second. He’ll now sit on this position all the way down to $0.8 as he did with his CORE: SA, KLH, TIC, BNG, SBAY, EW….
Watch this space
A further update of Dave’s MRM buy of DDMG. The stock now trades at $4.38. He paid $7.05 and actually kept buying to a FULL+1/2 position. He has so far lost 37.9% in a few days…. Again, with absolutely no exit strategy. He now needs to find 3 normal-size MRM plays that jump 40% just to get back to zero!
And this from a guy who will lie to your face and say he’s up 160% this year!!!!!
It would be interesting to know when Dave started down the Madoff road to fraud. I’m sure years ago when he was getting a regular pay check for average performance he considered himself honest. However, as the years passed and the losses mounted, and now working in his back room with very little money, he’ decided to cheat rather than admit systemic failure. A few years on, when he’s in jail, he’ll look back at this era and think: Why did I risk it all for so little???
Reply
Things getting a bit more clear.
at this point, a brake below 12491(dow) may confirm we have the first wave done. Then b and c (if you are bearish)….. but it looks like the whole structure may take one or two more days to be completed.
If that is correct…PATIENCE !!
Quite an impressive downward move in 10 yr Euro Bunds today, -1,56% in price. Not unheard of but still significant. Why? R investors fleeing EUR? Is it supply (just €5Bn 10yrs Wednesday in new supply vs $35Bn supply of 3,10,30yr USD, NOTE net net of $4.3Bn since lots of US 3yr matures) the factor? or is the €100 Bn re-capitalization of Spanish bank sinking in? or is Italia’s situation deemed very different from Spain? or is it Greece leaving Euro already priced in? (which would be a positive in my way of thinking instead of a contagion disaster which is the common thinking right now since the rest of Euro is ring-fenced), or is it Asia that move full-throttle out of Euro?
I’m short Bunds since last week.
Forgot to say that Bunds are still in wave 4.C.5 in my EWT
thanks Magnus
Hi Tony, last year in one of your commentaries you made an excellent quote. I wrote it down, but somehow lost it. Will be great if you can recall. It looks like : ‘a’ begets ‘b’, ‘b’ begets ‘c’, ‘c’ begets ‘d’.
Might have been one of my moments.Recall the moment, but not the words.
Yea the quote is excellent! I remember one of the ‘letter’ above is ‘fear’, but i reallt cannot remember the rest
the absence of love begats fear
While this blog is a great effort in analysing the market,I would caution anyone in taking the market too seriously.My thinking is the entire setup is rigged for High frequency trading systems to make profit,hence the up and down moves don’t matter as in the end the price would always revert to the mean.
EURUSD Time Ratio…61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/06/eurusd-time-ratio618.html
It looks to me we are working the first wave of the correction (after it is completed, I guess then we should see wave b and c) ….OR …if my alt # 3 is wrong, we should see the structure of a new uptrend and a huge rally
No trades for the moment…let’s leave the market to guide and show us the way.
GL
U guys be nice to each other.
I’ll see yas
R C
Thanks again for all u do here.. U keep it fresh and real.
I’m gone fishin !
nice, enjoy my man. would rather be hookin’ trout than flipping bonds! cheers
looks like 1320 back in the crosshairs short term
haha
i didn’t realize that was funny Lee! hah 5 waves down from 1335.52…?
1335-1320-1326-1307-1316-1306 this am.
“What? are u saying I’m funny I amuse you ? ”
No I’m saying it’s funny u know how u tell the story.
R C
There it is
1320
I’m just having a good time is all
i have a knack for pointing out the obvious.
Hey R C
So does my wife
She thinks I’m a moron .
Morn all
The Robots do not care who “said” what.
Last time I checked it was today which is the most important day you have in trading.
Get some
=)
God save the humans !!
RC, any info why the “sell” of Bunds today? I hear rumors on Asia shifting to USDT?
i know there’s some decent UST issuance coming and with the recent rally in both UST and Bunds I don’t think the mkt was/is well positioned for that supply. so, selling UST and Bunds to make room. that’s my take. would not view it as a “risk on” move quite yet
Thanks R C !
nice
A QE 3 program would help sop up some of that supply.
Hey Tony
+/- 8 handles /points rule on the pivots ? IMO its volatile enough to widen em
We touched support in ESU at todays low so far
Will keep it in mind Lee Need to review the data though
Thx RC, there is both Bund and USDT supply tomorrow (Bund Coup=1.75% v.s.cash=1.43%). The spread have changed during the whole day so there might be Asians switching (=risk-off) or risk-on. But risk-on before Greece elections seems hard to understand.
Good morning, I guess those who were expecting a crash or a gap down at the open may be quite dissapointed today. As expected a rebound is unfolding.
I have several scenarios very short term and I think even a brakeout of 1335 is possible. We shall see.
This is how I see the market short term. (my alt # 3)… http://scharts.co/OqEjCr
GL
Thanks
It looks like 1320 could be the first target =)
CNBC Asia technical strategist today declares Gold to be in a bear market with upside capped at 1700….fingers crossed
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/the-ultra-bull-argument-for-gold-2/
It looks like the market completed a 5 wave sequence from 1267 today at 1335. So far, the market has completed a 5 wave sequence down, at 1308. The move from 1335 looks corrective, although odds are we move lower before starting back up. The mid to upper 1290′s looks like the next target. However, if we can make it above 1318, it could be off to the races.
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
thanks Steve
Hi everyone,
I do not believe that there is magical power in fibonacci ratios. However, they may serve as a general guideline for how far certain waves tend to go, for various reasons. I just noticed that on Friday, the S&P closed very close to the .382% retracement level for the decline from May 1st to June 4th. Today, the market tried to rally higher but failed big time, leading me to wonder if we have seen a completed Wave IV and are now in a new impulse down.
thx graph
Fisher’s view on Europe…(if the link works)
The latest FTV technical video for SPX shows on the monthly chart alot of lines crossing at around 1300/1299 including the rising 20mth ma.
From a monthly chart perspective, if SPX finishes June below 1299, then some support is at 1250′ish which if does not hold then looking at support at around 1200′ish in quick time.
Though markets seem to be moving so fast these days, so Mr Market may not wait until end of June to shows his hand!
David Banister,why don’t you talk about your LOSERS like SVVC, and that Oil Stock which you claimed from number 1 stock of the year ( unfortunately I don’t remember the name ) but last time I checked it was down in the dumps!!
Jacob…about those hot stocks tips….tips are still for waiters, right?
) …sometimes the key is to simply lower one’s expectations… – cuz if we don’t expect too much, we just can’t be disappointed, right? …So I’d say enjoy Dave’s easy breezy sense of humor, try to laugh with him if you can, don’t buy into any hype and above all follow ur own muse…usually works best… just my 2 cents
You mean New Zealand Energy which I recommended at $1.00 in late November at my ATP service which was is my #1 energy stock for 2012. We sold 1/3 at 2.70, 1/3 at 3.20, and 1/3 at 3.10 and booked 170%, 220%, and 210% profits on 3 tranches. This was a few months ago basically near the highs. Its now 1.95 and still up 95% since November and we have not yet re-bought it, I think we can get it at $1.40
SVVC I recommended at 26.50-27 and it ran to 30.88 the next week, I encouraged subs to take profits if they wished or put a stop at $28.00 if they did not.
Next time, get some facts before you run your mouth
David is absolutely correct on this.
Yup. David speaks the truth. He once made a few bullish comments on this site when the market was headed right back down. He admitted his mistake and took it like a champ. Any service/fund/site/stock picker is going to be wrong at certain times. We just want to pick the ones who are the “least wrong”.
In the end, nobody is making us hit the “buy” button. The only person we can blame is ourselves.
Also! David’s service seems to be aimed at quick in and out trades. Even a day or two makes a huge difference.
b
Yes it was NZ Energy and on Stock Twits board you claimed it was FOR THE YEAR and also implied you had a target of $9 on that stock!!
Any OTHER stock you have that hasn’t gone past $3.20?
Thanks Tony,
As I always say, It is what it is. I was expecting one last pop up and it never came. Nothing is perfect. But honestly, I feel better and in something more relax. I am not the devil’s advocate. =) … I lost abt 35 dow points.
IN MY OPINION, IT IS DONE.The fifth wave of the wave 5 was a truncated wave.(I didn’t expect so) The structure that I was calling since two weeks ago looks completed now and It looks like a new dowtrend has already started.
However, we are lucky we have a wave 4 just at 1308. This should give us a rebound (at least an intraday rebound) tomorrow.
My alt # 3 looks underway.
GL
Here is my ABC Flat chart 1370-1074-1422-1074
http://chart.ly/43u2qnc
Laugh away… but it looks pretty interesting me thinks.
Strap on your seat belts if its right, now I know why that 1074-1292 was only 3 waves and headfaked me early on…
Not gonna happen David
Thanks for the eloquent counter-reply Scotty, lol. I’m the one laying out an option for everyone to view, sticking my neck out where nobody wants to… so I realize I will get laughed at. Its all good.
Best to you and your trading
I’ll post up my crazy ABC 1370-1074; 1074-1422 1422-1074 chart later on so everyone can poke some fun, no worries.
Cheers gang
D
hahaha awwww man
Thanks R C !
Lee X says:
October 19, 1987 at 2:59 pm CT
I’m buying dips this week
lol!…that ‘s funny Lee…and talking about last week – nice precise hit in gold, Lee!!
oh and thanks HD for mentioning last week that 1313 pivot would get sold soon..before you left to tee off with Bubba … that helps!!
)
bwahahahaha
awesome
David,
I totally enjoy & respect your input. Great observation 2 weeks ago when %S&P Stocks above their 50 day MA was 12%, we got some RSI divergence and a big rally. EWTheory is very difficult to make money consistently by itself…AND you don’t really know where you’ve been til you get there…That’s why Tony’s work is the Top OEW available. He’s meticulous and very experienced.
and a hell of a dancer
+1
Thanks, Tony.
Thanks Tony !
Same as it ever was
5 wave declines lead to 3 wave rallies, followed by another 5 wave decline
1349 if you count futures is an 82 point rally off a 155 point decline
Break below 1308 aint good if so….
Im still counting the 1422-1267 as 5 waves impulsive to the bearish downside and 5 more are due to lower lows eventually.
Guess we will see… 1344-1361 was my B wave ABC target, and basis futures we hit in the middle or so…. but hard to be super bullish
tony , cobra will say futures won’t count! my third favorate ramki is back from vecation. His latest update – he still has large ABC (tony’s 3rd alternate count) C down started at 1422. His C’s are always 5 waves. Wave 1 over 1422-1266 in which he has 5 waves. now Wave 2 abc going on. He feels it will travel above low of subwave 1 of wave 1 which is 1357 and then Wave 3 of C starts. So his Wave 2 is in your band of 1344-1361 ..just that he is more patiant than you! 5 wave decline took 2 months and 3 wave up over in 6 days? of course i know time is never part of count.
Had not seen RAMKI’s count, but glad he agrees. Its a clear 5-3-5 at best from 1422 highs to me. I cant make a bullish pattern out of this 1422-1267 drop. I see this rally as ABC to 1344-1361 as I’ve posted. Futures counting or not, 1349 was traded and makes the total rally 82 points after 155 point decline. We may still get a “cash basis” rally towards those 1344-1361 pivots yes, but they need to happen very soon…
Also, since the start of the 5 wave 1422 highs decline… all rallies have been 5 days MAXIMUM. As of the overnight futures we were into the 5th day of counter-rally this morning pre-open.
In any event, we can split hairs but I think we get to the 1207-1248 areas for sure, and possibly a re-test of 1074 before the summer is out…
but one week and day at a time, your right… just theory at this point. My point is I dont see 5 waves up from 1074-1422… I see 3 wave structures only…. 1074-1292, 1292-1158, 1158-1422. The drop below 1292 means this cant be a wave 4 to 1267… and I dont think from 1422-1267 is a wave 2 either…
so by process of elimination its 5 down, 3 up, and 5 down… AT BEST
cheers
thanks VMA
Thanks Tony.
Vmahambare, thanks for sharing that info. with us. Appreciate it.
5 days max rallies where within 5 wave decline. once first 5 wave decline is over now retrace of entire 5 wave decline happens in 3 waves so that need not be only 5 days. anyway this is not debtable point as such.
Yeah as I recall you were super bearish well into the new year and 100+ SP pts late. Then you were bullish right up at the 1422 high looking for 1550+. Now you’re bearish after an almost 10% pullback – I’ll take that as a strong contrarian indication – thanks!
Tommy
I came up with this ABC Flat from 1370 over the weekend as a lightbulb went on. I sent the chart to a few people to get their reaction, most were a bit skeptical at best. So this is fine.
That said… Im only stating the obvious
You can see 5 clear waves down from 1422-1267
IN fact, they all have nice fib relationships, even 5 is equal to 1. 3 was the largest and wave 2 was an ABC…
The rally since is just under 61% if you count futures… and would be wave 2, and your chance to sell your stocks and go short or cash
Wave 3 will be about 250 points… taking us to about 1100
then 4 to 1200
Then 5 to 1074 for a C re-test of A
All the patterns from 1370-1074 1074-1422 and now 1422 to current line up
3-3-5 1370-1074 ( as I pointed out here on this blog last fall). 3-3-5 to 1422 (Not 5 full waves, reason i was bearish early this year is I never saw 5 full waves from 1074-1292, only 3).
And we will know soon if wave 3 down already started or is about to
Best
Tommyboys….speaking for myself – the OEW wave pattern, in my view.
Really, is a function of the Oct 2011 low – if you see it as a Super Cycle
Low, then you are likely to be Bullish, and believe we are moving into
Primiary W3 up.
OTH – if you see the Oct 2011 low as an A wave low, and April 2012 as a B wave
High, then that is a Bear pattern.
Believe, at the moment Tony, said he is Neutral today.
Best to your investing….
Read “sentiment”…
Tony,
Even with today’s reversal and decline it appears from reading your commentary that your medium term signal which said “downtrend may have bottomed” on Friday and “uptrend may be underway” today has improved positively. Am I reading this right?
http://marketsectormodel.blogspot.com/
That medium term update was published over the weekend
Looks like ES 1225 on tap – that gap up was a kiss of death for longs 50% perfect retrace short
Tony,
I’m sure you and the other members have noticed but I’d like to call attention to the potential IHS pattern forming on the SPX and RUT intraday charts. Another test of the 1303 pivot seems likely for SPX and RUT may retest the 746 area — these tests could come as soon as tomorrow morning. There is obvious resistance at the potential necklines — SPX 1330 and RUT 775.
thanks had not seen that
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
from last wed:
rc1269 says:
June 7, 2012 at 9:25 am
sounds good to me. anybody want to wager on 1310 or 1300 as the right shoulder of our soon to be inverse head and shoulders setup…?
which is to say, i agree with what you’re seeing.
Are u gonna start quoting urself now also ?
from right now:
rc1269 says:
June 11, 2012 at 6:01 pm
yes
=)