SHORT TERM: morning dip then rally, DOW +93
Last night, after the close, the FED issued the following press releases: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120607a.htm, and http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120607b.htm. Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. European markets were lower losing 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 the Trade deficit was reported lower: -$50.1 bln vs -$51.8 bln. At the open the SPX traded at 1312, then dipped down to 1308 in the first few minutes. The market had closed at SPX 1315 yesterday. After the early decline the market started to rally. At 10:00 Wholesale inventories were reported higher: +0.6% vs +0.3%. The rally continued all day long, with small 3 point pullbacks, right into a SPX 1326 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude dropped 55 cents, Gold added $3.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum dipped to just above oversold and then began to rise. Last night the FED reported a slight increase in the Monetary base, but a slight decline in the M1 multiplier. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 48.7% vs 48.0%.
The market was under selling pressure last night. But it opened moderately lower, dipped down to last night’s lows, and then began to rally. The low was SPX 1308, which was precisely between the OEW 1303 and 1313 pivot ranges. This decline represents a 21 point drop from thursday’s high at SPX 1329, after a 62 point rally from monday’s 1267 low. This type of activity looks quite normal, for this bull market, during an uptrend. Next, providing the pullback is over, we would expect the market to rally past SPX 1329 and head toward the OEW 1363 pivot. Thus far it looks like the market may have completed Minor waves 1 and 2 of Intermediate wave one.
We also just had a WROC buy signal. These signals usually occur at the beginning of uptrends, are 90% reliable, and the more the signals the greater the trend. Our previous buy signal, was a double, which occurred in December 2011. Short term support remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots. Resistance is now at SPX 1328/35 and 1342/47. Short term momentum is rising, and ended just overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the negative swing point now at about SPX 1307. Enjoy your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market
It looks like we are right on target to complete wave 5 from 1267 between 1333 and 1337.
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
thanks Steve
Tony, If indeed this is Major 3 then isn’t it supposed to be more impulsive than the Major 1? Also cover more ground?
Trader, Major 3 was weaker than Major 1 during Primary I.Expecting the same.
jun es hourly… wave 3 of 5 extending; targets 2.618 x wave 1 = 1331 or 300% of wave 1 at 1334
Tony, one more time I want to thank you for all you do for us. Even when we didn’t agree abt the short term count in the last few days, this last trade I made wouldn’t have been possible without this blog and your daily guide.
Thanks again.
Have a great weekend.
kudos Mario!
Tony, is the weekly rate of change also bullish for Gold here?
Alex,It may be, but we do not have that type of indicator for Gold
Thanks for your reply.
Hopefully Gold will rise with the stock markets! Seems to have been roughly in sync with them lately.
At last week’s low it came within a whisker of making positive divergences on the weekly and daily charts, only 2 points away I think!
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i am confused about your summary comment that said gold gained $3 on the day. where did this datum come from? the sites i use look like the gain was almost 10X that??
Actually it gained $2.30 GLD.We use GLD because it closes at 4:00.While GC futures close way too early to be meaningful.
Im not going to post the chart here just yet… but I think I may have finally figured out this dang puzzle from 1370 to 1074, 1074-1422, and 1422-1267 and so forth from May 2011
we are in fibonacci month 13 here from 1370 bin laden highs…. and by the way we are still below those 1370 highs, and maybe bouncing to get close to it here and kiss it good bye
I can make a case for an ABC Flat 1370-1074 A 1074-1422 B and 1422-1074 C under way
More later, but I have the proof… its like a light bulb finally went on!
haa..that’s funny Dave..so AQ’s second-in-command has just been taken out in fibonacci month 13…hmm…”reality” is stranger than fiction sometimes…
Yeah, crazy isnt it? at any rate, if Im right… 1344-1361 should cap this rally and then we will drop hard in 5 waves to low 1100′s…. just a theory, but I can make the case. We shall see… better to be aware than not is all
yeah, could well be…well you’ve got 2 days to gather all the evidenc Dave…and report back to us on Monday morning, OK? (j/k you’ll be back in 5 ..lol) Enjoy! and we’d better start looking for some kind of flotation devices for that “hard drop”…
Hi Tony
Looking at your SPX charts, I see:
A negative divergence in the monthly macd.
On the weekly SPX macd, I see a 5 wave structure bull market.
I also see a probable negative divergence emerging on the weekly SPX macd if new highs are reached during this rally.
More bricks in the wall of worry.
Definitely Rob
on our way down from 1422 to 1267 we had a couple “failed” divergence.
so worth pointing that if those neg div dont work out this would be a very bullish sign.
Tony, on the weekly SP500 you show a wave 1 at the 1422 level… which would require a 5 wave move from 1074 right? We only had a 3 wave move… 1074-1292, 1292-1158, 1158-1422— an it looks like a 3-3-5 pattern also by the way.
Just again, tossing that out to ponder…. wouldnt we need 5 clear waves before you mark 1074-1422 as 1??
This is because you are making a confusion in the degree of the waves making up the move from 1074 to 1422.
Tony’s count is as follows:
1074 to 1293 – Major 1
1293 to 1158 – Major 2
1158 to 1422 – It’s not Major 3 yet, it’s only Intermediate i of Major 3. This is a much more bullish labeling.
Of course, all along Tony thought 1422 would be Major wave 3 but the overlap of Major 1 at 1292 which occurred on the gap down opening on June 1st forced him to change the count.
A lot can be argued regarding this count, particularly the fact that it is unlikely to accurately subdivide Major 1 in 5 intermediate waves.
I had already raised that point with Tony back then but the conversation stopped short as he didn’t provide a satisfactory reply to my questions.
As you say, an impulse Wave 1 should be made of 5 sub waves yet, in this instance Tony seems to satisfy himself with the “look” of 5 waves as opposed to actually counting 5 sub waves (at the minor or even minute wave level).
I will let you judge and tell me if Intermediate i of Major 1 from 1074 to 1102 on Oct 4th is a 5 wave structure ! Or if Intermediate v of Major 1 from 1198 on Oct 17th to 1292 on Oct 24th is also a 5 wave structure ? The latter one being clogged by multiple overlaps !
As I said earlier, one shouldn’t satisfy themselves with the look of 5 waves, one should be able to count 5 waves and 5 subwaves to the most minute degree.
As a conclusion, if you can challenge the validity of Major 1 then the whole Major 1 / Major 2 bullish count from the Primary II low at 1074 is invalid.
Yes, I am challenging the entire count from 1074 actually. I never saw 5 waves from 1074-1292 as it was… then I see 3 1292-1158, then I see a 3-3-5 pattern to 1422. That looks and smells like a 3 wave move from 1074-1422 to me…
so this most recent wave 1 at 1422 doesnt jive, because its not 5 full waves… its 3 full waves from 1074… and in fact, they look like a 3-3-5 overall pattern to me
I have my own chart I developed yesterday from the 1370 bin laden highs that may shock alot of people, but Im saving it for awhile.
This entire 1370-1074-1422-1267 movement over 13 fib months is something entirely different I think than the count Tony is holding here
and that is totally fine, we are both able to form our own E Wave opinions…and I respect his entirely
Hi David, Did my best to detail the count, and the rationale behind it, in this weekend’s update.
Hello Tony,
what is a WROC and how long did you backtest it?
My VSA indicators also liked today, after yesterday’s reversal candle. I think we are still in a long bear market, but we are due for more up.
Hi TAC, It’s a signal we developed a few years ago that determines relative upside stength in the market. It appears to work quite well in bull and bear markets. We’ve had 27 signals since 2008 with only 3 failures.
Mui bien. Thanks Tony. Much appreciated.
I am still waiting for a lower low (doesn’t have to come right away), but I haven’t seen a panic selling resembling any of the other major bottoms yet. Volume represented a slow bleeding instead, which is strange.
For the short term outlook I think you are correct though. I will keep the WROC in mind.
Thanks Tony, as planned I closed my long positions at the close.
Now I am in cash and waiting for more clues.
No uptrend confirmation yet ?
GL
Good stuff Tony
Still have to reconcile the 5 wave decline of 155 points on the SP 500 before assuming this is Wave 1 of 5 waves up right? Am I wrong on that theory?
Wouldnt this be ABC then 5 more down to finish?
Guess we will find out, we are looking for 1361 as the TOP of ABC rally….
Good gains in NEON, CRAY today… I gave those out end of last week. They had big weeks.
Cheers all
Pick for next week is KRO- 16.75– 19-21 target
That would be a problem for most. Will try to address it.
Tony,
Thanks for this great blog and service to all of us. It is awesome! – In about a year the negative part of the presidential stock market cycle will kick in, which goes along with your next-top-idea. What do you think will stop the stock market and how do you think that commodities can stay up a year or so longer? – Thanks, Joe
Don’t know Joe, too early to tell.
Thanks Tony! Have a great weekend everybody!
Now THAT’S what I’m talkin about! Thanks, you WROC Tony!
enjoy the weekend
Enjoy your weekend also Tony. I look forward to the weekend update, as well as a new Uptrend!
This market is telling me QE 3 is next on the agenda.Possibly $200 – $400 bln.
Tony, 200 to 400 bln ?
You sure have a lot of money
Now I understand why you get it right most of the time
Sun, I do not have the keys to the FED =)