SHORT TERM: lower low then rally, DOW -17
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower losing 1.2%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, rallied, and then turned flat heading into the open. At the open the SPX was 1 point higher than friday’s 1278 close, and bounced to 1283 in the first few minutes. Then it pulled back to SPX 1271, a new downtrend low, by 10:00. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported negative again: -0.6% vs -1.9%. The market tried to rally but could only reach SPX 1278 by 11:00. Also at 11:00 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120604a.htm. Another pullback followed to SPX 1267 by 1:30. At 2:00 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20120604a.htm. The market then rallied to SPX 1280 by 2:30, pulled back to 1273 by 3:30, and edned the day abount unchanged at 1278.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds lost 20 ticks, Crude gained $1.00, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and the 1240 pivots, with resistance at 1291 and then 1303 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold at today’s low, then bounced to neutral. Tomorrow, ISM services at 10:00.
The market opened slightly higher today, then dropped down to new downtrends lows. It did find support in the OEW 1261 pivot range, and then had its best rally since this recent decline from SPX 1320 began. We are counting an ABC zigzag underway from SPX 1415, DOW 13,339. With Intermediate wave A completed at SPX 1292, and Int. wave B at 1335. Minor waves 1 and 2, of Int. wave C, completed at SPX 1299 and 1320 respectively. Minor wave 3 may have bottomed today at SPX 1267, or this may only be wave 1 of Minor 3. Should the market rally into the mid-1280′s then a Minor wave 3 low is likely. If not, then wave 1 of Minor 3 is likely. We should probably know by tomorrow.
Support for the SPX remains at the 1261 and 1240 pivots, with resistance at the 1291 and 1303 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today, then rose to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain with a negative bias from 1323 with a positive swing point around 1302. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues
LONG TERM: bull market
Darn – getting another Push Higher….last hour might get very interesting.
just before the close – the BoYu indicator for the SP500 is starting to form
what looks like a Buy signal. as yet, it is incomplete, but worth mentioning.
Lee,I was short too,but changed my mind when we made a higher high today on SPX.I would have expected the trend to sustain atleast 2-3 days if it was strong enough.
Hey Mini
Mucho appreciate any comments u have on ESM !
Thanks !
Call me crazy but Im thinking a gap up or down will settle the question.
BTW guys are short here and not nervous at all
Divergance wins.Rally tomorrow.I still think we are in a bear but this wave is more complicated than what we had in August 2011.What do you think tony?
no bear, looks quite clear =)
Tony bustin rhymes with his answers !
Divergance wins.Rally tomorrow.
A whimper of a rally. Feels like we must still have farther to go. Just not much buying conviction yet I guess. I can’t remember the last time we put in a low that wasn’t formed by a strong impulsive rip higher.
short covering by the Bots
+1
They’re doing their slow jam
Magic Hour at the 200 dma
cmon and squuuuuuuuueze
Lets not forget ………………….Rollover from ESM to ESU to add to the fun in the wings
today right?big discount on September
Oh, it’s that time again…thanks Lee!
Charles Gasparino @CGasparino
wsj follows FNB reporting on nas/FB deal; sources say greifeld’s likely settlement for FB related losses greater $13m-$30m still not enuf………..13-30 mil ? Heck Ginger lost that much alone
* Rollover is 8 days before expiration.
* Expiration is the third Friday of each quarter month (March, June, September, December)
* The contract letter associated with each month is: March=H June=M September=U December=Z
* Rollover is on a Thursday.
* Rollover is usually on the second Thursday of the month but will be on the first Thursday if the first day of the month falls on a Friday
* Volume shifts to the new contract at market open (09:30 EST) on Rollover day
But what about June 17th ?
SPX divergance or Dow Theory? Looking for confirmation…
off topic: has anybody tried the “sticky buddy” does it really work? That is one of the best infomercials IMO
HD, you mean that Vince guy, right?…yeah..he’s is fun to watch – I love how they used that reference to the his Dade Cty. “event.” But no I don’t buy stuff from fast-talking salesesmen…my loss, I guess
cuz it prbly works…otherwise he wouldn’t waste his talent
thx CB- I’ll let u know if it’s any good. I have some interesting collections & am sucker for anything “buddy” related. this will go next to my nutty buddy. I’m not sure if I will use them together though.
nice colection! – we’ll look for sth “buddy”-related for you for Xmas HD for all ur nice work here… And I remember now – the only thing we bought from TV was the Magic Jack cuz my husband wanted to see if it work overseas…and, amazingly, it does, which means he can call for free whe he’s overseas ..the only big downside is: he calls me too much…lol
haahaha Are u hanging ur Bass mounts on em ?
looking like we completed a corrective wave up, setup for
a final drop….???
Tony -
Does OEW allow that we are in an abc-x-abc – the move up from October to April an ABC with the move down from April to Friday an X and starting now another ABC up? Thanks,
dono
Dono, Kind of abstract, but following only the SPX that’s possible.
Getting ready to buy on 5 of 5 of 5 down in SPX NDX COMP
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/06/05/elliott-wave-noon-update-6-05-12-getting-ready-to-buy-on-5th-wave-in-spx-ndx-comp-youtube/
the 30sma on 5 min has been very good
if we r doing 3, 3, 5- I can see a 3 and 3 easily.
Thx big guy !
the 335 from the lows has met some objectives. 0-B TL should hold or will mark new wave IMO.
Hi Tony, you know I am expecting only a corrective wave to the downside from 12600s. Then wave C up. This means three waves down.
I see you have already posted a 3 in green on the 60 min chart and it looks we have three waves down.
My question: what would be your limit for your expected wave 4 rebound ?
Thx
SPX 1299
Thank you Tony
200 dma was tickled
1267.75 – 1270 ****
ESM
SPX 1285 ****
G1 !
tony
looking at dow daily chart (prefered count) there are two blue horizonal lines .. i know those are your idicaticative support lines. but can be their third horizonal line around 11750 dow where black b and blue 2 labels are from previous waves? or that is not significant.
Yes VMA, The two blue lines just suggest the range of support, not support itself.DOW 11,750 would be a logical support level.
and I just went long again…
stop..100 dow points below
Hey Mario
It’s not where u get out of a position that makes u $ its where u get in … and u have have had some nice entries lately .
SLV is Stuck in An Ascending Triangle.
http://buyonstrength.blogspot.ca/2012/06/june-04-silver-etf-is-stuck-in.html
Noticed that too, thanks Igor
funny, I had a dream this morning that the Ag is breaking to the upside.
And I never dream about that kind of stuff.
maybe your higher Self was trying to tell you something
Thx Igor
thanks Igor.
Gold to become a Tier 1 asset instead of Tier 3 for commercial banks? Could be a huge catalyst moving forward. Read pages 19 and 20.
http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/95768376?access_key=key-2fdfnmu0q4uivomochfb
thanks Ryan
thx Ryan
Lee,
How did the Bassett Hound visit go?
Thanks for all the comments on Gold. If gold starts rising again from here, are we looking at a 3 up. Or would the drop from the highs last year be considered a 4 down before the final 5? Thanks.
10 days ago I predicted that the world would not end and that the Minnesota Twins would win 6 of their next 7 games to improve to only 12 or so games below .500, lol. I also predicted my wife would spend more money on the house than we need to and likely buy things we dont need.
kudos!
Hey David
What do you think about the Cubs ?
I wanna wroc this week.
haa Mike…this rally is so close I can almost taste it..here’s some circumstantial evidence..have you guys noticed in the last few days how BAC has become active with their Merrill Lynch TV ads (featuring a nice-looking black bull
I mean why would they be spending all the big bucks now on TV ads unless they know that folks will be lured into the market soooon…obviously they need to start airing these things shortly before the market starts going up so people will start thinking : Merrill Lynch when the stampede starts…
Let’s hope Merrill has some substance and isn’t just full of bull CB! lol
haa…that’s funny Mike..
I think we put in a bottom today at 1267. A move above 1283 would confirm this, and should lead to a significant rally. If 1267 to 1280 was a wave 1, I would project wave 3 of this sequence to reach 1285 minimally, and possibly 1294. If we move below 1267, I would anticipate a series of slightly lower lows, with support at 1258, and then 1252.
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
Thanks Steve.
Barry Bannister (Stifel Nicholaus Equity) is always an interesting read. I always like reading his take. He’s a fundamental analysis guy, but his breakdown does provide bullish fundamental support for 1500-1600 on SPX. For anyone interested,
http://www.scribd.com/doc/95287463/Stifel-Market-Strategy-2012-05-29-Raise-2012-S-P-Target-to-1600
Thanks rj.
Steve
I think the bottom is in for gold.
http://equitybriefcapital.wordpress.com/2012/06/04/technical-update-on-gold/
I have been saying that for 2 weeks !
thanks Ryan.
Thank you Ryan.
Ya, it seems very likely for an intermediate low to have been put in, and also likely for it to be a yearly low — very probable — no guarantee — never a guarantee
Clint Eastwood said that if one wanted guarantees one should get a toaster
lol…that’s a great quote Piazzi…and thanks for ur opinion on gold!
Over the weekend I said I thought we could complete a 5 wave sequence from 1422 between 1265-1270, and pointed to my support line at 1267. If that holds we could see that short-covering rally materialize. http://chart.ly/h33mvr3
Steve
thanks Steve
A traditional technical perspective – from a trading perspective risk/reward favors at least a short-term bounce very soon. We have good divergence now on RSI and stochastics, more importantly very good divergence as well on McClellan oscillator, and volume on last 4 days down has been higher than normal but lower than on down-leg mid May, indicating selling drying up but good size professional buying.
Initial target, and where selling expected, would be the 1323-1358 range, being Fib retrace plus May 29 bounce high of 1335 – Peter
Many people point out the divergence on McClellan. However, keep in mind that we need to see it turn up decisively first, otherwise a further sell-off could erase the divergence.
Yes we could see it erased. As always, its probabilities and amount risked versus potential reward
Like it or not. I still see the same. My alt # 3 (tony’s wild card) unfolding. alt #4 and # 5 still possible.
“Should this count be correct, we may see shorters running to cover and the most biggest short squeeze in months during ……..THIS week” =)
By the way, I trade real money. My money. (If something goes a bit different I go cash..that’s all little chickens).
Just curious: when did I say or suggested I had a crystal ball ?….
Remember: ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE…IT IS ONLY SPECULATION…sometimes you are right, sometimes not. I lost 170 dow points in a few trades back 4 weeks ago. Then I made a couple of good trades and …I am here …sharing my ideas. Isn’t it the reason for this/any blog ?
GL
Is the Train about to leave the station ???
here’s the answer.
http://sounddogs.com/sound-effects/101/mp3/153213_SOUNDDOGS__tr.mp3
Tony said:
“Piazzi, The last event after a deflationary secular and a banking crisis is inflation.Stealth inflation at that.It devalues the debt in real terms and increases GDP in nominal terms.Should the FED go to QE 3 the inflationary cycle, lasting about 30 years, will be underway. And, Bonds will have peaked”
Tony, debt is the very essence of fiat. Without debt fiat dies. Without fiat, system collpases. That is why it is in the interest of the system to save the debt and the only way I can think of is to inflate
So, while I personally agree with the inflation, I have a nagging worry that maybe before the full effect of inflation can dump the the very core of debt onto the shoulders of all of us, and thus saving it, the system implodes and the debt dies and — well, I do not want to even try to imagine what might happen then — just a nagging worry — I just hope they can print this into safety and into an eventual and gradual transition into another fiat regime — a ground zero of a new fiat system, if you will
Piazzi, After WW II, when real debt was probably much higher than it is today.The FED just allowed inflation to drive the economy in nominal terms while Operation Twist 1.0 was stealthily in effect.When the FED officially received permission for this operation in the early 50′s they soon after ended it.Debt to GDP dropped dramatically.That secular bear cycle ended in 1949. Long term rates bottomed in 1946. Think your debt bomb scenario is likely to play out in some of the European countries.Greece has already defaulted and is on EU life support.Ireland, Spain, Portugal are on EU life support too.These countries, and probably Italy too, will likely default and exit the EURO.
we truly live in interesting times
Tony,
Just a comment to a very obnoxious post earlier today taking a “free shot” critiquing your Elliott Wave skillset…WAJ: What A Jerk. I personally attended Bob Prechter’s FIRST EW Seminar in Atlanta, GA in 1987, a few months before the “world almost ended” crash (if not for the liquidity the Fed/Reagan & Co. provided). A personal friend of mine is B. Prechter’s cousin and I’ve followed him, kept hourly charts and observed his analysis for 25+ years.
1) Objectively (get it?) Bob does not have a very good track record. But he was a great trader winning 2 very publicized contests in the 1980s > using his hourly charts WITH a 10 period Rate-Of-Change indicator. He’s a much better economic forecaster and as the first BIG Bank or Country defaults setting the dominoes in motion eventually causing the US (RomanEmpire2.0) to default or hyper-inflate debt away that will be his legacy. It’s here, past point of no return…
2) I saw OEW/Caldaro mentioned in a Forbes article 3 or so years ago and have read your work and comments pretty closely over this period. Seems that you have been (very) consistently accurate (not perfect), utilize great stop/support/resistance info, the Fibbonaci input, advised scaling in and out of positions, use a toolkit of several indicators to confirm/compare moves and current structure. You get my JimmyMac A Rating. You follow the market as it unfolds.
3) Tell that WAJ to _______!!!
Jim McCarthy
welcome Jim, and thank you
Always wondered why some had to spend so much time criticizing some poster on the web. If a poster or analyst is bad in someone’s opinion, why bother to even visit let alone take the time to put him/her down?
Some people seem not to be able to get a life — sad but, hey, misery is there as well as bliss and to each his own
What’s wrong with glorifying bliss (Tony) and condemning misery (WAJ poster)…
I would just focus on eating my pizza while it’s hot !!
Cheers
thanks Tony. Gee, we are so close…and yet, as always, we need our blessing from the Fed: – ‘no can do’ without Tarullo, Yellen and Bernanke…it’s almost funny..
There are 2 trades I am looking at – (1) UCO, and (2) GDX – with respect to GLD.
The pattern is in a down channel – we merely rocketed up to the upper porition
of that channel the other day – but a break higher – would suggest gold above $1800.
Making GDX and un-loved ETF a prime mover…..
IMO today was sort of tough to interpret. You had aggressive sectors leading and lagging and considering the recent move up in bonds today’s move down was nothing.
http://marketsectormodel.blogspot.com/
The daily chart doesn’t look too bad. There was some buying going on which looked constructive, but I would have liked to see a 5th wave into the close.
Overall I think we got a healthy candle, but we failed to close positive, so for now it looks mostly like deceleration. I agree with your assessment to expect a slightly lower low, but considering how bad the news was over the weekend, today looks pretty good. Maybe finally we have seen the start of the accumulation phase. Would have been nice to see a bit more volume and a stronger close.
TAC – agreed – sentiment is near max lows, and almost feels like last Aug 2011
levels for sentiment then – I do think Tony is correct in expecting more downside
pressure. Heard there is an EU Announcement, coming possibly on Thursday.
Tony, can you confirm that ???
Monthly ECB meeting thursday
Germany is slowly caving in. Hence the Euro pop. I read it on spiegel.de (German news site)
Sure is looking like the 1266 was a minor low. the 12 pt rally 1266-1278 close
looks positive in building a strong trading low. With CIT dates of 6/7-11.
Possiblly completing part, or all of Tonys’ bottoming formation. There was
a 2nd positive, in the buyin gof UCO, and GDX today. UCO and it’s BoYu
indicator are at extremly low levels – which invites a very strong extermal low
to form in the not to distant future. Lastly – we broke below the 1269
low, which was one of my support levels – as Tony states, the is more
to go on the downside – thus I am now looking at 1254 as my target low.
Yes, understand there are lower support levels, 1254 then is the next
in line….
I have 1254-1257 as a pivot range for 5th wave here, but 1269 was my other possibility… so we are close if not there… ABC rally next is my view once we finish these pivot areas. down this far, Im comfy looking for some stock trades… CRAY, NEON, VOCS a few I like for fun… cheers all