SHORT TERM: gap up rally, DOW +126
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets gained 1.1%. US index futures continued their holiday rally, and the market gapped up to SPX 1326 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1318 on friday. Prior to the open Case-Shiller reported a slight dip in housing prices: $134.10K vs $134.14K. Then at 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported lower: 64.9 vs 69.2. The rally continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1335, and hit quite overbought. After that the market started to pullback, and declined further after Europe closed. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1323 and then started to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1333 and closed at 1332.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.20%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold dropped $16, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought this morning then pulled back near neutral. Tomorrow, Pending home sales at 10:00.
The market gapped up at the open for the first time since May 10th today. The rally carried the SPX to 1335, its highest level since the 1292 low. This was followed by an 11 point pullback to 1323. Which was in the middle of the range of the recent 10 and 13 point pullbacks, and the previous SPX 1324/1328 resistance area. The advance from the SPX 1297 low, which is when the DOW bottomed, looks a bit choppy so far. Currently: 1324-1311-1324-1314-1335-1323. This pattern is fine as long as SPX 1335 is exceeded soon. Any pullback to the OEW 1313 pivot range (+/- 7 pts.), and it will start to look corrective.
Short term support is at SPX 1324/28 and the 1313 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1342/47 and the 1363 pivot. Short term momentum looks positive as the pullbacks have all ended around neutral. The short term OEW charts are positive after the market rallied through the 1323 level on friday. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market
Nice job Mario !
Just like yes but opposite…new low ESM
see yas
Yo V !
Im just having a good ole time !
Hey C B
Ur doing fine
The ESM S2 Pivot @ 1317 vs the 1313 SPX pivot
all day
S3 97.20 CLN
Hey Lee, great ur back from ur man-cave…
I’ve just realized they were messing with me ..and I get the whole deal.. they want me to hold the stuff overnight to get paid…fine…
Interactive Brokers has a special button called “pause execution” for discretionary people like me, who get “aha” moments…
haaa..women and candy…lovable..!! Ben you owe me some candy, sdang it and give me a nice close..pleeeze
Tony, is the count being adjusting today or it needs a bit more weakness to be adjusted and be more confident on the new count ?
Thx
maintaining
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Jim O’Neill
“In the context of the European crisis for example, I’m fond of saying that China creates an economy equivalent to another Greece every 11 and a half weeks. So you could wave Greece off the map and in 11 and a half weeks, China creates another one.”
“Last year the combined dollar GDP of the four [original – minus South Africa] BRICs increased by 2.1 trillion dollars; so the equivalent of creating another Italy every 15 months, so it has been and remains the most important world economic story in our generation”.
Hi Vishal. Yes u guys are the growth engine – and pls keep it that way
O’neill was like: Greece? Oh no not a problem..they owe too much money to the banksters..cannot leave now…/when he was on Bloomberg the other day/
think he almost wanted to yawn…but folks at GS don’t yawn, do they? – too busy making $$
Hey CB
Grass is always green on the other side, BRICS have their unique sets of problems, say for ex-India yes we have 7% growth but with over 10%+ Inflation- no use!.I think US will see steady growth over the yrs to come and will remain the epicentre of the economic landscape
CB, what they say & what they do, is a different story! Any new occupancy in Lee’s “New Avengers Club”?????
yes, inflation sucks…here too..
I was just going to ask : Lee, HD where are you guys…don’t let my machine-gun mouth run too much longer.. please
CL must have kept the big man busy!
1:51 pm edt – looking at Spain’s Forex chart. It appears to be into a W3 of 3 down. With the
high last Feb, a minor (4) up of W3 down, that could take the Spain index to near 8,000,
before collapsing into a final wave down to finish W3. True, my EW is pure guess work,
but you get the idea we are coming into a world of pain, if not holding some protection like
(SH)…..http://www.forexpros.com/indices/spain-35-futures-streaming-chart
Bud
Tony, long time reader first time poster. I really appreciate all u do. If we hold 1313 pivot is your count still applicable? Or because we entered the pivot zone is the count no Bueno?
Thx
Welcome AJ, The recent rally looks corrective.
went long against the LOD..what u guys thinking…?
http://screencast.com/t/WYhtXigrbJiJ I am prbly a sucker..
I’m with you but on the ES. Lets see if we get a reversal for a while and looking to pick up 4+ points today.
thanks kjbo. It’s nice to hear from u again. It’s been a little while.
Let’s see if we can survive 1320..it’s still early
Hi CB….I hope we get a little reversal and not just an ABC with another leg down….keeping a close eye.
thanks kjbo. I am an ignoramus in EW , so let me ask: are we looking for an overlap at 1314.54 in $spx at this point? thanks
CB…….I do not daytrade with EW……not reliable enough
oh my, ur gonna hear from Tony on that now…reliability…lol
OK guys whoever knew ‘ they’ were gonna do this, yes- you-know -what -I -mean (lower low to get better +d on 5 min) please raise ur hand…
New to trading since Easter… am I seeing a head and shoulders forming in AAPL from May 4 to the present, if so, prime for a break out soon I presume?? Your expert opinions??
Welcome Scott … on what timeframe?
Think he means an inverted HS since early May and he’s right to a degree as what’s there is ‘close’ to an IHS. Just don’t know how reliable these patterns are anymore. If so though it targets about $650-680. Could easily see this over the next couple weeks.
quite small too
very interesting..thanks TB
Tony – stepping back and looking at the one month and two month charts it looks to me like we are forming either a bear flag or ascending triangle from the 1291 lows through yesterdays close and including today’s price action.
Are you seeing this as well?
1357-1415-1292-1335 ?
Sorry Tony – meant to state on the S&P
I was looking at the decline from the earnings announcement on April 25 to the LS low on May 8 at 559. Neckline starts at 576 on May 10, with the head bottoming at 522 on May 18. Neckline ending on May 24 at 576 again, and then RS on the 25th at 558.
Continuing the neckline would mean we would be breaking out right about now and the gap down opening from May 3 ($591) to May 4 was sort of my swing trade target for some 600 calls. They would pay off pretty by weeks end. 600 calls already up 25% today.
thanks Scott
Tony sorry – Lower marks @ 1291 and 1311 (today so far for low) and 1328 and 1334 for the high marks.
)
I am “looking” on the monthly and see this from the 21st of May on.
Sorry for the confusion – but let me know if you (or anyone else) are able to see it and if that is what it can be called (note: still learning
Thanks
W5 or W3 down in NASDAQ NDX SPX DOW?
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/05/30/elliott-wave-noon-update-for-5-30-12-wave-5-down-or-yikes-w3-down-youtube/
is today’s selloff down to the 1313 pivot yet another pump fake? just like the break down to 1292 on 5/18, i wonder if we get down to everybody’s stop loss where we abandon our count, only to bounce off of it. wouldn’t surprise me at this point. oh well. i remain mostly out of the market, waiting for either a big flush or a confirmed uptrend. at 1315 i’m clueless.
rc – I’m an investor not a trader so I am sitting on the sidelines and waiting for direction (a trend if it were) but that has not appeared yet but my “thoughts” are lower until Europe gets it’s act together
if we wait for Europe to get its act together we might not have to do another trade for years!
Wow. I got a friendly reminder of why I hated CL. No taming it with a little HDIVOT thing. Breaking 90 and showing 5 waves down from 92. widowmaker. support is an illusion.
1313 still anchoring the entire move. Viva la pivot.
Viva La Pivot time !
H D
H D
CL has manhandled me today…..
Gets in that algo mud slide ..so slow yet very effective
thanks Lee and HD. I am hoping that the bottom of the pivot range, not the middle of it is “huge” 2day…more like s3..but will consider myself wrong abv1318 .
Thank You C B
u are welcome Lee..I am sure I’ll be wrong any minute now…with grains going crazy U guys are wasting your talents in ES it seems..unless ur multitasking, of course
Circus behavior! What do you see in the grains CB? I have been gold, oil and ES. Glad to be just gold and ES again. 1530 still working. If 655 starts working again in ZW I’d get interested.
HD, thanks for the info. not doing anything with them now..I just saw they’ve been falling off the cliff so I thought you guys were all over it…
I am out, prbly too early.. – think the bots are seeing +d on 5 min
S2 1317 ESM
they closed the gap from Friday
What a orderly market eh ?
And made a new one
haaa yuuup
guys are loaded up short @ 1317 now
ESM
+ div on the …2 min chart ESM
what ? its the chart they use
S2 is the algos
U guys have a gooden !
For a 2 minute rally?
Tony, no kidding…they use 30 sec. ..maybe lower….but I can’t go any lower
CB, Barely see much use in 1 minute chart.
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
2 minute rally 2 minute egg
Do u feel like the 1313 will fail today ?
If we lose 1311
Thanks Tony
Tony, they are not useful for most humans( incl. me) to trade…but good for spotting divergences….
Hey C B
Remember these guys are trading against Hal2000
Haha…Lee, yeah…that’s true!… this market is like the new S-class…it drives itself…
Tony, starting to think this recent consolidation/up move was likely corrective?
sorry, answer below. pls ignore. thx
Hey R C
Dogs living with cats ,,its the end of the world
love the Ghostbusters reference!
“mass hysteria!”
LOL Hey RC u nailed it !
Hi Tony, Am I correct in understanding that if we enter the 1313 pivot range you think this recent rise of lows was corrective and we’re likely to re-visit lows and maybe lower? Thank you, Alex
yes Alex, and we’re already there.
Sure are..thanks guys
interesting new post on gold by Peter Brandt. What does heading down to the 1241 level in gold do for the long term bull market count please Tony?
$1241 … we’d have to wait another 20 years for the next gold bull
Closed NSM for 13% gains inside of 1 week yesterday, there are still stocks to buy in this market for sure. Still no confirmed new uptrend though, but close!
Morning. Europe is bad, blah blah blah. More of the same. At least this time it sounds like the EC is recommending the creation of a European Banking Union which could lend directly to banks and bypass sovereign interaction. Is that not what the ECB needs to see to get more involved?
In the meantime, Spanish and Italian bonds are… wait for it… yes, wider this morning. Shocker. Italy is +16bp at 5.90% on the 10yr, while Spain is +16.5bp to 6.56%. Spain is only about 15bp away from their all-time highs from last Fall (and were only 5bp away earlier this morning). Once they start knocking on 7% again either bad things happen or the ECB gets involved again.
thanks RC,Europe is like a broken record.
Tony – agreed and yet the tail is still wagging the dog
No longer a market of stocks, but a stock index
Thanks RC !
SP500 Time Ratio…61.8…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/sp500-time-ratio618.html
is there anybody also shorting this market ??….As I mentioned, I went short today. 150% as usual.
Not sure abt the count. but it looks like my alt 3 is unfolding. We shall see. Stop at 12700.
GL..see you tomorrow
remind us again what your ‘alt 3′ count is, if you don’t mind
RC,
“M1 says:
May 25, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Thanks Tony, it is good to see 1292 held this week. Not so sure a rebound is coming. In my opinion the market could go either way early next week.
So My alt 1 (suggesting a rebound) and alt 3 (suggesting another leg down) are both possible now. I’ve removed my alt 2.
alt 3: if we see another leg down I think it could be wave b down. And also a perfect short term bear trap.
Have a wonderful weekend.
Reply
tony caldaro says:
May 25, 2012 at 3:44 pm
et tu Mario
Reply
thanks bud!
I’m waiting to take one side or another as soon as there is some definitive action.
It’s amazing how this is playing out like last year. There was a bit of a ramp up into the end of QE2…then boom, right down after.
Would be nice if we had a rally coupled with some big volume.
On another note, isn’t it a good thing that Facebook, zynga etc are being sold off..elimanting the chance of there being a bubble?
Brent, sentiment is quite negative
Total Portfolio Update:
now 85% long, 20% short, net 65% long.
Well, my outlook for today didn’t pan out so well, as I was looking for the market to continue down today. The opening rally looked impressive, but the action from there didn’t look very good. A steep decline, then a choppy rally. This may have been a false breakout from the 1324-1328 area. I agree with Tony, that if we don’t break back above 1335 soon, the market could be in trouble. I see support at 1327, and if we go through that, 1323. If that doesn’t hold, we could see a pretty good move down.
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
We’re likely in a triangle and sideways through early next week. We’ll bust higher from there. June will usher in the winds of change. This Europe thing is played and well priced in. Anything short of armageddon should rally the globe.
Yep. It’s not like this “European crisis” is a shocker to anyone in the financial markets. Like a bratty child, they are just going to push the financial markets down until somebody throws more money at the problem, and then we go up. That’s my simple fundamental analysis. This whole European crisis was bound to happen when they “created” the Euro at the turn of the century.
Could very well be. Everyone is looking for a big move in one direction or the other. The market is notorious for doing the exact opposite of what everyonr expects. That would be go nowhere.
Steve
FT is reporting that the ECB has rejected Madrid’s plan to boost Bankia’s capital
doesn’t sound good
Yes, about an hour ago
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4fe89d8c-a8df-11e1-b085-00144feabdc0.html
Thanks Tony.
Interesting Fiona, We were just discussing this from an historical perspective.This type of attempted German domination occurs during every deflationary secular cycle.It will not work. It never has.
Thanks Fiona. It looks like there are two things at work: a) the ECB wants a central European bank regulator rather than each member country individually and b) the ECB may only intervene once Spanish yield curve inverts like the Italian back in December before LTRO as this would create too much stress in the banking system. So let’s wait and see.
Waiting for that WROC!
Tony
Primary 4 could be quite short in distance, huh? Even a rally to 1499 would hardly produce any real percentage decline given where Primary 1 ended. Is that unusual? Aren’t wave 4′s violent in nature typically?
JaJa, The fourth waves in this bull market have, so far, been benign.Second waves have been nasty.Lots of bearishness.
Volume needs to pick up a little if this rally has legs. Otherwise I think we are just setting up for a new down. Hopefully then we get the divergence on the daily indicators and run.
Thanks Tony !
It is choppy and personally I’m getting a bit tired of it.
Use stops Dream big
Exactly
Fb off 33 per, so ya gota get 66 per to go even. The Creamer brought tst public at a split adjusted 650$, it’s struggling to grasp 2$.
Had a odd lot of rimm trigger, the 10$ rule.
Be careful out there.
This is not a judgment on anything, so don’t finish my……..
Sharks are all that’s left…….Creamer feed em….
Just for you Zimbabwe, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPc16cuQJR0
haha…..sorry all I’ve got is a slightly off-colour FB/Zuck joke that’s NOT fit to print ..
Water under bridge, all the peeps walked.
The US$ made another new high and the EURO another new low today, it’s still not there yet.
Thanks Tony!!!