SHORT TERM: futures rise, YM (DOW) +45
Overnight the Asian markets rose 0.6%. Europe opened higher but declined losing 0.2%. US markets were closed for the Memorial Day holiday. At the close of holiday futures trading ES (SPX) +6.50 and NQ (NDX) +15.0. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude rose 35 cents, Gold added $1.00, and the USD was lower. Tomorrow, Case-Shiller will be reported at 9:00, then Consumer confidence at 10:00.
Should the market open at current levels tomorrow it would be right in the first resistance zone between SPX 1324/28. The second zone is between SPX 1342/47. Support remains at the OEW 1313 and 1303 pivots. The market closed at SPX 1318 on friday. Best to your holiday and trading week!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market
Still looking for 1419?
Heck Yes !
Aren’t we all ?
Hello ?
Agree with HD.Today’s lows look important, just as friday’s low was important heading into today.
Tony – how about 1499????
That’s our target for this uptrend, once it gets confirmed.
Thanks Tony
ESM just made a new HOD so Im sure something “news’ worthy will come out tonite and well get a 99% retrace or something in AH.
geez, that’s scary Lee!!
It is C B
Any thing else is pure speculation
I mean really, Lee, those Beastie Boys
– it must be just me – I get intimidated easily by that kind of stuff.
Thanks Tony. Nice job HD. Thanks guys.
haaaaaa Thanks C B ! Those Beastie Boys were nice fellas Im sure
haa. OK only cuz you say so Lee…
)
Btw, folks I understand that Bernanke is testifying on June 7 (Congress), so maybe he’ll take us into another galaxy by then..
Time to give em “THE BUSINESS” imo 1324 is huge
thanks HD
Good job H D !
Hey Tony
Did u get over 100 f over the weekend ?
thanks
high 90′s I think … been dry and hot, wilting weatherjust rained for the first time in a week and half
Hi Tony
Your count seems to be different on the USD but could we be looking at a Wave 3 in action from 2011 low?
Tx – Charlie
Charlie, Unlikely.Currencies move in ABC’shttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p07974253943&a=67200089&listNum=11Within the A’s and C’s five wave movements can occur.
OK – thanks for your patience. Looking at your chart is 87 a reasonable target? (A=C)
86-87 DXY has been the target
man, FB is brutal
i thought that one would make a good short someday, just not this soon. i should have known when one of my former coworkers – the only one on the team who does *not* use facebook – got IPO shares. nobody who uses it actually bought shares.
EURUSD Time Ratio…138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/eurusd-time-ratio1382_29.html
All I know is that I’m not paying over $3.00 for a corn dog this year at the State Fair{s}
haa! Maybe $2.50 eh? new hours screwed it all up. If there was ever a case for an X wave there ya go.
Haha How bout it H D !
Still like 90 CL and now we have 90 and .618 back.
Thanks H D !
Best case scenarios intraday for DOW SPX NASDAQ NDX
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/05/29/elliott-wave-noon-update-video-for-5-29-12-best-case-scenarios-for-dow-spx-nasdaq-ndx-youtube/
just went short…above 12600 (dow)..
it is a risky trade….stop at 12700….
GL
So, seemed a lot of folks thought we were due for a bounce – and here it is.
There seems to be a lot of divergence, however, about what happens once we’ve recovered to the 1340-1350 area. Tony’s count is up to 1499 or so, before down again. A couple others are thinking we head down again much sooner.
Aside from Tony’s count, which I always respect, does anybody have any other good support for the alternative thesis? that is, soon to be down again. thanks in advance! -rc
Morn R C
Don’t forget the folks calling for a bounce and drop at the same time
U guys are mucho smarter than I so Ill leave the counts to the experts.
I trade with a 3 second chart
>>Don’t forget the folks calling for a bounce and drop at the same time
hah. Lee, those are precisely the people I try to forget…
Hey RC- Looks like the obvious pattern is 3 waves back from the low. Gold and oil thinking same. 1324 is huge. IMO
we’re sitting right on huge
I do prefer the Bullish OEW pattern, and the low 5/23 – that said – with the
SP500 above 1329, and my own 1331 – a positive pattern is more
visible – the only snag I can see is the VIX – now 21.54. Failure
of the VIX to fall below even 20 is annoying. It tends to leave me
cautious – let’s see if the SP can push to 1350 ish….
My own est for a high is near 6/5….best to all….
Upward 2 Reversals Min. Coming in DOW SPX NASDAQ NDX?
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/05/29/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-5-29-12-upward-2-reversals-coming-in-spx-dow-nasdaq-ndx-youtube/
thanks Sam
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DTluZIPRl0&w=560&h=315%5D
DOW 20,715 (Retro Vid From Feb 2012)
Igor, nice work on that biotech stock…thanks
You are welcome. I am glad you like it.
Hey Igor, yes definitely – you do great TA work, share so much of it with us & explain things really well (thanks). Frankly, I am feeling a lot like a free-loader sometimes. So if (?) I can get better organized sometime I’d like to do similar work on some of the ideas I get from time to time & try to make them more …presentable. This way I can get more disciplined and we can share the workload a bit more evenly. Plus I love the idea of getting feedback from traders who are better than me so I don’t waste time on ideas that are bad to begin with. Prbly. need some kind of space for that and I am not much of a techie or administrator…but maybe I’ll get inspired one of these days…never say never..
FWIW~ we had the double cover contrarian indicator strike again: Newsweek recently titled with the US$ as Superman and the German Der Spiegel (the German version of The Times magazine) had a splintering Euro coin in front of the Akropolis. Sentiment for the US$ is extremely bullish and for the Euro extremely bearish on both sides of the Atlantic ocean. We can’t be sure about the timing, but at some point is has to break the othe way than everybody thinks and is positioned. It is impossible IMO for the US$ bullmove and Euro bearmove to continue with such sentiment extremes.
http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/index-2012-20.html
Only a matter of time now.
I ask cuz I did not see a Wave V in the chart on stockcharts..
Fifth waves, like C waves, are replaced by the wave of the next highest degree
Okay. So from 2009 we have a new cycle/era. Everything before that is not related. Right ?
Now from 1075 we are wave 3 of a fresh cycle that started in 2009.
Thanks. that was my last question i promise.
Correct
Tony: Out of curiousity , since when have you have been having this 1500+ target ?
I understand from your charts that we are in Big wave V and wave IV ended at 666 in 2009? right?
1500+ was a general target in 2010.In 2011 we got more specific.We’re in Primary III of Cycle [1]. 2009 was not a 4th wave. It was the end wave.
Tony, if we get a slight new low in the coming days (like the 200dma) does that mess up the. ABC wave 4 ? It would look like a 3,3,5 move off the top no ? Is that valid ? It might set up some positive divergences and allow for some policy response. Thanks.
TMF, The DOW looks like it already has done a five wave C
Do you only count the Dow ? How do you account for the 4 into 1 violation on the spx ?
Not a violation in OEW terms.
Gotcha ! Thx !
Oh yeah. oops.
Thanks Tony. Appreciate it.
Tony:
I see. But that would mean 5 of primary wave 1 was only 21 from 1349 – 1370points ? Don’t think that was even an impulsive wave…
1249-1371
Question for Mr Caldaro : One of the main Elliot wave rule is – wave 3 cannot be the smallest of the 3 impulsive waves.
Your long term count will break that rule. Do you realise that?
Wave 1 : 666 to 1220 = 554 pts
Wave 3: – 1011 to 1371 = 360 pts.
Wave 5: 1075 to 1500 = 425 pts.
Point to note: 1075 + 360 = 1436.
Hi Humble, Primary I: 1371Primary II: 1075Primary III: underwayDuring Primary I: Major 3 was shorter than 1, but not 5.During Primary III: Major 3 is long than 1.Do not see any problems.
Hard to disagree but you won’t have much echo here about using a disastrous economic situation as a basis for lower stock prices !
As much as they like to call it “Objective” EW, this is a blog with a very bullish bias.
No one can deny that Tony has had an amazing run the last few years maintaining a bullish forecast in spite of a sustained degradation in world finances that has proven to be accurate for the most part. But I think all good runs eventually come to a stop especially if you try to over reach and push your luck too far.
Of course there is always the contrarian stance which is an integral part of all technical analysis and EW in particular. Things are pretty gloomy and any decent news that promise the postponement of the inevitable crisis facing us could ignite a large rally that may achieve a higher high but at this stage, odds are slim.
In the meantime Ewavers will do what they do best, which is to tweak their preferred wave counts and offer several alternates and then claim victory when prices eventually follow one of the many and diverging wave counts they will have proposed.
Whether it’s a bear cave like Prechter, or a bull pen, like Tony’s blog, the followers are like a cult and no matter how inaccurate their forecast may be, they always praise and offer their guru full loyalty and support.
my feeling is that the market went up for basically seven months….i think its too early for a correction to be over regardless…is a 3 to 4 month consolidation not normal after such a big move…i think it would be…we will see how it all shakes and bakes..
thanks Niner
I resemble that remark. I think I agree with many points you say. Please forgive me I am only human
but I am trying to evolve.
Show me one MAJOR top that has been made without a Bearish Divergence first occurring on the weekly charts by TRIX (or MACD if you prefer).
Can’t be found. 1987, 1990, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2007/8, 2010, and 2011.
The market reached incredibly overbought levels at 1422 on the weekly charts using MFI and RSI. TRIX has now rolled over hard but the market needs to make a higher high first before a much larger sell off can occur. Maybe this is the exception to the rule and the bears will find every excuse in the book to say, “This time it’s different”. Only it rarely ever is. The market will take out 1422 before the next pullback is to occur.
thanks Val
My opinion is we need to clear 1332 on a closing basis early this week, or 1300 and then 1240 come into view this summer
Thanks Tony
I am not one to make predictions but I tend to watch, observe and act upon what I see. But something has caught my eye that I believe will make you and your readers think I’m nuts, but at the risk of loosing any credability I may have garnered here goes. It appears to me that INDIA may be the one to lead us out of this mess. There I did it, let the pot shots begin.
All the best this holiday
Dave
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-27/tales-of-india-s-economy-twistier-than-kama-sutra.html
remember India jumped 15%+ in one day after UPA 2nd election win. Now it seems markets want to close that gap before UPA goes out of power in 2014 or before.
So far that looks like a possibility
Hi Dave..interesting observation….and I .don’t think ur nuts at all
Would be interesting to know why you think that India will lead….also, does that mean ur looking at techs, semis(?)…thanks.
based comment solely on charting method I use
Thanks Dave.
The small hump started to fade quickly. I don’t see much positive coming out of Europe until the Greek situation is resolved and Spain stabilized.
For this bull market to unfold, it would need massive stimulus again. Doesn’t make much sense considering the “fiscal cliff” we are facing.