SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +34
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets gained as well, +1.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were flat: 370K vs 370K, but Durable goods orders turned positive: +0.2% vs -4.0%. The market opened higher at SPX 1322, and then pulled back to 1316 by 10:00. Another rally attempt took the SPX a bit higher to 1324, but the pullback that followed took it even lower. At 2:00 the SPX hit 1311, then rallied into the close to end the day at 1321.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude gained $1.05, Gold slipped $2.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum touched overbought before declining. Tomorrow, Consumer sentiment at 10:00.
The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 1324 early, pulled back to 1311, and then rallied to close at 1321. Overall it looked like a constructive day, as the OEW 1313 pivot held support and, the advance from yesterday’s 1297 low to this morning’s 1324 high looked like five waves. While the market did, momentarily, trade over our swing point of SPX 1322, it did not stay there long enough to trigger a potential uptrend. Now with the swing point lowered to SPX 1321, and the market closing at 1321, we could get a positive signal in the first hour of trading tomorrow.
Short term support remains at the OEW 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1324/28 and 1342/47. Short term momentum ended the day rising from just under neutral. Thus far, we see a rally (1292-1328), a pullback (1328-1297), and now another rally (1297-1324-1311-1321 so far). Clearing the SPX 1324/28 area during this advance would certainly be a positive. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market