SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +34
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets gained as well, +1.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were flat: 370K vs 370K, but Durable goods orders turned positive: +0.2% vs -4.0%. The market opened higher at SPX 1322, and then pulled back to 1316 by 10:00. Another rally attempt took the SPX a bit higher to 1324, but the pullback that followed took it even lower. At 2:00 the SPX hit 1311, then rallied into the close to end the day at 1321.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude gained $1.05, Gold slipped $2.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum touched overbought before declining. Tomorrow, Consumer sentiment at 10:00.
The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 1324 early, pulled back to 1311, and then rallied to close at 1321. Overall it looked like a constructive day, as the OEW 1313 pivot held support and, the advance from yesterday’s 1297 low to this morning’s 1324 high looked like five waves. While the market did, momentarily, trade over our swing point of SPX 1322, it did not stay there long enough to trigger a potential uptrend. Now with the swing point lowered to SPX 1321, and the market closing at 1321, we could get a positive signal in the first hour of trading tomorrow.
Short term support remains at the OEW 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1324/28 and 1342/47. Short term momentum ended the day rising from just under neutral. Thus far, we see a rally (1292-1328), a pullback (1328-1297), and now another rally (1297-1324-1311-1321 so far). Clearing the SPX 1324/28 area during this advance would certainly be a positive. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market
thanks everyone. Hey Tony, we have the first weekly green candle..if you can give us the WROC…then we’re gonna be like Jagger last week…’it’s only WROC’n roll but we like it’
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have a great weekend all! Thank you all the Veterans!
Sorry CB … no WROC this week.enjoy the holiday!
Thanks Tony….have a great weekend also and get plenty of rest – you deserve it so much!!
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P.S. Folks – plesae do Tony a favor and don’t ask what the WROC is – it’s proprietary and it’ll show up whenever it’s ready .. cheers!
BTW, just marked a green Major 4 at low.cheers!
Thanks very much Tony!
Have a fun & safe holiday everybody !
et tu Lee
Theres always the pivot
true. but just going by pure gut here, this week does not seem like the kind of [strong] bounce we should see after dropping 123 points in 18 days. We’re only up 24 points from the lows, and it took us 5 trading session to get here. i don’t even know if we can call that a bounce. more like a mere pause in the selling. if folks aren’t ready to pounce on stocks at these levels, perhaps they’re waiting for someting lower…
Hey RC
Its def found resistance.
See where we close. Mountain Dew !
3nd intraday triangle breakdown. hard
hah and by 3nd i meant 2nd. trying to come up with my own words. 2rd, 3nd, 4st.
the market is stuttering too, so you are in sync
Tony, certainly doesn’t look like a kick off to 1499 yet?
S&P doing their best to make sure that triangle breaks *down*. Just downgraded a bunch of Spanish banks. Why this should surprise anybody at this point is beyond me. Let’s see how much the mkt cares…
RC, Market has already priced in bankruptcies in four of the six largest spanish banks.
All the stocks are so triangular today.
Which way will it break… guesses.
sorry to have to disappoint you Blubrd…I am afraid i’ll just remain passive-aggressive for the rest of the day…plan ur day accordingly
It’s clear ascending triangle if you look at the last 4 days movement, but what’s missing is that we don’t have confirmation of the uptrend yet.
thanks Blubrd
if you look how steep that downtrend has become…it doesn’t take much to break out of it though… and on 60 min 20ema is now around 1316 (and moving up)…
oops..sorry fogot the chart…here it is http://screencast.com/t/8ERevNKW
sorry about that typo in my original 12:23 pm response, Blubrd!! – I’ve just re-read it it doesn’t make any sense, of course
– I meant the market was passive-aggressive, doing it’s’ one- step-forward-two-steps-back’ thing and drving everyone crazy …sorry again…I was trying to do too many things at the same time…
Tony, I was just looking at your longer term (weekly) Dow Transports count. Is that count not problematic at all for the broader Dow and SPX count?
RC,Somewhat, but a Primary B wave is just as good as a bull market in relative terms.
Tony, it looks to me we had 5 waves up from 12311. (12311-12385; 12336; 12539; 12419; 12531). Support at 12419 (wave 4).
My doubt: is it wave 1 up, wave “a” up or what also ??) What do you think ?
Mario, As long as the SPX can hold the 1313 pivot it looks good.
if it was wave “a” up..we should see wave “b” down soon
my question: how far (max) could go an expanded flat wave b down ??
+1
Morning folks, happy almost long weekend! I’m definitely ready for one, that’s for sure. After spending most of yesterday scrambling around on this UTX mega bond deal (which has been ripping, btw), I could use a little down time.
Interesting headline this morning – EU is considering letting regulators impose writedowns on senior unsecured bank bondholders as part of bailouts (to get taxpayers off the hook). Last time they taliked about a plan like that banks Euro banks got shut out of the market and spreads blew out. Let’s see how it goes this time around.
And Italian and Spanish bond spreads are wider this morning, about +12bp and +5bp, resp. Curious, considering (according to Monti) that Euro bonds are practically a done deal. ha!
Cheers to the hopeful new rally. (raising my diet mtn dew in toast). -rc
Breakfast of Champions !
Thanks RC
It was interesting that the “solar eclipse” of 5/20 brought about the low of 5/21.
Indeed – if the market cannot exceed 1329 by 6/4 – what does that say about
the wave pattern? For 6/4 is a Lunar Eclipse date…the confulence of Bressert cycle
lows of 5/21 should have been a strong lift off to much higher prices, above 1329.
or, maybe is the entire month of June a “base buidling event”…again, we are supposed
to be losing the Twist – Fed program…really would like to see, the SP500 advance to
the highs Tony has pointed out – - -
I would think it is better to be in the Rocky mountains than in the East especially this time of year. Everyone enjoy the long weekend. I’m sure jpm boys will.
it’s a real “hardship” in Hawaii…depending on the time of the year, you start either at 3:30 or 4:30 in the morning
Yeah but you’re done by 1pm and can hit the beach! Was in Maui couple years ago and loved the timing of it all…
GM all!
Hey Tommyboys, yup that was kind of nice… Aloha friday, anyone?
I see you don’t approve of my bearish doji ….lol…well candles are not always that reliable….in the age of robots..
What am I saying… When we were in Maui the market was done at 11AM ! 5 hours later than NY time…
good memory!…hey, ur mind was just travelling back to HI….nice!.. and now you’ve got ur 2 hrs extra for a round of golf as well Tommyboys…who says getting up at 4:00 am is cruel…
Is it possible that the world market will diverge. Their bull run has now ended, whereas the US markets continue on a 5 Wave up?
Good night everybody. I’m in the west for a few weeks. It’s terrible being in Mountain time for the markets. Much easier in the east.
The wave structure from the 1292 low is pointing to a powerful move in whichever direction we break out. This pattern of higher lows, and lower highs, is characteristic of the double inverted corrective wave pattern we saw on Tuesday into Wednesday.
The SPX again failed to move above the 1325 level I mentioned yesterday, although, again, it had many chances to do so. It made it up to 1324 on two seperate occasions this morning, only to be turned back on both tries. After moving back to 1310.50, just above our 1310-1307 resistance area, the market spiked higher, but only made it slightly above 1320. A break above this level is still possible however, and would indicate a breakout to the upside.
1315 looks like the level of support, with a move below 1311 possibly indicating a downside breakout.
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
Day 2 of rally attempt …
bearish doji candle in spx today…?
Long lower wick isn’t that bearish. Lower volume isn’t good either.
Good point, TS. Thanks for bringing it up. ..Today was really a pretty constructive day except that little candle thing…so I am hoping it’s enough for at least a lower open. Then some kind of a rally into the close….pre-holiday style (?)
Nice blog and charts, TS..thanks..
Nothing bearish about yesterday’s candle. In fact indicators curling up on the SP. Really looks like a rally in the offing over the coming several days…
Hello Tony,
Assuming intermediate 4 has concluded, what do you expect for intermediate 5? Wave 4 took 130 points from SPX and lasted more than seven weeks. Given the current conditions what time and price dimensions do you expect from wave 5?
Major 5 should take about 2-3 months, when confirmed, and reach possibly 1499
Thanks, Tony … for the sake of completeness, what is the major 5 confirmation level for SPX?
proprietary, sorry
No problem … I understand.
Hey,
Just wondering why this is proprietary compared to other information?
I’m not asking because I want to know…it’s just that you are so giving with your knowledge. What’s the difference between SPX confirmation and say, pivots?
Thanks Tony! I learn so much from the information you provide.
thanks Brent
Tony, with the negative divergence on the USD chart today, do you think this signals the end of Major c; or of Minor a of Int c of Major c? Or none of the above?
Alex, Possibly, most major currencies are also displaying divergences against the USD.
Thanks Tony! At the end of the day, what’s da “point” between friends?
Thank you Tony. Always with a dose of patience, in your analysis. Good.
Interesting factoid : While looking at the SP500, monthly bar chart; and applying
an RSI 14 indicator – Couldn’t help seeing that the last time the RSI 14, was above
the 70 percentile level, was in 2007. SP500 monthly highs in 2011, and 2012
thus far, have failed to reach, or exceed the 70 percentile level…not sure how
that helps get us to New SP500 all-time price highs though…Of course, it is – what it
is……Have a happy and safe holiday Tony….
cheers Bud!
Amazingly Equities held up well with a rising Dollar and falling Euro. If the Dollar pulls back tomorrow, we should get the signal you are waiting for.
Other than that it was a rather boring day.
Markets often turn around holidays
Thanks Tony !!!
The moment of reckoning is approching fast. A european Bazooka to launch the markets upwards will do it!!
Europe and Bazooka? Unlikely!
More like a Panzerschreck it seems to me… BTW used to be a much better anti-tank weapon than the Bazooka.
Panzerfaust?
Either one.
Thanks Tony !!
Thanks Tony !
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv12-221.pdf
Thanks Lee + very nice call on CL yesterday!
Thanks Tony, HD!
Lee, Thanks. Looks like more speculators are welcome in Crude and Gold.
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