SHORT TERM: oversold rally starts week, DOW +135
Overnight the Asian markets ended about unchanged. European markets opened lower but ended +0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1298. The SPX had closed at 1295 on friday. Within the first few minutes the SPX rose to 1301 and then pulled back to 1296 by 10:00. Then it started to rally. The rally continued all day, with only minor 3-4 point pullbacks, until the SPX hit 1316 in the closing hour. And, closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.60%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude gained $1.50, Gold added $1.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX jumps to the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance now at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum rose from a positive divergence to slightly overbought. Tomorrow, Existing home sales at 10:00.
The market opened slightly higher today, pulled back a bit in the opening half hour, then rallied to SPX 1316. This 24 point rally, from friday’s SPX 1292 low, is the best advance since the Minor wave C (1366-1292) decline began. And also, the best advance since the Intermediate wave C (1415-1292) decline began. This may be an early indication that the Major wave 4 downtrend has concluded.
We did note in the weekend report we could get a good bounce, then a slightly lower low into the upper 1280′s area to complete the downtrend. Today’s rally was more than high enough to make that scenario unlikely. Short term support is at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1319, 1324 and 1342. Short term momentum is rising. The short term OEW charts remain on a negative bias from SPX 1395, with the swing point now at 1329. Should the market get into the SPX 1330′s the downtrend is likely over. Keep in mind, the last three times, (2009, 2010 and 2011), the market was this oversold, on a medium term basis, the SPX rallied 90+ points in less than 2 weeks. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market
we gave em “THE BUSINESS”
If B back then C=A at gap in 1350′s
They deserved it H D They deserved it……
till the morrow gentle people
50% retrace on first wave
Ex-Greece PM, a technocrat, still has importance?
Could that of been 2 down ?
Seemed silly enough
Seemed silly enough =) Yes, imagine George Bush talking to the DJ newswire about … uh … anything important.Would he matter?
nice call H D !
Good lesson always fade the former Greek PM
Always fade the current and future Greek PMs as well…
RC
Touche
The best thing that can happen for the Eurozone and the Greek people is an exit. It’s like having a teenage kid that keeps ‘borrowing money’ you know he will never pay back.
yeah. you think you’re loaning them money, they think you’re loaning a Kleenex; they assume you just don’t want it back.
HWB oversold on pivot, a gift IMO.
pivot time Trece trece
yep, jittery market
Tony ….ur major fan. click on ur blogsite few times a day and luv ur work. God bless u !! U r the true “People’s Champion!!!”
I know from your previous comments that you have mentioned the uptrend/downtrend indicator to be proprietary, but not sure if you are able to share, a level on DJI/SPX that needs to be hit/closed above for an uptrend confirmation.
Also, it seems like when downtrends are confirmed, we are almost near the end of the move, so when the uptrend is confirmed, does that mean we are near the end of the up move, or maybe the uptrend confirmation works differently ???
Trying to smell what the Champ’s cooking!!
Appreciate if you can
Hi Rocky, Yes it is proprietary.But can state, we’ll need a really big rally before we get a confirmation.So far everything looks fine.If we get a WROC buy signal this week things will look even better.The trends quantify the waves.Sometimes markets have to move a great deal to confirm a trend … and then it’s almost over.Other times, markets only need a much smaller move to confirm … and then the trend still has a long way to go. It all depends on the wave structure, and what is required to confirm the trend.Keep in mind trend confirmations confirm waves, technicals suggest trend changes underway. cheers! ps. While I always liked the Rock, the Undertaker was always my favorite.
Thanks Tony…very kind!!
A big fan of the Undertaker here!! Never got enough of the chokeslam!!!
Wrestlemania 20-0 brutha!!!
Can’t wait for the WROC buy signal to tell me that “I need to know my role and buy the market” !!!
Walk the walk, and Talk the talk.
PHENOM FOREVAAAAAAAH!!!
Does anybody like the drybulks again?
wow 108 ! Dude what ya seeing in dry bulks ?
BTW you and I should open a managed futures account in the grains,
We can call it…Gone Fishin Futures
Gone Fishin Futures- where we give em “the business” Brilliant!
Thanks PB for the reply
Hey Tony 102 f coming ur way this holiday weekend !
Hope everyone is doing well. Lots o opportunities across the board.
See yas later !
we had 108* yesterday. Lovely.
Lee, No way 94F max on forecast
Must break levels for SPX to the upside:
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/05/22/spx-visual-10-day-1-minute-chart-upside-must-break-levels-for-spx/
Everyone nervous ? Have we become chronically afraid the bottom is gonna fall out ? I know I have! Actually worn out from worry and frustration. Market needs this kind of fuel to feed a bull.
Thanks for being real tommyboys !
3 waves down in FB today. Thinking it’ll hit $90 by August 12 th @ 12:27 PM CT
inverted HNS on the 60 min SPX targets 1330-1334
make that ESM
What’s new guys ?
I am amazed at the strength in European markets today – advised they are a train wreck and they rally – go figure
That was $9 right?
Hee Hee – now that would be a rout for sure
They laughed at the Wright brothers
In 1908 no one thought the Cubs had a chance either.
U know what I’m not laughing at ? My main man Berkmans injury…man am I a jinx or what ?
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Marion+IL+USIL0727:1:US this forecast sez ur baked this one sez ur 1/2 baked
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/marion-il/62959/daily-weather-forecast/332740
Either way it’s going to be dry and hot. The Wright brothers ? … David Wright is batting over 400.Guess the Cubs got cursed by the Black Sox
If they had priced FB at $26 none of this would have happened.But when they took everyone to the cleaners at $38 the piper called.And it wasn’t Roddy Piper either 
Well said Sir !
Tony, … how many waves are you counting from 1292 ?
As of 2:00 a 1 (1328) – 2 (1320 so far) only
Thanks Mario for asking
Thanks Tony for answering
I’ve been trying to figure out whether last week’s low in Gold was a head; or a right shoulder, within a large inverted H&S formation.
Initially I thought it was a right shoulder; but I now think it was probably the head.
There’ve been quite a number of inverted H&S formations in Gold.
They’re centred on the following lows:
1) Int ii in 2001
2) Int iv in 2003
3) Primary II in 2004
4) Major 2 in 2005
5) Int ii in 2006
6) Primary IV in 2008
7) Minor 2 in 2010
(No doubt there are others I’ve not spotted.)
The H&S pattern can be observed not only in the price chart, but also the weekly RSI chart.
Four of the H&S patterns have a 1-month RSI cycle at their centre, similar to the 6-week cycle we’ve just seen.
None of them had perfect symmetry: so it’s not surprising the current pattern is also asymmetric. (The 1-month cycle in Primary IV was actually slightly off-centre.)
The Primary IV low had double shoulders (in effect an H&S within an H&S), which I think is what we’re currently observing, with the September and December lows both forming left shoulders.
In that example the head bottomed well below the shoulders; but in the 2006 example the head and the left shoulder both shared the same low.
So I think we may have a cross between the two patterns this time, with double left shoulders sharing the same low as the head.
This would be confirmed if we get an approximate mirror-image symmetry centred around last week’s low.
So far it looks quite symmetrical, with today’s dip as a mini-right shoulder.
Thx Alex, I am a bit confused abt the count..could you pls post a chart showing all ?
OK, hopefully this works:
pic.twitter.com/GjD2ryya
Have marked the spans of the H&S patterns in red, 1 month cycles are outlined in yellow, and the green L and R markings indicate left and right shoulders.
Sorry for the crudeness, but it’s the best I can do on my iPad!
thanks Alex
Igor, do you still see g. miners retesting lows, or are you back in?
Hi blubrd,
I usually looking for trades with high odds in my favor (swing trades). I don’t see such opportunity in gold miners currently. Gold miners, technically, are still in a downtrend as gold. I’d like to see a character of the next downswing before placing a trade. I am not in the business of catching top or bottom, just looking for riding a part of a trend. Usually, after such a washout which occurred in gold miners, a price makes one more attempt to test lows. It can be a higher low or lower low depending on the existing market conditions. So, I am waiting. In case if I am wrong and gold and miners have made a significant bottom, I still have a plenty of time to jump on a bandwagon. I learned in a hard way not to be in rush when odds are 50/50. Cheers.
Looking at how the Dow is behaving, it’s likely that Dow will overlap the previous uptrend and the alternate count comes into picture.
your knowledge of technical analysis is very impressive. your analysis on Asian market, Dow industrial and Spx is perfect.
Welcome Mantra
EURUSD Time Ratio…138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/eurusd-time-ratio1382.html
By the way, my alt 3 suggests a wave 4 (simple zig zag) rebound …no more comments on this alt 3
It looks like 1292 was the end of the 5 wave sequence from 1422. It also looks like a 5 wave sequence was completed at (or very near), today’s high of 1316. A drop below 1314 would confirm the 1316 high, and if we can move above 1316 from there, it would seem that we are experiencing at the very least a more sustainable rally than we have seen for awhile, and possibly the beginning of a move to new highs. I still see 1320-1328 as the next resistance level should we get above 1316.
Thanks Tony,
Steve
Tony, any thoughts on AAPL? Thanks
up up and away?
I am hoping that if 1499 comes into play in the next 8 weeks then new highs can be seen?
Btw where exactly are we as far as wave count is concerned on AAPL? Sorry for a newbie question. Still trying to understand this thing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&st=2008-01-01&en=(today)&id=p26509735106&a=72753635&listNum=11
Downside 5th wave extensions complete in DOW SPX NASDAQ NDX (Bottom?)
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/05/21/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-5-22-12-possible-bottom-formations-completed-in-dow-spx-nasdaq-ndx/
Thanks Tony! Awaiting Uptrend confirmation. We have ignition, lift-off looks good, boosters ready to engage for separation of first stage…
Mike, A WROC would be nice.Have not had one since December.
I’m ready to WROC n’ Roll Tony!
Hey Tony..The only WROC I am aware of is the radio station in Rochester NY…
Would luv to find out what the “WROC” is cookin’?
Yo Adrian!
The People’s Elbow
Just a simpe line study
http://markettime.blogspot.ca/2012/05/s-futures-may-21-2012.html
thank you mr. ruler
thanks Piazzi.
Thanks Tony, I posted this comment on the friday’s update by mistake.
M1 says:
May 19, 2012 at 8:41 pm
Thanks Tony, great weekend update as usual.
My alt counts are suggesting:
alt 1. an important short term bounce next week and lasting 1-3 weeks.
alt 2. the selloff may continue until the end of the month, before we get the expected bounce.
alt 3. worse case. No comments.
Hope we get some clues early next week.
GL
Reply
M1 says:
May 19, 2012 at 8:48 pm
In my opinion, the rally from march 09 (spx 666) has already ended.
I wouldn’t bet alt 1 is unfolding … not yet. …but I covered my short positions with abt 50 dow points loss today.
GL
thanks Mario
Thanks Tony !
Tony, I think most of us were looking for a bounce and then a lower low to finish this downtrend. Although, today’s rally was pretty broad based and robust. This correction may very well be over.
agree prech…
Tony, how many waves are you counting from 1292 ?
Great stuff Tony – man what a day but we were due for a pop.
So is the 1499 call still in play for July?
Thank you
Nice way to start an uptrend.Let’s get an uptrend confirmation first.
Hee hee – Okay you got me
in 2010 major 2 of primary 1, 2011 prinmary 2 weekly shows +D on RSI, in 2011 primary 2 daily shows +D. daily chart dosen’t show 2010. its absent on both daily and weekly at 1291 low. of ocurse again its not must to have. in daily it looks more like RSI at 1101 and then we have lot of rallies and selloff and then finally 1074. but tony is right that there was 100+ points rally from 1101 too before 1074 again.
ASTRO Update Venus-Saturn,,,Reversal…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/astro-venus-saturnreversal.html