SHORT TERM: downtrend may be bottoming, DOW -33
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower losing 2.0%. Europe firmed after being lower as well losing 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Housing starts were reported higher: 717K vs 654K, but Building permits were lower: 715K vs 747K. Then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported higher: +1.1% vs 0.0%. The market opened higher at SPX 1335 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1331 yesterday. At 10:00 FED director Gibson’s senate testimony was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/gibson20120516a.htm. The market continued to rally until about 10:30 when the SPX hit 1342. Then it started to pullback. At 11:30 it closed the small gap up opening by hitting yesterday’s close at SPX 1331. A rally to SPX 1336 followed by noon, then a new downtrend low at 1327 by 1:30. Another rally attempt followed to SPX 1333 by 2:00. At that time the FOMC minutes were released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120516a.htm, and this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120516b.htm. The market then pulled back into the close ending at the low for the day: SPX 1325.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.70%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude lost $1.40, Gold slipped $3.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a positive divergence. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Philly FED and Leading indicators at 10:00. Also at 10:00 there is congressional testimony from FED director Alvarez.
The market started off the day to the upside. This fit with the short term abA-B-abC count, from SPX 1415, noted yesterday. Apparently yesterday’s SPX 1328 low did end wave ‘a’, and it appears wave ‘b’ ended at today’s 1342 high. Wave ‘c’, to complete the pattern, should be underway now. We do have a fibonacci price cluster right at SPX 1321/1322.
Technically, the SPX/DOW display a short term positive divergence, and are currently at the most oversold condition since August 2011. Plus the NDX/NAZ just broke through Intermediate wave iv support, today, and are also the most oversold since August 2011. This market appears very close to a downtrend low.
Short term support is at SPX 1322 and the OEW 1313 pivot. Short term resistance is at SPX 1342/1347 and the OEW 1363 pivot. The short term OEW charts remains with a negative bias from SPX 1395 with the swing point in the low 1350′s. Should the market rally to that level a new uptrend is likely underway. Best to your trading!
weekend 1422 top count is now becoming more possible as the 5 wave top from march 09…ouch
David,
I think the more likely bearish count from there is that the market finished a 5 up into April 2011 and we have since seen an irregular flat. A down into October 2011, B up into April 2012, and now C down which will end below 1075 and likely between 950 and 1050.
Wow – now that got my attention – lets all hope not
uggh. there is goes
1305 I am out and in cash. Let the pop commence. Still holding gold and silver 90% coins
If this is a different count, what do you think is the most likely count? eg, what would that call for on the downside? or if you’re going to talk about it in your update then no worries. thanks for all the help. cheers. -rc
RC, Only mentioned several counts.Actually there are three possibilities.One Ryan and Dave touched upon.The other two are more bullish.
Hopefully people are just liquidating to raise cash for facebook tomorrow.
I have not seen the indicators that low since last summer. The question is not if we are going to get the bounce but rather what will be the number this bounce is being initiated from and how it will implicate the further market move – weak bounce before next downturn to new lows or end of current correction? Very interesting, especially considering I went all long yesterday at the close
Hi Tony. Now that we moved through the 1313 pivot, what are your thoughts of likelihood of us heading down to 1293, based on gut feel or OEW? I recall reading where a break of that number might cause a reconsideration for the overall count.
Thank you.
Billy, The market is still within the 1313 pivot range: (1306-1320).However, and mentioned in today’s update, 1293 is the key number for alternate counts.
Thanks Tony. I forgot the + -! As you can tell, many are dying to get back in and go long.
Cheers and GL everyone.
that’s not a good sign Billy
BTW I am putting the big longs on. My own terms. Either way. GL
long johns in spring?
haha…thanks HD.
The Mayans…obviously not suitable for all investors(TM)… thanks everyone for all your great insights!
well, that chart i tossed up last weekend starting to look good… if your a bear that is… break of 1322 aint good, break of 1313 aint good… but… bulls may have a shot, tomorrow is fibonacci trading day 34 since the top, FB IPO, and also 4 days after Venus goes retrograde
Tony- given that the ECB totally dropped the ball and the Fed seems quiet, do you think this market can bounce on its own without the kick-start that we thought might come from central bankers? Do you think the FB IPO would be enough?
Facebook vs. Hellenic Republic in the title bout for primary market driving force
RC, Europe keeps sliding every day and we’re caught in the downdraft.Gold may be on to something today.Maybe a central bank announcement before the open … opex tomorrow.
Tony– that would be most interesting. I’ve been thinking someone’s grabbing all the cheap mining shares for a reason. May not be revealed right away but something’s afoot.
Tony – how are we looking? Getting compelled to go long into the close
one more day like today and we’re in trouble
Not too good, if we lose the 1313 pivot.
pivot range is 7pts, correct? we’re right there
One more note on timing in GLD. According to EWT the time when boundaries of a contracting triangle meet in the apex very often coincides with the market turning point. The apex of April’s triangle in GLD falls on the beginning of June. Something to keep in mind. Chart # 3 here:
http://stockcharts.com/public/1049070
Interesting perspective on things from a Greek citizen saying we may get a positive surprise in the June elections which could kick the can down the road for another 6-12 months.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/bruce-krasting/a-surprising-conversation-with-athens
SOLD…going cash again…no profits
No looses either, but something different is unfolding….
SP500 Time Ratio…123.6…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/sp500-time-ratio1236.html
what say you Astrofibo, buy buy buy??
well, you guys are gonna chuckle about this but I have to tell you b/c it’s a good one.. Tomorrow a around 6 am ET the Moon enters Taurus. So we’ll have the Moon, the Sun ,(lucky)Jupiter and Mercury all aligned in Taurus. Plus all of the 3 will be in a terrific trine to Mars and Pluto. It’s gonna be a terrific day..and dang it it’s good to be Zuckerberg (yes, you guessed it he’s a Taurus ). These guys just know how to “randomly” pick IPO dates (wink).. sorry about this digression..was just to good not to tell you guys..
)
and on Sunday we have a solar eclipse in Gemini, and those are game changes ..so anything can happen…expect the unexpected.. ..will have to see what Gerald has for us on that
should be: 4 of them, incl. Mercury…sorry, that’s kind of a rare alignment and very good for the Man-of-The Hour, of course… and as our excellent technicians here already know independently from their work will most likely be good for the market as well…so just take it for what it is – an interesting tidbit…that’s all it is…just funny how this worked out with the IPO date though
CB, Not surprising at all.The IPO date that is.
Taurus the Bull
The Mayans predicted this
hahaha HD
yes, Tony…the Bull = stubborn, patient, down-to-earth, good with money….hmm, really George Clooney(?)…lol…been reading about all the prosperity associated with Jupiter in Taurus since June 2011…kinda true…however it changes every 12 months, and it goes into Gemini on June 11-12, somewhere there, which is the sign of detriment for the big Jupe…so things might get a bit fragile after that…hmm
not laughing, human behavior drives markets… its what ELliott waves are all about we forget… not headlines or the FED. Also, according to Ray Merriman, when Venus goes retrograde often a major reversal is within 4-6 trading days… it went retro on Monday
ya ya, HD…but everything the Mayans knew about TLs, and apexes they learned from you…OMG, just how many centuries old are you HD
well, I don’t want to go into any pseudo science on Venus RX bc I am not trained in it, however, factually, to get any kind of insight one should look at the last time Venus was Rx in the same sign (gemini) which was May -June 2004. After being in retrograde motion it became stationary around the end of June (proceeded to turn direct) and it remained in Gemini til August 04 until it regained its regular speed. Retrograde planets have the most powerful effect when they are stationary. And the effects on a retrograde extend until the planet starts moving full speed again, which was in August of 2004 in our case. What did the market do then? It held up till the end of June (so the sentiment finally changed when Venus was stationary; i.e..most powerful) and then the market went down till sometime in August. So that’s the most comparable period of time to keep in mind if we want to compare apples to apples. Anyways, planets in Rx don’t really go into reverse, it’s just how they appear to from our vantage point – due to distance and their position in orbit – the net effect is that they affect our perceptions and behavior…
) I am gonna try to be quiet for the rest of the day…I promise
well, Lee was right – we have 150 posts already . Lee, can you come back and give us a new count..lolo
on the retrograde – a few corrections due to my typos (sorry)
line 8 should read: effects of a retrograde
line 16 should read: how they appear to us from our vantage point (on Earth that is).
and on the solar eclipse, previously : eclipses are game changers, not game changes…
whew, I feel better now ..cause it’s more readable now =)
Ride the bull!
Well, some things are looking good today. Gold darn it.
NAS Reversal…Fibo…61.8…Time Ratio…138.2…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/05/nas-reversalfibo618time-ratio1382.html
This is not a particular “technical analysis” and certainly not a wave analysis; but something I felt worthy of sharing…
There has been a lot of talk about the asymmetry in the treasury market; rates “have to” go up. However, if one looks to Japan; after the 10YR JGB went below 2%, they have been neither above that level nor negative. Since the JBG went below 2%; they have returned over 30%; while the NKY is negative. Images here:
http://nandanshah.wordpress.com/2012/05/17/perceived-asymmetry-is-not-necessarily-opportunity/
Something to think about in a world where people are concerned about the return OF their money as opposed to the return ON their money.
thanks Mauka … good point!
I suspect – a raising Dollar/Yen rate, or increase in the rate would
be Bullish for such Japanese companies like SNE…
I predict Tonys blog will break that 150 post level
And thats with this being my last post today even LOL
busy day mr. last post
Finally the end is in sight
Thanks Tony et al
Dave
89,63,89 watching round numbers for AAPL. 644 555 618 329
interesting, thanks HD
Thanks H D
R.I.P Donna Summers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQ05aaDQd_w
Tony this SPX showing amazing symmetry to last May. 1370-1260, 1422-1312.
You know you are right!
GL guys
Enjoy the volatility !
1311 and change. looks good for a low, for me…break above 1323 would
be better, VIX is holding strong though…..hmmm
If we get a 7+ point rally in the SPX at some point here, I would look for one more move down, and that should be it. Still have 1295 as my lower limit. We’ll see.
Steve
Looks like you may have been spot on – well done
S2 @ 1310.50 ESM
SPX 1313 pivot time !!
Not bad for gold, eh?
As mentioned yesterday, my cycle work indicates the likelihood of a Trading cycle low for gold in May, The question is whether such trading cycle low will coincide with intermediate as well as long-term cycle low or not
I think it will.
On Monday I suggested a time horizon of Wednesday for a significant trend change in Gold. That would give a timing ratio of 1.2 to 1.25 between each of the last 5 intermediate waves, with each wave longer than the last.
Since Monday Patrick’s switched to his alternate count, which has all 5 of these waves as part of the same Major wave: so the close timing relationships start to make a lot of sense.
We’ve certainly had some kind of trend change yesterday. Question is whether it’s short or medium term? The fact that it was right on my time horizon, and that both Gold and Silver bounced off strong long-term support levels suggests the latter.
This would also fit well with the precedent set by Primary III that I discussed at the weekend.
thanks Alex
Spoke too soon on the bounce! This market looks abysmal. Would have expected a little more dip buying here at this point
Nice Trade Igor !
Thanks Lee. Got lucky with timing.
Igor – Yes – very nice trade. I still think the USD will stay elevated and the low will not hold…..We will see in the fullness of time. Charlie
Thank you Charlie, as to GLD, I think we are seeing something similar to the mid-December bounce after a steep fall with one more decline following . imho.
Hey Igor
Luck didnt make u pull the trigger. Ur my gold guy here.
gracias
Igor, are you looking for another low in Gold so we get a positive divergence on the daily chart? I note we didn’t get one at the September low last year: so we may not need one here.
Hi Alex,
I am not looking for +D to mark a bottom. It’s just the character of the last decline (fast and relatively steep) make me think that it was the second phase (Panic Phase according to Edwards and Magee) of the downtrend since March. I think that after recovery we will see the third stage – discouraged selling. It may make a new low (as in December) or not (as in October). In EW terms we are now in wave 4 (or 1) with wave 5 (or 2) to follow. Again, it’s just my thinking on the price behavior observations. V-bottoms are seldom and GLD has very strong resistance at 156. Thank you for cycle observations.
Tony, if you think that this picture is inappropriate, feel free to delete it. Thank you.
done
Thanks Igor.
I favour the inverted H&S pattern because of the precedent set in Primary III.
The December low would form the head, with the September low as the left shoulder, and yesterday’s low as the right shoulder.
I see the 1604 low in October 2011 as corresponding to the 1613 low in April 2012, and yesterday’s low corresponding to the September low of 1535.
Also there was quite a lot of timing symmetry around that 1562 low in December: 5 day downtrend leading into it, followed by a 5 day uptrend, then another 5 day downtrend to the ultimate low.
To find the same symmetry here it seems to me we would need to uptrend for 12 days, which doesn’t seem to favour another test of the low.
Sold my longs in GDXJ from yesterday here.
haha I expected a bounce but not so fast and steep. Still thinking that it is not a true reversal yet. Should test lows one more time.
Russell 2000 overlapped its October 2011 high at 769. A precursor to the same in the SPX? Not seeing much positive in the way of market internals either aside from the fact that the market is extremely oversold and still can’t bounce more than 13 points.
The buy order triggered at 12550…I am in….Now 150% long from 12550
But honestly I am surprised the market fell down to 12519… we shall see
GL guys
By the way, Stop loss 75 points below ..at 12475….and the count will be downgrading… wave 3 may be unfolding
1321.75 = 76.40% ESM pit low/high
IMO watch these intradays for a clue
SPX EMA @ 1313
Trade well my friends
Thank you Lee
Congrats gold bugs. *1530. 1574 is 1.618 ext long from lows. GL I am on to the next.
this is the kind of bounce move i’ve been waiting to see. if we can close above 1330 i think things will be looking pretty good
1315 is very close to the OEW low/pivot – 1313. I agree.
does look like, at min. one more new low though…..
Lee…My bottom in es got spanked. My silver bottom call yesterday looks good as I see Patrick has a ii posted.
herringjd1
It shall be called the herringjd1 bottom in Silver !
Thanks H !
Looks like Gold is finally starting to believe the QE3 trade here.
Philly Fed and Leading Indicators are a problem
For what it’s worth, there doesn’t seem to be much account selling at wider levels right now. Dealers aren’t willing to bid on paper outright, but accounts are really sellers here either. Definitely no running for the exits… yet.
S2 = 1310.50 ESM
S1 = 1316.50
PP= 1328.00
CL
R1 83.87
PP 93.07
S1 91.99 CLM
R1 93.87 * CLM
Thanks Lee
U bet Tony
Pivot Time …been a while
1313
Tony,
Could this hint to QE3 by Feds be the catalyst for ending 4, and beginning of rebound of PM? We may have ended the slide yesterday?
http://www.thedailycrux.com/Article/40024/Inflation
Nothing new, of course QE 3 is still on the table.It was never taken off.
Sorry, I just saw this was earlier news. But yesterday driving I heard news on the radio about two feds commenting positively possibility of qe3. Or am I hallucinating?
No, not at all.The same news gets recycled as new news.
Morn all
Thanks R C
Hey C B
They love those Silver Eagles still !
Different day same goal .
Get some guys !
ltr
Lee, gotcha ya, thank you very much!
Tommyboys, thanks for the momemtum/sentiment details. Good stuff. Appreciate it.
Igor, HD – great work on gold you guys. And I am loving your symmetry in $SPX HD cause oh man if we it find support somewhere around here then we would be setting up a pretty massive inverted H+S on the weekly chart, right? …well, whatever happens just be sure to wear a nice “hoodie” tomorrow you guys..it’s the new status symbol, right ..
Morning all,
Well, looks like today we might get that chance at sub 1320 levels. Though, despite how bad Europe looks this morning, a number of the other ‘risk off’ indicators don’t seem to be quite as negative. The IG CDX is about +1.5bp wider – far from disaster. June Crude and July Copper are both green. As well as most soft commodities. Is gold actually catching a safety bid here?!
Bank/fin paper is, not surprisingly, fairing the worst. Anywhere from +5-15bp wider on the morning. So the ECB won’t lend to bad Greek banks? I guess that’s a surprise.
Tony, where’s your line in the sand on the current count? 1313 pivot?
Thanks RC
RC … 1293
I agree with Tony, that we are very close to this downtrend low, if we aren’t already there. Ideally I would also like to see the SPX move down towards 1321-1322(1319 would actually satisfy my model), but I think it is quite possible we won’t get there for awhile. The market is now below 1325, which was the upper limit of my target range from 1415. With my current count a move above 1331 would confirm this as the downtrend low, with a rally to follow. I still think this is wave 3 from 1422, and expect another move to downside before this is completely over. A strong rally from this point would be the most positive scenario, while a short rally and break of today’s lows would suggest much lower prices ahead.
I’d also like to join the chorus of kudos to everyone for all the great posts lately, A lot of great information and ideas from everyone. Thank you.
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
thanks Steve
Agreed – great learning environment as well for the newbies like me.
Tony I was looking back through your archives and it is unreal the similarities in today’s markets to your 23 July 2011 posting – and we are now almost exactly at the same spot in price – very interesting.
Thank you to you and all the other great posters here and a shout out to Lee for keeping me chuckling (loved the John Travolta line for “rumor’s” yesterday – I was in tears
Great work, Steve. Thanks
Thanks Steve
BTW thats an awesome name,
Tony, take a look at this chart
http://scharts.co/MmiqWw
wave 5 ending at 12535 (my line in the sand) ….amazing !! …so if we get a rebound, it may be only that…a rebound !! ..and not the expected major 4.
Mario, Our 10 min chart is giving off a count like that.But the April decline also gave off a five on the way down.5-3-5 so we look okay.
Thx Tony, I feel the numbers are quite correct and I honestly don’t see the market falling without a rebount at the 38.2% fib (DOW) of the 11231 – 13338 range.
But, I also feel the “market” may go through the weekend at abt that level. Anyway, I am placing a buy order at 11550 for today. 75 points stop loss. I may repeat the plan tomorrow.
GL
hi tony and blog mates,
Here is the wave count on Dow jones. http://niftyewa.in/2012/05/17/dow-jones-elliott-wave-analysis/. In line with Tony’s view
thanks Vikram
Loving all the bearishness. Sentiment is just where we want it for the next explosion higher. I find it truly fascinating how this works over and over and over and over again. I’d swear its all orchestrated but that would be paranoid. Greece, the fear dujour, will either default and get it over with or most likely remain IN the Eurozone and on the Euro. Either way its been well advertised for more than three years (read – “priced in”). The market will turn well before either. Can’t believe how the bearish blogs and tweets have all resurfaced with a vengeance. Many calling for utter chaos, “panic and hysteria in the markets this Summer” the likes of which will make 2008-09 feel like a benign dress rehearsal. Even previous bulls have caved to the bearish media frenzy. Tony has nailed this one likely within 10 SP points or better for the corrective 4. Most indicators are now very well set to propel the bull to new highs and likely in short order. Many are actually at further extremes than in October!! Tony’s target of SP 1499ish at some point in July will prove super prescient as usual. Sell in May and go away ain’t gonna get it this year. Last two years it worked perfectly. I know professionals that have gone ahead and sold the first week of May based on the adage and recent history vowing not to buy back until Sept/Oct – they will regret it. Everyone’s bearish and questioning even AAPL selling it back to the 13 PE area. This is an election year with a Democrat incumbent that just happens to be following two recent successful “sell in May” years. Check the history with regard to this set up. This year May is designed to fool as many bulls and bears alike into selling and shorting the most – just prior to launching the next bull leg catching the most offguard. Buckle up. Kudos on your work Tony!
Loving your commentary!
Great summary. Total agreement. Wish I had found this blog earlier since EW is more of a fascination with me. Kudos to Tony and the posters on this blog for their insights.
interesting points Tommyboys. Thanks. re: indicators: “Many are actually at further extremes than in October!!”– just curious which ones you’re watching and which ones you find most reliable if you could let us know please. thanks.
One of my favorites is the RSI – its at an extreme right now. Stochastics are pegged at zero although I don’t have loads of faith in these. Someone mentioned that puts are something like 4X calls right here – this is usually a good one. My favorite though is sentiment – and based on AAII this week we’ve got about 23% bulls and 46% bears – bullish!
Great post! Thanks.
Steve
Nice post Tommy
Mighty fine! If it breaks 1292 and we assume we are in ii of 3 – is there a minimum distance that ii would need to travel or could it bottom, say, at 1288?
unknown at this point
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
Interesting. A ii, should it eventuate, will have retraced 50% at 1291 and 61.8% at 1260, so probability wise, if 1292 breaks we *should” be very close to the low anyway.
even commodities bid tonight……that a bit different as of late.
U.S. Mint American Eagle and Buffalo Bullion Coin Sales
Daily Gains May Gains YTD 2012
American Gold Eagle Coins (1 oz.) 1,500 35,500 216,500
American Gold Eagle Coins (1/2 oz.) 0 0 51,000
American Gold Eagle Coins (1/4 oz.) 0 0 42,000
American Gold Eagle Coins (1/10 oz.) 0 5,000 140,000
American Gold Buffalo Coin (1 oz.) 4,000 5,500 61,000
American Silver Eagle Coins 275,000 1,410,000 13,069,000
thanks Lee! so, it seems like there is some strength in those numbers(?)…what would your advice be now Lee? Are cool kids starting to buy those again?
Hi Tony, given W4 can’t overlap W1 which peaked at 1293, if it did, what would the W1 then be re-labelled as, and what would the current wave be?
thanks, Peter
Novice question. If we drop through 1292 then W4 has gone through W1, which it can’t do. What would the W1 high then be relabeled as? And what wave we would then be in now?
thanks, Peter
Peter, Simple question, complicated answer.Considering the look of many of the foreign markets.We would then have a 1-2-i-ii, or worse, an abc and heading down to last years lows.Wave 4′s are usually important junctures.
So, if a 1-2-i-ii, you are saying your current preferred 1 and 2 would remain, and 3 would become i? (so we would then be in ii of 3? – which would imply much higher prices once we bottom)
and if its an abc, then primary 11 changes to a and 3 to b?
that’s it!
Hi Tony,
Thank you yet again for all you share here with us.
-breakoutpullback
Tony i have a quick question.. do you ever use the Elliot wave oscillator to determine completion of waves.. does it work?
Sai
Sai, Actually have never tried it.
Thanks for the update Tony! I always try to remember the last thing you stated to to D. Banister (who I enjoy reading also): “Remember, we are never right until the market says we are. We are only dealing with probabilities.”
Do you ever try to assign percentage (%) probabilities to a particular (major?) direction. As an example: What would be the probability that 1313 to 1322 (~1318) would end this Downturn/Correction? I don’t know whether OEW tries to answer this or if it’s significant enough to calculate daily, weekly, etc. It’s been a lingering question though.
Hi Mike, Unfortunately we have not done that kind of probability analysis.
Thanks Tony! IMO the low is “probably” in now.
You know my line in the sand is the DOW at 12535. If it fails I will downgrading the count. This may not be wave c, but wave 3 down.
GL
Nice MA 34! 1422-1357 = 65 *1.382 =90 -1415= 1325
Nice Fibo’s HD
abt 12528 for the Dow…. I can accept that.
Still wondering when we will see that 4 years cycle
M1 says:
March 31, 2012 at 9:11 pm
A look at cycles:
1. http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2012/03/four-year-cycle-approaching-crest.html
2. OLD DOW
1932 low – 1938 low = 6 years
1938 low – 1942 low = 4 years
NDX
2002 low – 2008 low = 6 years
2008 low – ?
Mario, The 4 year cycle low came in on time in July 2010.Next low is scheduled for 2014.It does not always bottom with the stock market.In fact, when it goes out of sync it usually last for three cycles.2006 and 2010 were both out of sync .
…and what abt the tecnology cycle ? 2012 ?
Scheduled to bottom likely in Q3.Techs likely to underperform until it does.
You know I have been saying for quite a while that it looked to me we were at an inflection point. Nothing has changed after more than two months. I think it is now at crucial moment. (DJI IS AT ABT FEB LOWS – ALERT).
M1 says:
March 2, 2012 at 5:06 pm
The inflection point may last longer than expected and the market may take more than one month to resolve which way it will go medium term.
I will keep neutral and I will turn bearish if I see a brake of the lows of february. Waiting for any clue to turn bullish again.
Same charts:
The one suggesting NDX going up to 3100-3150 and spx up to 1630…
1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03475453942&a=258568990
The bearish charts. Both suggesting an important selloff may unfold in the coming months
1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=M&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90338799719&a=258089896
2. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX:$USD&p=M&yr=20&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20300766759&a=258090209
= Inflection point.
Good Work – Thank you, Tony…Bud
Thanks Tony. The chart I did over last weekend comes into play if we break 1322 hard, so Im hoping we dont… if so, I could argue we topped at 1422 and the lower levels will be alot lower than we’d like. Here is hoping 1322 area does in fact hold and wave 5 up does materialize.
The 1313 pivot was the original projection David.Remember normal corrections during this bull market have been about 100 SPX points.We’re right there.Now all we have to do is remain Normal
Interesting times.
http://chart.ly/fj6x9ga chart i posted up last weekend on stocktwits… still must be respected for sure… because the chart here is before the last few days of selling. At any rate… we will soon find out.
cheers David
Cheers to you tony! great work as always…sorry if I was a pain in the arse recently. It took me 2 years to figure out what you meant by confirmed uptrend or downtrend, lol. One more UPDATED LINK for everyone to watch… this is ominous if you take out the Elliott waves…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p80837960335
David, The uptrends and downtrends are The Waves.Confirmations can mean different things at different times.What this market needs is a WROC next week.We have not had one since the double in December.They suggest an uptrend is unfolding.Remember, we are never right until the market says we are. We are only dealing with probabilities.
in your weekly chart your last blue arrow is in week of 1249 after around 100 points correction .. after that macd remained on sell , histo remained negative and spx went to 1370 and then done. Looks much similar at this blue arrow. price is come around 100 points, macd sell, histo negative.. can it again to 1435 or so and then done.
Thanks Tony
Enjoy the day !
SPX filled the gap from Feb 3rd 2012 today @ 1325
That’s the day we got the Jan unemployment # and took off eh ?
never chase
thanks Tony. In addition to being ‘somewhat’ oversold..the AAII berish sentimet was at 42.60 (lowest since sep ’11) most recently and put/call ratio highest since oct ’11…wow, spooky and it’s getting ‘worser and worser’.. Tony can you call the Fed. and inquire what it is that they want, when ur bored sometime.. have a great afternoon all !
Thanks C B !
Hey many thanks to you, Lee! U were super-charged today, really great and even made me chuckle a few times ..And yes today we can add a few more “Lee classics” (TM) to our collection….”Pure Lee – accept no imitations”
) have a good 1 Lee!
thanks CB,Extremely negative sentiment for only a 7% correction.Europe certainly has something to do with that.Industrial production was up 1.1% last month!The DOW, in recent months, would have been up 200+ points. Btw, the FED is expecting trouble ahead.They have expanded all their FOMC meetings to two days into the end of 2013.With a press conference every other meeting, starting with June.Has Ben go the Bulls back?
Tony, thanks! And from the monetary base chart you showed us recently, the rascals don’t seem too concerned about increasing it, do they?…which is it actually: the Fed follows the market or it makes the market…
CB, The economy looks okay and PCE data is still positive.Nothing for the FED to do at this time, except with housing.
thanks Tony. U are doing an amazing job of tracking these markets!