SHORT TERM: consolidation day with lower low, DOW -63
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher gaining 0.2%. Europe opened higher but ended lower losing 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight then reversed heading into the open. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported lower: +0.1% vs +0.8%, the CPI was reported lower: 0.0% vs +0.3%, but the NY FED was reported higher: 17.1 vs 6.6. The market opened relatively flat, just one point under yesterday’s SPX 1338 close. Then it tried to rally. Right after the open FED governor Duke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20120515a.htm. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported lower +0.3% vs +0.6%, but the NAHB index was reported higher 29 vs 25. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 1344 and began to pullback. The pullback ended with a new downtrend low at SPX 1336 at 11:00, and the market tried to rally again. Around noon the SPX hit 1345 and began to pullback. The pullback worked its way lower, all afternoon, to a new downtrend low at SPX 1328 by 3:30. a bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 1331.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude dropped $1.50, Gold fell $16.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a positive divergence. Tomorrow, Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, then the FOMC minutes at 2:00.
The market traded higher overnight, opened flat, but still tried to rally before rolling over late in the day to a new downtrend low at SPX 1328. After hitting SPX 1336 the market displayed a slight positive divergence, but could only rally 9 points and hit neutral momentum before heading lower. The market, however, does appear to be working its way toward the fibonacci price cluster at SPX 1321/1322.
When we counted Minor A of this decline, (SPX 1415-1343), we observed an abA-B-abC pattern. After the rally last week to SPX 1366, Minor B, we are now again observing a similar pattern. From SPX 1366 we can count 1337-1347-1336 for the abA, then a B at 1345 today. Now this late decline could be ‘a’ of the last abC wave. The next 8+ rally would be ‘b’, and then the next decline would end C and the entire pattern. Short term support is at SPX 1322 and the 1313 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1337 and 1347. Short term momentum is still displaying a positive divergence. A rally to the OEW 1363 pivot would suggest the correction has ended. Best to your trading!
SPX closes right on Tonys 60 min RSI TL
Also – it closed within .04 of his 1324.84 in the 34 EMA on his weekly – spooky
Leonardo Filius Bonacci
Thanks pbjnj123
good stuff.
Hey Tony
Even Tim Seymour from Fast Money is bearish now.
“yesterday said to watch US 5yr as a turn for risk assets; today 2-10′s breaks support which is NOT a good sign for equities”
Hes no non sense … should be interesting
Lee, Know who he is, but have not followed him at all.Getting close to make it or break it time.
80% retrace on ES Globex range
Cheap short 1320*
Thats cheap long
Not that theres any reason to get long (hedge)
But if it goes I called it (hedge)
GL guys the algos say not yet..see yas at the close
this correction has more selling strength than i would have expected at this point
Kinda what I was saying earlier today RC. Internals aren’t really improving despite the fact that we are extremely oversold and sentiment should be supporting a bottom. When you are very oversold two things can happen:
1. Strong Rebound and Bottom
2. Crack Big
#2 is looking increasingly likely if 1293 doesn’t hold and the SPX/CCI don’t bottom by the close on Monday.
Ryan – might I ask what the importance of Monday is?
Thank you in advance
Markets rarely bottom on Friday so that leaves Thursday or Monday. In addition, in terms of time the internal indicators I am watching need to turn very soon or this sell off will intensify. Thus, 3 more trading days seem like the max amount of time that can be allowed.
Thanks Ryan
Ah – now I understand – got to mark that one down in my lesson book – still learning.
Thank you very much.
Silver bottom flushed
No sugar from the fed
Fed commentary to the rescue
Hey RC
Its a mess in ESM I dont where its going
If that was a 5 wave move up in ESM from Globex low this could get interesting
Everything is getting “the business” might be a good time to step aside.
H D
good advise..look at CL
It’s 5 oclock somewhere. U guys have a g1.
So 1341-1331 10 points- weird?
Lee, what’s the grains talk?
Hey H D
I know that 3 x bottoms never hold but…We just had one in ZCN this week and ZW made a higher high this week
What do u think ? Head fake ? Or do Karate in the garage !
Thats ZW made a higher low…lil bit of difference
X wave! IDK Lot’s of little candles seem to lead to 1 big candle though.
Thanks H D !
I figured it was an X but it could of been a Y
Maybe I’m a lil too eager with ZC
Lee, on the “3 x bottoms never hold” front – do you have any thoughts about Gold, as it’s heading down to touch the 1520-1530 region for the third time?
use stops ..try hard to have patience and look for throw overs for entries.
Almost forgot wear clean underwear
ESM unchanged.. algos work both sides of the street
1320*
Wow – BAC 4% so far today – up 2 – 0 – down 2 – yikes.
Talk about an outside day
Thats good trading !
Tony,
I’m beginning to get warning signs on my internal indicators and I would say that if the equity market/$CCI don’t bottom by the close on Monday or we see an overlap of 1293 on the SPX it would seem that something more sinister is at work. What would it take to bring back your alternate irregular flat which would assume that this entire leg up from October is a B wave and that C down is on the way? You did say (if I recall correctly) that if Primary II bottomed in October it would be exceptionally short in terms of time and I have to agree.
Ryan, Continue to see lots of deterioration in the foreign markets.The US has been one of the few bright spots.It looks like an overlap of SPX 1293 would be a big problem.
Not sure if you guys saw, but ECB said about 10 mins ago they weren’t changing policy stance.
ECB Said to Stick to Current Policy Stance as Tools Reviewed
ECB Said to Stick to complete policy review by June or July
sounds like we’re free to collapse for another month. lovely
“… the bank sees current market tensions as a way of focusing politicians’ minds on reform efforts.”
first admission i’ve seen that central bankers *like* having the market collapse, in order to put a fire under politicians. of course, the comment isn’t official/on the record
Review?Market is on its own still
yeah. doesn’t feel good to me at all.
as for gold as money and as saving,
there is an interesting article here
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/an-adult-approach-%E2%80%93-ii-defining-relative-real-value/
There is a graph with projected path for Monetary Base (dotted blue line) and US Bank Assets (dotted red line)
The questions are:
1. will it go as the authors are projecting?
2. what if the authors are too conservative and the blue dotted line crosses the red dotted line to the upside
answer the two for yourself and you shall be able to decide what to do with your money and perhaps stay away from all news and commentary (like I usually do)
Thanks piazzy.
I like quote of the day from that site:
“A billion here and a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” —Everett Dirksen
I just can’t help but wonder what is really real about the so-called “reality” of many billions as “real money”
perhaps semantics
ECB Stops Monetary Policy Operations to Some Greek Banks:Reuters
that might be it
Thanks R C
Is that what u were hearing Tony ?
No, had not heard a thing
One step closer to Drachma?
not sure what just smacked us down. haven’t seen/heard anything yet. ECB announcement due right now?
Thanks all guys, good info lately.
Bought some GDXJ on the open for oversold bounce, 1-2 day trade.
GLD should rebound or consolidate here for 1-2 days on the 60-min chart.
Thanks Igor !
Thx Igor. I’m working this move too. The 1550 is my break point for a move to HWB. JMHO. http://flic.kr/p/bZ6Lv7
Nice channel HD. GC didn’t touch the lower boundary on the latest downswing – momentum slowdown.
Ya- I agree.
Let’s talk about Grains, baby
Let’s talk about you and me
Let’s talk about all the good things
And the bad things that may be
Hey Lee, What u seeing?
ab in… now time for C… most likely course seems like a flat/meandering day today, then a gap down open tomorrow to 1322′ish area, then we’re clear. at least, that’s how my little pea brain is playing it.
Credit is about flat to slightly better today, fyi. Some decent sound bites out of the likes of GE (GECC) and DE this morning. Financials are -3bp to +1bp, so pretty unch’d. Portugal is blowing out, +27bp on 10yr. Italy and Spain are a little better, however, at -3bp and -4bp, respectively.
Good updates lately Tony, and you’ve been on the money. Lee, thanks for the ES context. cheers. -rc
thanks RC for the update
Thank you R C for all you do !
Rumors anyone?
Still just the John Travolta ones Tony
I havent heard any “Grease” noise
okay thanks
What are u hearing Tony ?
BTW some fine additions posting here @ Tonys blog
Trade well my friends
Agree!
Morn ya’ll !
Globex low ESM 1320.75 = SPX 1323 ish
S1 = 1320.25 BIG SUPPORT AREA
CL S2 = 91.86 Retail traders will be back above $120
thanks Lee … very useful info
Right back at ya Tony !
You have been El Fuego in SPX without ever spiking the football
too old to spike
BTW I think u nailed residential/commercial real estate also.
mucho gracias
We nailed, we both were buying in 2011.
“too old to spike ”
Great work! I have gone back to the EW motive wave as a basis for mine.
This makes corrections so much easier because you can put probabilities to it.
In addition this has allowed me to predictably use pitchforks!
Like you I want to share knowledge and hope you look at my work and if you find it helpful please feel free to use any of it.
Thanks Marc,Nice site, and welcome.
Howdy Marc Thanks
looks like we should get that b of abC at the open. was it art cashin who said the market never bottoms on a wednesday…?
gotta love Art!
Gold has been an underperforming asset for a long time
gold miners have been underperforming gold for a long time
people chose how they play and they pay (or gain) the price if they are wrong and quite deservedly so
there is trading an asset and there is saving in an asset.
As for trading, whoever trades an underperforming asset is basically trying to pick a mid to long-term shift not only in price but also in broader market dynamics — it’s bottom or top picking not only in price but also in relative performance
That said, my cycle work indicates the likelihood of a Trading cycle low for gold in May, The question is whether such trading cycle low will coincide with intermediate as well as long-term cycle low or not
I personally have had no interest in trading the long side of gold since the last vertical run. I have been saying that this would be a rocky year for those who might want to trade gold. That is just what is supposed to happen after vertical runs — too many bugs to spray
BUT, it may now be worth it to look for signs of a bottom or a trigger for a trading cycle low and then, I’ll see, if it has the likelihood of having coincided with a more dominant cycle low
thanks Piazzi
Colin Twiggs latest says;
The S&P 500 broke support at 1340 to confirm the correction. Initial target is 1300. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero confirms medium-term selling pressure signaled by an earlier bearish divergence. Recovery above 1360 is most unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.
A similar 21-day Twiggs Money Flow signal on the Nasdaq 100 warns of medium-term selling pressure. Retracement respected resistance at 2630, confirming a correction. Initial target is 2500*.
Index was crawling the lower part of the 1340-1360 pivotal area for a few sessions. Crawling and hanging to support in a downtrend is usually not very good technically. Now it’s broken below. I have been thinking that a break of 1340-1360 would be needed to perhaps pressure money printers to think about printing. Best thing is continued drop into 1280-1300. It would be really good if index could bounce soon but get knocked back and rejected by 1340-1360 and then head to 1280-1300. That, IMHO, could put pressure on liquidity providers that stock market may not have enough liquidity to sustain its own weight let alone rally to infinity and beyond
Hi Tony: Some extremes in STORMM signals today for the USD and Gold suggest we’re in store for further price erosion in equities, gold, and commodities while the risk off trade continues into the USD and Treasuries (some rare alignments for both). Suggests more Greek drama just around the corner to take the SP 500 to 1250-1295 before its over? Cheers, Greg
Discussion and charts at http://hgpolites3.wordpress.com/
thanks Greg
Matches w Tony…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94538683567&a=77318636&r=1337133473214&cmd=print
Target probably closer to $26…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p66719800421&a=129523122&r=1337133664251&cmd=print
thx Todd
As I have said in the past, my counts are quite different tham EW, but at major turning points they seemingly coincide. I see this wave playing out much as Tony has already described, so maybe we are near a bottom.
Steve
http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/
Still watching 1530 but already have my early signal on. Should 1545 go we can start a retrace. IMnSHO
they even gave a nice little reverse HNS pattern right on 1530. 1550 is .618 prolly the first littlle abc back is done. GL
Ending diagonal bottom formation forming in DOW SPX NASDAQ NDX?
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/05/15/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-5-16-12-ending-diagonal-bottom-formations-in-the-dow-spx-nasdaq-ndx/
Regardless of what price the Facebook IPO goes public at on Friday, do ya think it will pop or flop by the close? What do you think the % gain or decline will be? IMO there is so much pent up demand it may close up 20-30% from the offering price.
Plenty of hoopla surrounding FB.Probably a pop.Lesser companies have done quite well the first day.
Is there anything more sinister at work here ? A bearish alt by chance ?
Todd, Not yet
Tony, don’t you think that even abC may be done intra day? A move from B at 1345 to 1335 and then back to 1345 and then a late day decline to 1330.
Timmy … too short of a wave for what we’re counting
Is “the” BOTTOM in? Time to go up? Bottoms up now? Need a drink? Bottoms up!
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1HXtpdZBVE&w=960&h=720%5D
Thanks Tony!
Thanks Tony. It looks the market chose a different way to finish the downtrend structure. Your abC count may be unfolding. It is getting more clear, but we haven’t seen the end yet.
However, the NAZ broke its strong support at 2900 and the 38.2% fib retrac is not far below. A large gap down tomorrow may leave the market in serious danger. 12535 is my line in the sand.
GL
thanks Tony. Is there any reason to think that expanding triangle you had in mind some time ago is still in effect?
CB, Dropped that some time ago.
thanks Tony. Yes I remember that. I must be thinking about a different set of lows /1388 and 1357/
Thank you Tony and the crew – cheers
Thanks Tony !
Friday is Fibonacci 34 trading days from the 1422 highs on SP 500. That rally from 1158 to 1422 was 89 trading days for Major 3. So… between that and various other fibs in here… could e interesting set up for FB IPO. Staying long SVVC which was up another 4.4% today… best to all
Hi David,
Let’s say Facebook pops 50%….what kind of pop are you looking for in SVVC. Would you stay super long with this position?
Good stuff, Tony. Looking forward to the Facebook hype at the end of this week. Should keep things interesting.